Someone has, sir.  I consider you someone.

This guy has made some very bold predictions in the past, and some of them have been awesomely accurate...  THIS particular chart is one of the most bullish I have seen.  Right on the eve of atomic swaps.  With bitcoin doing what it's doing, and Monero threatening to continue to be bullish nomatter what happs to other alts, we might be one of the more happy threads on BCT soon. 

I am starting to get another tingly feeling.  Not that strong yet... but unmistakable. 



https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XMRUSDT/qavM4LCY-Watch-Monero-Fly/

I think you have time.  And this pullback seems very healthy to me anyway...  nice reasonable advances.

The only thing I am wiggly over is the volume.  We are not seeing much of that.  But I still believe the reason volume is hidden as it is happening at OTC desks.  But this is a guess with no solid proof.  That said, there must be metrics somewhere.  The big exchanges know.  I imagine the Kraken OTC desk is humming like a jet engine.  The only volume this ends up driving on the retail exchanges is the small fries doing small fry things...  The big money is most definitely doing business over the counter.

I feel like absence of volume in some of these price moves has been super telling, but in a non-usual way.

*Deleted post with too much personal information...

Leaving it to recognize your kindness, however.

A planned Sybil purchase attack on DNM vendors.

That could explain it. Giant burst of volume, with a trailing off follow through.  While watching IPs, and what they can see about monero traffic as well as traffic to and from the market(s).

Does anyone know if there are TOR stats on graphs somewhere?  # of nodes for example.  It would be interesting to see how that corresponds to Monero transactions, or not.

That reminds me of something...

I have often thought, that since the IRS (and others) are so concerned about Monero privacy it would be feasible that they might try to sybil various aspects of the network.  Obviously the protocol itself is way ahead of almost anything other than TOR for privacy and things like dandelion++ make attacks on the protocol hard.

But a cryptocurrency is more than it's code, and protocol.  It is also it's community, it's users individually, the exchanges, and vendors etc.

I wonder if money is being spent by "whales" to be a lot of exchange traffic for example.

I have not thought about this a lot... there could be big holes in it.

Very underrated at his craft.

Big loss... 

Well it was a more than 20k transaction spike.  In one day.  And even weirder than the spike is the smooth drop.  It is still following that saw tooth pattern which is a faithful repeating patters of the most transactions happening on Monday and Tuesday, and the least on Saturday and Sunday. 

The spike and drop is interesting.  SOMETHING induced a 2x transaction jump.  In one day.  And from 1/12th to 1/6th of the amount of transactions bitcoin has... But even after dropping off... it stayed significantly higher.  As if something caused to heat up, and now it's cooling down.  But what causes that in a market?

The sawtooth is beautiful.  Coins that are traded on exchanges and used for speculation only do NOT have this sort of pattern as clearly.  Look at BCH.  It's basically a random walk.  This coin IS moved around more than Monero... but Monero follows a pattern that has been strengthening for over a year.  One that corresponds with the days the US Postal Service is delivering.  Or the days that vendors on online markets would take and process orders.  You want to get your stuff before the end of the week?  Better order it on Monday.  But no real use rushing to complete a purchase on a SAT or SUN... the vendors won't process it 'till Monday anyway.

So what are people doing with Bitcoin Cash?  Nothing really.

But the proof is on chain for Monero.

Indeed!  And the cool thing is all the atomic swaps or DEX trading int he world cannot play tricks with the number if I am understanding it deeply enough.  Interesting time.

And look at little XMR bucking the field yet again.  The transaction volume is very weird/interesting.  It's hard for me to imagine explanations for all the fairly non-random actions on that chart...  Like the recent strong spike (10 days ago or so) with a gentle falling off to where we were... it's a very strange effect, all encased in a weekly rhythm which i think is most certainly corresponding with DNM activity.

No other coin looks like this.  BTC and ETH come closest.  It is a signature, in my opinion, for a project with actual commerce at the core.

See the difference?

This really is an offshoot of the most interesting part of the math behind Bitcoin (and PGP, and SHA etc) to me personally, as useless a divergence as it is.

SHA-256 allows us to feed an algorithm virtually any data and it will produce a single number out of a finite, but enormous set.  

It's just that this number is so big that it has the property of not being guessable.  Just because it's mega large.  And from so large a domain that collisions (two different input data producing the same result) although absolutely possible, will (probably?) never happen practically.  This along with reliable ways that a person can prove that THEY know the secret number, but without REVEALING it we have a system with which we can do all sorts of odd things.

The really neeto part is we are dealing with such large numbers that as far as we are concerned with our ~70-100 year lifespan, and all the processing power we can muster they will ACT as if they are from an infinite set, though they are not.  So we get all the advantages of a limited set of data, with many of the advantages of an infinite set just because it might as well be infinite as far as we are concerned.

This allows us to do new things.

I find it fitting that many NFTs are monkeys, or rocks, lol.  Because it is our monkey brains at work here.  Putting values on ephemeral things.  And rocks are one of the oldest forms of value we have.

