Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gyrsur]

is Bitcoin done or are our expectations too high? do we need more patience?

[criptix]

Ok work with me here.  How do we achieve the assumption that numbers are a finite field?

Feel free to refer me to beginner level reading to save you typing it all out.

As for a "beginner level" introduction, I'm not really aware of any that isn't gritty rigorous Math. And in that case any would be as good as any other I suppose, since the definitions are always the same (except for perhaps the symbols used). If you feel like digging deeper I'm sure you'll find any number of resources on Google. All my notes and books for these topics are in non-English though, so I can't recommend you any reference here. But alas.


Assumptions are created out of more or less thin air. Generally based on past experiences (I'm not sure if we can arrive at any assumption without making references to previous ones, which is a problem in and of itself). It's also not exactly that numbers "are" a finite field, they can be depending on how many you have to play with. The numbers we usually use are not a finite field, you always have a unique "+1". However.


In the case of finite fields, if you want to go from the "human experience" side you could think of it like this.

If you think that infinity exists, then there's not much reason to argue here since you can just keep adding numbers and always get a unique new one, so 1+1 will always be 2 in that world.

If you however believe that infinity can't exist in reality, then the only conclusion is that any field of numbers must be finite, because you'll eventually run out. And in that world you eventually come full circle, otherwise you can't have a number field that functions in the way we understand numbers. It is the only way to formalize our natural understanding of numbers (that I am currently aware of).


As for what fields are, here's a very brief overview that leaves out a fair deal of the gritty parts that are necessary to formalize this. But this should hopefully give somewhat of a more formal intuition that you could compare against our natural intuition.

A field can be any set of numbers that satisfies a few properties. The most important ones for the topic we're having are the existence of a set of elements (or numbers), the existence of two operations (e.g. addition and multiplication), the existence of a neutral element for each operation, and the existence of an inverse element for each operation.

Let's take {0,1} as the set of numbers. And addition and multiplication as its two operations. The operation "o" (+ or *) now has to ensure that each element has a unique inverse element. So if you take any element X , there must be another element Y such that X o Y spits out the neutral element regarding "o". For addition this is 0 (you add 0, shit happens), for multiplication it's 1 (you multiply by 1, nothing happens). If you think about it, whenever you invert a number you get its neutral, 3 * 1/3 = 1, 3 + (-3) = 0.

If these properties are violated you can somehow show that the whole natural intuition of numbers just breaks down, but I can't think of a good example on the spot. Been too long since I've done anything in this area.


In the usual fields the inverse element would just be -X for addition and 1/x for multiplication. In this finite field you can't do this, because "1/1" clearly does not exist as neither does an element called "-1".

However, with the circular arrangement you can quickly see that:

0+0 = 0
1+1 = 0

0*1 = 0
1*0 = 0
1*1 = 1

Hence, each element has an inverse regarding multiplication and addition, and our intuition still works. This way to look at it satisfies the requirements of a field. It just so happens to be finite. This curiously doesn't work for any set of numbers either, the number of elements has to be infinite, a prime, or a prime power.
If you want to get technical, then "2" in the way we normally understand it won't give you "2+2 = 0", but there is an abstract field that extends {0,1} in a way such that the elements that you could "call '2'" would satisfy 2+2 = 0. You can easily get 2+3=0 for {0,1,2,3,4} with the usual addition though (check this yourself if you'd like as an exercise).


As for 'why' this works, I doubt anybody knows. Emergent properties?

Essentially, fields are merely a formalization of the way in which we naturally came to use numbers based on our experience of reality. And the formalization naturally gives rise to both finite and infinite fields. There are also weird fields that have polynomials as their "numbers" and where "1" is suddenly a polynomial (the constant polynomial 1). But you would never expect either of these by not carefully thinking about the fundamentals, what you already know, the implications of either, or what other ways you could view what you already know in.

These weird mysteries are why I'm against quickly rushing to conclusions on any subject and prefer looking for as many explanations and vantage points as I am currently capable of. The universe has a way to always screw us when we think we "know", and to reward us with new exciting experiences if we remain open.

Quoting this so I don’t lose it. Am working on this as well.  

double quote for safety reasons.

can you guys f***ing tell me what about you're talking??  

