So, 2020 we had the Covid black swan before the bull run. Now it looks like the WW3 black swan.
I didn't sweat during COVID (still have a Discord screenshot from March 2020 where I had suggested this would be the last opportunity for the middle class to acquire a whole coin at 4-5k)... nobody believed me back then. And I'm definitely not sweating right now either. Another excellent buying opportunity. |
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inb4 XMR ban (built-in mixer)  |
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Have they managed to trace the stolen 216 BTC?
I would expect chain analysis to be involved in such a theft...
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BTC>In my mind, when I think about layered software stack architecture, I always make an analogy with the Bitcoin network and the IPv4 network (IPv6 being another network).
They all have finite IPv4 addresses of 32 bits in size, IPv6 has 128 bits, and Bitcoin also has a finite number.
So, I see Lightning Network scaling similar to how I saw IPv4 address exhaustion.
“The IPv4 addressing structure provides an insufficient number of publicly routable addresses to give a distinct address to every Internet device or service. This problem has been mitigated for some time by changes in the address allocation and routing infrastructure of the Internet. The transition from classful network addressing to Classless Inter-Domain Routing delayed the exhaustion of addresses substantially. In addition, network address translation (NAT) permits Internet service providers and enterprises to masquerade private network address space with only one publicly routable IPv4 address on the Internet interface of a main Internet router, instead of allocating a public address to each network device.”
Source: Wikipedia
The problem with my analogy may not be the best, but I’m not here to impose my view, just to learn from each other in a respectful chit-chat.. SegWit for BTC is the equivalent of NAT for IPv4. It's a very good analogy, but only tech savvy people will get it... Why senior board memebers like Frank is pissed about? Franky has his own opinions about BTC scaling. I’m imagining F here on a small island in the UK and his opinion about that. The DWP - The Department for Work and Pensions should sell its block of 16,777,216 IP addresses.” https://petition.parliament.uk/archived/petitions/38744  Sell the IP block and buy BTC. Profit!  |
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BTC>In my mind, when I think about layered software stack architecture, I always make an analogy with the Bitcoin network and the IPv4 network (IPv6 being another network).
They all have finite IPv4 addresses of 32 bits in size, IPv6 has 128 bits, and Bitcoin also has a finite number.
So, I see Lightning Network scaling similar to how I saw IPv4 address exhaustion.
“The IPv4 addressing structure provides an insufficient number of publicly routable addresses to give a distinct address to every Internet device or service. This problem has been mitigated for some time by changes in the address allocation and routing infrastructure of the Internet. The transition from classful network addressing to Classless Inter-Domain Routing delayed the exhaustion of addresses substantially. In addition, network address translation (NAT) permits Internet service providers and enterprises to masquerade private network address space with only one publicly routable IPv4 address on the Internet interface of a main Internet router, instead of allocating a public address to each network device.”
Source: Wikipedia
The problem with my analogy may not be the best, but I’m not here to impose my view, just to learn from each other in a respectful chit-chat.. SegWit for BTC is the equivalent of NAT for IPv4. It's a very good analogy, but only tech savvy people will get it... Why senior board memebers like Frank is pissed about? Franky has his own opinions about BTC scaling. |
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BTC>In my mind, when I think about layered software stack architecture, I always make an analogy with the Bitcoin network and the IPv4 network (IPv6 being another network).
They all have finite IPv4 addresses of 32 bits in size, IPv6 has 128 bits, and Bitcoin also has a finite number.
So, I see Lightning Network scaling similar to how I saw IPv4 address exhaustion.
“The IPv4 addressing structure provides an insufficient number of publicly routable addresses to give a distinct address to every Internet device or service. This problem has been mitigated for some time by changes in the address allocation and routing infrastructure of the Internet. The transition from classful network addressing to Classless Inter-Domain Routing delayed the exhaustion of addresses substantially. In addition, network address translation (NAT) permits Internet service providers and enterprises to masquerade private network address space with only one publicly routable IPv4 address on the Internet interface of a main Internet router, instead of allocating a public address to each network device.”
Source: Wikipedia
The problem with my analogy may not be the best, but I’m not here to impose my view, just to learn from each other in a respectful chit-chat.. SegWit for BTC is the equivalent of NAT for IPv4. It's a very good analogy, but only tech savvy people will get it... |
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Any idea what caused the recent fee spike?
