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1661  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 02, 2022, 02:02:57 PM
According to so far unconfirmed reports, Kamyshevakha has been taken. For Russia, the operational space is open for the assault on Lisichansk from the south. It seems that the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Donbas is becoming critical.
1662  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 02, 2022, 01:51:08 PM
What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.

So you're saying that if I go to the Russian subforum and offer to buy 1BTC for 35 000$ I will have no takers as everyone there will not be tempted by this "scam" currency?  Grin
Again, I need to remind you what forum you're posting on!
Perhaps you will find someone who wants to make a deal, because there are a lot of fools and suckers in the world. In general, the Russian economy is making consistent efforts to abandon dollars and euros, switching to settlements in national currencies.

I remember which forum I'm posting on, look at my signature. Unlike you, I do it for free, and you cultivate your Russophobia and spread lies for money.
1663  Economy / Economics / Re: Will it ever be for Belarus? on: June 02, 2022, 01:34:32 PM
Lukashenko is cut from the same cloth as Putin and was actually trying to position himself to take over from Yeltsin before Putin got a grip on power. Once these two greedy and selfish old men run out of time it will free an opportunity up a small window of opportunity for these countries yet again. Unfortunately these windows often get seized by the next dictator instead of offering a chance for democracy and innovation to thrive.
What really surprises me about the adherents of Western democracy is their absolute intolerance to alternative forms of government and their aggressive attitude towards any manifestation of dissent in the sphere of government. Why try to equate everyone with the same brush, ignoring natural diversity for historical reasons and differences in cultural traditions?
1664  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 02, 2022, 01:28:35 PM
I don’t understand what surprised you so much in this law that you have already mentioned it several times? This is the case when the legislative initiative adequately responded to the changed requirements of real life. The 40-year limit was too strict and was actually abolished, increased to the retirement age limit. The modern army is not only and not so much drill on the parade ground and forced marches in full uniform over rough terrain, but also the management of complex equipment, which requires a fairly long time to learn.

Look at the attempts by Western instructors to hastily train Ukrainian soldiers in the handling of Western military equipment. After a few weeks or even a couple of months of intensive express training, the success of the Ukrainians in shooting from American howitzers is more than modest (let's face it - they have not learned how to shoot accurately from them). Russian military equipment is usually easier to manage than Western ones, but nonetheless. If a person knows how to control a missile system well, he can successfully do it at the age of 50, and even at 60.
1665  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 02, 2022, 12:46:36 PM
~
Do I understand correctly that you are now blaming the United States and the European Union for imposing sanctions on the import of cash dollars and euros into Russia, thereby limiting the freedom of Russians to buy them?

No, as always, you understand completely wrong. You know, my keys my coins!
I can deny you at any time to force me to exchange my BTC for ETH!

The US and the EU can deny Russia's central bank to use of their currencies because they don't want to let go of their money for garbage!
On the other hand, the CB of Russia is telling their people to not try to buy USD or EUR because they are not allowed, despite those rubles being their own money!

Think who has the keys in this analogy and understand who the one telling others they are not allowed to use their own money as they wish is here! Besides, this is not the USSR, you can't simply fake everything that happens in that country, I know even guys in telegram channels dedicated to mining are talking about how to get USD on the black market, or use yuans to swap it, so the fiat is there, is just that the government doesn't want you to get it.

For a guy who comes from a country that banned even this forum, I'm certainly amazed that you can't understand basic things while you still keep coming here daily, well, less for actually discussing bitcoin and more for Russian propaganda but I do somehow understand the desperation in some, I've seen it numerous times in the last 4 decades.
This is not true, the Central Bank of Russia does not prohibit the sale or purchase of dollars and euros, currently there are no such restrictions in Russia. Restrictions on the import of cash currency exist on the part of the United States and the European Union.

What you are right about is that the dollar and the euro are now considered a scam in Russia.
1666  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 02, 2022, 11:57:34 AM
But even if you buy cash dollars and euros, the question is why?

Things like the freedom of doing whatever I want with my money, or stuff like that?
Do I understand correctly that you are now blaming the United States and the European Union for imposing sanctions on the import of cash dollars and euros into Russia, thereby limiting the freedom of Russians to buy them?
1667  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 02, 2022, 07:11:53 AM
This is some free consultancy for the RF:

Your objective is competing in a world that is growing fast. If you are left behind your people and the nation as such will not do well, no matter how many wars you fight.

