  this is a convincing inverse correlation between the smp500 and bitcoin/usd. it is out of phase, but similarities to note, they are both bouncing from recent price extremes, and they are in the same time scale (2h chart) that they are out of phase could be explained by transfer delays. ugh those banks... It is a hopeful observation at best, but worth attention I think. |
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  2h SMP500 vs dollar. 2h bitcoin vs dollar. I know which one I would rather short...... but look at the correlation (inverse) |
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Some fiat entered. It will probably be around Wednesday when the dumping continues. Till then, the dumpers are waiting if maybe more fiat will be wired, so they can sell with an better price.
I'm not buying into this because it isn't very probable that much more fiat will enter. There hasn't been any important good news about the markets, so nothing has really changed in the long-term.
No news is good news on the 14th.... |
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If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.
Yes, a 1:1 ratio is what we expect at this moment so we should be targeting the $500-510 level for the end of the wave. You can look at the previous ABC rise from 400 to 700 for pattern similarity. Also, a real possibility that this is the reversal we have been waiting for. if it breaks through 510, I think a wave iii interpretation is in line. |
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 behold the glory of a green weekly candle! and it's closing soon! |
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If this is a C wave, it is very aggressive, and by rule of thumb maybe we should expect a 1:1 A:C ratio. this rally could take us to $500, threatening the wedge.
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Fonzie is a player. was a bull last time I saw him. he let it slip that he would only be around a few more weeks => professional troll + capitulation phase LOL
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In South Africa, we call it being "racialistic". Thats what the black ruled government says when it rules that 80% of the workforce must be black - forgetting 100% about the coloured people (half black and half white) .... on a side note, we also call smart black people coconuts. why? black on the outside, white on the inside  full disclosure - I am not racist. |
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Wall Street money comes with strings attached.
Let them keep their fiat investments.
..... and let them come last. |
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RyNinDaCleM,  Im here to listen. .... I really thought that wedges and triangles were the same thing.... just different terms used to describe contracting volatility and liquidity in a range. maybe I have been fooled by non - EW analysts. your analysis was certainly an alternative but not any more  I dont go into that sort of detail, I find it doesn't help until I wish to execute. The problem I have with that analysis is that you couldnt justify it on an hourly scale. At time of writing, this looks like a third wave coming, or an aggressive C wave. but it's a long way yet. we will see. what are your thoughts? |
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I once left my motorcycle outside downtown with the ignition hotwired. It wasnt there when I came back. I don't blame the city. I don't defame it or consider its people more or less criminal than those of other cities.
Come on, it was not that petty vandalism of Wikipedia that gave me that negative view of the bitcoin "ecosystem". It is the bulk of what I have read over these four months, especially the hype coming from the "great names". Bitcoin was crippled by two great disasters: first, its adoption by "libertarians", and, second, the blooming of the Chinese market. These developments turned what could have been a great e-commerce invention into the instrument of a legion of skimmers, scammers, and common criminals. Will the "pure" bitcoiners (if there are any left) have the will and power to get rid of those parasites, before they kill the idea? I don't see that happening. 'parasites' will save bitcoin if all else fails. one day we may be criminals for using bitcoin, but that wont kill bitcoin, or it wont stop bitcoin 2.0. What is a 'pure' bitcoiner? |
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10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400?  Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted..  When will the shorts be forced to close? Not until the squeeze. every day that goes by where an exchange does not close deposits or receive warning after the deadline reduces the bears cause to be bears. I'd say no more than 3-4 days is enough to push them out. today is the first day. WRONG. tl;dr: Clock really isn't ticking for the bears, specially if the price does not move against them. a) The interest rate on BTC is very low and can be settled in USD (in which case USD is taken from your account and used to buy BTC which goes to pay the interest). Secret BFX statistics page https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats indicates the interest rate for BTC is only 0.0507% (or 18.5% per year) on average. b) The margin requirement for 2.5:1 leverage is only 13%. This means that shorts can hodl those short positions quite a while depending on how much of their leverage they actually used. If you have a 2.5:1 limit and do a 1:1 position you can run up pretty big losses before you are forced to finally deal with that horrible telephone call from this pesky guy called Mr Margin. Sensible people will naturally have set stops that trigger at certain price levels but it's Bitcoin so those are probably a minority. There's still 7551 BTC to be borrowed at BFX so it's not like shorts are going to run out of coins to sell either. I'm not saying bears will be right, I'm just saying that your belief that "3-4 days is enough to push them out" is just ludicrous. They can, and some do, wait months if need be. You missed my point, I said the bears will have no reason to hold short if the exchanges are not closing down. It's no good holding short bitcoin for no good reason. positions will be closed to manage risk. you may hold on to your short at your own peril.....
