Also price above 19.5 we need it back above 20k still. But it's a start.
We’ll see. I doubt we are anywhere close to a recovery, due to the flock of black swans which threaten to continue arriving. But who knows. This is Bitcoin, which turns around and rockets up or down without warning. Absolutely, I'm not calling a bottom here but we need to go above 20k to have any hope of even a temporary bounce. However, I do think it is possible that it does bottom, everyone, and I mean everyone believes that there are several large stupid companies out there that will 100% be liquidated very soon. While that does seem likely, these companies are opaque and we have no idea what is going on behind the scenes. They may not be as bad off as we think, or perhaps they are getting private bailouts in the background. It’s Bitcoin right, anything can happen. And if we don’t get the promised liquidations there is going to be a lot of unhappy shorts/sellers out there who will need to adjust their strategy. |
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Should have sold  To balance that out, I have set new personal text. The space is too short to add appropriate qualifications, so it is not a promise or binding commitment; but it is essentially my attitude. NOT SELLING for fiat. Not to hold fiat. Hahaha, I was waiting to see how long till someone would notice that. I'll change it back don't worry. Also price above 19.5 we need it back above 20k still. But it's a start. |
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"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.
"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."
I don’t think costs of wrecking all relevant markets are worth propping
up a Nazi regime
It's always worth sacrificing others, never themselves though or their families. What a shit head, I swear people dying and losing everrything turns these evil pricks on. Exactly who are you are sacrificing for? A country that exists only due to an administrative error, and is now held to ransom by a gang of Nazis Fuck you - spend you own money on them All I can say is that the Ukrainian, EU, US, and Russian people have been fucked over in a major way for the ideologies of their leaders. This whole thing could of easily been avoided but they wanted a war. They have their war now so they're happy, but not happy enough apparently, they want more people to suffer. People who just want to live their lives and get no benefit from the war what so ever. Anyway no one here likes needless war so I don't want to get diverted from the topic of BTC further. |
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"We must prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not let up in supporting Ukraine," the Nato chief said in an interview with German newspaper Bild.
"Even if the costs are high, not only for military support, also because of rising energy and food prices."
I don’t think costs of wrecking all relevant markets are worth propping
up a Nazi regime
It's always worth sacrificing others, never themselves though or their families. What a shit head, I swear people dying and losing everrything turns these evil pricks on. |
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[...]
I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio. Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough. Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks. That. Moreover, some of us actually want money with freedom. (Besides, anyone who holds stocks hedged with anything tied to “safe” U.S. Treasuries is in for a surprise whenever the petrodollar system finally implodes. Next decade? Next year? Tomorrow? Nobody knows, but the house of cards has only been built ever-higher for almost a half-century. Whenever that hits, whether it hits you or your children, it will make that “diverse portfolio” look like diversifying your BTC to be balanced with some SHIB, some ICOs, some Bored Ape NFTs, etc.) Spot on, which is what BTC is all about and while I'll always own some (gold too) it's insurance. Just happens that sometimes this insurance makes you a lot of money. Once the liquidations cease and all the rotten flesh is cut out of the system the healing will start... Bitcoin is a better option than a savings account  Very true, and If people treated it as savings rather than a get rich quick scheme we wouldn't be in this mess. |
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The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.
+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place. |
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I have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July. Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away. I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome. I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help. You are not wrong, however... See the big picture here. The SEC approval paves the way for businesses to officially enter the Bitcoin realm. Many of the biggest companies want to invest in Bitcoin and that means billions of $$$ having access to Bitcoin. That's providing the biggest companies still want to invest after what has just happened and also if they are willing to invest during a recession. |
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I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well. Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought. Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come. Yep my major concern. However it's possible, this doesn't come to pass. Firstly depends on Otter being correct and secondly it's possible some kind of rescue package or buyout or something can be done for some of these companies. I wouldn't bet on that of course, but there is some hope, no matter how slim. |
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I have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July. Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away. I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome. I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help. |
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It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things.
Thanks it has worked for me. I think it also helps to look at history. Historically alternatives to the official government approved money have done poorly in times of severe economic distress as debts are denominated in government money and they must be serviced. Silver for example declined by over 60% in the great depression. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352389-silver-prices-during-great-depressionSilver bounced back rapidly after it crashed climbed until the mid 30s when the president made illegal to own silver bullion and via executive command with executive Order 6814. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6814History rhymes so I expect bitcoin to do very poorly at least initially in a depression which we may be entering into very soon. Bitcoin is also volatile by nature as it is new and its declines will be compounded buy greed and leverage and the many scams in the altcoin space that will fall apart in a prolonged decline. Longer term I would not be at all surprised if many years down the road when fiat truly fails and some centralized gov coin version 2 or 3 is rolled out as a reset there will be some similar executive order outlawing private possession of BTC so it can be transferred to the government to be exchanged for gov coins. If I needed fiat in the next year I would sell BTC now even though it is a terrible price. However, long term I think BTC has a very promising if rocky road ahead. I don't need fiat and hope to buy more BTC so bring on the clearance prices. Interesting indeed. I did not know about silver during the depression. I agree with you on everything of course, definitely a great opportunity for those who can invest for the long term. |
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Please tell me we are not about to dump again. Let us have some rest.
