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Nice summary Zeroblock.
What makes you say they will lose against against CoinLab? I haven't really followed that story much.
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Bitcoins arose from a computer program that says "His computer can calculate math problems twice as fast as your computer. Hence, he gets 50 bitcoins for his computing power. For yours, you get nothing."
Seriously, that is how it works. I guess the "most wrong bitcoin article" competition is still running?  What is in it for the winner? |
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When's chartbuddy gonna return with the big charts? (I know you can click on them, but ain't nobody got time fo' dat)
Alternatively, where is (s)he getting the charts from?
I also vote for bigger charts again from chart buddy as I don't bother clicking the small ones and prefer to ignore him altogether. A good proposal was to make the chart at least as big as the minimum post size. Also agree, I don't pay much attention to them, but do have an occasional glance, with the new smaller one that i have to click on its jsut too much work. All-in-all its pretty unnecessary and just adds alot o traffic to this thread. If i ignore chart buddy, will i still get notifications when he posts in this thread? I agree too, after all they are the most on topic posts in the thread I am not really a fan of the big charts, but it's cool, I can just start ignoring CB. |
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I would love to transfer to BTC and remove that from MTGOX. Unfortunately since they removed my money when I requested a withdrawal, I no longer have it available to buy BTC. I'm screwed until they do the wire transfer or return my money. I can't get them to do either because every support request is met with the same damn template response no matter what you ask or say in the request.
I know some people have been successfull in getting there confirmed wires cancelled. Yeah, I got mine cancelled within the day. |
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This is my problem as well. I have SWIFT and Account Number, but not IBAN.
What do you mean you have SWIFT and acct number? I think you can construct IBAN from that data, no? |
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Max Kaiser:  Care to explain? |
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I think we are in hope-relief of a short term cycle. Longer term cycle we are in fear. Really long term, we are just getting started  . |
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I suspect bitstamp withdrawals may experience a bit of delay now, with all the people from gox coming over to them to withdraw funds...
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Price stability (long term) is impossible without a 1000 fold price increase or a reduction to zero. Indeed, this is BS. |
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Isn't there some circular logic going on here? You are saying unprofitable (or barely profitable) mining will cause selling and the price to drop, but then for your calculations you already assume a lower price to estimate their profitability in the future. Probably has more to do with the timeframe since mining shouldn't be very profitable forever, but it makes the timeframe estimation a lot less sure, I think.
$30 is my estimate of a firm bottom for what the demand side of BTC can provide independent of mining costs, if you believe in a different bottom or indeed any other price just substitute that in the calculation and you will get a different estimate for when ASICs become unprofitable. $30 sounds pretty good to me  . |
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Nigerian princes, princesses, and the like are rejoicing at this news! Yay, more ways to scam/fleece the fat westerners out of their money!!!
I actually met a Nigerian once whose name was Prince. I shit you not ! (nice guy by the way). |
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Declining profitability of mining presents a miner with three choices, stop mining OR continue to mine while selling most coins to pay for the marginal electricity consumed in mining OR mine at a loss and become a speculator. Any earlier coins the miner may have hoarded are clearly separate and changes in mining profitability have no effect on decisions to hold or sell those coins.
The overall effect of declining mining profitability is miming becomes much more like REAL METAL mining, today most mines operate on very narrow profit margins and sell ALL their metal immediately (or even as futures), they do not hoard and speculate in it because its too risky vs their narrow margin. This is in fact a good thing because these narrow margin miners create a very very stable supply of new coins entering, every day your getting 144 blocks worth of coins being sold and the exchange rate will fluctuate only because of demand side changes. That's the behavior we saw during the low volatility year of 2012.
The combination of ASICs, the block reward reduction to 25 (which immediately cuts in half the flow of new coins and artificially doubles the exchange rate) and a media fueled bubble have destabilized all this and we won't know a stable price until all those factors have faded away.
Doing some quick calculations on when an 1st Generation ASIC (~100 Mhash/J) becomes unprofitable to run (aka marginal costs only, ignore all hardware). Assuming a decline to $30 for BTC and electricity at 0.15 per kWh difficulty would need to reach 440 million, roughly 17 times what it is now or 4 doublings, at present it seems to be doubling every 2 months so I'm predicting 6-8 months for first generation ASICs to be scrap metal.
Isn't there some circular logic going on here? You are saying unprofitable (or barely profitable) mining will cause selling and the price to drop, but then for your calculations you already assume a lower price to estimate their profitability in the future. Probably has more to do with the timeframe since mining shouldn't be very profitable forever, but it makes the timeframe estimation a lot less sure, I think. |
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Winklevoss is Bitcoin  They are a money transfer protocol that moves value to 1zUcKerBERg. |
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Well-written article, only I don't agree with the conclusion.
I don't think volatility attacks would kill bitcoin. It would only slow down adoption and lose the manipulators money in the process. At least, that's my belief for now.
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My guess: we will break the downward channel, but we won't go much higher.
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Jezus people, how bout trying to help somebody instead of attacking the messenger or calling them stupid when you hear something you don't like  . |
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It's not photoshopped properly you mean . EDIT: my post count is the bitcoin all-time high ! Yeeaay, now I'll have to shut up for a while and enjoy this magical number . |
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I know this early adopter who used to mine like crazy and hoarded all the bitcoins. He has bitcoins in the high 5 figures.
He recently told me he didn't believe in bitcoin anymore with all the regulations and he is going to dump them in the market over the next few months.
Just warning you people so you can get out early before he dumps.
too bad for him Yeah, poor millionaire ! |
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I know this early adopter who used to mine like crazy and hoarded all the bitcoins. He has bitcoins in the high 5 figures. He recently told me he didn't believe in bitcoin anymore with all the regulations and he is going to dump them in the market over the next few months. Just warning you people so you can get out early before he dumps. ...  |
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