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1421  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 18, 2013, 09:26:08 AM
This is why I tell people bitcoin will succeed. Any amount can be moved around the world in minutes. While I'm on the phone for hours with "personal bankers" who are supposed to be there for you 24/7, and still can't get a wire into any exchange in a timely fashion. This is my money, and my clients money, we should be able to move it wherever we want. We're talking 10s of millions, not some small transfer where they'll screw around with you for calling late at night.

Time's up. Cashed out some yet?
1422  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 09:17:21 AM
But ok, I give you that, you usually use vague terms to describe how bitcoin is doomed Smiley I am still positive though and you can quote me on that later, that bitcoin would  cross four digits again in 2014; my crystall ball tells me, that from Jan1 2016 it will not be possible for it to go below $1000 anymore (unless dead); and to achieve that, it would have to first go to some higher levels, maybe even touching 5 digits in 2015. I know you will be here in 2016, so we'll continue this Smiley

That's why I said delusional, using a "crystal ball", or any faith based mental device is irrational. Don't use them.

In fact, I'm using exponential trend that has been consistenly on track for the last 3 years. So I will continue to Smiley

I don't think that validates any degree of certainty and no way "no matter what".
1423  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 09:01:54 AM
But ok, I give you that, you usually use vague terms to describe how bitcoin is doomed Smiley I am still positive though and you can quote me on that later, that bitcoin would  cross four digits again in 2014; my crystall ball tells me, that from Jan1 2016 it will not be possible for it to go below $1000 anymore (unless dead); and to achieve that, it would have to first go to some higher levels, maybe even touching 5 digits in 2015. I know you will be here in 2016, so we'll continue this Smiley

That's why I said delusional, using a "crystal ball", or any faith based mental device is irrational. Don't use them.
1424  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 08:37:52 AM
Read carefully, I rarely say the price would do anything in particular, if I point out some stupidity about Bitcoins or make some obvervation about you guys I don't say the price will drop.
1425  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 08:31:58 AM
in a year, the price would be solidly in four digits (and you'll be back in your filthy hole under the bridge).

Would be if what?

would be no matter what.

delusional much?

not quite, but you are. look up your prior predictions of fail. think.

I never made any predictions.
1426  Economy / Speculation / Re: what happens if governments start banning BTC and.. on: December 18, 2013, 08:30:27 AM
Economies in which countries?
1427  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 08:25:47 AM
in a year, the price would be solidly in four digits (and you'll be back in your filthy hole under the bridge).

Would be if what?

would be no matter what.

delusional much?
1428  Economy / Speculation / Re: Predictions if Chinese Government Changes Their Stance In Next 6 Months on: December 18, 2013, 08:20:05 AM
I do
1429  Economy / Speculation / Re: It's over. The Ponzi scheme is coming down. Goodnight sweet bitcoin. on: December 18, 2013, 08:13:21 AM
in a year, the price would be solidly in four digits (and you'll be back in your filthy hole under the bridge).

Would be if what?
1430  Economy / Speculation / Re: Most of the money from BTCchina is crooked money on: December 18, 2013, 06:54:13 AM
47 users own 30% of all bitcoins, and 11000 users, own 75% of all bitcoins.  That is a joke my friend. 

So are those 47 selling or buying right now?

They can either sell or hold but not buy in any meaningful volume.
1431  Economy / Speculation / Re: chinese state TV (CCTV) just talked about bitcoin & chinese central bank on: December 17, 2013, 09:36:09 AM
Bitcoin is virtual currency? I think you missed it.

He did, it's called a virtual commodity and not a currency, which is half the point of the China debate.
1432  Economy / Speculation / Re: The next bitcoin boom phase will be driven by ANTARCTICA on: December 17, 2013, 09:25:00 AM
If every penguin buys one Bitcoin the price may rise to above 100 onces of krill!!!11
1433  Economy / Speculation / Re: most possible reason for china "ban" on: December 16, 2013, 10:25:39 PM
That thread title should say "reason" for the ban.
1434  Economy / Speculation / Re: Winklevoss: Bitcoin will hit $40,000 on: December 16, 2013, 06:17:38 PM
I expect the Winkledouches to be bankrupt in 5 years.
1435  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can I predict the value of BTC/USD? on: December 15, 2013, 11:47:50 PM
I once had Eureqa find a function that seemed to predict the price within about 2% accuracy, using data with 6 hours resolution; unfortunately i never tested how it would hold against new data.

I need to figure out a way to get a finer resolution set covering the whole history; and need to get a better PC to process that without having to worry about overheating the CPU and trashing the HDD with too much use of the swap file.


Obviously, i would expect the model would only be good for doing very short term predictions, and would need to be updated as new data comes in order to retain any level of accuracy; but very short term might be enough for daytrading.

cool story tell it again
1436  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can I predict the value of BTC/USD? on: December 15, 2013, 10:06:25 PM
The lowest points the double pendulum can reach is the same as a single pendulum of the same length.
The highest point is at the origin of the pendulum plus the length of the lower part of the arm.
The upper part of the arm always swings back and forth and can not flip over.

So while the overall system may be chaotic it can be predicted with specific constraints.

What you're saying can be simplified to this:

The lowest value of USD/BTC is zero
The highest value of USD/BTC is the total capitalization/BTCs produced
The value can only go up and down (well, it can also be static for a while)


Not quite, the lower arm of the pendulum can flip over.
The analogy to that would be the market can't be static after going in one direction for a longer time, but it can on shorter timescales. This is why TA, well some TA works.
1437  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can I predict the value of BTC/USD? on: December 15, 2013, 08:22:06 PM
Markets always bust after they boom.
1438  Economy / Speculation / Re: Can I predict the value of BTC/USD? on: December 15, 2013, 08:11:03 PM
The lowest points the double pendulum can reach is the same as a single pendulum of the same length.
The highest point is at the origin of the pendulum plus the length of the lower part of the arm.
The upper part of the arm always swings back and forth and can not flip over.

So while the overall system may be chaotic it can be predicted with specific constraints.
1439  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin to the moon once again on: December 15, 2013, 05:53:02 PM
THE PRICE OF BITCOINS IS CRASHING SELL SELL SELL
1440  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2nd biggest ponzi scheme in history on: December 15, 2013, 05:20:18 PM
Ponzi investments also "store money" btw. The utility is not tied to the value or even the ledger (Litcoins, etc..). Also that money isn't directly payed to late early investors is a mere technicality, that there is no middle man does not mean it's not a ponzi.

The only valid distinction is that the cashout/cash in is external on the exchanges.
Biggest pump & dump scheme in history how about that?

Oh and network effect? Well that's the thing where it works the same way like a ponzi.
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