The only part of this theory that does not make sense is the fact that Satoshi and Hal seemed to disagree a little about core issues.  Scaling for example.  Hal foresaw the way we ARE scaling with L2s as banks basically.  He also foresaw the need to keep blocks small while Satoshi was still talking about nodes centralizing leaving the door open for the BSV freaks.

That said, Hal certainly could have been having both sides of that argument as a form of opsec.

But there's no doubt Hal is at the very top of the list of possible Satoshis...

Damnit... if I had the raw tracks of this I could produce an awesome remix...  The vocals are fairly weak, but the BIGGEST bad part is the pitch. I could fix that in 20 minutes... Natural, perfect. Beautiful.  The delivery is so so, but I could notch that up a little too... Oh and the timing on some of the phrasings could use some love... and that's more subtle and would take a little more time.  Add some real drums... rework the meh reverb etc...

Just dreaming a little.

I

I agree with your probability of 40% (or 45?) that Bitcoin reaches $120k+ in 2022.  That sounds good.  fairly bullish in my opinion.  As there are lots of scenarios in the other 60% (35?) where Bitcoin makes it to somewhere north of 80.

But I will add a prediction of my own.

*IF* we make it to 120k...  a quarter mill within 6 months from that would be a 75% chance.

My basic reasoning is if we can make it that far past 100k, then I would think something between worldwide FOMO and a parabolic blow off are in the cards.  And I would favor the former with the difference being a less violent correction after it.  I think we stay volatile, but less so than in past years.  Another way to say it is I see 120k+ to be a 25% chance of being the TOP in your 40% chance scenario.

cORRECTION... Proudhon is part of Bitcoin FUNDAMENTALS, rather than a technical indicator.

But that is is bullish, is correct.

I have two that have repeated...  And they sort of fit that same model.

1.  This one more when I was a student.  I have not had it recently... I am in a bustling school... but no matter what hallway I go down I cannot find my class.  And I am going to fail if I miss one more... and the branching hallways never end.  And I never pick the right one.  Ugh.

2.  I am driving a car around a cloverleaf.  You know that sort of 365 degree loop you might make to get on a highway.  But I cannot see.  My vision is growing dimmer and dimmer.  And for some reason my hands cannot grip the steering wheel so I am progressively trying harder and harder to turn it to stay on the road (and BARELY pulling it off somehow!) with the constant threat that at any moment I could lose control and run off the pavement.

For me, the common themes in "nightmares" is not being able to perform a fairly simple task.  And not being able to live up to the expectations of ______.

Have at it Dr. Freud.

And therein lies the interesting part of the bet, if you ask me.

You can ask:  If xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then what is it worth to hold, and what to cash out now?

And how does that balance with my geriatric mother, and my struggling sister, and my children, and my wife, and my own desires for extravagance (umm, nil).

And if xxx BTC is destined to equal xx% of the worlds wealth, then how much is it worth to me NOW to lock in some comfort and security for MYSELF rather than provide fir all those folks who did not see it coming.

THAT... is a VERY PERSONAL DECISION.  And one that cannot be rightly judge by any man or woman NOT in YOUR shoes.

(this is, by extension, the reason we get angry when people come to beg for BTC they could have bought, or mined (or in the case of some lunatics played poker for)).

I have nothing but respect for this position.  And it makes crazy good sense.

I have cashed in some of my stack at various times over the years.  And the defense I have for it is pretty simple.

- If it goes up? Well that's the problem I WANT right there.  I still have most of it.
- If it goes down? Well hooray me... My Bitcoin secured some luxury for me.
- I don't live forever.  And I can't take it to my grave.
- Making my kids billionaires will ruin both them AND their children.

I *do* think you are possibly wrong about your cycle thesis.  Even though I support your reasoning behind your hedge.  In fact I think it's a damn good hedge (really... that's my point here).  I could have retired multiple times just in what I lost between 2018-2020 on the only alt coin I own.  It's regained ALL that value in the last year... and will again, I think. And it's my smaller position.  I went through the same pain you did.  But that pain did something really weird to me.  It made me realize that I will be about as happy as I am whether or not I have the money. 

All my joy and all my problems will persist whether I can afford ... well whatever.

And I am naturally frugal.  Got it from my dad, I guess.  I have never NEEDED the money.

That said... looks like I have some relatives who may need to be taken care of.  So you better bet your ass I will make sure that can happen.

That's why I see your position as righteous.  You are not continuing to roll the dice like I am.  At least not on the whole stack.  And there is a chance I pay more for that mistake than you do by avoiding it.  After all... I can lose ALL the value of my position.  Or I could die tomorrow.  And like I said... I am not gambling the whole lot either.  It's paid for some stuff...