EDIT: some CS stuff from your days in university? Formal Language Theory?

Discrete mathematics, second or third semester of computer science

[Gyrsur]

can you guys f***ing tell me what about you're talking??  

Someone (I forgot who) made some post about there being no absolute truths or somesusch.  I object to this as I think it a cover for all sorts of bad behaviours like “alternative facts” so challenged on the basis that 2+2 always = 4.  

Of course I don’t know any higher order mathematics so was quickly proved wrong.  Now I am trying to understand why I was wrong.  

thanks! you mean approach of Mathematical proof?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_proof

EDIT:

Discrete mathematics, second or third semester of computer science

thanks!

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

</hyperbolic nonsense>

You, good sir or madam, are a liar. I never said any such thing.

Sounded like it though to be honest.

I believe I can see where you're coming from, and can see some sense in it if I'm correct. But even then, your method of delivery probably fuels the fire more than it helps put it out.


If Muslims publicly spoke out against the problematic aspects of Islam and terrorism and publicly sought reform on a global scale, would you redact or amend your statement that Muslims are not innocent?

[bitserve]

is Bitcoin done or are our expectations too high? do we need more patience?

Bitcoin is surely NOT done. Our expectations are probably too high... but that depends on individual expectations. For sure we need more patience.

[Last of the V8s]

[Gyrsur]

is Bitcoin done or are our expectations too high? do we need more patience?

Bitcoin is surely NOT done. Our expectations are probably too high... but that depends on individual expectations. For sure we need more patience.

you're probably right. I remember my expectation in 2015/16 was to see the break of 10k mark at the earliest in 2020. and then... BitFinex and Tether in 2017...

[Ibian]

</hyperbolic nonsense>

You, good sir or madam, are a liar. I never said any such thing.

Sounded like it though to be honest.

I believe I can see where you're coming from, and can see some sense in it if I'm correct. But even then, your method of delivery probably fuels the fire more than it helps put it out.


If Muslims publicly spoke out against the problematic aspects of Islam and terrorism and publicly sought reform on a global scale, would you redact or amend your statement that Muslims are not innocent?

Sure, to people who project their own dark sides a lot. Which is again a primarily low-amygdala trait, or leftie trait. You'll notice you and I didn't get in a spat over it, for example?

My delivery is intentional. People get all kinds of honest when they get riled up. Quickly identifies who is worth my time.

Muslims as a whole will not do that. They would no longer be Muslim. It goes directly against the core of their faith.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Our awkward bastard step children ltc and eth are both up well over 5% today..can we and perhaps a better question, should we be matching them? Breaking above 4.2k would be a 5% gain for btc today. Also of note is that there hasent been but a small closeout of shorts.

You have provided an exacting set of background facts that should justify a decent BTC shorts-a-squeezing.. let's say, at least to $4,500, just to siphon them out even though $4,900-ish would be nicer to make it an even-Steven $1k upwards movement....

BTC is like USA among other crypto now.

It is a lot bigger than others so it is way harder to move it upwards or downwards.

A small shitty country can grow %10+ in a year and that still wouldn't make them happy and on the other hand, when USA grows %3 in a year they celebrate it for days.

Shitcoins are like those are small countries.

It is probably too late but I wish I bought more LTC While it was $30.

If you do you may want to throw <0.5 of your 5 BTC at shitcoin projects. Do thorough research and make sure to dump on the way up though. They are generally hit and run in the short to medium term and only few will prosper in the long run.
But opportunities are abundant and will remain to be so for a while. Just don't get greedy and use too many of your hard earned BTC or you'll fuck yourself over. 10% is a solid upper limit that will neither hurt you substantially nor produce so little return that it'd be a waste of time.
Also gets you to study the space more, and I have no doubt that shitcoins will be the new fundraising method for entrepreneurs as the space matures.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Can this child get a bann? He is telling racis things and still he can speak on this forum..

It's called freedom of speech. If you want to solve problems you need to be able to learn about them, and if he is a problem to you then you have nothing to gain by muting him.

[Ibian]

Can this child get a bann? He is telling racis things and still he can speak on this forum..

It's called freedom of speech. If you want to solve problems you need to be able to learn about them, and if he is a problem to you then you have nothing to gain by muting him.

