I need more price action to say. Cant be sure where a triangle fits in here at the moment.

For sure I am not turning bearish just because of this triangle.

A word of warning not to chase the price here. it seems that we have broken out of a triangle. triangles are terminal moves. this means the price could retrace all the way back down to 2440 before further progress.

This is a breakout. wave iv/II could easily be complete here. we have been hurt going long in the recent weeks but a clear signal and a good risk reward ratio here is not to be sneered at. The price action to the downside is weak and diverging, and we are near critical levels such as hypothetical iv of I, or hypothetical ii of (i). Buying the bottom is always more ballsy but we are still targeting around 2800 yuan at least for wave v, and much higher in case of hypothetical wave III.

I see the possibility for sure but it is not my dominant count. Truncated V is quite a plausible count imo and taking a step back looking at the 1d and 3d charts I dont see how we can easily go lower.

Of coarse I will be looking for confirmations for both counts. Ill change my mind when I see the evidence. It doesn't make a difference to a long bias at this stage.

the bottom could be a fair bit lower, we should see whenn It happens.

The diverging slide to the downside last night is an incomplete impulsive. This is likely wave C of a larger ABC. When this impulsive terminates it will offer us a buy opportunity.

Now for the first time I will share a count with you that explains where I might have been wrong counting iv. As I said earlier, I prefer the count that the down trend terminated with a truncated V and we will not revisit lows. Therefore we are looking for a primary wave and an abc correction. now we have a large abc correction, more than a 0.618 retrace. but do we have a plausible and valid primary wave? yes! it is very possible that our primary wave was a blow out fifth wave as illustrated. If we hit a bottom here and see impulsive action it could present an epic buy opportunity.

we still need more evidence before we try anything but if this begins to play out how I expect then things could get exciting.

On small time scales I saw an ascending triangle, often associated with primary waves and corrections alike. what followed was an impulse down. an impulse may the the beginning of a larger impulse, or an abc correction. it seems like it was just an abc. The potential of a primary wave at that point was large within the medium scale so I felt I should give warning in case anyone was long. maybe in was too small a time frame to bother.

I also feel like there is really no good reason for further moves to the downside at the present moment based on the daily time scale.

no I didnt say I was expecting one, I said be prepared for one. just like you would wear a helmet when you ride your bicycle.

Do you know what I saw to suggest immediate downside potential? no? then how do you know that has not changed?

It actually looks like downside potential has just been diffused. I dont see how it can easily break down and I dont have a method to project a bottom here because I dont expect one to fit in my count. I was just warning there as the market was coiled.

Be prepared for violent downside moves here.

I am stepping back and watching for signals about which count here is correct. In the western exchanges a possible triangle is forming.

Hi Ryan,

Would you mid sharing your medium term count for the thread? seems I am out of touch.

Obviously buying up here is a bit more risky, you have to sum up the risk reward yourself. Look for a dip or some flat sideways action if you decide to enter. stoploss at this point is 2450 2435.

This could escalate into wave v or III, although the valid count is currently target 2600. The bids are stacking up on Okcoin futures, so liquidity seems good for trading today.

It seems like this is the most valid case at the moment. We have formed an up trend on the hourly and hourly macd is still up. This could be wave (B) as I suggested yesterday, but I cant be sure how it fits the bigger picture. Targets for wave C are about 2600 or so. not bad risk reward.

this is quite a defining point here as illustrated. those who are trading on chinese exchanges here could use a very tight stop loss at this point if they chose to trade this breakout, around 2415. Im taking this long, stoploss uner 2115, target 2600.

Yes I am still tending to it breaking upwards, but its not exactly behaving as I expect so seems very risky to me.

not sure about 3000cny but I dont see us going lower easily either.

No I never risk margin call an 2400 was respected on OKcoin, not on huobi.


Its terrible luck.... the count is strong on the higher order but I dont know what to think of this. its arguing with the hourly macd upwards.

your position is always more secure when you are awake, although this has turned into a larger scale trade and if not rally will probably just range for days. a stoploss at 2400 is a good level for risk concerned and we should not return there if this is III or v.

As we now have a clear cut termination count of an abc (not impulsive!), we can expect either a v,III, or B to follow. B does not fit into the bigger picture, but is the least we can expect and would likely retrace 50%, 2630, or least probable 2570. v and III do potentially fit into the bigger picture. III would be phenominal, hold tight, and v would take us to 3000 yuan.