I cannot say whether "NFTs" will continue to be valuable.  I find myself hoping not.  Simply because it is being interested in something shiny, but really missing the point.

It's like we have invented the wheel, but are currently obsessed with using it as a table.

About how long do you predict using scientific sources that it will take us to reach that big psychological barrier (even though I find it to be arbitrary) of the 1 with all the zeros after it?

Certainly your science can forecast that roughly?

Awesome... you, unlike ALL the rest of us, were using W(ater)D(isplacer)-40 for it's actual original intended purpose!

I guess it's just because I have never really been a trader... but I have NEVER understood holding coins on an exchange or ANY service.  I did not do it with Mt Gox, I did not do it with Polo. I (almost) never did it anywhere.

Even Seals with Clubs.  I kept the minimum pittance there ~$10-20 worth so I could jump in a SnG from time to time, but all the rest?  Withdrawn EVERY SINGLE DAY.  If I was going to play anything over pennies I would have to wait on my deposit to clear.

I would never guess that this many exit scams, fractional reserves, and rug pulls would happen and people would still not learn.

Full disclosure- even as paranoid as I have been, even I DID get caught on one exchange going down... I had left a small balance which was super rare.  I was just not as careful as usual. Not much back then, but worth quite a bit now.  All the more reminder to me to NEVER leave a balance anywhere I do not hold the keys, and if I do?  I consider it lost already.  I think I have a 100k SAT balance on Wallet of Satoshi.  But that's like a couple $20s in my pocket.  If I lose it... well I left it there.

Monero is just SO CHEAP and easy to use.  It was not always so.  Cheap, yes, but easy?  Not like now.  There is just about zero excuse.  Your reason up there is compelling entirely without the safety/self sovereignty angle.  But this has been attempted many times (proof of keys).  Even though we can essentially force a massive short squeeze by withdrawing everything...

We never do.

Looks to me like a pretty normal pullback with the RSI on the hourly (and actually the daily) bouncing off 70, like it likes to do... 

Good even tempered price appreciation.  no parabolas here yet.  A good thing.

If I am following that last bit correctly, it is actually something I comfort myself with.  Because we live in a world where to many of us there is this obvious low hanging opportunity and yet the masses seem to be 99% blind.

That's the weird catch-22 in every life changing chance we get.  If they were not hard for most to see, then it would not really be the opportunity it isin the first place.  Chicken, meet egg.

Interesting little blast up on decent volume.  Hmm.

Is it the dawn of atomic swaps?  Some percentage of the billionaires piling into bitcoin seeing the pearl that is Monero as well? 

It looks to me like only coins that have a use case (or even a decent claim to one) are riding up with BTC right now.  It's mostly the old school alts. The next tier shitcoins (ala polkadot) all seem to be limp, while things like Binance Coin are headed up (NOT an endorsement of that thing... but it is a coin with an actual use).  Not sure about the whole defi circus as I cannot stand to look at that without throwing up.

I keep patiently waiting for the time that we finally hear the buzz of "Wow.. Monero was really undervalued for such a long time... how did we not see that this was going to be one of the big ones?"

I have been meaning to post one of my "Can you feel it?  I can." posts for days now.  So i missed out on looking smart... lol/  But I do STILL feel it... We are not done yet, I don't think.

The exchanges themselves can naked short.  And I guarantee some of them do it, but it will be to their own demise.

This is a very important thing to cultivate.  It has made me generally peaceful through many of the downs (and ups!) of Bitcoin over the years.  I cannot say I am 100% cured in this regard, but one of the strange things I have learned over the last decade is to not care about money all that much any more.  It really does not fix anything, and most of the things we think it will do for us... it will not.


This is one of the most weirdly frustrating things.  I have not cast many  pearls really, because people do not listen to you, and it's a waste of time.  But now and then I try, and it still blows my mind.

I accidentally left a bluetooth headset in a box I handed off to a co-worker.  This morning he asked if I could give him my address and he'd mail it.  I said, sure, and told him if he gives me a BTC address i will cover more than the postage.  "Nah.",  He said... "no worries".  "Well, just think!  If I send you 10-15 bucks in BTC today, it could be worth a lot more in a few years!".  "I could only wish that would be true." was his final reply.

I would really like to give him the money.  But if he's going to remain asleep then I am not going to waste SATS sending them to a wallet he will not be able to find the keys for when he realizes it is now worth $500.  And I will not be able to bear the message I will get... "Hey!  How can I get to the Bitcoin you sent me?"  You can't.  Neither of us can now... 

I have another workmate that I sent $5 to in BTC years ago.  This one, though I set up the wallet and keep a copy of the seed words myself.  Good thing, as I am 100% sure he's lost it, and it's worth 4 figures in USD now.  I am not sure what I will charge him to give him the keys later. 

It's so weirdly frustrating.

Well.  I think we will see resistance in this decade, but I believe the gas pedal is getting mushed pretty good.   I think we have these ranges to contend with:



But I think we will spend less time in the 5-s than we did in the 40s range.

This really is the tipping point...  If we do not get rejected here the time spent between 50-60 will be less than 40-50 was.