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At one point, a next rally leg will most likely come, and it should be very strong.
But until 7.22 $ is cleared to the upside, there remains a neutral trading range down to 4.64 $. This means that there remains a risk for another short term sell off, before the mid term up trend continues.
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Analysis based on the MtGox orderbook is worthless. 310k coins traded in 24hr and the price is sitting at a point that looked 40k coins away 24hr ago.
MtGox order book does not represent all of the MtGox demand, MtGox demand doesn't represent all formal market demand and formal markets don't represent all fiat based demand, and fiat demand is not the only demand for coins.
There are billions of people, millions who have heard of bitcoin maybe once and thousands who have figured it out. Demand is both strong and an insanely small fraction of it's potential.
+1 |
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So let's hear some guesses for the price on
1. Jan 25
2. Feb 1
3. Mar 1
I don't do this very often, because I don't see much merit in it, but here goes... 1. Jan 25: $6.50 2. Feb 1: $7.20 3. Mar 1: $9.70 BTW I think that will take over $4M. |
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it is important to remain agile in technical analysis.
once we saw that the triangle interpretation was not what the marked respected, we issued a short term alert, on time before the drop.
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One justification for the sell-off seems to be that "The Good Wife on that TV isn't going to do anything" which, honestly I thought was going to be true. I had pulled my investments earlier for that reason expecting a massive disappointment and way over-hyped speculation.
But then I saw the episode.
I didn't count exactly, but the word "bitcoin" was said something like 40 times. The show featured a full-on introduction video to what bitcoin is, all while portraying a bitcoin as something cool that forward-thinking young interracial couples know about.
In addition, the word bitcoin was spread far and wide into a show with a high-brow target audience. The word bitcoin graced the front page of the New York Times again last night. Many articles with the word "Bitcoin" directly in the title have spread to newspapers and reviews, Huffington Post TV, for example. Jim Cramer spoke the word "bitcoin" and said it was not a "currency." All of this happened because of the show.
Up until now, many people may have heard about bitcoin, but just last night and today, a "blanket promotional advertising campaign" hit. It was probably the first time many people who have heard the word before have been reinforced with the word bitcoin, and again, it was pounded into their head. Perfect advertising strategy. We could not have bought better product placement.
So to whomever is thinking that little TV thing was a flash in the pan, consider the depth of the exposure that was caused. It may look like a massive sell-off, and many people are looking to protect their money, but in the long term I think that's foolish. Bitcoin just received a massive public awareness push.
That being said. Yea, manipulators.
+1000.
No one could have said it better. |
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There is no crash and the consolidation above 6.5 could be a great and one of the last buying opportunites before a breakout.
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Bitcoin prices have just broken out above the 200 d moving average.
8$ mas not be of big resistanceand 10 $ is not far away.
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There is enough cash in the MtGox market already to move the rally to double digits
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where the slope to $8.00 is smooth?
I fell out of my chair... OK, maybe not then... It's just that so much will change before we get even close to that. The real resistance between here and even up to $7.30 is pretty strong. It is not the kind of thing that moves without some big buys coming through, and when that happens all hell breaks loose. We are not going to creep up on it all quiet like. As a matter of fact, if I were a large investor/trader looking to increase my position on BTC now would be a good time to do it because you can buy a lot without moving the price much. Right now it is looking to me that it could take some $800,000 to break $7.30. |
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I agree on the big rally potential for bitcoins as you know.
I disagree on the stock market. We may just have seen the top for years to come. Maybe the SPX touches 1300 next week as one more high and then it will fall like a stone.
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unless we see huge injection of new money coming it, it would be rather slow grind up in my view
There is nothing wrong with that. It is probably the healthiest road to sustainable growth. |
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This is entirely possible...
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Looking at the order book does not provide so much valuable information as proven in the past. It is better to focus on price action and other technical indications.
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Clark,
for me the ads work perfectly fine. They are all financial ads (Gold, Silver, etc.)
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Triangles are indeed fun.. , because if the triangle interpretation is correct, then it is a great and easy way to trade.
But what if it is not a triangle.
It is always good to check for alternate possibilities. Then listing all possibilities and trying to determine the most likely one. Just looking at one option often leads to failure.
As an example, here is the alternative possibility to the above triangle option. I prefer the below option to the triangle above does not conform to all the rules
If this was correct, we would soon see a rally in wave (iii)
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But that's old news - what about the today's triangle?
it was not a right triangle, and it turned out to develop into a flat correction. 5.8 - 6 $ is good supportHow did you know it wasn't a triangle formation? I find it really hard to judge whether a price formation is forming a triangle or not. Obviously with some lines, it was quite easy to draw an ascending triangle, but why did you know it wasn't a correct one? I'm curious how you judge whether something is a triangle or not. Did you see this short-term correction coming? Thanks!
It started with a proper a and b, but then it was invalidated as wave c did go above the high of wave b, which is not allowed. This was on Jan 8 at around 4 PM, then I knew it will not be a proper triangle. |
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it's quite normal to see some corrections and they can start anytime, particularly when you saw a 350% rally in a matter of days or a couple of weeks like we saw from the bitcoin price low of 1.994 $ up to 7.22 $...
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