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Question: How far will this leg take us?
$110K - 9 (8.3%)
$120K - 19 (17.6%)
$130K - 17 (15.7%)
$140K - 9 (8.3%)
$150K - 19 (17.6%)
$160K - 2 (1.9%)
$170K+ - 33 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 108

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26842440 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
death_wish
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Take profit in BTC. Account PnL in BTC. BTC=money.


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June 19, 2022, 06:18:14 AM



Asking for a friend who seems to have very limited time to come up with some dollars...



When you are old and infirm, may hard fate and ill circumstances bring those words back to haunt you.
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June 19, 2022, 06:18:55 AM

I mindrusted some scraps of precious altcoins

You must have either not gotten the memo or you failed/refused to open it..

In other words, it is definitionally impossible to mindrust a shitcoin..


It does not matter if you refer to such shitc0in as your lillie precious or not..

It no doesn't work


In other words.. sell shitcoins to your hearts content.. at any price and under any market condition, it does not count as a mindrust.

If you want to mindrust, you better try harder..

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

The good news:  For the first time in over five months, I am debt-free!  And the sad remainder of my BTC is freed from the margin account.  For the first time in over five months, I am at zero risk of liquidation.

Well I will congratulate you about that, so you can get your butt in gear and start (or resume) stacking sats.


Now, I can go back to my old self. Cheesy

I am not sure if "we" would want that, unless you are able to guarantee that it will objectively better than the most recent one that we have been witnessing..

Yes, I have very little BTC left.  But it is a large proportion of my dollhouse-sized remaining finances.  For he who has little, a pauper’s scraps are precious as a king’s fortune.  

Rome was not built in a day, and presumptively, there were set backs from time to time.

Let the market burn, as I frolic in the sunshine!

I think that we have already established that no coiners and low coiners have tendencies to be assholes in that kind of a way..

Therefore one of the likely strongest solutions from contributing towards mitigating your asshole tendencies is for you to get a meaningful and substantial stake in our lil precious.. so get out there dear trooper/soldier and get in the mode of stacking some sats.. stack a meaningful and substantial amount.. nothing whimpy like some other members... who will remain unnamed.. at least for the time being.   

I am gravely worried about Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.  

You will care more if you get some stake... or at least increase your stake.

This is an attack.  But that is an idealistic worry—cause for worse pessimism over the state of the world—

Don't fret or worry ur lil head about those kinds of matters.

Stay focused.

You might even need some lazer eyes... unless you had merely misplaced them from earlier.  Homer can help.. perhaps.. but only those who want to be helped.

hahahahaha


not a fear for my personal finances.  For my personal finances, my only Bitcoin-related concern—my grievous concern is that I do not have enough BTC.

That is be called koreck.

You do no have enough... so get to work stackening MOAR of them. 

Maintain aggressiveness and assertiveness without getting  overly greedy.. figure out something reasonable, prudent and that does not devolve into gambling.

You might need a mentor because if left to your own devices, you seem to have a predisposition to devolve away from reasonableness and prudence...

Any volunteers?

Anyone want to mentor one stubborn fuck, aka D_W?  And some other names too, but "we" just refer to him as internet dog/cat.

Look who the mouse drug in.

 Shocked Shocked Shocked

Ecce homo!

I think that the mouse that drug you in must have been lured towards you by those cute little mouse underwear ears that you have on the top of your hat.

You do not have lazer eyes to scare them away, just cute little mouse underwear ears.   Wink
Little Mouse
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June 19, 2022, 06:23:18 AM


 little mouse

&

little mouse
I got a notification through the telegram mention bot  Roll Eyes

Edit- There's a poll on "Where is the bottom?"
It's already below $18k and I'm more than happy as I have all the USDT saved from the sale I had in the bull. I'm praying for BTC to go below $10k lol though I think $10k will be the bottom as someone said in a block "Last time to buy below $10k (or $9k). I will dump all my crypto asset for BTC at that price though I'm buying ever since when BTC hit $21000 recently.
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June 19, 2022, 06:48:01 AM

Look on the bright side wobros...
at some point in time in distant future we can celebrate page parity again!  Perhaps...perhaps??

Bribe ChartBuddy or JJG to delete their posts?

I don't delete posts..

oh wait?

Did you say "bribe?"

hahahaha

Look on the bright side wobros...
at some point in time in distant future we can celebrate page parity again!  Perhaps...perhaps??

