Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

Good night guys and bots.

nice move towards improvements in inclusivity, for sure.  

How do we feel about this then?

BlockFi just gathered up $50 million to lend to bitcoin and ethereum holders who don’t want to cash out (yet)

Currently, BlockFi allows investors to take out a loan as high as $10 million using either bitcoin or ethereum as collateral.

Just like lending on Bitfinex, it's all about how much risk you want to take that the platform itself doesn't go under.

You can make somewhere around 1% or so per year on your BTC lending to shorts. But if Bitfinex goes the way of many of the exchanges, then you lose all of your money.

I was listening to an episode of "What Bitcoin Did" while out running the other day and noted that BlockFi is one of its sponsors (they offer fiat loans to borrowers with btc as collateral and also interest-bearing bitcoin accounts). I thought there had been some discussion on these hallowed pages about BlockFi in the past, or perhaps it was something similar, but a quick search came up with only the above discussion.  Which led me to have a few questions...

1. keeping in mind the obvious mantra of 'not your keys, not your coins' and considering the risk of such DeFi groups going under, I was wondering what WOers think of putting a small percentage of your coins into such an interest bearing account?

2. does Elwar think BlockFi or similar entities are now more reliable now that three years have passed?

3. wtf happened to Rosewater Foundation?

I'm far from convinced but it would be nice to get my coins working for me (in terms of increasing their number) instead of just sitting there looking good (and increasing in fiat terms but not in number). But the thought of not having my coins' keys sends me into a cold sweat....

Don't worry about it Strawbs.

Bitcoin is designed to pump forever, so you do not need to get lured into interest bearing nonsense.;.. and the vast majority of them both pay crap and they could well end up tricking you out of your coins because you failed to understand the terms of whatever bullshit contract to which you agreed.


Sure, if you just put a very small amount of your coins into such an instrument for funzies and to learn more, then probably no problem with that, but don't fool yourself into the desperate talking point that you need your bitcoin to earn interest because their appreciation is already built in...

Fuck they have appreciated way more than the 6% per year that I anticipated in 2013..  I should not have to go back and calculate, but I will if you believe that more discussion is needed... because it seems to me that you are actually seriously considering such nonsense and hopefully you are neither that desperate or you cannot figure out ways to engage in your own ongoing BTC accumulation if you feel you need more BTC beyond the overall ongoing BTC price appreciation that has historically occurred and likely to continue to happen to sufficient levels in order to be able to count on at least 12% per year (if not more) especially if you zoom out.. and none of those services are going to pay you 12% per year..

so they can fuck off.. except if you just are playing with them for funzies and you are o.k. with losing those coins.  Note that personally, I am surely not against participating in various aspects of the Bitcoin ecosystem which is part of my rationale for participating in several exchanges for the 7.5 years that I have in bitcoin.. and I have close to 10% of my stash on various exchanges and playing around with various third parties.. but consider the risks of losing those coins too.. and my coins in cold storage are way more than I need for my richie status anyhow  (referring to the near 0.21BTC stash that I may be getting close to having)..

....
3. wtf happened to Rosewater Foundation?
.....

Always wondered that myself actually. I miss the mayor's colorful posts.
All my favorite wo bros seem to have gone bye bye.
Time marches on.
Damn I'm getting old.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ciq0wlhwUVw

The puggie nerdy looking singer in that video kind of looks like what I would have imagined RF/Mayor to look like, for whatever that's worth?

In light of current happenings, I’m glad I wasn’t tempted by BlockFi’s promises a while ago. Well, I may have been a little tempted but thankfully didn’t go ahead. Shout out to JJG for throwing out some common sense at the time.

[death_wish]

Time to drink.

Going to need a few extra bottles, that bounce was not a bounce  

Dead cat...

Remember when a few days ago, you corrected my wild Hopium over a bounce around $22k–$23k?  The margin account and the desperation with debt had me not seeing very clearly.

Here’s to planning how to recover from this mess.

* death_wish pours Cognac, toasts somac. and Richy_T.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

"they" might be going for 13600$

It seems if we reach down there, Celsius' holdings get liquidated and 24k BTC get thrown on the market.

If that happens we might just get the Vegeta memes ready again..

https://www.reddit.com/r/CelsiusNetwork/comments/vdxnq2/celsius_liquidation_price_is_now_13601/
disclaimer:
just stuff that I found... verify yourself pls

Seems right to me, either that or they are actually trying to destroy bitcoin here.

I wonder if my partner buysolar read that and told me he thought 13k was bottom.

Yes I'm panicking. Not going to mindrust though.

Thanks for the candour, but please don’t panic.  Bitcoin needs people who are both idealistic, and shrewd about the gritty realities of the world.  It is a rare combination.

Our problem now is that the economic warfare is a means of propaganda warfare—which in turn supports economic warfare, as a feedback loop.

Everything needs a narrative nowadays.  The U.S. Dollar is a house of cards built of interlocking narratives.  People’s trust in banks is objectively stupid—but it is founded on a narrative.

Economically, the Bitcoin narrative is dead.  It is already.^*  That does not mean that Bitcoin is dead (LOL), but only that savvier Bitcoiners need to get out in front of foreseeable developments—lest they be perceived as deluding themselves with a Reality Distortion Field.

