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1441  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: July 23, 2022, 08:48:11 AM
While Russian propaganda is spoiling the brains of its listeners, the EU is taking concrete steps to say "Russia goodbye" in the near future Smiley

"....The European Union is facing the risk of a further shutdown of gas supplies from Russia due to the Kremlin weaponizing gas exports, with almost half of our member states already affected by supply cuts. Taking action now could reduce both the risk, and the cost to Europe in the event of further or complete disruption, strengthening Europe's energy resilience.
So today the Commission is proposing a new legislative instrument and a European Gas Demand Reduction Plan to cut Europe's gas consumption by 15% until next spring. All consumers, governments, households, public building owners, electricity providers and industry can and should take steps to save gas. The Commission will also accelerate work on supply diversification, including joint gas purchases, to enhance the EU's ability to find alternative sources of gas supplies.
The Commission proposes a new Council Regulation on coordinated measures to reduce demand for gas based on Article 122 of the Treaty. The new Regulation will set a target for all Member States to reduce gas demand by 15% between 1 August 2022 and 31 March 2023. The new Regulation will also give the Commission the opportunity to announce, after consultation with the Member States, a "Union Warning ". on the security of supply by introducing a mandatory reduction in demand for gas for all Member States."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_4608
Rather, the EU is taking concrete steps to collapse, because Portugal, Spain, Italy, Poland, Hungary and Greece have already announced their unwillingness to reduce gas consumption by 15% and protested the EU decision.
1442  Economy / Economics / Re: Can BTC keep up with another Fed rates hike? on: July 23, 2022, 08:43:21 AM
The Federal Reserve has come up with plans to raise interest rates again after doing so three times this year.
The Nation's Central Bank is expected to lift the benchmark Fed funds rate by 0.75 according to CME Fed watch
 
The Fed have been raising these rates aggressively in a bid to beat inflation, with some expecting the economy to enter a recession. Despite the previous rate hikes, economists predict that this may not be the last rate hike for this year because inflation has hit a 9.1% since June and assets like the cryptocurrency have not been left behind.

 Cryptocurrency have been dubbed the "cure-it all for what ails you" as it has helped to curb inflation, low interest rates, lack of purchasing power and what not. This was all when it was in it's high tho.
 With the way rates are going up, is it advisable to buy and hodl or to apply DCA to buy at intervals as price keeps fluctuating? Fed rates hike link

That is a colossal rate rise and the opposite of the slow decline to almost zero that we saw before Covid. It's a very confusing situation but in reality the governments around the world were very weak and allowed the rates to stay far too low for far too long - pretending that it was stimulus. When rates were low people and companies could borrow vast sums while having to pay back relatively little in borrowing rates. Central bankers stuck with the easy option of keeping them down until it became impossible not to raise them and the unpopular association that comes with that. Bitcoin has done none of the things you listed, it is simply a mechanism for storing or exchanging a perceived value and it has actually lost a lot of trust from the wider public in the last few months of price drops, it'll take a while to recover back.
What colossal rise rate are you talking about? You have a very short event horizon, the near-zero discount rate is a phenomenon of recent history and has only been observed since 2008. Look at events a little more broadly and you will see a discount rate of 5%, 10% and even 19% in 1981 - that's the order of numbers needed to really curb the inflation surge, and not pretend to be a frenzy of activity, which is now being done by the Fed.
1443  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: July 23, 2022, 07:16:46 AM
...Nord Stream 2 cost Gazprom around €9.5 billion...
Of which exactly half was paid by the European companies Engie, OMV, Shell, Uniper and Wintershall. Nord Stream-2 is not a Russian project, but a joint Russian-European project with equal financial participation.
1444  Economy / Economics / Re: Can BTC keep up with another Fed rates hike? on: July 23, 2022, 06:50:57 AM
It's hard to speculate but I can anticipate the bottom of the pool for Bitcoin being a whole lot deeper than what it is now if the feds continue to hike interest rates (which they will, inflation isn't going to come down to reasonable rates at the current pace). The US's economy hasn't reached recession yet. They could be in a recession now, we just don't know until the next GDP numbers get released. Negative GDP growth will shock the market, Bitcoin goes tumbling.
And I think that the price bottom for bitcoin has already been passed, and here's why. The driver for inflation is the rise in energy prices, including the rise in the price of electricity - and this directly affects the cost of mining. Now the average price of mining one bitcoin in the US is about 21 thousand dollars, that is, miners in the US work at the socket level. Bitcoin mining in Europe has long been uneconomical. If you look around the world as a whole (and this is logical because bitcoin is a global network), it turns out that there are very few places where bitcoin mining still brings super profits due to very cheap electricity against the backdrop of a government that is relatively loyal to cryptocurrencies. On average, the situation is about the same as in the US, maybe a little better. With a global recession approaching, it is difficult to assume that miners will be able to sustain losses for long enough, they need at least a minimal operating profit to cover current expenses.