critical factor being the deadline
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10,839.95 BTC of BFX shorts forgot to buy the dip to $400? Perhaps we are going lower. But what if their wish is not granted.. When will the shorts be forced to close? Not until the squeeze. every day that goes by where an exchange does not close deposits or receive warning after the deadline reduces the bears cause to be bears. I'd say no more than 3-4 days is enough to push them out. today is the first day. |
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I do recall that one of the posts you put in some words of attribution for someone... and probably in that case, it would have been good to note it (or maybe say it in small type ... ).. whatever, it was kind of a joke or a way to dig in at someone in a strategic way... ..
oh yeah, that one... was more of a joke but turns out she was very annoyed at having her character defiled on a public site.... funny that. |
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~410 so good Next sunday - same time ~700$ Remember my words! Just DO NOT edit or delete this post, and we will NOT need to remember, we can refer back. I hope you are correct with that prediction.. seems a bit too rosey to me, but not outside of the realm of reasonably possible. you seem to be alluding sometimes to my argument with nano brain....  there is nothing wrong with editing a post quickly after it was made if you have forgotten a detail.... the edit in question was made before the market changed at all, in fact, within 3 minutes. I do not edit my old posts, certainly not to meet the market. why the hell would I? |
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 This is a powerful day trading long signal considering that B was a wedge (anticipates a terminal move) and the price has turned around after being rejected in the territory of a larger wedge. What is a possible alternative count that does NOT go on to break 440? |
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Every transaction has a buyer and a seller. Therefore at least one idiot is necessary for any trade to occur.  There was a smiley, but anyway, no, both traders are better off, in their own mind, which is the only measure that matters. Well he was responding to several posts from bulls calling anyone that sells (price of $414) an Idiot. hence the smiley. actually we were just saying how successful traders require people to make mistakes to order to make money (panicking, bad judgement etc...idiots) not 100% true, but these trades are easy to see. |
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Queeq,
The price has almost retraced 100% of the latest wave down, and will likely do so in the next C or III wave upwards. This would confirm that the last wave down was a fifth wave, terminating a larger cycle downwards. not necessarily a 6 mothly reversal, but this reaction off lows should give us a few weeks. I am arguing that in a few weeks time, this reaction will have little choice but to break the wedge running down from ATH, and that would be very bullish. This is reversal territory, after all.
On a smaller scale, we have a clear a-b-c off recent highs, 440 - 400. It seems to have hit a bottom within the reaction of the last bull run. this is really bullish. If the coming C wave up that we expect is more aggressive than the A wave, then it could easily be a third wave.
If we break 510, we have broken the wedge. I think that a target of 600 to establish an up trend is overkill.
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anyone tried this site? do they really pay if you win?
yeah, it's a good site. you can check that they have paid every bet on the block chain. bitcoin is the future of gambling. |
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Would be hard to make alotta money without idiots  but we would all be wealthy if not for idiots. how? Idiots are inefficient, uneconomical and destructive. for example, if G.W.Bush hadn't spent something like $800 billion on the war in iraq, then tax payers would have more money to spend, and less buildings to rebuild. The soldiers could be making smart phones if they weren't fighting in iraq instead. |
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