Bribe ChartBuddy or JJG to delete their posts?

I would, but I doubt they accept bitcoin anymore...

Hookers, lambos and blow are somewhat transportable.....and there has been a shortage in these here parts, recently.

#justmentioningit

I can be flexible, when I am not being stubborn.. like you know who. 



Are we into crypto in these here parts?

Asking for a friend.
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June 19, 2022, 07:01:44 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Excited…!!! Who else is coming?
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June 19, 2022, 07:03:26 AM


Explanation
JayJuanGee
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June 19, 2022, 07:23:26 AM

I mean some people are stupid enough to put the entirety of their retirement fund into crypto. Lesson #1 of investing is have a diverse portfolio.

What makes you so smart, PokestarFan?

What size portfolio are you presuming?

What other details are you presuming about the investor?

What do you mean by diversification?  What kinds of asset areas besides "crypto"? and really fuck crypto .. why did you bring up "crypto"  we are talking about bitcoin in this thread.. .when you use the term "crypto" are you talking about bitcoin or something else.. ?

Can you give a hypothetical of a portfolio and how it might be sufficiently diversified based on various individual factors?

Are you presuming an old investor or a young investor?  Does that make a difference from your ways of criticizing lack of diversification?

I wonder how many people will never touch BTC again after this. Is this going to be one of those things like the great depression where it is ingrained in the population living it at the time. How many people who sold out from the 2017 crash ended up buying again for this cycle? Would be interesting to know.

If their are whales doing this selling in an effort to accrue more coins or something stupid, there is a good chance that they may kill sentiment for a very long time. Even if the Fed goes bananas with the printing press again.

I hope you are right. I have not sold any BTC during this run up or decline but I did sell a bunch a long time ago at 4k to start a small business. Business worked out fine and creates a nice independent income stream for me but I sure wish I started it with debt and not BTC.

I would love for a long multi year period with BTC at 10k so I could slowly buy back the BTC I sold.

Why do you have a mental block that you need to buy back in at prices close to the prices that you sold?

Hardly makes sense when BTC is quite likely NOT to go back to those price levels ever again..

Sure there might be some crash that takes bitcoin further down from where we are at.. but we are already in rare territory with BTC prices below the 200-week moving average for 5 days already and also 20% below the 200-week moving average..

Sure there are no guarantees but expecting sub $10k and even  sustainable sub $10k seems to like pie in the sky;.

There are all kinds of ways to establish a reasonable stake in BTC.. without having to get into some kind of fantasy theories/expectations about entry price points that may well lock you out from ever buying.


I don't invest in altcoins but Bitcoin was about 85% of my net worth at its 65k peak. That percentage is obviously a lot less now of course but other then the my horrible sale timing at 4k years ago I have pretty much ignored this recent market action. I guess it depends on ones timeline and confidence. I am confident in bitcoins long term prospects. The short term market changes are thus only distracting noise.

I agree with the point that it is difficult to enter when there is a lot of uncertainty... but that might just justify how much to put in at various price points rather than not putting anything in and waiting to only employ lump sum investing..

In other words, dollar cost averaging ( DCA i)s the most powerful BTC accumulation strategy and it can be supplemented with buying on dips and lump sum investing.

One thing that helps me keep a clear head is to assign a purpose to the BTC I own instead of looking at it as a total sum. The BTC I have right now is all earmarked for stuff either as future gifts for my children (I have a few kids), for my wife as a life insurance in case something happens to me (saves money on life insurance), or earmarked for grandchildren who don't exist yet using a guestimate on how many of them may eventually exist someday.  

That causes long term holding motivations, then.

I actually don't have any earmarked for my savings or retirement yet. Sold those back at 4k for the business. I need to eventually fix that and buy some BTC for me. I was not planning on doing that this year as was going to expand the business but if BTC drops to 10k I will put the expansion plans on hold and start buying BTC.

Of course you can do both.. You can just set up a small amount each week, whether that is $10 or $100 or some other amount, and then otherwise just go about focusing on your business matters.

I would guess that we are going lower from here. However, if we do the storm shall eventually pass. The draining of fiat liquidity by the central banks cannot be sustained forever.