- Develop the east. The territory is immense, the opportunities endless, you do not need to look further. I understand that as of now, there are political reasons why Moscow / St Petersburg would rather not do that, but long term it causes tensions.
- Attract investment, both local and foreign. You cannot do without it. See next point on how to enable that, but, as a hint, you should be seen as a pacific partner and stable on that regards.
- Put in place the enablers of growth: Rule of law, fair and speedy justice. This implies you need to get rid of the Cleptocrats and local despots, no way around that.
- Keep your strengths: good universities, good research, ability to manage complex projects, ...
- Use wisely the money that is coming from exporting natural resources. Try to build up the chain of value (e.g. do not export crude oil, but refined products).
- Do not enter into unnecessary wars. Your territory is quite protected and other than that your real threat is terrorism (the real one, not the guys with the "tatoos").
- Do not spend 11% of your GDP in weapons - it is not needed.

Life could be very different in the RF.
There is a saying in Russia: "It's a pity that everyone who knows how to properly run the state is already working in a taxi." Smiley
1668  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 01, 2022, 06:13:32 PM
In Russia, you can buy non-cash dollars and euros in a bank or on a currency exchange, the question is why?

What about cash, like in any normal country, from Mexico to Japan from Nigeria to Bangladesh?
Oh wait, I just said normal!

Even if you transfer them to the West through a bank that is not under sanctions and is not disconnected from Swift, and pay for some European or American goods, you will have logistical problems with delivery.

But, but UnionPay!
Oh, again, I forgot, China said a big no thank you!
https://www.rbc.ru/newspaper/2022/04/21/625ffd519a7947196d66f36c

Therefore, dollars and euros in Russia are not particularly in demand now, and the ruble is growing.

Of course, that's why you're banning people from buying them..
Remember those times when one soviet ruble was 1.35 dollars and 0.10 on the black market? Tell me one difference between those times and now!

The import of cash dollars and euros into Russia was banned by Western sanctions, it seems, as early as the beginning of March. But even if you buy cash dollars and euros, the question is why? Previously, people bought to go to Europe to relax on vacation, and now they go to rest in the Crimea. Or to Turkey, but it seems they also willingly accept rubles there. Dollars and euros lost confidence in themselves in Russia, due to Western sanctions and the freezing of funds of the Central Bank of Russia.
1669  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 01, 2022, 05:42:56 PM
It looks like you do not understand the essence of the problem that is now facing the Central Bank of Russia. He now needs not to strengthen the ruble, but rather weaken it

So why aren't they allowing people to buy $ at that exchange rate, that for sure would weaken the currency...oh ..wait..a fake problem, just how everything about the ruble is fake.
In Russia, you can buy non-cash dollars and euros in a bank or on a currency exchange, the question is why? Even if you transfer them to the West through a bank that is not under sanctions and is not disconnected from Swift, and pay for some European or American goods, you will have logistical problems with delivery. Therefore, dollars and euros in Russia are not particularly in demand now, and the ruble is growing.
1670  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: June 01, 2022, 04:37:30 AM
If you are guided by the reports of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, then they usually reflect the real state of affairs with a delay of 2-3 days. I specifically referred to a report by a civilian correspondent for Russian television who does not work on the front lines. Severodonetsk has been taken, a cleansing operation is underway in the city, the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been forced out into the industrial zone and are deprived of the opportunity to leave for Lisichansk - all bridges have been destroyed or are under full fire control of Russia.
Nope, I used ISW report and this map
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/52.650/38.639
And correct me if I'm wrong, but russian defense ministry haven't announced that city is under their control.
What is known about the situation in Severodonetsk last night.

The head of the Lugansk OVA, Sergei Gaidai, reports that the fighting in the city continues, it is not blocked, although he acknowledged that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR control most of Severodonetsk.

The Rybar Telegram channel writes that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have moved away from residential areas to the industrial zone of the Azot plant.

Ramzan Kadyrov said that the total cleansing of Severodonetsk had been completed, "the enemy in the city had been defeated."

Military correspondent of the State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company Yevgeny Poddubny writes that the RF Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR have taken control of the northern, eastern and central parts of the city, and the cleansing of Severodonetsk from the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been completed in 85% of the territories of previously occupied city blocks. In addition, Poddubny reports that the Russian Armed Forces have reached the Severodonetsk CHPP.

According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the Russian Armed Forces control the northeastern and southeastern outskirts of Severodonetsk, continuing to fortify within the city. It is also reported that the Russian Armed Forces and the People's Militia of the LPR are fighting south of Severodonetsk in Toshkovka, Ustinovka, Voronovo, Borovskoye and Metolkino, trying to take the city into the "cauldron" from the south. This link is for May 30, a day behind.

