The block subsidy might only be 1 sat, but there are still all the fees to consider, which will result in a block reward far higher than a single sat and easily divided between multiple participants. That still doesn't answer my question: How are you going to divide the block subsidy (not the block reward/fees) among multiple participants? 1 BTC could be worth the equivalent of billions of $$$ by 2136... so 1 sat could matter a lot by then. |
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those taking out the loan are not the unprofitable farms. nor the "start-up"
it will be the profitable well established farms in the best economic setting already.. that, instead of waiting 6-18 months to accumulate coin for next upgrade season in 2 years.(normal processs). will take a loan now grab much more asics now and really drive themselves up into the higher % of hashrate ownership to reap more coin per block sooner
the aim.. is obvious.. if binance can trigger the hashrate competition to raise the costs of mining(underlying value) this then snowballs to raise the cost of all the other miners in speculation zone above the underlying value. which then pushes the price higher because those selling low wont sell so low and those buying will happily buy higher with the new raised low. thus moving the market price up Sounds like a win-win situation to me. |
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To be fair, I think Binance already supports the BTC ecosystem more than I expected. They have no obligation to do so. They already have their own shitcoin (BNB) and yet, they support BTC by offering 0% trading fees (doesn't apply to BNB strangely enough) AND loans to struggling ASIC miners. If you have faith that BTC will increase at least 10 times (200k USD = conservative estimation) during the next bull run (2025), then repaying those loans is a no-brainer. Yes, it's a gamble, but more of a calculated risk I would say. All halvings so far (2012, 2016, 2020) have spurred new bull runs/ATHs like clockwork (2013, 2017, 2021). Some people think it's a coincidence. 3 times in a row, though?  Until the block subsidy becomes highly insignificant (could take decades to happen) this pattern will keep repeating like fractals do. ps: I'm wondering how pools are going to divide 1 sat to multiple miners during 2136-2140. It's literally impossible with the vanilla BTC protocol, unless they use extra subdivisions/decimals like LN already does.  |
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 If you want a straight line, you can take a look at the heartbeat of a dead person.  Living/evolving things are never stable by definition. |
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if they intentionally default on their debt, they certainly have a bigger plan behind them Yes, they (WEF) do have a bigger plan... it's called "The Great -Currency/Debt- Reset". They will introduce CBDCs after fiat currencies collapse (due to hyperinflation). They will erase ALL debt (public/private), as long as you concede your property rights (houses, cars etc.) to them (WEF techno-feudalists).  |
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Having that in mind, after the 2020 halving, we saw bitcoin rallied to $68k ATH from a previous price at $20k ATH in 2016. A slight correction, the previous ATH occurred in 2017 and it was around December. $100k has been an expectation for bitcoin before we did hit the bear market. It remains an expectation still and could be archived after the halving. Well we have to be aware and have to stay realistic that there is no guarantee about $100K after the 2024 halving. It's just a hope that may not come true especially if the world economic conditions get bad. I can't expect that $100K ATH to happen between 2024-2025, there has to be something big happening there including an influx of institutional investors and more adoption. Optimistic of course, but be wise. Climate change mitigation measures/green energy (costing many trillions of dollars), China invading Taiwan, USD no longer the global reserve currency, hyperinflation kicking in and potentially hyperbitcoinization... These events will happen around 2025, just in time for the next bull run. |
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...but 100k BTC should be the new conservative hmm?