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
I hope you are right. I have not sold any BTC during this run up or decline but I did sell a bunch a long time ago at 4k to start a small business. Business worked out fine and creates a nice independent income stream for me but I sure wish I started it with debt and not BTC. I would love for a long multi year period with BTC at 10k so I could slowly buy back the BTC I sold. I don't invest in altcoins but Bitcoin was about 85% of my net worth at its 65k peak. That percentage is obviously a lot less now of course but other then the my horrible sale timing at 4k years ago I have pretty much ignored this recent market action. I guess it depends on ones timeline and confidence. I am confident in bitcoins long term prospects. The short term market changes are thus only distracting noise. One thing that helps me keep a clear head is to assign a purpose to the BTC I own instead of looking at it as a total sum. The BTC I have right now is all earmarked for stuff either as future gifts for my children (I have a few kids), for my wife as a life insurance in case something happens to me (saves money on life insurance), or earmarked for grandchildren who don't exist yet using a guestimate on how many of them may eventually exist someday. I actually don't have any earmarked for my savings or retirement yet. Sold those back at 4k for the business. I need to eventually fix that and buy some BTC for me. I was not planning on doing that this year as was going to expand the business but if BTC drops to 10k I will put the expansion plans on hold and start buying BTC. I would guess that we are going lower from here. However, if we do the storm shall eventually pass. The draining of fiat liquidity by the central banks cannot be sustained forever. It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things. |
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Kind of wish chartbuddy would piss off for a while |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.
Plenty. *shrug* So what. Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier. The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media. The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners. Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned. And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin. For them, there is no “again”. Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future? By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness. The strong man knows his strength. I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence. Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic. ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody. The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength. In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin. Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”. Hmmm. somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs. I thank you for that. I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts. Your personal text is so awesome. An inspiration. Now, I need to ask you: Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.” Or now, maybe worse—eh. I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it. Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better. Think of a brighter future. Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn. As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account. So, this crash is worse. Whatever. 1 BTC = 1 BTC. (Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier... The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money. I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)
I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here.  But we are. By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins. When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”. It should never have happened. But it is the reality. Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC. By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse. So, anyway, here we are. Where to go from here? I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio. Don't be too hard on them for doing that. For many this is the only way they can ever hope to own a home, their labor is no longer enough. Thank you governments and CBs for putting people in this situation. You fucks. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.
Plenty. *shrug* So what. Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier. The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media. The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners. Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned. And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin. For them, there is no “again”. Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future? By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness. The strong man knows his strength. I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence. Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic. ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody. The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength. In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin. Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”. Hmmm. somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs. I thank you for that. I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts. Your personal text is so awesome. An inspiration. Now, I need to ask you: Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.” Or now, maybe worse—eh. I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it. Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better. Think of a brighter future. Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn. As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account. So, this crash is worse. Whatever. 1 BTC = 1 BTC. (Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier... The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money. I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)
I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here. But we are. By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins. When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”. It should never have happened. But it is the reality. Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC. By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse. So, anyway, here we are. Where to go from here? I do believe, that’s why I’ve never sold. I guess I just don’t want people to lose from this or avoid it in the future. The assholes (Bitfinex long guy) driving the price down right now win a little when that happens. I’ll refocus with time. Always do, this doesn’t mess with my personal life that much either so I’m not in a bad place, really. Anyway, I’m really glad that weight has been lifted from your mind. What I’m feeling is nothing compared to what you’ve gone through. I guess we’ll all be stronger after this is over. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far. At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies. To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended. Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did. Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium. It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now. I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500. I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery. some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms. In inflation adjusted terms maybe. But I don't think it will drop 70%, because by the time that happens we would be experiencing double digit deflation. The Fed would have pivoted by then. |
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I'm positive this is some kind of attack on the price while it is weak. The huge amount of longs on bitfinex surely has something to do with it too. My suspician is that they are hedging their trades to avoid having to sell on the spot market which would drive the price up. These aholes want blood I reckon. Weekend has low liquidity which is why they did it now. Same for last weekend. https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSDLONGS/EDIT: I think a serious bounce will happen as those longs clear. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far. At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies. To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended. Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did. Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium. It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now. I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500. I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery. |
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I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.
If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.
My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.
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Time to drink.
Going to need a few extra bottles, that bounce was not a bounce  |
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