Summarizing the above, it seems that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no chances to keep Severodonetsk (or it has already been taken). Do you want to talk about it?

ps Chechens of Kadyrov in the SBU building in Severodonetsk

Who started the war? Russians, without a question. Why? Because Ukraine wants to join NATO and you are afraid of NATO, is this right or do you really believe in the military operation motives that Putin said days before the war?

You have to seriously ask yourself some questions. Why is it always Russia that has problems with bordered countries? Georgia - 2008, Crimea - 2014, Ukraine - 2022.
Why do Polish dislike Russians more than Germans? I know three languages, German, English and Russian. I had no problem in Poland when I was asking someone a question in German and English but when they were hearing Russian (I have a great Russian accent, I have lived in Moscow too), sometimes they were ignoring me or weren't bothering.
Do you know why? Because Germany changed and Russia didn't. Germans don't worship Hitler but Russians worship Stalin. Germans dislike what Hitler did but Russians like what Stalin did and some people even pray for him. Russia hasn't changed a single, it still has imperialistic goals.

Ask yourself, why post-soviet 1. Joined 2. Are joining and 3. Want to join NATO but don't want to return back to the USSR?
Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia. Have you heard about these countries or do you know from your history that some of them were part of the Soviet Union and some of them were satellite nations of the Soviet Union?

You guys better ask yourself why Putin and other guys are rich, have multi-billion dollars, palaces and you have a low quality of life outside the Moscow and Saints Peterburg, dream to get higher education abroad.
Visit Norway and see how Norway spends its income on its citizens. Then ask yourself, why Putin doesn't do the same.
Wow, so much expression and sharp questions. I don't care about your Russophobia, I'm not trying to please you here. Я pyccкий и мнe нe нyжнo oдoбpeниe oт зaпaднoгo oбщecтвa дeгeнepaтoв, кoтopыe цeлyют нeгpaм нoги, cтыдяcь cвoeгo кoлoниaльнoгo пpoшлoгo, чecтвyют пeдepacтoв и пoдвepгaют диcкpиминaции бeлыx гeтepoceкcyaльныx мyжчин пpocтo пoтoмy, чтo oни бeлыe и гeтepoceкcyaльныe. At some point, the West took a wrong turn, it was during the Great Depression. You forgot your traditional values and Christian virtue and sold your soul to the Golden Calf. Now the Dollar is your God and "make money" is your only mantra. Now you are flying into the abyss, but Russia will not follow you. We do not need your land and we are not afraid of NATO, just put your missiles away and let us live on our land as we want. And if the answer is "no" - we will take all your Nutella and Russia will be from Lisbon to Tokyo, including London.
1671  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: June 01, 2022, 03:57:20 AM
I analyzed both sides of the argument here. IMO, the Russian central bank doesn't need to manipulate the currency in a big way to prop up the Ruble. Corporations such as Rosneft and Gazprom are required by law to convert 50% of their forex revenues to Ruble (it was 80% a few weeks back, but then the level was lowered by the government). Given the massive oil and gas revenues directed towards Russia, this step is alone to keep the Ruble exchange rates stable for a long time. And from what I heard, the other capital control measures are easing as well.
It looks like you do not understand the essence of the problem that is now facing the Central Bank of Russia. He now needs not to strengthen the ruble, but rather weaken it - in order to benefit from Russia's huge trade surplus. Therefore, the reduction in the mandatory rate of sale of foreign currency for exporters to 50%, and the increase in the period of mandatory sale to 120 days (which actually completely cancels it). And the problem is that it seems that this is not enough - after the recent sharp reduction in the key rate, the ruble has weakened, but now it has begun to strengthen again. Because Europe now needs rubles to buy gas, and in Russia no one needs dollars and euros because of the loss of confidence in them and high sanctions risks.
1672  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower on: June 01, 2022, 03:44:10 AM
Sure... 11%... just around 10 times more than US and several times EU, UK, etc... rates, makes no difference to the argument whatsoever.
Not only the key rate figure is important here, but the fact that Russia is now in the phase of reducing the key rate, trying to weaken the ruble from excessive strengthening, and the West is in the phase of raising the key rate, trying to cope with rising inflation. And this is a great tactical advantage for Russia, because lowering the rate is easy and pleasant, but raising the rate is painful - given the large debt load of Western countries and inflated bubbles in the stock markets.