scammers with alot of money from victims of last years spammed meme junk called 'ordinals' are now scamming via spamming with their next project of junk tokens called 'runes'they know they cannot put their scammed value into a regulated CEX to convert to fiat(kyc fear). they dont care about the value they scammed as it was "free money" for them (very low cost to create the junk they sold to idiot victims). so they dont care about the coin they accumulated, so they have no fear of spending it as high fee to spam the network with their next scam.. these scam junk projects die when victims stop buying them and then when the scammers see people are not buying their junk token they stop spamming it and start a new version of junk to promote new scam. those promoting these junk promotions and wanting them to go viral and not stopped are usually associated or part of the scammer/spammer crew Casey launches his Runes token standard on the halving in April – at blockheight 840,000. It could be a giant boost in fees to Bitcoin miners at the very moment they need it the most!  |
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Any idea what caused the recent fee spike? https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000013412024e8979a0e0c8fb22aaa5fb7b099feedd1991f9Up to 280 sats/vB.  I'm afraid it's the users being torn a new a-hole, not miners... miners love high fees, especially with the halving being imminent. Regarding halving, it's always the same discussion every 4 years. Mining (in terms of purchasing power/USD valuation) becomes more and more profitable. It definitely is more profitable today compared to the 50 BTC era, there's no question about that. Hashing competition means that older ASICs (higher nanometers) become less competitive. Lower-nanometer ASICs will remain competitive for the foreseeable future. I don't worry about the miners' income. Even when the block subsidy will be a few sats in the far future, every transaction will cost a minimum of $1000 (in today's purchasing power, not when a Big Mac will cost $1000 ). The last halving went a bit unnoticed due to COVID craziness, but the same dynamics applied back then. BTC was worth 4 digits... Some people will disagree, but the increasing hashrate/competition drives the BTC price higher as time goes by. Why? Because miners are forced to spend more money on ASICs & electricity, therefore they must sell their BTC for a higher price. There's a reason BTC was dirt cheap back in 2009-2010... it's because with low amounts of electricity and a CPU/GPU you could produce tons of bitcoins. In 5 years from now the BTC network will probably have 10 times the hashrate compared to today, but it also won't fall below 6 digits. Economics 101 |
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Everything is fun and games until one of the users wants to close their channel. Every single time that I've tried to do that, it selected more sat/vb than needed. And that's in different software, not just from a single. LN software doesn't allow you to set fees with pinpoint accuracy (custom fee)? Just generic low/mid/high presets? |
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I expect FED to start a new QE by Q4 2024 at the latest (the climate/green transition would be a good excuse)... they won't let deflation kicking in, not to mention the US elections almost always coincide with a new QE round and halving (coincidentally or not, only Satoshi knows). Their mandate is to keep inflation at 2%. Of course there is no penalty/punishment if they miss the target (as we saw back in 2021-2022). I also expect AI & robots to apply a huge deflationary pressure later on this decade (by 2030 at the latest), so they'll be inclined to print even more money to keep inflation at 2%. That's good for BTC. Few people realize this, but FED can theoretically print an unlimited amount of dollars, provided inflation stays at 2%. It would be possible with AI, robots and unlimited resources (coming from the space perhaps). Of course that's an optimistic scenario, assuming that something really bad (Taiwan invasion/WW3) doesn't happen. |
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Sure, but you cannot control what someone does with their newly acquired money...
So if someone gets "tainted" money from you and deposits it in a CEX/bank (some people want to liquidate BTC for fiat, or buy instantly BTC with fiat), then you should expect a call.
But, how will anyone know who I am. Perhaps you mean if I buy something online. Well in that case, I will just lead the "interrogators" to the address that sent them to me. Not necessarily online. Do you live in the real world? If so, you've probably made physical transactions, arranged appointments and this usually involves phone communication (so they will have your number). When a police officer asks where you got that money from (that's what I mean by interrogation, not beating you up), you will have to reveal his phone number, even if you don't know his name/surname/address. Phone numbers/SIM cards aren't anonymous since 2009 last time I checked. In general, if we buy the whole "tainted bitcoin" idea, then we deserve the strict banking system that we currently have! I don't like the banking system. It is what it is. But how are you going to fund your debit card? How do you pay taxes? Do you use banks in general? Regarding "tainted" BTC, I prefer to let the free market decide. From what I've heard, there are people who are willing to exchange "tainted" BTC with clean coinbase outputs for less money than it's actually worth. If people are willing to get rid of it for a cheaper price, then who am I to argue with them? |
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As soon as that "tainted" banknote enters the banking system, you're fucked. They will freeze the money and the police will interrogate you where you got it from.
It's the same thing with satoshis (each one has a serial number based on the order in which it was mined, that's how Ordinal NFTs are created). BTC is electronic cash (which has pros and cons).
Tainted banknotes are like a hot potato. The last person who gets them and decides to deposit them in a bank is royally fucked.
This argument actually strengthens my opinion that cash and bitcoin are both fungible. If you are afraid, the solution is super simple: (1) Don't deposit the cash in a bank, just use it to buy something. (2) Don't send your BTC to a CEX, just use it to buy something. Well in fact: (a) Self-custody your bitcoin. (b) Use it as it's supposed to be used, as a cash system.
Just to make some fun, I hereby volunteer to accept any coins anybody thinks are "tainted". If anyone is desperate to get rid of them, I am here. That's a joke obviously, in case anyone is super sensitive and gets mad about it
Sure, but you cannot control what someone does with their newly acquired money... So if someone gets "tainted" money from you and deposits it in a CEX/bank (some people want to liquidate BTC for fiat, or buy instantly BTC with fiat), then you should expect a call. |
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All countries/central banks issue banknotes with serial numbers for a reason... there is no exception.
