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1641  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoin inflation now is 44% per year on: June 27, 2011, 08:33:07 PM
The main division in macroeconomics today is between Keynesian "saltwater schools" and Rational Expectations "freshwater schools". While the two schools disagree on substantive issues, they share definitions of common terms, like inflation. Sure there are crackpots who lie outside of these two schools (e.g. Marxists, Austrian Economists, etc.), but definitions written down by these guys don't influence common usage.

Now that this thread has made these distinctions clear, I will take my posts elsewhere.  Grin

The way to create a community is not to insult people.

Also, I dont know how you can call crackpots to the people that predicted the housing bubble, while a majority of keynesians did not see it coming, including Krugman. Krugman specifically called for the creation of the housing bubble. So if someone has to be called a crackpot here are the keynesians.

The real problem with keynesianism is that its not scientific, but that is another discussion.
1642  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: How To Get Difficulty Down? on: June 27, 2011, 07:31:57 PM
A virus that disables the fans on 58XX cards would probably work nicely.

If this ends up happneing Im going to blame you.
1643  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: "How I Bought Lunch in Manhattan with Bitcoins" on: June 27, 2011, 07:27:49 PM
I read the whole article. It starts very good, but it ends badly. You dont need a central bank to have reversible transactions. In fact, Bitcoin has implemented a system to have reversible transactions.
1644  Economy / Economics / World Bank Taps Lehman’s Ex Risk Officer As Treasurer on: June 27, 2011, 07:08:07 PM
The joke of the day.

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2011/06/world-bank-taps-lehmans-ex-risk-officer.html

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World Bank Taps Lehman’s Ex Risk Officer As Treasurer

My head is spinning.

Madelyn Antoncic served as chief risk officer at Lehman Brothers just before it collapsed. Before that between 2002 and 2007 she was head of Global Head of Market Risk Management at Lehman.
As Halah Touryalai, at Forbes puts it, you would think that Antoncic"would be hard pressed to score any financial job ever again." But no so fast.

The World Bank just hired Antoncic to run its finances as its treasurer and vice president.

She’ll be responsible, according to the World Bank, for its Capital Markets Department; Investment Management Department; Pension & Endowments; Quantitative Risk Analytics; Treasury Operations Department; Banking & Debt Management, and Sovereign Investment Partnerships.

..............
1645  Economy / Economics / Re: Five economic lessons from Sweden, the rock star of the recovery on: June 27, 2011, 06:59:12 PM
I recomend to some of the poster here to stop insulting to other members of the community.

Regarding the article is a bunch of non-sequiturs. I would appreciate if the op would bring a serious economic analisys and not the economic political propaganda.
1646  Economy / Economics / Re: The secret of oz [documentary] on: June 27, 2011, 03:48:45 PM
Inflationary policy would be more bearable to the poor if they had inflationary wages. The rub is that people in positions of power are able to ensure their incomes are indexed to inflation when people much lower on the ladder cannot. This ever widens the gap.

Indeed. The people with better job position get higher wage increases every year, probably equivalent to the real rate of price inflation, while the rest get their wages actualized by the offical government price inflation rate.

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Hugolp,
When you say that the government doesn't pay interest on debt I don't follow you. I was under the impression that the government continually issued debt to many holders including foreign institutions. I don't think they get away with not paying the interest on those bonds. I understood that to be the largest portion of government debt and transactions between the fed and government not as significant.

I never said that they dont pay interest in the bonds that they sell to the general population. The government does not pay interest (or more accurately gets the interest payment back) from the debt monetized by the central bank.
1647  Economy / Economics / Re: Fractional-reserve banking in Bitcoins - nothing prevents it! on: June 27, 2011, 03:45:53 PM
Well, yes. I think banks could hold some Bitcoins in reserve and loan out a portion and perhaps some insurance arrangement could protect them from a run on the funds. They would likely only be able to loan out maybe 50% or so.

But banks are quite used to loaning out a lot more than they ever got on deposit and I don't think they'd be interested in the paltry returns they'd suddenly be faced with being limited to just what they had on deposit. With a reserve ratio of 3% they're used to loaning out 30 times more than they hold on deposit.

Yes. Its very important to understand that fractional reserve with a central bank (or similar regulation) and fractional reserve without a central bank (free banking) are completely different monetary systems. People tend to talk about fractional reserve in general without taking into consideration if there is a central bank or not, and that leads to a lot fo confusion.
1648  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Gold 'n BTC on: June 27, 2011, 03:23:16 PM
I'd rather move my wealth in a easily-concealed flash drive, than try to cross borders with a heavy clinking suitcase. Digital wealth makes a lot more sense when you have to GTFO.

On the other hand, I do like shiny things...

Shiny bitcoins!!