Judging from what the previous ATHs after halvings were, that each halving more than doubled the prices of their predecessors, I will put the next ATH after halving at around $190,000 to $220,000 per Bitcoin. Yes, I know you may say it's not likely to get that high but you've to remember that no one ever thought Bitcoin price would get this high from the past. Even in 2017 after the ATH and its eventual collapse to $3,200 in 2019 or so, no one thought Bitcoin would rise from that near annihilation to blow past $68,000 in 2021. More than double, yes... but ignoring that it was roughly 20x, followed by roughly 3 times in the last 2 halvings? I'm not saying I don't believe we'll do another double (so that's 130k) but 220k is just about the same "3x" of last halving. Percentage increase from ATH to ATH has been shortening, not expanding...Unless something radical happens (hyperinflation in US/EU, CBDC/UBI/social credit dystopia)... then I expect BTC to reach millions. |
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Honestly, it's all just baseless speculation, the possibility of US default is impossible, they have built their empire since the 2nd world war and it must be said that they are so powerful that no one can break their monopoly. Really? History has taught us that all empires fall eventually... Ancient Rome, Byzantine, Ottoman Empire. See a pattern here? Even global reserve currencies tend to change like clockwork every century (Portugal, Spain, France, Great Britain, USA, China and/or BTC coming next?). No one wants war to happen Not true. WEF wants a war to advance their Great Reset agenda (Putin has been invited by WEF many times before the Ukraine war started). They're not as romantic as you are. They are ruthless and thirsty for power/total domination. "The powers that be" also wanted a war 80-100 years ago and it happened (WW1/2). History repeats all the time. It's a huge fractal, just like the stock/crypto market. |
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Like clockwork:  |
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Intersting post, but i see there are alot of factors that are going to affect prices this time. Including mining costs, market conditions.. I guess we are going to see big debate on this in future.. but for sure with halving Bitcoin will become more precious.
I think the biggest one will be the market conditions, it’s going to be hard because at the end of the day there is a big reason for people to not invest into something when they are not sure about the whole market, like if stocks, the world economy and all is still bad like today then it is not going to be great even after the halving. Look at the last halving, t happened right before the biggest inflation problem and money printing period of the world and of course last one was followed by a huge huge increase in the price. This time, it looks like either recession or maybe there will be some sort of situation where it will be recovering by that time hopefully. The next halving will coincide with climate QE: https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/one-bank-reveals-dismal-truth-about-150-trillion-crusade-against-climate-change |
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Why does everyone in Commiefornia catch the woke virus?  And there's no "vaccine" apparently... Not entirely true. The vaccine is manufactured exclusively in Texas. What do you mean? |
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Jack Dorsey and Block are probably the closest ones to strike PP. He still leans in to the left/woke crowd tho. That's why I don't trust him. He allowed Twitter to become a woke hivemind. His transformation from 2010 to 2020 is amazing (in a bad way). Why does everyone in Commiefornia catch the woke virus? And there's no "vaccine" apparently... |
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Κάνω mine BEAM.
Το loss δεν σε ενδιαφέρει αν πιστεύεις ότι θα ανέβει στο μέλλον...
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Δε νομίζω, που λέει για KYC; Δεν το λέει ευθέως, αλλά υπάρχει προϊστορία: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1517215736606957573https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/current-affairs/authenticate-all-real-humans-will-elon-musk-end-anonymity-on-twitter-122042700081_1.htmlΠολλά BTC είναι ταυτοποιημένα με KYC... Είναι σαν αυτό που κάνουν πολλές υπηρεσίες και ζητάνε κινητό. Μπορεί να μην ζητάνε τα στοιχεία, αλλά το κινητό είναι ταυτοποιημένο (ήμουν αντίθετος με το KYC εκεί, γιατί ποτέ δεν θεώρησα σοβαρό πρόβλημα τους φαρσέρ, σε αντίθεση με τα bots που έχουν γίνει επιδημία πλέον). Το είχα πει* κάποτε σε έναν πανίβλακα πράσινο moderator διπλανού forum και μου λέει «μπα, συνωμοσιολόγος είσαι». * από όταν ήρθε το KYC στα καρτοκινητά στην Ελλάδα το 2009, η Αμερική όλως τυχαίως σταμάτησε να ζητάει VISA για να ταξιδέψουν Έλληνες πολίτες εκεί (πας κανονικά με το πατσαβουρόχαρτο). Εφάπαξ πληρωμή είναι μία λύση (one-time payment), αλλά δεν χρειάζεται KYC. Εγώ θα προτιμούσα να έφτιαχνες δωρεάν accounts και να πίστωνες μονάδες για οποιαδήποτε ενέργεια. Π.χ., θες να κάνεις tweet; 100 satoshis. Για να μη στέλνεις BTC κάθε φορά που θέλεις να κάνεις tweet, πίστωσε 100,000 sats και έχε τα για 1,000 tweets.