This is a long-time international practice, so I'm surprised you've never heard it before Don't make up things about me. Of course I know what serial numbers are. During a bank robbery, if a robber has taken the bait money, details of this can be passed on to the police. If the money is found in the possession of someone, or used to purchase goods, this can make it easier to find the suspect of the bank robbery. That's not the same as blaming innocent people. I'll end this discussion here, it's far too off-topic. I didn't make up anything, you insinuated that this isn't a common practice in many countries. This isn't a "police problem" as you claimed, it happens everywhere: https://www.fbi.gov/history/famous-cases/charles-ross-kidnappingAnd don't make up things I never said. I said they will interrogate you, not blame/jail you: As soon as that "tainted" banknote enters the banking system, you're fucked. They will freeze the money and the police will interrogate you where you got it from. |
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You may be innocent ~, but they won't care. It sounds like you have a police-problem, not a money-problem. I'm glad I live in a country where I'm innocent until proven guilty. All countries/central banks issue banknotes with serial numbers for a reason... there is no exception. This is a long-time international practice, so I'm surprised you've never heard it before: https://www.reddit.com/r/explainlikeimfive/comments/3ou4h4/eli5_how_are_the_serial_numbers_on_banknotes/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bait_moneyBait money or bait bills are bills with known serial numbers, used by banks to aid the tracing of bank robbers.
The serial numbers are recorded by the bank either by making a copy or by listing in a log book. During a bank robbery, if a robber has taken the bait money, details of this can be passed on to the police. If the money is found in the possession of someone, or used to purchase goods, this can make it easier to find the suspect of the bank robbery.[1] Bait bills were used by investigators of the 1932 Lindbergh kidnapping in the United States.[2] In the future it might get even worse: https://www.eetimes.com/euro-bank-notes-to-embed-rfid-chips-by-2005/https://www.fleur-de-coin.com/eurocoins/banknote-rfidAs soon as that "tainted" banknote enters the banking system, you're fucked. They will freeze the money and the police will interrogate you where you got it from. I have never heard of this happening before. Cashing into the bank is much rarer than cashing out, maybe that's why. Usually, you have more money in the bank than in cash. Even if it happens, what do the police expect from me? Cash is untraceable. I have no damn clue where I sent or received a particular banknote. Any response I give to the source of the money cannot be verified. I wouldn't say it's rare... many people (especially shops) who get paid in cash make ATM deposits on a daily basis. That's why they have more money in the bank (the money has to come from somewhere). |
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I can't read the site, but this isn't something I worry about. Almost every banknote has cocaine traces on it, and given enough rotation most banknotes must have been in the hands of criminals. That's not a problem: money is fungible. It's a problem if you're personally dealing with criminals. So don't do that As soon as that "tainted" banknote enters the banking system, you're fucked. They will freeze the money and the police will interrogate you where you got it from. What's wrong with catching murderers? The police won't come after you, but you may have information that can help them find the real bad guys. If you tell them you received the money when you sold cocaine, you have a problem. But if you got it for selling your car, I don't expect them to blame you. Use Google Translate. It has nothing to do with cocaine... When an robbery/abduction is performed, the police keeps a record of the serial numbers of the stolen banknotes. Just like AML/chain analysis keeps track of certain addresses/satoshis. As soon as you try to deposit stolen banknotes in a bank, they will confiscate them and interrogate you. You may be innocent (just like someone who received "tainted" BTC and then deposited it to a CEX), but they won't care. So yes, you may argue that banknotes are fungible, but that only applies to hand2hand transactions. If you want true fungibility, you better use metallic coins (they don't have serial numbers), but you won't be able to hoard large amounts of money with 1-2 eurocoins. |
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Initially, Bitcoin coins do not have the property of identity and fungibility.
Not true. Bitcoin is fungible just like cash is. If I give you $100 in cash and you give me $100 in cash, then the only thing we both need to do is to make sure the dollar bills aren't fake. If they are both legit, then we are exactly where we started from. If I give you $100 in BTC and you give me $100 in BTC, then the only thing we both need to do it to make sure the BTC is legit. Luckily, bitcoin does that on its own after some block confirmations. So we just need to wait a little. Banknotes have serial numbers... ever wondered what happens if you get a banknote that comes from a robbery/ VIP abduction? As soon as that "tainted" banknote enters the banking system, you're fucked. They will freeze the money and the police will interrogate you where you got it from. It's the same thing with satoshis (each one has a serial number based on the order in which it was mined, that's how Ordinal NFTs are created). BTC is electronic cash (which has pros and cons). If you don't plan on using banks/ATMs (centralized exchanges are also semi-regulated banks), then sure, peer2peer/hand2hand transactions are not affected at all. But you already know how hard it is to avoid using banks these days... Tainted banknotes are like a hot potato. The last person who gets them and decides to deposit them in a bank is royally fucked. |
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