As for raising the Fed's discount rate, in order to cope with inflation, it is necessary to raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by at least 7.5%, which of course the Fed will not do, because it will cause an immediate collapse of the economy. Therefore, now the Fed is more likely not fighting inflation, but simply trying to be a little ahead of the ECB (hoping that this will be enough if the EU gets even worse and then the US dollar looks good against the background of the euro).
1445  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 23, 2022, 05:46:10 AM
About 1000 Russian troops were surounded in Vysokopolye by Armed Forces of Ukraine and now asking green corridor:
https://t.me/zsuwar/18321
https://odessa-journal.com/arestovich-confirmed-the-encirclement-of-a-group-of-russians-in-the-kherson-region-and-revealed-the-details/
Ukraine have big temptation to destroy them, but more likely that russians will have to surrender and will be taken as POW's
Oh, have you brought fresh wet erotic fantasies of Lucy "talking ass" Arestovich? Grin
1446  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of the U.S. [In Process] on: July 23, 2022, 04:26:48 AM
Putin is an excellent player in the political arena Smiley True, in quotation marks Smiley
By artificially dropping the ruble to 55 derevynnkh per dollar, the miserable and cowardly under-fuhrer failed the budget item - budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. I explain - the budget of the terrorist country is formed in pieces of paper with the name "ruble". And all income, including foreign exchange, is transformed into rubles. And if "yesterday" for 1 dollar they received as much as 120 rubles, today - only 55. Further, through simple operations, you can calculate how much the budget loses because of this Smiley Another "idiotic victory in Russian" Smiley
But the Central Bank of Ukraine did a good job - today it devalued the hryvnia by 25%. Before the Maidan, they gave 8 hryvnias per dollar, and now they give 36.6, I think this is a success.  Grin

Oh, again, haloperidol distorted reality? Smiley
Then sit down, hold your knees with your hands and listen Smiley
Since the beginning of a new phase of the terrorist war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine, the NBU made a decision that allowed preventing panic and real problems in the banking sector and in the foreign exchange market. For settlements with importers, a fixed hryvnia / dollar, hryvnia / euro exchange rate was accepted, it was in the range of UAH 30-32 per dollar / euro, and had slight fluctuations. The cash rate was free, it was formed on the basis of real supply and demand in the market. And yes, it was higher than the NBU rate for export-import operations.
Today, the real picture, with the monetary base, has changed, and it makes no sense to continue to keep, in fact, an artificial hryvnia exchange rate, this does not lead to good (in Russia, by the way, they will soon feel it Smiley)
This is how the situation looks, and not the nonsense that you habitually carry Smiley
That is, the official hryvnia exchange rate is artificially drawn and does not reflect objective reality? Have I correctly identified the essence of your lengthy explanations? Grin
1447  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia? on: July 22, 2022, 06:02:52 AM
In your own terminology, you are trading with terrorists who have attacked and invaded your country. And you have no problem with it. It seems hypocritical to me, or at least strange.

In general, the topic of Russian gas transit through Ukraine looks artificially taboo, especially in the West. It's funny. Grin


I had no doubt that you would twist the information so! Not surprised, as usual Smiley