Some parts of the Bitcoin economic narrative are best discarded.  (I never believed in PlanB; and I always took four-year cycle theories with a grain of salt, beyond the obvious supply-side effect of the Halvings.)  Others are sound in the abstract, but need concrete discussions adjusted to fit reality.  For only one example, Bitcoin as a store of wealth is fundamentally sound—if and only if Bitcoin is treated as money, and we burn to the ground every foolish notion that treats Bitcoin as “like a stock”.  I have been saying for years that we need to get decoupled from stocks, and coupled to PMs ASAP.  (“I told you so.”)  That is largely a matter of narratives, and of making the narratives fit reality rather than living in fantasyland:  Bitcoin’s nature is not to be a stock.  Treating a fundamentally non-stock-like thing as “like a stock” must bring disastrous results, both for individual investors and for the whole Bitcoin market!

People obviously are not generally using Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.  Because they see dollars as “money”, and Bitcoin as a stock-like thing that you trade for money.  Anyone who wants to brand me overly theoretical or idealistic:  I am the realistic one!  Your ideas have been demolished by reality.^*

If we apply a sort of Gresham’s Law to narratives about Bitcoin, I am confident that Bitcoin will recover on a firmer, more solid foundation so that it can rise to the heavens as it should.  Accordingly, this is only a setback.  I still look forward to my million-dollar bitcoins.

^*  “No one who has held for at least 4 years has ever been at loss.”  200 WMA as a reliable bottom (I never believed in the PlanB-style voodoo, but I recognized it as a Schelling point).  Never falling below the previous cycle top.  As I write this, we are nominally >3% below previous cycle top and >17% below 200 WMA—and falling again, after what looks to me like a dead-cat bounce.  In real value terms, the dollar’s inflation has so horribly distorted the Bitcoin market that I think we have dipped as low as half the December 2017 top in December 2017 dollars—maybe lower.  These are already accomplished facts.  Nothing could worse kill a recovery than retreating into a Reality Distortion Field.

[sirazimuth]

The next 24 hours are critical..
.....



No, not for bitcoin. idgaf about that.
For me ...I'm going to the amusement park with my daughter and I hate roller coasters.
No worries though, she hates them too, but we can handle that log flume thing where you get soaked and buy the pic
they snap of you screaming and looking terrified.
So far, I got 2 of them of us from 2 different years.
Number 3 coming up.
That's priceless.

[HI-TEC99]

The next 24 hours are critical..
.....



No, not for bitcoin. idgaf about that.
For me ...I'm going to the amusement park with my daughter and I hate roller coasters.
No worries though, she hates them too, but we can handle that log flume thing where you get soaked and buy the pic
they snap of you screaming and looking terrified.
I got 2 of them so far of us from 2 different years.
Number 3 coming up.
That's priceless.

Don't drink anything fizzy, like cola or beer. I made that mistake and threw up once.

[death_wish]

I smell fear

That ETH sh!tcoin just went from a 2$ fee to 25$ < > 30$. ROFL!!                     .. ( poor USDT users. )

Who uses USDT on Ethereum?  Those with more money than sense, I guess.

I used USDT a few hours ago.  I paid a fee worth less than $0.0002 per transaction.  Pay $2 per transaction, LOLWUT?

Tether started in Bitcoinland, they now run on about a half-dozen blockchains—and IIUC, they should like to return to Bitcoinland if/when we have token implementations that would work for them.  (Maybe RGB/Spectrum.)

Ethereum is a horrible experience.  Always.  Everything that I have ever tried there has made me miserable.  The whole thing is just a scam to bilk people for gas.  I think its days are numbered.  I hope that it crashes and dies soon.

Just bought some Eth at $890  
Hope that's as low as it will go but more funds at the ready.

My Eth is stacking nicely. My btc position is already good  

Eh, whoops.

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

[HI-TEC99]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

[Biodom]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now.

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery.

[jojo69]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now.

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery.

some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms.

[somac.]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now.

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery.

some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms.

In inflation adjusted terms maybe. But I don't think it will drop 70%, because by the time that happens we would be experiencing double digit deflation. The Fed would have pivoted by then.

[Arriemoller]

You go for a ride and when you come back there's a gazillion new posts on the WO.

Well I for one have taken this oportunity to sell half my stash and bought bitcoin certificates instead, the low price makes the tax much lower.
There are four different certificates to choose from, so I have spread my buying equally on all four, just in case some goes belly up, you know, not your keyes...

I have them on my ISK account, that will give me a very low tax, like almost nothing, instead of the 30 percent on real bitcoin. and it's also a way to get my money in to the system while it's still possible without too many questions.

I have my ISK on Avanza if anyone elso from my region is interested.

ISK "investerinssparkonto" is a low tax investment account in Sweden It litterally means "investment savings account".
here's an example of one of the certificates. https://www.avanza.se/borshandlade-produkter/certifikat-torg/om-certifikatet.html/563966/bitcoin-xbt

[death_wish]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this.