1649  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Recommend a political book on: June 27, 2011, 02:52:21 PM
"History of Money and Banking from the Colonial Era to the IIWW" by Murray Rothbard

Perfect to understand how different monetary systems work in reality. Also in pdf.

But... But.... I was going to read Spider & Starfish again today, and out of nowhere you throw a rothbard book on the history of banking at me in an instantly available .pdf?   Not fair.

Wink

Life can be tought...

After reading that book, I recomend to read something from the free banking school (something from Lawrence Whilte or George Selgin, I personally prefer the style of the later), because IMHO its an advance on monetary theory from Rothard. Free banking is in my opinion the most important advance in austrian theory of the present day austrian schoolars.
1650  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Alpaca Socks on MetaCo.in! on: June 27, 2011, 02:37:03 PM
Okay, I put up the international shipping info on the deal.  Grass Hill Alpacas said they can't guarantee international shipping prices, because it will depend on when you redeem your voucher, but as of today, shipping to Canada will cost an additional 0.30 bitcoins, China/Australia is 0.45, and Austria/Germany/Switzerland is 0.40.

Im guessing that the rest of Europe will be similar. Btw, can I buy two pairs with the offer?
1651  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Are people buying more hardwares? on: June 27, 2011, 02:08:15 PM
They are buying hardwares and selling internets on the tubes.

How much for your internets?
1652  Economy / Economics / Re: How is the current banking system working? on: June 27, 2011, 02:04:48 PM
I'm from Europe but it seems that things similar to ACH exist in Europe too.

Let me guess: You are french.
1653  Economy / Economics / Re: How is the current banking system working? on: June 27, 2011, 01:34:21 PM
I'm trying to get more information about how the current banking system is working.

The cash cycle is somewhat easy to figure out. Merchants bring huge quantities of cash to their bank so their are credited on their account. Banks put that cash in their ATM so when you retrieve money, it is charged on your account.

The only remaining question is what if a bank has too much cash and the other not enough. Is there a market for cash? Or is everything regulated by the central bank?

Yes, its the federal funds market, and its rates are heavily influenced by the central bank. Only the banks of the Federal Reserve system and certain institutions (like Freddie and Fannie) can access this market.

Right now Bernanke has the federal fund rate at almost zero (between 0 and 0.25%). You can check their daily value here: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm Short term the central bank uses repos to correct slight deviations of this rates, but if that is not enough it has to raise the rate or do open market operations to inject more money. Right now we are in a special situation because the banks are loaded with money (check the excess reserves) and they have no need for borrowing from the federal fund market for their operations. Right now most of the action comes from the other institutions that lend the banks the money they have around without use overnight to earn some (minimal) interest. Why do the banks borrow this money? Because they can deposit it as excess reserves and earn a 0.25% that the Federal Reserve pays them. So while this situation goes on, the federal fund rate wont go over the excess reserve interest rate that the Fed is paying the banks. Note that this is a way for the Fed to give "free money" to the banks.



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But now about the bank themselves. The money on your account is only a virtual value in some computer. When you pay someone from the same bank, nothing really happens except an addition and a soustraction in an internal database. In theory, if 10 people have an account with 1000€ in a bank, this bank has 10,000€ (we will ignore loans and debts for now).

Now, what does happen when you send money to an account which is not in the same bank?

Different countries work in different ways, but usually the banks settle their balances once a day.

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It looks like an ACH is used. From what I understand, an ACH is mainly a bank for bank. So each bank should have an account to an ACH.

Is that right?

Who is controlling the ACH?

How can a transfer between two ACH happens?

How could it be controlled that the bank have well the money they pretend to have?

I'm a complete n00b in that field and I'm really interested to know the answers.

Sorry, Im not from the USA and I can not give you specifics on how exactly the banking clearing system of the USA works, but there is the wikipedia page that might help you get started: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Clearing_House (according to the wikipedia is regulated, which is not a surprise at all).

Btw, there were free market clearing houses that restrained member banks from expanding the money supply. See the Suffolk bank in the USA druing the XIX century.
1654  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Alpaca Socks on MetaCo.in! on: June 27, 2011, 12:37:26 PM
These are selling fast.  This may be our first deal to end early because of the cap.  We only have 7 of 19 deals left.  And people think no one buys anything in bitcoins.

What about international delivery?

Can I suggest that you include information about international delivery in your offerts? It would make things easier for a lot of people.
1655  Economy / Economics / Re: Fractional-reserve banking in Bitcoins - nothing prevents it! on: June 27, 2011, 12:32:20 PM
In the present moment there already is price inflation. The thing is that the credit crunch has produced a contraction of the debt producing deflationary preasures that have countered the inflationary preasures. But the credit is leveling so the deflationary preasures are fading, and the price inflation is starting to signal what is about to come. Monetary events are very slow. They can take years to develop.
I agree with you. But my confidence that this is so is not particularly high.

