Would be hard to make alotta money without idiots  but we would all be wealthy if not for idiots. |
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Panic....because of panic....because idiots.
we should be so grateful for idiots. they part with money so easily. That's self-destructive ideation. true, a world without idiots would be a lot better, even if trading the markets wouldn't be so lucrative. |
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Panic....because of panic....because idiots.
we should be so grateful for idiots. they part with money so easily. I don't trade or buy. Why should i be happy when the price goes down? How much longer will you be happy with "cheap coins"? Another 5 years? Do you want to post here 5 years from now cheering because the price dropped to 5 dollars? Cheap coins? idiots cant sell coins for five years because coins are finite and so are idiots. they will have to buy back sooner than later. |
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lol yeah but if this was the forex, it would be in the news tomorrow  |
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Panic....because of panic....because idiots.
we should be so grateful for idiots. they part with money so easily. |
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 my software sucks for labeling, but Im sure y'all can see that this lil wave here actually meets the criteria of a 5/primary wave UP. third wave not the smallest, fourth wave wedge, and no overlapping. fractals are fairly clear. being the end of a larger cycle, This correction (reversal!) should last quite a long time. I doubt that it is merely a correction because (unless it forms a wedge) it will break upwards out of the larger cycle wedge in the time that it needs to consolidate. today, it would need to break 510 to get out of the wedge. In a weeks time, it would only have to break 480 to escape from the wedge. what are the fundamental arguments that this is only a correction? I would have expected a reversal upwards by the 14th as a critical fundamental date. |
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350 was a blessing. bottom or no, how could anyone pass up such an opportunity?
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this consolidation has surprising support. Huobi has held territory pretty smartly.
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the fog horn alarm still scares the shit out of me every time  +1 |
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I think its going to be safe to get some sleep tonight hey, less than 24 hours before the 14th!! sleep well, but maybe set your alarm! |
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 possible break out from consolidation. surprising to see it go upwards. EDIT. after zooming out a bit, hey presto! that wedge could possibly be the discovery of an uptrend baseline (possibly!)  |
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Hmmm...
If all exchanges must halt deposits before/on 14th.... today (next 24hrs) is possibly the riskiest day to be trading.
wait and see I guess...
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New to all this.
Very interested in learning about Technical Analysis..
Would you guys be so kind to recommend any good books and web sites where a complete newbie could learn about Technical Analysis?
Please don't laugh but I just purchased the second edition Dummy's Guide to Technical Analysis.. It looked like a good book to get a newbie overview..
I read somewhere where Technical Analysis is right something like 66% of the time.. Only 16% better then a coin flip but that 16% still means a lot..
That is not a fact and the wrong way to go about it. Technical analysts hope to make money even if they are only right 40% of the time. It would be healthy for you to learn about TA, but that is only the tip of the ice berg of trading. your trading will not reward you until you are in tune with fundamentals and understand a few things about sentiment, fear, greed and risk management. Not to mention, you will need a thick skin to trade the markets. some say that trading the markets is the greatest test of character. so dont put too much faith in your book. |
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I like your chart. I dont think you need to be critical of the forecast, because I don't think that is what EW really does. we are just looking for junctures.
Actually, to an extent, that is exactly what EW does. EW shows what is possible to happen next (granted you can have many differing alternatives, though). If there are 5 clear, non-overlapping waves down, then up is the next likely direction in either a five wave 1 or A, OR a 3 wave ABC. The fibo relationship to the previous move can give clues as to which one it is. As movements happen, you get a few different counts. Then you start checking for invalidation and readjusting your counts until the picture becomes clearer. Counts are rarely perfect on the first try! yeah, you said it. We can use it for forecasting, but it is ambiguous. Our count is also ambiguous. A lot of people would laugh at that, but the other day I was offered the chance to buy at 355 using EW. I dont think any other TA would have served me so well. |
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hmmm..... If we were to see under 400 again, we would have to leave the almighty wedge again. let's see if support has reformed. H&S suggest support at 380.
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Hey guys, not quite sure here. Is this a head and shoulders pattern on the right?  Yep a small scale head and shoulders. I dont see any reason to trade it though.... too small. the market will change too fast. and no short term fundamental reason I am aware of. |
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Maybe they do it late. The 20th rolls around and a bank account closes "Sorry it took us so long. We were very busy, system issues, etc."
Any major bank in china that breaks the law for five days consecutively with the whole world watching is taking a risk I would not understand, it defeats the purpose of a deadline entirely. If no enforcement comes on the 15th, then I would say that china has only set up a regulatory framework. The latest positive news is some evidence that they dont want to bring bitcoin down. If they really didn't want it, they would have dropped the ban bomb last year. they wouldn't take the risk of letting it grow before they ban it. |
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There's no law or announcement coming on the 15th. The banks were asked to close the accounts by the 15th as a deadline. Either they comply, or they don't.
Yeah, this is critical, what the banks do on this date is key to understanding what the law implies (evidently, it is a cloudy subject). I suggest announcement because that day is most subject to an announcement. For example, It may be that the last exchanges are wiped out on that day and cause super volatility. If there is no announcement then, there is unlikely to be one ever. |
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The problem with our little wedge is that is linear, so it is bound to break within a finite time when it reaches zero, which occurs in August. Does that mean we are guaranteed a reversal in July? You can't say we're guaranteed a reversal. The downtrend could very well go on well beyond that, hypothetically. You can't say that just because geometrically speaking, a sloped line will meet zero, that a reversal is guaranteed.
So maybe, when you're dealing with large price ranges and long amounts of time, it is more appropriate to use a logarithmic line. This way, the line could be in effect infinitely. There could potentially be a false breakout of the linear line only to meet resistance at the logarithmic line.
I agree with all that, just my fundamental outlook tells me that this cannot say idle at the current rate of adoption (also at current rate of un-adoption). In worst case scenario, the issues in china should be resolved at most in a couple of months after the fifteenth, my opinion. assuming that the issues are resolved by the fifteenth (positive news or less negative news) a break above the wedge would have fundamental support. If not, a break above the wedge in a worse scenario would be even more meaningful, right? the coming days are the most critical I have ever anticipated, especially considering chinese law/announcement on the 15th, and the price action/reaction we have seen from positive news. It seems like support is at hand, besides being pretty fishy. I've never guaranteed anything. Some people dont like how I put things. Im trying to change that. |
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