Plenty.  *shrug*  So what.  Every crash drives away some people who were in earlier.  The ones who wind up posting wildly distorted sob stories titled “crypto ruined my life!!!!” on social media.  The next wave of bitter ex-coiner nocoiners.

Reasonable Bitcoiners won’t flip out like that—although the adjustment may be difficult, given the factors I have previously mentioned.

And most people have not yet touched Bitcoin.  For them, there is no “again”.  Why would or wouldn’t they touch Bitcoin in the future?

By analogy, it is a truism (and true) that women are generally attracted to strength—repulsed by weakness.  The strong man knows his strength.  I speak not of swaggering empty conceits, but rather of self-confidence.  Self-confidence is contagious—as are depressiveness, indecision, and panic.  ...Well, so as for women—so as for everybody.  The strong man who attracts women is also a leader of men; everybody responds to strength.

In my sojourns in altcoinland, I have oftentimes observed that altcoiners are either impressed by Bitcoin, or jealous of Bitcoin.  Bitcoin, as in “Bitcoin dominance”.  Hmmm.

somac., your sharp instincts and some of your gut predictions saved me from a fourth liquidation, and were one of the decisive factors for me to get out of debt now, at all costs.  I thank you for that.  I would be wrecked beyond wreckage by now, if I had not been paying extra attention to your posts.

Your personal text is so awesome.  An inspiration.

Now, I need to ask you:  Do you believe in your heart of hearts that you hodl something desirable?

If yes... who cares about all the people who gave in 2015, “Bitcoin is dead.”  Or now, maybe worse—eh.  I just want to think about how to get out ahead of whatever plans there perhaps may be to crack Bitcoin economically—perhaps as practical support for a new narrative equalizing it with POS shitcoins, then deprecating it.  Refocus on what makes Bitcoin better.  Think of a brighter future.

Meanwhile, if it bottoms at $17k or $15k or $OH DEAR HEAVENS I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, I’ll just be laughing and munching popcorn.  As I did in previous crashes—I got my diamond hands back, now that I have exorcised the mind-destroying, asset-destroying, soul-sickening influence of that damn margin account.  So, this crash is worse.  Whatever.  1 BTC = 1 BTC.

(Further reply to you intended, but I am exhausted as hell after what I did earlier...  The last time that margin account will ever drain my personal energy together with my money.  I may come off as unintentionally brusque; please do not misinterpret this post as being flip towards you.)

I am in utter disbelief we just shouldn't be here.  

But we are.

By analogy, on a personal level, I am in utter disbelief that I lost most of my bitcoins.  When I look at my wallet, I know that I “just shouldn’t be here”.  It should never have happened.  But it is the reality.  Living in shock, numbness, and denial after I was liquidated down to 0.5 BTC was really what got me crushed down to 0.05 BTC.  By failing to acknowledge the reality and react constructively, by default I took the path from bad to worse.

So, anyway, here we are.  Where to go from here?

[Arriemoller]

Selling bitcoin cheap
Moving to certificates
Saving on taxes

[death_wish]

You go for a ride and when you come back there's a gazillion new posts on the WO.

Well I for one have taken this oportunity to sell half my stash and bought bitcoin certificates instead, the low price makes the tax much lower.
There are four different certificates to choose from, so I have spread my buying equally on all four, just in case some goes belly up, you know, not your keyes...

I have them on my ISK account, that will give me a very low tax, like almost nothing, instead of the 30 percent on real bitcoin. and it's also a way to get my money in to the system while it's still possible without too many questions.

I have my ISK on Avanza if anyone elso from my region is interested.

ISK "investerinssparkonto" is a low tax investment account in Sweden It litterally means "investment savings account".
here's an example of one of the certificates. https://www.avanza.se/borshandlade-produkter/certifikat-torg/om-certifikatet.html/563966/bitcoin-xbt

You know...

[philipma1957]

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

My only satisfaction would be that if these whales, after dropping the price so much, cause the exchange they are using to fail and they lose all their coins.

Yes, I don't see what's a big deal so far.
At least half of this decline is due to liquidations of some overextended hedge funds and weird companies.
To me it looks like hedgies went for an outsize returns and got overextended.
Many always point out that 'institutional' involvement cuts both ways...and it did.
Now we are just waiting for the equilibrium.

It's those longs on Bitfinex that makes me think something is up, the only reason for so many futures longs is so you can take profit without driving the spot market up. Maybe its just the liquidations, but how many coins do these pricks have. must of been a million dumped by now.

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

Don't you remember early 2015 when it crashed from $300 to $150 in about half a day? That was worse than this, and it didn't put people off. By about November 2015 it was back up to $500.

I wasn't monitoring the price as much back then, would only check couple times a week at most, so I only saw that after it had happened. Yes it was worse in percentages, but there were far less people involved back then, where as now a lot more normies got in. I don't know if it will scar as bad honestly, but it's something I'm thinking about in terms of when it comes to recovery vs say the stock market recovery.

some say that stock market "ought" to drop 70% as well, not sure if it will happen or not, it's certainly possible, especially in inflation-adjusted terms.

The chances of a %70 stock crash in the next 2 weeks are smaller then I can see.