It'd make him feel better. For a very short time. Then he goes on search of someone else to get banned.

It's just a chase for a dopamine fix. Political power is more addictive than cocaine, even on such a small scale, that's why they do it. But otherwise solid advice there.

[criptix]

@ibian

Western society is based on invidualism thus it is hard to accept that muslims as a whole are all criminals, murderers and rapists.

Personally i dont believe it either.

There are bad and good people.

Sometimes there are more bad then good people, but that doesnt reject above statement.

[Tzupy]

I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...

Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then?

If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive.
But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery.

weekly macd is positive now?
do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months?

No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago.
And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD).
What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon.
In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump).

Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, so the 5200$ scenario has now good chances to become true.

[Ibian]

@ibian

Western society is based on invidualism thus it is hard to accept that muslims as a whole are all criminals, murderers and rapists.

Personally i dont believe it either.

There are bad and good people.

Sometimes there are more bad then good people, but that doesnt reject above statement.

Actually it's based on groups of people murdering the fuck out of one another, and later christianity. The modern incarnation of the west is an entirely new thing, and we may not have picked the best options along the way.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

ibian, are you really serious?
Can this child get a bann? He is telling racis things and still he can speak on this forum..

Anything I don't agree with is racist and should be banned.  Let's start by banning all the Jews, you know, the racists who took control of Russia then killed 20-40 million white Christian Russians and most of Germany too:



(((Ehrenburg)))

Ten out of ten Jews agree guns need to be banned to make the goyim easier to enslave and to facilitate the Kalergi plan.

The irony. His name appears German.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

We have plenty of coal allegedly

Supposedly 100 years of coal in the US, but I don't know many people with coal powered cars.  So yea, shouldn't be a problem powering buildings in the US with a combination of coal and nuclear, but there's no substitute for oil to power the cars.  The future I imagine for the west is an oil shock and a large societal shift to where western countries are going to be riding around on little motorcycles that consume small amounts of gas like they do in Asian countries.  Then some electric cars here and there, with the big gas guzzlers only being used to transport food or other materials.

As for this ArrieMoller and Trollgoossens guy, Europe has just about no fossil fuels, so you guys are cucked unless you beg Putin to not let you die.

Can always charge batteries with electricity generated from nuclear power while transitioning to solar and fusion. The transition also won't be nearly as bad as you make it out to be if it's a necessity. Necessity implies disproportional profits, which from your perspective the Jews would be so happy to provide that they'll make it work. If they don't they'd be stuck with little to nothing and a lot of mostly useless money.

I instead to be 100% energy self sufficient (car & house) within the next 24 months.  Currently have a Powerwall2 on order so I can capture my solar for night time use instead of dumping it into the grid. It’s 13.5kwh so not enough to take me off the grid altogether but I’m getting close.  

Electric car is next. Big oil and the Saudis can go fuck themselves.  Looking at the Taycan, Model 3 Performance but there are some other interesting ones in the pipeline.  Like this electric Peugeot concept.





No need to muck about with nuclear, the future is already here.

My plan as well. Self-sufficiency is always a good idea and I love tech in general, so any way for me to vote with my wallet for the development of technologies is welcome. I can't wait for commercial and efficient full glass solar panels. Will build some sexy shit with that.

Imagine a glass bridge on a pond/lake that happens to be made of solar panels that will illuminate a pavilion in the middle of it. Or a grow-house made out of solar panel glass.

[mindrust]

</hyperbolic nonsense>

You, good sir or madam, are a liar. I never said any such thing.

Sounded like it though to be honest.

I believe I can see where you're coming from, and can see some sense in it if I'm correct. But even then, your method of delivery probably fuels the fire more than it helps put it out.


If Muslims publicly spoke out against the problematic aspects of Islam and terrorism and publicly sought reform on a global scale, would you redact or amend your statement that Muslims are not innocent?

Let's put it that way:

I don't like Islam. I don't want to be associated with Islam neither. I never went to a Mosque. Never Prayed, never did one religious ritual.

As much as I don't like Islam, I also don't like Christianity or Judaism. Any extremists from any of these religions (actually all religions) are the people I don't want to be near of.

