In other words, oda.krell may have built a better bull trap that I could.

The news is nice, but IMO had no connection to the price rise, which is normal market movement.

This article may help understand how the Tor sites were compromised:
http://arstechnica.com/security/2014/11/silk-road-other-tor-darknet-sites-may-have-been-decloaked-through-ddos/

New mini pump soon.

Yes, they thought THE bottom was in April (I said "no, just look at the volume") and that seemed a good time to buy and hold.
That's why the market wasn't willing to drop (I posted this in the Memespeculation), and a lot of time was wasted with low volume.



The 5th October bottom may have been THE bottom, the volume was there, but it happened faster than I expected, and is somewhat fishy.

My most probable scenario is still bearish, as long as the market won't be able to build the first sub-wave of wave 1.
To build it the market needs to reach at least 470$, preferably 520$, to ensure the correction that will follow will stop at or above 275$.
If we go up for a while it just takes longer. And Blitz posting funny skeletons won't change my mind, only sustained buying can.

Another inflection point, and it's looking less bearish that I would like. This may go up to about 380$ during the next days.

@JorgeStolfi:
These market movements represent each 2 EW upward sub-sub-waves of wave C. The second one took about 4 times longer, for various reasons.

The price was already in an obvious uptrend when the Chinese speculators stepped in and pumped it, so instead of a peak of around 600$ in spring 2014,
the peak was around 1200$ in December 2013 (market moved a lot faster up with the Chinese). Events can heavily influence the market, but price affects price.

Please stop referring to the May 2014 price rise as a "bubble". It is part of the deflation pattern of the November 2013 (mania phase of the) bubble.
IMO there are 2 reasons for the May 2014 uptrend (that I called bull trap): the PBoC stopped feeding bad news to the market, so the market lost some
downward momentum and the linear descending channel broke, which was inevitable at some point, otherwise price would have reached 0$ by now.

March-April 2016 is optimistic, currently it's: Reward-Drop ETA: 2016-07-31.

4h and 15min MACD suggest a dump is coming. It may however just test short term support.

Not fish, whales are mammals. And they may dump hard...

The shit is piling up, feds claim to have cracked Tor.
http://www.coindesk.com/day-reckoning-dark-markets-hundreds-illicit-domains/

On the short term, it is possible to see increased supply of bitcoins into the market (not only exchanges), because the feds' actions may have consequences,
like the need for extra cash to relocate and also more bitcoins spent (and then converted to fiat) for new fake IDs.

It seems a sizable amount of bitcoins were seized (how?), quoting from article on Arstechnica:

However, in its investigation of Silk Road 2.0, the government took a different technical tack. In a statement issued by the US Attorney’s Office about the arrest, a spokesperson said, ”During the Government’s investigation, which was conducted jointly by the FBI and [Homeland Security Investigations], an HSI agent acting in an undercover capacity (the “HSI-UC”) successfully infiltrated the support staff involved in the administration of the Silk Road 2.0 website and was given access to private, restricted areas of the site reserved for Benthall and his administrative staff. By doing so, the HSI-UC was able to interact directly with Benthall throughout his operation of the website.”

According to the criminal complaint filed in US Court today, the HSI undercover investigator got in on the ground floor with Silk Road's second incarnation. "DPR2," the original operator of the new site, created a forum to discuss launching a replacement site on a hidden site on the Tor network on October 7, 2013—less than a week after the original site was seized. The undercover investigator was invited to join the forum, and the next day was granted forum moderator privileges; by January 2014, the investigator was a paid staff member, receiving 16 payments in Bitcoins totalling about $32,189 based on current exchange rates.

FBI ARRESTS BLAKE “DEFCON” BENTHALL, ALLEGED OPERATOR OF SILK ROAD 2.0 [UPDATED]
Site is down—arrest nearly a year after feds nabbed Ross "DPR" Ulbricht of Silk Road 1.0.
With that level of authorized access—and with communications directly with Benthall—the FBI and HSI would have been able to gather evidence directly from the site’s server and then use other measures to de-anonymize the individuals associated with it. It’s possible that the investigators may have allowed the site to continue to operate for a period of time to act as a “honeypot” to gain further information about transactions being passed through the marketplace. According to the criminal complaint, "foreign law enforcement authorities" imaged the Silk Road 2.0 server on May 30—which means the site was allowed to continue to operate for five more months while the FBI, HSI, and partner law enforcement organizations gathered data.
That's likely how Irish authorities got information required to stage a drug raid yesterday in Dublin, seizing approximately $200,000 worth of LSD, Ecstasy, and other drugs as well as $18 million in bitcoin. The Irish Examiner reports the raid was the "result of an international drug trafficking investigation into the sale and supply of controlled drugs on an encrypted layer of the internet known as 'the Darknet'."  The operation is part of a broader FBI/Europol operation called 'Onymous," the Examiner reports—"an international day of action to disrupt global activity on the Darknet and remove certain websites and forums is to conclude within the next 24 hours."

FTFY.

Quoting from cryptocoinsnews article:

Whenever users deposited bitcoins into their account, they really sent it to an account with three keys, one given to the buyer, the seller, and the site admins.
Obviously, the site admins’ keys are compromised; however, buyers and sellers on these sites will be able to withdraw their bitcoins, or even finish their transactions, without the site admins’ keys.
Since the FBI only controls the site admins’ keys, they can’t seize the bitcoins and auction them.

Um, my strategy would be different. If 420$ resistance won't be broken within about a week, prepare to buy below 250$.

No it can't jump in a matter of seconds, to reach 600$ in the bullish scenario it would take several weeks.