The only way for price inflation not to happen is for Bernanke to remove the liquidity from the banks. And the Fed is signaling already QE3 (which will be different form QE1 and QE2, it will be similar to the Operation Twist from the 60's and probably wont be called QE3 but its still money printing to buy government debt). The Fed really can not remove the liquidity from the banks, the only thing it can do is to control the rate at which that liquidity enters the market. That is why I have been predicting stagflation but not hyper-inflation.
1656  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Don't talk about Bitcoins! (Bitcoin Establishment Plan) on: June 27, 2011, 12:28:35 PM
In order to be able to buy and sell things with a currency it has to have a high trading volume. Otherwise, the first merchant to cash out will drop the price to near zero and then the rest will panic. Buying BitCoins to hold helps increase the trading volume and it helps hold the value up against cash outs.

I don't think it makes sense to try to change your behavior to make the currency work. Use the currency in the way that makes the most sense to you so that it's the most useful to you.

We need some channels were people dont need to get out of the Bitcoin economy. That is why I think its so important to get food business to accept bitcoins. If I earn bitcoins and can use them to buy food, there really is no need to change them back to a government currency. And as the business that accept bitcoins grow the food business can use them to buy computers, etc... Once we create some "circular flow" there will be no need to use the government currency.
1657  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins interest rates possible? on: June 27, 2011, 12:25:01 PM
Yes, but even after a court decision a million policemen are not able to wrench the money from your hands.

The problem is that then you probably can not trade in that jurisdiction anymore. Obviously its not unheard for some people to not pay the debts. In Europe a lot of people, specially inmigrants, have fleed the country leaving the unpayed mortgage behind. But they can not expect to come bank ever. Some people might preffer to pay the debt than to go away from their home, family and friends.
1658  Economy / Economics / Re: Fractional-reserve banking in Bitcoins - nothing prevents it! on: June 27, 2011, 12:14:53 PM
Yup, however it just makes the more system unstable if a crisis occurs. If there is ever a very large bank run then FDIC will go insolvent and the fed will have to back up the deposits. If that were to happen there would be massive increase in money supply. By the time you got your money it would be worth nothing.

The insurance is only good until you go to collect it.

Yes, I agree.

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That's what everyone thought. But then we borrowed money to finance two wars, had a global economic collapse, and borrowed money to "simulate" the economy and ... no inflation. Our understanding of those mechanics is wrong somewhere. (Not to say that really bad things won't happen. Of course they will. But a lot of them will be deflationary.)

What? There was massive inflation due to the monetary expansion of the Fed to pay for IWW. Scratch that, I read the two wars and though you were talking about IWW and IIWW.

In the present moment there already is price inflation. The thing is that the credit crunch has produced a contraction of the debt producing deflationary preasures that have countered the inflationary preasures. But the credit is leveling so the deflationary preasures are fading, and the price inflation is starting to signal what is about to come. Monetary events are very slow. They can take years to develop.

Some people still trust that Bernanke will be able to remove all the liquidity from the banks "when the time comes". But I have written articles (not en english, sorry) showing how Bernanke can not remove the liquidity, just delay when it appears in the market (basically through playing with the interest it pays on excess reserves).
1659  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Bitcoins interest rates possible? on: June 27, 2011, 12:07:40 PM
Funkypala, welcome again.

I thought about that, too. My conclusion: A bank who gives loans to people is impossible, because it cannot enforce that people pay back their debts.

Even if you know the identity, what are you gonna do? Torture him to release his passwords?

There are ways to enforce contracts through private institutions. First, you have ostracism. If someone violates a contract he/she will find it hard that other people trust him/her and trade with him/her. So there is an incentive to respect contracts. Second, you have the legal system, the courts. This legal system can be a government monpolly or private. It would be a long to discuss both systems, but basically the bank can use the legal system to enforce the contract.
1660  Economy / Economics / Re: Fractional-reserve banking in Bitcoins - nothing prevents it! on: June 27, 2011, 12:00:38 PM
There is a huge incentive to not have fractional reserve banking and here it is:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qu2uJWSZkck

This is a incentive to not have very extreme fractional reserve banking. And that is what happened when banking was not regulated. Because banks were afraid of bank runs they kept a higher ratio, the were more prudent. Now, with regulations, they are protected from bank runs (specially because of central banking and FDIC) so they can go as low as the regulators allow them, which for example in Europe is 2% and in the USA a bit higher. The government regulations have taken the control away from the costumers. Bernanke at some point said that he wanted to change the regulations and regulate the rate to 0%. Imagine that...
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