Ένα καλύτερο μέτρο για να σταματήσουν να σου στέλνουν PMs bots είναι ο καθένας ξεχωριστά να έχει ρύθμιση που να απαιτεί να του στέλνεις μερικά sats για να σταλεί το PM, αλλά χωρίς να είναι αναγκαστικό. Εγώ στο Twitter μου θα ζητούσα να μου στείλεις απλώς 100 sats (για όλη τη μελλοντική συζήτηση). Αυτό θα αύξανε και την υϊοθέτηση (θέλω να πιστεύω).
Προτιμώ εφάπαξ πληρωμή. Και ναι, θα αύξανε την υιοθέτηση, αλλά δεν είμαι σίγουρος αν τους νοιάζει μόνο αυτό. |
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"If you're not woke/SJW-friendly, you will get a fine from the thought police."Okay PayPal! ps: Shame this service was founded by Elon Musk... see how fast things can change in just 2 decades?
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Κάτι έχεις καταλάβει λάθος. Το KYC (αν και είναι θεωρητικά λύση στο να καταπολεμηθούν τα bot farms) δεν προτείνεται από κανέναν λογικό άνθρωπο που να ξέρω, για να μειωθούν τα bots. Λύσεις υπάρχουν αλλά δεν υλοποιούνται γιατί υπάρχουν συμφέροντα όπως είπες. Μία λύση (η αγαπημένη μου) είναι να στέλνουμε ένα μικρό ποσό sats κάθε φορά που είτε στέλνουμε μήνυμα είτε υποβάλουμε ποστ. Άλλη λύση είναι τα captchas (αλλά με τέτοια ραγδαία ανάπτυξη της νοημοσύνης των Η/Υ, θα γίνει δύσκολο για τον μέσο άνθρωπο).
Παλιότερα για να αντιμετωπιστεί το email spam σκέφτηκαν το Proof-of-Work (που να ήξεραν αργότερα που θα χρησιμοποιούταν). Κάτι τέτοιο όμως δεν θα δουλέψει, γιατί ο μέσος άνθρωπος με το κινητό δεν μπορεί να ανταγωνιστεί τον hacker με τα ASICs που θα πουλάει για πλάκα τα accounts με το κιλό. Οπότε χρησιμοποιούμε το "νόμισμα του Proof-of-Work", AKA "bitcoin", ΑΚΑ "ο hacker διασφαλίζει την μείωση των bots".
Το KYC θα κάνει τα πράγματα πολύ χειρότερα, γιατί τη στιγμή που θα υλοποιηθεί, τότε θα σταματήσει να υπάρχει ανωνυμία στα social. Και είμαι σίγουρος πως πολλοί θέλουν ανωνυμία στα social. Απλό παράδειγμα (υπάρχουν άπειροι), PlanB.
Μάλλον έχει καταλάβει λάθος ο Saylor τότε: https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1576297909993484290Μιλάει για εφάπαξ πληρωμή 100k sats ανά λογαριασμό (υπερβολικό το βρίσκω σαν ποσό, αλλά θα μπορούσε να μειωθεί). Και επειδή είναι κώλος και βρακί με τον Musk (που αγόρασε το Twitter), ποιός ξέρει τι ετοιμάζουν... ΥΓ: Μου έρχονται vibes από ID 2020. Ο δε Musk προωθεί και το Neuralink. Συμπτώσεις (θέλω να πιστεύω)... |
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There is only one possibility of US collapse if the EU joins hands with China and Russia, but that will never happen. US will collapse when China invades Taiwan (because -TSMC- reasons)... there's nothing Uncle Sam can do about that. Any counterattack will instigate WW3. |
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