I explain. Ukraine has obligations not to Russia (if there were only obligations to a terrorist country, we would have turned off the valve a long time ago), but to Western partners, to whom Russia, not having its own developed GTS, supplies gas through the Ukrainian GTS. And we are still forced to fulfill the agreements before Europe, interacting with such terrorist partners as Russia. I hope it's clear... Although such concepts as "obligations" and "agreements" in Russia are not very valuable Smiley
Perhaps that is why the deputy of the Ukrainian Rada called for stealing Russian gas from the pipeline in order to survive the coming winter? Grin
1448  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: July 22, 2022, 05:47:22 AM
It was never a good idea for Germany to rely on Russia for energy to this extent, current events emphasize that but it was true a year, a decade or twenty years ago that energy security is important to an economy and they simply acted poorly chasing prices.  Path of least resistance is often going to put a country down a drain, no special take on what is Russia doing now or next required to observe that  repeated effect.
On the one hand, this is true, but on the other hand, this is what made Germany the leader and locomotive of the European Union. Also, do not forget that the European Union has very strong antitrust laws, including in terms of energy security. The heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies in Germany has been formed not so much by Russian efforts as by the efforts of the Green Party, which made an adventurous bet on renewable energy that did not work. According to the IMF, the complete rejection of Russian gas will cost Germany a loss of 4.8% of GDP (this is more than the estimate of the reduction in Russia's GDP from all Western sanctions).

However, we digress from the red thread of this topic. In the meantime, with the mediation of Turkey, the issue with the export of Ukrainian wheat seems to have been resolved. The talk was about a measly 20 million tons (Russia has already exported twice as much this year).
1449  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: July 22, 2022, 04:40:35 AM
@be.open. It is a little strange that you need to prove something that is not disputed even now by the highest political and military leadership of Russia. In social networks, there is also a lot of evidence from the Russian army that before the invasion of Ukraine they were told that the people of Ukraine would meet them as liberators with flowers and that this "special operation" would take several days, and therefore they were provided with dry rations for three days . (True, these dry rations had an expired shelf life of several years). In addition, the military leadership of Russia did not worry about organizing the food for its troops during the seizure of Ukraine. Already when the Russian troops met a worthy rebuff from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and got bogged down in protracted battles in Ukraine, an order was issued for the invaders to provide themselves with food, that is, to rob shops and the population in Ukraine.

Russian intelligence was very wrong about the resistance of the Ukrainians because the Kremlin generously funded the subversive work in Ukraine. Only to one of the leaders of the opposition party in Ukraine, Medvedchuk, the Putin regime allocated about five billion dollars for the corresponding work on the unhindered occupation of Ukraine. This money was appropriated, and in return, cheerful reports were sent to Russia about the success of the work done. This was also the basis for Putin's subsequent decision to attack Ukraine.
And yet, can you provide such proof? Not in the form of fantasies of employees of the center of psychological operations from social networks, but in the form of official statements of any high-ranking officials from Russia?


And now Putin does not know how to end the war he unleashed, because he is suffering a military defeat in it. By the way, Russian troops did not capture Kyiv. They reached the suburbs of Kyiv, but soon they were defeated there and expelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia now explains the shameful escape from the central and northern regions of Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill. As well as the flight from the captured Zmeiny Island after the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet "Moskva" and several smaller ships and boats. It seems that the Kremlin will also explain the flight from all over Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill.
There will be no more goodwill gestures, Ukraine did not use its chance.
1450  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 21, 2022, 08:16:30 PM
Meanwhile, today three Ukrainian kamikaze drones attacked the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. An attack on a nuclear facility (such as a nuclear power plant) is nuclear terrorism. Another achievement in the track record of Ukraine.

For clarity, there are reports of the RF storing weapons and other means of war in Zapo. Who is the psycho that decided to use a nuclear plant as shield??.

I doubt that such attack even happened in real life. "Ukrainian drones" is from the words of occupation administration, not from some video fact (unlike famous attack with a drone on oil refinery in Russia)

Looks like a russian provocation
Photo of the wreckage of the drones used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack Energodar. In fairness, I note that a kilogram of TNT in a kamikaze drone is not capable of causing significant damage to the power units of a nuclear power plant, but this does not negate the fact that an attack on a nuclear facility is an act of nuclear terrorism.

