an ew triangle is a five wave structure, not a three wave structure (like a simple wedge) that must be composed of non impulsive abc's. at least two of the up or down waves within an EW triangle are of the proportion 1/0.618.

Elliot wave is closely tied to irrational behaviour of the crowd. it is no secret that sentiment is the best historical edge a trader can have in predicting price action. Macd or rsi are not linked to sentiment or irrational behaviour. using our understanding of fibonacci ratios and how they must occur in all complex systems we can describe in detail likely pathways that the market may take from any given point, this helps us seamlessly adapt to and understand changes in the market. Unlike the macd or rsi elliot wave is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator. this is critical in a system where buying low and selling high is a key philosophy.

I must disagree that macd and, rsi or any arbitrary pattern work better than EW analysis. I know first hand that it is a very rewarding area of study.

The ambiguity raised here about wave i-ii is relevant now that we appear to be scratching out new lows. The count is behaving naturally so I expect this price action to be capped to 0.618 of hypothetical wave (iii)  which is a powerful number 2000. we realistically shouldnot get close to this but we should plan our trade accordingly. If you buy here you should feel comfortable with price action up to that point remembering that this is a long term position.

thanks mate, hope you find it helpful in times to come.

Thanks Ryan,
and this is why I have to specify different levels for trading on BFX. I dont like having to do this for the smaller counts. there is a good reason why I left BFX for OKcoin.

The chines market and charts are more liquid. they make for far superior analysis. This is why I will nearly always chart the yuan, sorry. I will try give USD values for bitstamp and bfx when it is important but otherwise you need to look at the charts yourself and see the critical levels as they appear on the chinese charts.

Nope that scribble was a bit shallower than this wave b, by about 100 yuan. but looks about right. It is still a valid count. 

Looking at the 1m charts (yes, I know...) it seems as though wave v is done. Now the test..... 2090. if we break 2090 then buy the breakout, stoploss local lows. if we see weakness in that area, expect a drop to test lows and buy a weak fall there. no more shorting! close your shorts!

Now wave iv seems complete, we can estimate a more accurate level for wave v. a bit lower than before, lets say 2040-2030.

We will have a reaction from this point. very possibly it will be the bottom, but there is just one chance that this is not over yet. see the highlighted circle. I think that is wave f-g of the extended trianlge. It could be wave i-ii. this means what we are seeing here is wave (v) of iii,

wave (iv) would top within wave ((iv)) so this is a breakout set up. At this point I suggest going long on a breakout through 2090 is a good strategy, or you could try cautiously to pick the bottom of wave (iii) if you are an active trader. you will need to place your stop under 2018 and accept it is a fairly risky trade.

good morning. We have had the crunch in volume, this is typical of wave (iii) of iii, the eye of the storm. this means we are probably now closer to the bottom of v than the top. Our profit target is now a sober 2050 or so, not so low as allowed (1970)

the demands of ew triangles are different to those simple wedges you are referring to. I am not new to bitcoin.

Moving our stops down to 2130 in china or around 349 in the west.

yeah you see the difference is that when we open a margin long we are exposing ourselves to risk of margin call. When we close a short there is no such risk. at the very bottom we usually dont have enough evidence to take this kind of risk. there is a very small chance that is not worth taking that we will get margin called straight away in the volatility and lose everything. Best to wait for hard evidence of the bottom before opening a margin position. Note that I very rarely try to pick bottoms to open margin long unless I have a strong count and a strong bigger picture. Closing margin positions however.... its worth picking the tops and bottoms for those because we can take the small risk of missing out on a few dollars of profit, take the quick, easy money, and save ourselves the time and stress of chasing corrections. It has also got to do with your mentality. when you are in profit, you are calm and will make good decisions. Picking the bottom to open margin long is VERY BALLSY and requires more practise.

If we break local lows and this wave v gets rolling, we can expect to find a bottom in a fairly short amount of time. Ill be tracking the waves live. This bottom is worth trying to pick out because we have a very strong count. Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me. I will track the waves and we might be presented with a leading signal, or a breakout signal at the bottom to buy. Targets are 320ish in the west (profit target, not buy target!) and 2020ish in china.

you are confused, Im tracking termination of c(B) not C. 20xx not 20x.

The triangle is playing out to the downside. This means we will likely have a great buy in the low 20xx range.

Having said that, Im going to stop with the scalping. A thread is not much good when adapting to market changes needs to be seamless.

just good thing the people who took my trade are'nt everyone   

Lol no I just think the trade has lost its strength. we should take profit and see what follows. Its really not bullish or bearish.

With shorts on okcoin at a high I think it might be wise to assume a neutral position here. sentiment is a significant part of ew.