Hi watuba,

We have had the primary already, which makes the wave to 2900 wave III. you can see this back in the thread. I believe this is still wave iv. I was expecting it to bottom in wave (iv) territory because that guideline has very seldom fails me. wave iv hasnt ntered into the territory of wave i, so technically it is still valid.

wave iv bottoms within the wave iv of one lower degree. 2580 is the lowest. the west has brutally tested this level. good chance we just bottomed out. obviously volatile so gotta take care down here.

Unfortunately china feels like the correction is not over... while the west is quite resolved. I hope those who bought here managed their risk well and can deal with some volatility. We should bottom out above 2580, probably substantially above 2580.

We should expect a fair bounce here which could very well turn into the bottom in china.

This is a great example of alternation and fourth wave correction guidelines. this wave was deep because wave ii was shallow. also, although it was extremely volatile, it could nt break support of the wave (iv), one lower degree.

The west has satisfied all necessary criteria for the wave iv correction and I believe we have bottomed in the west. likewise, china has terminated a fiver c wave, and Id assume they are equally ready to begin slowly wave v. unfortunately stoplosses in china are quite low.... about 2570



Hi watuba,

this potential wave iv correction makes sense as it was forecasted, however since the beginning of the thread I have found compelling evidence to believe we are in fact at the beginning of the next bubble cycle. wave iv, and therefore wav v is still a possibility but I think that truncated v is my dominant count.

yes west is dumping. If you can get your hands on some cheap western coins then do, stoploss $395. unfortunately china is a bit stingy.

All right we have a correction here that terminates wave iii and therefore begins wave iv. We are expecting it to bottom in the vicinity of wave (iv). If wave A=C which it tends to be then a rough target is 2750. This meets criteria, however we would expect for wave iv to go deeper and span over more time as wave ii did. Buying in this area, 2750, is OK risk reward. stop would go around 2570, under wave (iv). target, around 3000 yuan. If the price action is sideways and quiet, we would look for a larger abc correction to buy lower.

EDIT - so reason number one why I expect a dead bounce here is because the hourly macd is crossing over negative now. The market is quite exhausted and needs a break, we are slumping after a parabolic rise. Okc and huobi are traing at equal price, in fact now Okc is less than huobi. this is the market maturing here.

I am counting on the chines charts the liquidity makes it mech clearer.  Okcoin is leading the pack. Yeah, there could be one more wave up. thats why we need it to get rolling first.

No this is a strictly short term straight in straight out trade. we will talk about those key point in a day or two when wave v of this system has come and everything is clear.

I do believe we just hit the top but we nee more confirmation before shorting its a pig right now.

we will know when the time comes

Fifth waves can blow out into truly amazing parabolas. I really wasnt expecting this much today. it must have been catalysed by the winkelvi ETF.

It will always correct and offer a trade. I cant say exactly when, but the 1m count is ripening to a top. I dont expect this to tolerate 3000 yuan for any length of time today.

dont even think about it until it gets rolling is my advice. if you can snap up a good price in time, you got lucky! careful of selling into an empty order book. Its risky, but potentially lots of reward.

Ive only had bad luck shorting any top in this trend. the goal now is really another quality buy signal.

I think Okcoin might even make it right up to 2990. but it is stupidly over extended, and the count is pretty clear. we will have a sharp drop soon. I must insist that nobody chases this although hopefully we are all in coins, and not fiat!

Im sorry but we didnt get a signal yet. that just happens sometimes. technically we have an abc correction but its very small in price and time. I feel like this might be v but there is a risk it is (b) of iv the price might collapse on anybody buying now. betting small on it is ok risk reward if you have the balls to wait for final v.

thanks windjc,

The hourly macd is crossing down for the first time since 2200 (just the other day?!)

basically the rally is pretty exhausted and we should expect that wave iv to come down lower. We are expecting it to be deep, it may still enter low 2500s. I think with momentum at hourly lows we will have plenty of time to wait patiently for a quality trade in the low 2600s or hopefully low 2500s. There's no point is worrying about the last little leg too much, the big money is through and we are lucky to get an opportunity here if we do.

At this point in looks like the west is completing wave v late. its a bit of a riddle to me really.... they seemed totally truncated when Okc was breaking new highs. Just dont chase the price on margin here we are bound in this territory for a while yet.

No thats not quite right, because the higher order of wave iv and v will be followed by a deep wave ii or a retrace to 270. The recent V was truncated on most exchanges, I think we should have no trouble picking a bottom before the next rally to around 3000 yuan.

PLUS I would not advise that followers literally sell their bitcoin, or at least not all of them whenever I call I top. The HODL philosophy is still important to EW analysts too. It could be a wild ride the next bubble, everyone should be holding some bitcoin.

Watuba see pm quick

Update on the situation. we will look to buy again when this falls over.

yes, ask higher for futures is what I mean. close at whatever the price of futures is at when the spot price reaches around 2850.

Yes this is a good place to take profit. it is close to the ultimate top and means you will have another shot at wave v after the coming correction.

By the the looks of it, you should be targeting around 2880 yuan   trading futures? put that level to the futures chart and price accordingly.

EDIT - just noticed that OKcoin and huobi are playing a different game here. for Okcoin id actually lock it in a bit lower. maybe 2840-50. With Huobi it is not clear, just look for weakness about 50yuan higher up at a guess.