Pulling this tiger's tail is a very bad idea.
1451  Economy / Economics / Re: Surprisingly, Elon's Tesla is not so keen on hodling BTC anymore on: July 21, 2022, 07:52:28 PM
There is something wrong in the world if the richest person is just a flamboyant Twitter clown.
1452  Economy / Economics / Re: Solar panels set to be mandatory on all new buildings under EU plan on: July 21, 2022, 06:35:01 PM
..
Sun and wind without a backup solution are not going to fix anything at a national scale, they still need a reliable continuous source, and that is only nuclear.
..
Perhaps this is the first reasonable thought in your performance among the muddy streams of Russophobia and your usual nonsense. Congratulations, you are not hopeless.
1453  Economy / Economics / Re: Sanction isn't the right option on: July 21, 2022, 06:30:39 PM
Meanwhile, the European Union has introduced the seventh package of sanctions against Russia. They banned Russian gold, froze the assets of Sberbank and more than 50 new individuals and legal entities, including politicians, military leaders, oligarchs, and propagandists. I have not yet come under EU sanctions, probably I am trying badly with the spread of Russian propaganda.  Grin
1454  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of the U.S. [In Process] on: July 21, 2022, 01:25:17 PM
Putin is an excellent player in the political arena Smiley True, in quotation marks Smiley
By artificially dropping the ruble to 55 derevynnkh per dollar, the miserable and cowardly under-fuhrer failed the budget item - budget revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons. I explain - the budget of the terrorist country is formed in pieces of paper with the name "ruble". And all income, including foreign exchange, is transformed into rubles. And if "yesterday" for 1 dollar they received as much as 120 rubles, today - only 55. Further, through simple operations, you can calculate how much the budget loses because of this Smiley Another "idiotic victory in Russian" Smiley
But the Central Bank of Ukraine did a good job - today it devalued the hryvnia by 25%. Before the Maidan, they gave 8 hryvnias per dollar, and now they give 36.6, I think this is a success.  Grin
1455  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Reason why russia can never win war on: July 21, 2022, 11:02:06 AM
Successes of a pathetic parody of the Fuhrer, on this trip:
- 4 times he felt bad, doctors came running Smiley
- no drones
- Iran will continue to sell oil to China, and yes - in this market it will reduce the price in order to sell oil as much as possible. Iran needs a currency, not some unnecessary pieces of paper called "ruble"
- Oil production (however, as well as gas) Iran will increase, this is Iran's business and it does not care about the problems of Russia and Putin personally.

Try to prove otherwise! Smiley
CIA Director William Burns in an interview at the Aspen security forum:
Quote
There are many rumors about the health of President Putin, and as far as we can tell, he is even too healthy.

ps Biden has cancer.

1456  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Trump Lite on: July 21, 2022, 10:55:18 AM
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigns.
1457  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: July 20, 2022, 04:27:03 PM
Meanwhile, today three Ukrainian kamikaze drones attacked the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. An attack on a nuclear facility (such as a nuclear power plant) is nuclear terrorism. Another achievement in the track record of Ukraine.
1458  Economy / Economics / Re: Wheat War I is going to be World War III on: July 20, 2022, 03:19:31 PM
@be.open. By heavy losses on the part of Ukraine, I primarily meant the heavy losses of the civilian population and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, which the Russians are deliberately destroying in this war. Having failed to destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian invaders began to systematically destroy the civilian population, including the elderly, women and children, especially pro-Ukrainian ones, in order to simply intimidate the Ukrainians and break their will to resist. These are purely fascist methods ...

Now about the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On February 24, Russia, without declaring war, attacked the northern, eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, including from Belarus, with the forces of eight of its most prepared armies for the attack, totaling up to 200,000 soldiers and officers. Moreover, all this army moved to Ukraine with endless columns of armored troops and other military special equipment. The calculation was for a quick, within 3-5 days, the capture of the main territory of Ukraine and a violent change of power in Ukraine. But a month later, Russian troops suffered a significant defeat in manpower and equipment and were forced to flee from the central and northern regions of Ukraine so as not to be completely defeated. Thus ended the first stage of this war, and this was the undoubted success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and all Ukrainians.
Tell me, what is the source of this information about the hope of the Russians for a lightning blitzkrieg? I don't know of any statements from Russia that they expected to complete this operation in 3-5 days, maybe you can tell me? Or is this a common lie of Ukrainian propaganda?

At the end of April, Ukraine had a chance to end this armed conflict, when the negotiations in Istanbul turned out to be fruitful and common ground was found between the parties. Then Russia, as a gesture of goodwill, withdrew its troops from Kyiv and immediately received a provocation in Bucha.