Ibian has the right to stay away from the Muslims. He may not like them. He can do those.

But while he is doing that, he also says anything the Christians did in the past was right because it was always the other side who provocated his side.

That's not a healthy way to think imo.

[Last of the V8s]

I was waiting for a decision, between bullish and bearish scenarios, since 6h PSAR was close to flip to bullish, and 12h PSAR close to flip to bearish.
With this bi-directional spike, both flipped, so no clue how this will unfold...

Where do you think we are compared to 2015? Or do you see it unfolding differently than back then?

If this will play similar to 2015, then about 6 months from now weekly MACD should cross into positive.
But I suspect this bear market is of a higher order than the 2014 one, so I wouldn't count on a quick recovery.

weekly macd is positive now?
do you mean it has to go red again first over these 6 months?

No, weekly MACD (the signal) is deeply into negative now, but MACD divergence has crossed into green 5 weeks ago.
And the weekly MACD signal also made a bearish divergence with the April 2018 MACD low (both lower price and lower MACD).
What I mean is that the weekly MACD signal should cross into positive, in order to make the case for a bull market, but I don't see this happening soon.
In the meantime, I hope the 5200$ scenario becomes true, I am still long (bought just before the Feb 8th pump).

Daily PSAR has flipped to bullish, so the 5200$ scenario has now good chances to become true.

Amazing. I asked some traders about PSAR, and they were (3 out of 4) a bit sniffy. One has always been very pro it, which is why my ears pricked up when you mentioned it. Same detractors though are predicting 5200 with their own preferred indicators. So ... soon.

[GreatArkansas]

Our awkward bastard step children ltc and eth are both up well over 5% today..can we and perhaps a better question, should we be matching them? Breaking above 4.2k would be a 5% gain for btc today. Also of note is that there hasent been but a small closeout of shorts.

You have provided an exacting set of background facts that should justify a decent BTC shorts-a-squeezing.. let's say, at least to $4,500, just to siphon them out even though $4,900-ish would be nicer to make it an even-Steven $1k upwards movement....

BTC is like USA among other crypto now.

It is a lot bigger than others so it is way harder to move it upwards or downwards.

A small shitty country can grow %10+ in a year and that still wouldn't make them happy and on the other hand, when USA grows %3 in a year they celebrate it for days.

Shitcoins are like those are small countries.

It is probably too late but I wish I bought more LTC While it was $30.

If you do you may want to throw <0.5 of your 5 BTC at shitcoin projects. Do thorough research and make sure to dump on the way up though. They are generally hit and run in the short to medium term and only few will prosper in the long run.
But opportunities are abundant and will remain to be so for a while. Just don't get greedy and use too many of your hard earned BTC or you'll fuck yourself over. 10% is a solid upper limit that will neither hurt you substantially nor produce so little return that it'd be a waste of time.
Also gets you to study the space more, and I have no doubt that shitcoins will be the new fundraising method for entrepreneurs as the space matures.

This could help him....

Want to share this for everyone. This is really good for risk management.


He really explained it very well:

Read more here: https://twitter.com/CryptoCobain/status/922197320292323328

[Ibian]

</hyperbolic nonsense>

You, good sir or madam, are a liar. I never said any such thing.

Sounded like it though to be honest.

I believe I can see where you're coming from, and can see some sense in it if I'm correct. But even then, your method of delivery probably fuels the fire more than it helps put it out.


If Muslims publicly spoke out against the problematic aspects of Islam and terrorism and publicly sought reform on a global scale, would you redact or amend your statement that Muslims are not innocent?

Let's put it that way:

I don't like Islam. I don't want to be associated with Islam neither. I never went to a Mosque. Never Prayed, never did one religious ritual.

As much as I don't like Islam, I also don't like Christianity or Judaism. Any extemists from any of these religions (actually all religions) are the people I don't want to be near of.

Ibian has the right to stay away from the Muslims. He may not like them. He can do those.

But while he is doing that, he also says anything the Christians did in the past was right because it was always the other side who provocated his side.

That's not a healthy way to think imo.

It's the only way to think. That's why we do it. If you care less about yourself than someone who wants to kill you do, you will be the one who dies. Same goes for nations. Life is a competition.

"Like" has nothing to do with it. It is what it is.