Sounds like you have a decent grasp on some of bitcoin's central investment rationales... it is just a matter of setting up some kind of tailored plan, and of course, you can be way less aggressive, and then just be ready to throw more at bitcoin if some more clear bottom signal is in.. but sometimes the bottom signal is not very clear, either.. so sometimes if you wait too long, then you are just buying at higher prices.. so damned if you do and damned if you don't to some degree which gets back to the justification that you have to figure out a balancing approach that is comfortable for yourself based on an assessment of all  of your personal circumstances which should include cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments....
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June 19, 2022, 07:39:19 AM

It's people like you that will support the price and create a bottom. Much respect for the way you have handled things.

Thanks it has worked for me.

I think it also helps to look at history. Historically alternatives to the official government approved money have done poorly in times of severe economic distress as debts are denominated in government money and they must be serviced. Silver for example declined by over 60% in the great depression.
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4352389-silver-prices-during-great-depression

Silver bounced back rapidly after it crashed climbed until the mid 30s when the president made illegal to own silver bullion and via executive command with executive Order 6814.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6814

History rhymes so I expect bitcoin to do very poorly at least initially in a depression which we may be entering into very soon. Bitcoin is also volatile by nature as it is new and its declines will be compounded buy greed and leverage and the many scams in the altcoin space that will fall apart in a prolonged decline.

Longer term I would not be at all surprised if many years down the road when fiat truly fails and some centralized gov coin version 2 or 3 is rolled out as a reset there will be some similar executive order outlawing private possession of BTC so it can be transferred to the government to be exchanged for gov coins.

If I needed fiat in the next year I would sell BTC now even though it is a terrible price. However, long term I think BTC has a very promising if rocky road ahead. I don't need fiat and hope to buy more BTC so bring on the clearance prices.

Interesting indeed. I did not know about silver during the depression. I agree with you on everything of course, definitely a great opportunity for those who can invest for the long term.
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June 19, 2022, 07:41:54 AM


 little mouse

&

little mouse
I got a notification through the telegram mention bot  Roll Eyes

Good thing that I did  not say "bloody mary" three times, we would have been totally screwed.

Edit- There's a poll on "Where is the bottom?"
It's already below $18k and I'm more than happy as I have all the USDT saved from the sale I had in the bull. I'm praying for BTC to go below $10k lol though I think $10k will be the bottom as someone said in a block "Last time to buy below $10k (or $9k). I will dump all my crypto asset for BTC at that price though I'm buying ever since when BTC hit $21000 recently.

Difficult to expect prices below $10k.. even though we know that extremes are possible, and the trend is your friend...

But are current local low of $17,593 is already 21% below the 200-week moving average (which is slightly above $22,300).. so how much more of a bottom is really realistic?  Another 20% to 40% dump at most?  That would put us somewhere between $10.5k (for 40% more) and $14k (for only 20% more).. and even getting to $14k seems a bit much of a stretch from my perspective.. but hey what do I know.. I would have never thought that the odds would have been very high at all that we would have gotten to where we are at, at least not in this cycle.
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June 19, 2022, 07:47:35 AM

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Smiley
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June 19, 2022, 07:48:25 AM

Excited…!!! Who else is coming?


Where's it being held, Jaywick Sands?

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June 19, 2022, 07:53:28 AM
Merited by ivomm (1)

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Smiley

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.
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June 19, 2022, 07:57:23 AM
Last edit: June 19, 2022, 08:15:07 AM by ivomm
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), dragonvslinux (1)

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought.  Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come.

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June 19, 2022, 08:03:12 AM



GAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH!!!!!!!

THE HUMANITY!!!!!!!!!!!
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June 19, 2022, 08:03:26 AM


Explanation
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June 19, 2022, 08:06:09 AM



Hi there, Chartbuddy!
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June 19, 2022, 08:07:49 AM

I was quite condident that we are near the bottom. But this morning I've read carefully the thread about blockfi https://twitter.com/otteroooo/status/1537497403246268416. If I had any illusions that all is good and BTCitcoin will recover soon, they all evaporated. I'm starting to think that the current price is miraculously high given the circumstances. It seems that all this mass adoption and institutions getting on board in the last years is just a bunch of giant ponzis falling apart before our eyes. This is too bad not only short-term but mid-term as well.