But who knows?

Someone else has been saying exactly this for quite some time.  For the life of me I cannot remember his name... but I do remember he is devilishly handsome.

I assume it's already been mentioned... but this works for me:

http://bitcoinity.org/markets

Here is the IP DNS sends me:  144.76.60.229

You know... the thing.

Maybe this?

https://bitcoinwisdom.io/

(edit - JINX! )

Seriously.  What are you mad about?  You come in here and beg for free money, and then play the victim when you don't find anyone willing to give you the 3.69 bitcoin you are asking for.

Do you know how long it takes the average person to earn that much value?  Really.  I am asking you that question.  Because I would think most people could figure that out fairly easily.  But since you do not seem to be in that boat, let's do it together.

Let's say you make 70k USD a year.  Pretty good scratch if you average it out around the world.  That's the benefit of the doubt for most folks here...  Some might make more... some less.

But what you have been asking for for YEARS at this point??  is CURRENTLY worth: $155485.53 

MORE THAN TWO YEARS OF A PERSONS LABOR  And for some it could be much more.  And that's not even considering taxes and living expenses.  It would take the average person earning that living with a family 3-10 years to save that much money. But you come in here... and think repeatedly asking for enough money to buy a really nice house many places in the world is OK, and that when we get annoyed by the constant bullshit we are somehow greedy bastards.  That the "community" is terrible because they will not give you free money?

Seriously... this is so arrogant and selfish.  How about you get to work and start saving some bitcoin.  When you first came here to start begging you could have bought what you are asking for for less than the current value of ONE Bitcoin.

I have huge medical bills for a family member right now.  How about you help me pay for that.  I am going to need more than 3.69 bitcoin though.  You ever see me asking for people to do that here?  No.  Because I have pride, and honor and will try to provide for my family.  I might not make it.  I might have to ask for help.  But I am going to fight all the way to the end of that battle.

You know... why am I trying to talk sense to you...

Fuck off.

No biggy.

But the dude needs to get a life... good grief.

I have him on ignore for this exact reason...  But it does give me pleasure to have my VERY OWN nifty block explorer running on Tor I can enjoy:



http://yxxwryd4hrpnipwmmlp7jh3a4kae5pxuzspwbwpzs2ayxizcd52bmpid.onion/address/3FHMwDiGDibp8VcR9sdnH3LoWnY6v4ztzT

If you have 0.5 BTC you realize you knew about it in time that you should really have 5 BTC.
If you have 5 BTC you realize you knew about it in time that you should really have 50 BTC.
If you have 50 BTC you realize you knew about it in time that you should really have 500 BTC.
If you have 500 BTC you realize you knew about it in time that you should really have 5000 BTC.
If you have 5000 BTC you realize you knew about it in time that you should really have... Well. Fuck you, you damn genius.

So it goes.

Thing is...everyone up there... Which I imagine represents pretty much all of us... Is gonna be just fine.

Don't sell now.

Agreed.  And though I am certainly extremely biased Monero is STILL one of the most undervalued coins out there.  It is incorrectly valued.  Dogcoins, DeFi, and NFTs have pulled in so much hype for the last 1-2 years.  As we see that fading, I expect we should see a more favorable xmr/btc pair even if we see BTC rise.  I expect XMR could still rise with it, or at least hold up better than the rest of the alts.

I mentioned that I feel like "privacy" is a rising buzzword.  But I also think we may also see BTC and ALTS decouple a bit as ETH starts to fall apart and people look to the leader for value storage.  So this could be good or bad, but I am thinking we at least hold up better than the rest of the field.

My thoughts on this matter from 7 years ago.  For a while I felt like I was one of the only folks not "playing".  Maybe I missed out on Risto spewing a lot of money... dunno.  But I never wanted to touch the damn thing with a 10ft pole.  These thoughts were exchanged with another forum member at the time.  He agreed that it was not really a positive direction for the "community" at the time.  But of course Monero did not give a crap what we were all doing.

There are quite a few rumblings out there now about "Privacy". 

There is a notable possibility that Privacy might see a very sharp rise in demand as we move into a world in which a lack of privacy is allowing us to be controlled.

Sprinkle a little hype about in the form of something like "privacy season" or some such silly business?

Weeeeeee.

The death of my own father was the beginning of a sort of journey that, well, I am still on it.  It's been most of a decade now.  I am sure it is different for all people.  I was not close to my father.  He was the most introverted man I have ever known.  His own father died just days before he was born.

Anyway.  There are a lot of positive things along the way of this particular journey as far as I can tell.  It's hard too.  I hope you find peace, and joy amidst the grief.