notice just came of MtGox claim approval
me too, quoting: As a result, all of the amounts of your filed claim(s) have been approved. But I'm waiting for the Court to dismiss Coinlab's ridiculous claim. Then I'll celebrate. |
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If the prediction game were about the highest and lowest price during the second quarter, it would have made sense for me to take an educated guess. But guesstimating the BTC price on any one future day, closing of Q2 or not, is too much gambling for my taste.  |
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I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish. With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...  Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then? If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive. But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery. weekly macd is positive now? do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months? No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago. And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD). What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon. In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump). Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, so the 5200$ scenario has now good chances to become true. |
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I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish. With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold... Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then? If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive. But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery. weekly macd is positive now? do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months? No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago. And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD). What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon. In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump). |
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I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish. With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold... Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then? If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive. But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery. |
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I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish. With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold... Just don't follow the price action for a month or two. Take a break. Poor advice: the bullish scenario targets 5200$, while the bearish one targets 2100$. Quite a difference, and any early clue regarding the winning scenario would be very valuable to me. |
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what's going on? first spike up, now spike down? I'm not used to this volatility anymore. please, someone make it stop
I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish. With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold... |
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The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.
It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell. There is a bullish setup in 6h and 12h MACD, probably 1 or 2 higher highs are going to happen in the next 2 - 3 weeks (if the market keeps current pace). And IMO that will be the top and a bull trap. If this will unfold as I expect, about 2 weeks from now I'll post a bearish chart, with a later bottom around 2500$. Still, the weekly PSAR might flip to bullish next week, so not all is bearish. Weekly PSAR flipped to bullish today, so the market is moving a bit faster than I expected. So IMO it will top sooner, then correct and months later possibly make a lower low than 3122$. |
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The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.
It'll be a bull trap. I'll definitely be selling into signs of weakness. Even if the bottom is officially in, we have loads of resistance to work through that'll provide ample pullback for reentry. Anything in the upper $4,000s to lower $5,000s would be a good time to sell. There is a bullish setup in 6h and 12h MACD, probably 1 or 2 higher highs are going to happen in the next 2 - 3 weeks (if the market keeps current pace). And IMO that will be the top and a bull trap. If this will unfold as I expect, about 2 weeks from now I'll post a bearish chart, with a later bottom around 2500$. Still, the weekly PSAR might flip to bullish next week, so not all is bearish. |
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The market is very close to crossing daily MACD into positive, this is usually a good reason for a pump.
My advice, don't buy the top of the (possible) pump, it could be a bull trap.
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Litecoin pumps, Bitcoin may follow soon. But IMO it's not a good time to pump, just before the weekend, it could turn out to be a fakeout.
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By a couple of my EW possible counts, we have not yet seen the final bottom. However, the final 5s of bitcoin corrections tend to get truncated, so... this is a big factor in my own analysis. i've never seen an asset with so many truncated fifths/failed C waves, particular to the downside. it can be dangerous to get caught in the "one more dip" mindset. As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.
agreed, i'd like to see a bullish divergence on the weekly MACD histogram, similar to the january 2015 bottom. it's not required, but it would definitely give me more confidence. Umm, the January 2015 MACD showed a mild bearish divergence, not bullish. By comparison, right now we have a strong bearish divergence. IMO a mild bearish divergence favors truncation, while a strong one does not. The strong indicator of the ending of the bear market was the October 2015 weekly MACD cross into positive, IMO now we'll have to wait a long time for that.  |
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By a couple of my EW possible counts, we have not yet seen the final bottom. However, the final 5s of bitcoin corrections tend to get truncated, so...
As for weekly MACD, it forms a bearish double bottom (bearish divergence), so until I'll see a bullish one, I will doubt that we already saw the final bottom.
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Probably next Monday we'll find out the winner, and I believe extasie is favored.
It took longer than I expected, but IMO now 99% chance extasie's prediction wins. |
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Probably next Monday we'll find out the winner, and I believe extasie is favored.
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There is over a month left, and if in the mean time price will drop below 3202, probably extasie will win.
I'll prepare an EW-based explanation for my prediction (it wasn't entirely a lucky guess) and post in a couple of days.
still curious  I was waiting for the next move to unfold, to improve the chances of my prediction winning. Since the market needs to make a bullish double bottom in 6h - 12h MACD in order to establish a bottom, we may make a lower low, in which case extasie's prediction will probably become true, and it would be up to him to offer a chart explanation. 6h PSAR just flipped to bearish, and if 12h PSAR will flip to bearish too, the market will have a good chance to make the last (for now) lower low. |
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^ 2120 pawel7777 2121 gentlemand 2255 vapourminer 2500 fabiorem 2873 7jaka7 2970 exstasie 3434 Tzupy we got a winner if we do belief YEFI 3650 jadenunderhill 3860 DeathAngel 3876 febo 3996 AlcoHoDL 4027 jojo69 4190 STT 4197 Spaceman_Spiff_Original 4350 Vasilije69 4700 Robin,Hood 4850 ssmc2 4925 criz2fer 4979 Dunkelheit667 4982 BillyBobZorton 4998 Last of the V8s 4999 Vin 5100 Nikola95 5134 LoyceV 5151 d_eddie 5248 iram1011 5264 LFC_Bitcoin 5420 mfort312 5454 supermine 5489 buwaytress 5592 ChinkyEyes 5780 JimboToronto 5824 Jet Cash 5878 talkbitcoin UPDATE in times of bottom warsThere is over a month left, and if in the mean time price will drop below 3202, probably extasie will win. I'll prepare an EW-based explanation for my prediction (it wasn't entirely a lucky guess) and post in a couple of days. |
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There are bearish divergences in the 2h - 24h charts, so this correction is not going to end very soon.
But I am expecting a local bottom around 3,900$ during the next hours, followed by a nice (hopefully) bounce.
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