Just one sad detail which describes the current situation. Blockfi was hoping for GBTC to convert to ETF so they could withdraw thousands BTCitcoins and sell them without the 30% discount, i. e. at the real prices. In other words, we hoped for a spot ETF to attract new investors, but instead those 640K BTCictoins would be dumped immediately after the conversion! So, instead of bullish news this turns out to be a major bearish news. Now, for the first time I want SEC to keep denying those ETF's. And if one month of panic caused this crash to 17K, I can't imagine what will be the price after 6 months, when all these ponzis became insolvent and the investors get only 1-10% of their investment. This is a major blow to BTCitcoin, and I'm starting to think that the price may fall below 15K or, God forbid, below 10K. Anyway, I'm not selling, only buying all the way down. This is really heartbreaking, and the prospect of having more coins than before doesn't make me so happy as I thought.  Let's hope that the worst is behind us and the market will survive the liquidations to come.

Yep my major concern. However it's possible, this doesn't come to pass. Firstly depends on Otter being correct and secondly it's possible some kind of rescue package or buyout or something can be done for some of these companies. I wouldn't bet on that of course, but there is some hope, no matter how slim.
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June 19, 2022, 08:12:25 AM

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Smiley

Have hear them same theory….
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June 19, 2022, 08:36:42 AM

I  have a gut feeling this is going to stay low until 6th of July.
Then the SEC approves the Grayscale ETF. Institutional investors will buy in at a discount and everything goes up like a rocket... Smiley

Wish I could share that thought, but I suspect that there will be a lot of selling coming from that. Think about it the discount is currently 35% or something if it would become an etf the price woould immediately spike to parity then people would sell the shit out of it, as it would be a 35% increase straight away.

I could easily be wrong but that's how I see it. If you see the discount decrease a few days prior chances are that is insiders buy for that outcome.

I also hear though that there is no chance it will get up. I don't think this dump will help.

You are not wrong, however...

See the big picture here. The SEC approval paves the way for businesses to officially enter the Bitcoin realm.
Many of the biggest companies want to invest in Bitcoin and that means billions of $$$ having access to Bitcoin.
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June 19, 2022, 08:47:47 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


 little mouse

&

little mouse
I got a notification through the telegram mention bot  Roll Eyes

Roll Eyes Too bad your TG bot was too... robotic to pick this up, Little Mouse:

“To a Mouse”

Quote from: “To a Mouse”, by Robert Burns (1785)
But, Mousie, thou art no thy lane
In proving foresight may be vain:
The best laid schemes o' mice an’ men
Gang aft agley,
An’ lea’e us nought but grief an’ pain
For promis’d joy.




I mindrusted some scraps of precious altcoins

[...]
In other words, it is definitionally impossible to mindrust a shitcoin..
[...]

If you want to mindrust, you better try harder..

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Thanks.  It’s good to laugh. Cheesy

The good news:  For the first time in over five months, I am debt-free!  And the sad remainder of my BTC is freed from the margin account.  For the first time in over five months, I am at zero risk of liquidation.

Well I will congratulate you about that, so you can get your butt in gear and start (or resume) stacking sats.

Best for me would be to spend less time on the forum, unless it is for moneymaking purposes.

If I had devoted every moment and ounce of effort that I have ever spent on this forum to making money, I would now be a whale.  That was a foolish investment choice for allocation of my most precious resource:  My limited lifetime.

Now, I can go back to my old self. Cheesy

I am not sure if "we" would want that, unless you are able to guarantee that it will objectively better than the most recent one that we have been witnessing..

I did fine, until I did something that I had previously warned others not to do.

Yes, I have very little BTC left.  But it is a large proportion of my dollhouse-sized remaining finances.  For he who has little, a pauper’s scraps are precious as a king’s fortune.  

Rome was not built in a day, and presumptively, there were set backs from time to time.

Good thinking.

Let the market burn, as I frolic in the sunshine!

I think that we have already established that no coiners and low coiners have tendencies to be assholes in that kind of a way..

In March of 2020, I had much more BTC than I have now.  I had the same attitude.  (Insert list of previous crashes.)

But I am ideologically motivated to be in Bitcoin.  It is my primary, dominant motive—even if it conflicts with my financial interests.  That gives me a perspective different than most.

Therefore one of the likely strongest solutions from contributing towards mitigating your asshole tendencies is for you to get a meaningful and substantial stake in our lil precious..