After that, having received a good rebuff and realizing that they could not capture all of Ukraine, the Putin regime concentrated the main blow on the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine in order to first of all completely capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and, if possible, build a land corridor not only to the occupied since 2014 Crimea, but also Transnistria. But Russia has not yet fulfilled these already limited goals. Now Ukraine has a front with a total length of 2,450 kilometers, and the "second army of the world" has lost almost all of its elite troops and the best military equipment in Ukraine. We can say that the Russian offensive has almost run out of steam. The shortage in Russia is felt both in manpower and in technology. Russia has already thrown almost all of its reserves into Ukraine, while exposing all its regions militarily, and they are being successfully crushed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia removes from conservation and throws into Ukraine even the old T-62 tanks, which have been in service since the 50s of the last century, and is arming the new replenishment with Mosin rifles of the 1891 model.

During the five months of the war, Russia was unable to achieve any significant success at the front. Of the 25 regional centers of Ukraine, Russian troops only in the first days of a large-scale offensive were able to capture, with little or no resistance, only the regional center Kherson, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are going to liberate in the near future.

During this time, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia lost 38,550 of its soldiers and officers alone in the dead. According to Russia itself, which is not made public, such losses amount to more than 54,000, and taking into account the wounded, this figure has already exceeded one hundred thousand people. At the same time, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 1,691 Russian tanks, 3,892 armored vehicles, 220 aircraft, 188 helicopters, 831 artillery systems, 249 MLRS, 113 air defense systems, 2,767 military vehicles, 693 UAVs, 15 ships and boats were destroyed.

And this is just the beginning. After receiving only a dozen HIMARS MLRS from the United States, over the past two weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed over 20 different Russian ammunition depots. Because of this, the Russian ammunition depots are removed from the front line by 90 km, which greatly complicates their delivery to the front line, which is why they experience significant difficulties and their offensive is almost bogged down.
Let's see what happens in another two or three months.
We can wait 2-3 years, time works for Russia. The problem for Ukraine is that its territorial losses after the breakdown of negotiations at the end of April will no longer be limited to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Now Russia needs the entire south of Ukraine for a land corridor in Transnistria. Odessa is a Russian city. Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Kherson too. And you will have to learn to live in this new reality.
1459  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ukraine President suspects Treason on: July 20, 2022, 03:05:16 PM
After waiting for a long time for concrete and sufficient radical results from the leaders of Procecutor and Security Service department, President Volodymyrs Zelensky questions their leadership and has suspended the  Procecutor General and Head of Security Service of the country accusing them of collaborating with Russia.
Can President Zelensky's accusations be true?
Did the president make the right decision?
 
I think the reason for the resignation of the Prosecutor General and the Head of the SBU was a productive missile strike in Vinnitsa on the house of officers, where a meeting of high-ranking military officers was held (at least three colonels of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed).

Another "precision posting" by the usual trolls. Which colonels were killed.. in "your thinking"?
Head of the Armament and Logistics Service of the Ukrainian Air Force, Colonel Oleg Makarchuk, Colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force Dmitry Burdiko and high-ranking officer of the Air Force Konstantin Puzyrenko. Given that Ukraine has long had big problems with regular officers, one can understand the sharp reaction of Zelensky, who fired a childhood friend from his position.

So, if they are shown to be alive, that would be a wrong assessment? There does not seem to be any corroboration of any fact stated other that some obscure "sources", seems just like another rumour.
Yep, of course.
1460  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Ukraine President suspects Treason on: July 20, 2022, 08:55:28 AM
After waiting for a long time for concrete and sufficient radical results from the leaders of Procecutor and Security Service department, President Volodymyrs Zelensky questions their leadership and has suspended the  Procecutor General and Head of Security Service of the country accusing them of collaborating with Russia.
Can President Zelensky's accusations be true?
Did the president make the right decision?
 
I think the reason for the resignation of the Prosecutor General and the Head of the SBU was a productive missile strike in Vinnitsa on the house of officers, where a meeting of high-ranking military officers was held (at least three colonels of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were killed).

Another "precision posting" by the usual trolls. Which colonels were killed.. in "your thinking"?
Head of the Armament and Logistics Service of the Ukrainian Air Force, Colonel Oleg Makarchuk, Colonel of the Ukrainian Air Force Dmitry Burdiko and high-ranking officer of the Air Force Konstantin Puzyrenko. Given that Ukraine has long had big problems with regular officers, one can understand the sharp reaction of Zelensky, who fired a childhood friend from his position.
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