I am not subject to your judgment or anyone else’s of whether or not I have sufficient BTC.  “...a meaningful and substantial stake...”  What is this, POS?

The “no skin in the game” argument applies to those who have significant wealth in fiat, stocks, etc.  Yes, someone who has a big portfolio but only 0.05 BTC can pretty much just fork off!

But you would call me “overinvested” in BTC.  Before you pretend to pass judgment on me or analyze my “tendencies”, please dump your stocks (I don’t have any), cut your central bank shitcoin holdings to the bare minimum needed for short-term living expenses (I live simply, and I have almost no money in the bank—though when I am in wealth-building mode, I like to gather up some Tethers, etc. when that’s advantageous for cashing out to BTC at opportune moments), and figure your personal net worth in BTC as a unit of account.

Even with less than 0.05 BTC, I am drastically “overinvested” in BTC as % of all the money and investment assets that I have.

I do have an incentive now to hope for BTC to stay low for awhile, so that I can obtain more of it—preferably, at least as much as I recently had.  That is no different in principle than WOers who are hoping for BTC to stay low until their next paychecks (or whatever), so they can DCA down.  It is quite different from nocoiners/ex-coiners who hope for BTC to fail.  And I have always enjoyed bear markets, even when I had much more BTC than now.  Divide the wheat from the chaff, give LTH the opportunity to accumulate more while there is blood in the streets.  My personal “greed and fear” index is wired to the opposite of most people’s.

so get out there dear trooper/soldier and get in the mode of stacking some sats.. stack a meaningful and substantial amount.. nothing whimpy like some other members... who will remain unnamed.. at least for the time being.    

That, in itself, is a damn fine idea.  For reasons quite other than “asshole tendencies”.

I have a sort of life focus on Bitcoin.  I want to have me some more of those bitcoins, instead of just watching others have more of them while I pray for Bitcoin to overthrow the corruption of the banking system.  Monetary ideology is unusual this way:  It is a type of idealism that is directly undermined by having too little greed.

In most ideologies, one can be quite credible (perhaps even more credible) being poor as a monk.  Not in Bitcoin.  For better or for worse.

I am gravely worried about Bitcoin, because I care about Bitcoin.  

You will care more if you get some stake... or at least increase your stake.

No.  It would apply for most people; you don’t know me.  Nonetheless, I absolutely should stack up some bitcoins.  For my own self-interest, not to meet your criteria or anyone else’s for “stake”.  Again, what is this POS type of talk?

A very large proportion of my investment/savings assets are in Bitcoin (and I am now awaiting favourable market conditions to liquidate some other things to Bitcoin—it would be shooting myself in the foot right now).  That puts my money where my mouth is.  I simply don’t have much money.

I damn should make myself some bitcoins, for my own sake and no one else’s.  Preferably, I should like to be rich—especially after all this!

This is an attack.  But that is an idealistic worry—cause for worse pessimism over the state of the world—

Don't fret or worry ur lil head about those kinds of matters.

Stay focused.

You might even need some lazer eyes... unless you had merely misplaced them from earlier.  Homer can help.. perhaps.. but only those who want to be helped.

hahahahaha

If I didn’t think of these kinds of matters, I would not have any BTC at all!  “Those kinds of matters” were the motive that first brought me to Bitcoin, and these matters will always keep me holding BTC no matter what.  I did NOT buy in to see “number go up”.  I learned about that after I already had BTC.  Once upon a time, I somehow managed to spent years on this forum blissfully avoiding Speculation, before I even learned that the Wall Observer existed (sorry, you are not as famous as you think).  I still have the same essential attitude, and I always will.

I don’t need laser eyes graphics or other memes, for my own personal use.

You might need a mentor because if left to your own devices, you seem to have a predisposition to devolve away from reasonableness and prudence...

Any volunteers?

Anyone want to mentor one stubborn fuck, aka D_W?  And some other names too, but "we" just refer to him as internet dog/cat.

Thanks, but I was doing just fine until I did something that I had previously warned others against.  Although I do highly respect the intelligence and the market instincts of some of the die-hard regulars here, I do not need a WO mentor.

I will do much better now, if/when I fork off and ignore WO so I can get some work done.  The market has been a perpetual distraction to me, since I have been forced to pay attention to my liquidation risk.  Now that I can ignore the distraction of short-term BTC price movements, I have good prospects to make money.
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