We can now talk about the recent European oil embargo approved today. THAT will make a difference.
EU oil embargo? Besides Hungary and pipeline oil? An attempt by the European Union to put a good face on a bad game, so as not to lose face. Russia will sell less oil for the West and get more money for it - that's what the oil embargo is in its current form. Grin
1673  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 31, 2022, 07:25:18 PM
Glorious Russian Looting Forces at it again (I mean they've never been not at it, it's just a never-ending cringe and horror).
I don't see Nutella here, so it looks like a fake.
1674  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 31, 2022, 01:28:08 PM
And your personal support for Ukraine reeks of justifying Nazism.

Remind us, what is Kremlin planning to do with what they call "nazis"?
You won't like it. First they will be shot, and then they will be sent to Siberia to mine uranium or build some large-scale infrastructure project to perpetuate Putin's name for centuries.
1675  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower on: May 31, 2022, 10:57:15 AM
US GDP will be largely untouched and growing. Russia's will not.



Really?

Like this:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5400804.0

What do you base your claims on?



Again, you are mixing concepts. The volatility of the rouble is based on the competitiveness of the currency in the global market, not on the GDP. On top of that and if you are speaking of debt in particular, you should look at the interest rates. You cannot keep the rate that the RF central bank has set without damaging growth.



I am afraid that I am going to explain some very basic economic concepts here:

Just so that even  those with little understanding of what this means: US finances it's debt at 0.75% interest. Russia has to pay 17% (as of today) for people to hold roubles - along with breaching contracts and demanding payment in roubles. Now you got the full picture and why debt at .75% is not really an issue.

What happens when people can get a 17% just by lending the money? Very simple: they do not invest and they may choose not to buy beyond the strictly necessary. This situation cannot hold - it is temporary and the valuation of the rouble, in my view, will be permanently damaged with the new diplomatic stance of the RF.

Lack of investment has a side consequence on countries that are heavy exporters of commodities - production requires CAPEX. High interest rates make CAPEX projects and productive investment less attractive as just by holding you get 17%.

Just to put an example: If you have 1000 USD and you leave them during 5 years at 17% you would get 1873 USD ("risk free"). That is a "trash bond" and the RF has become exactly that: a trash debtor.

At this point on the discussion and to make it fair, I would ask you on what do you base your claim that a country with 1/15th of the GDP of the US and subject to sanctions is going to be the "next superpower".

OCDE data to 2060 paints a very different picture (unfortunately I cannot link a picture, so just select Russia, US, OCDE and China). The next superpower will not write Latin or Cyrillic characters.

https://data.oecd.org/gdp/real-gdp-long-term-forecast.htm
Why don’t you say in your reasoning that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has already lowered the rate twice, most recently by 3%, and now the key rate in Russia is 11% with a tendency to further decrease? Why don't you also say that Russia, unlike Western countries, has a very small debt burden and the issue of debt refinancing is not too acute?
1676  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress] on: May 31, 2022, 08:22:43 AM
Are you sure? And than what? Add Ukrainian territory to Russian Federation? I thought the goal of this "military operation" was to protect people of LNR and DNR, and to make Ukraine to accept them as an independent republics.
If their goal is to protect these self proclaimed states and not occupy territory of Ukraine, why did occupied Kherson, part of Zaporishia oblast, why they bombing Odessa or why they tried to took Kiev?
I have already said before that Putin's first offer is usually the most beneficial for partners. If they do not agree to it, then a worse offer follows. Kyiv did not immediately agree to the conditions of Moscow, therefore, in addition to the Crimea and Donbass, it lost several more regions. The longer Ukraine delays accepting Moscow's proposals for a peaceful settlement of the conflict, the worse the terms of the agreement will be for it. If you wait until all the Ukrainians who are able to hold weapons in their hands are finished, then the initial conditions of Moscow will seem incredibly profitable and generous to Kyiv, but this will no longer be relevant.
1677  Economy / Economics / Re: Pay in rubles or have your gas shut off by April on: May 31, 2022, 06:55:52 AM
Today, Gazprom stopped gas supplies to the Netherlands for non-payment under the new scheme. It seems the same fate will befall Denmark.
1678  Other / Politics & Society / Re: Will Russia Emerge As The Next Dominant Superpower on: May 31, 2022, 06:37:03 AM
You forget a few things......

Russia made most of their money from Oil and Gas sales....and a lot of countries are now moving away from being dependent on Russia for Oil and Gas. (So they are losing money now)
The threat of an embargo has driven up oil and gas prices, so Russia is making more money even by selling less physical volume. And there is no embargo itself, Russia has simply shifted the logistical focus from Europe to Asia.

They are spending lots of money to replace weapons like rockets & Tanks that were lost in the Ukraine war. (Expenses) and the loss in income due to the sanctions are crippling some of their companies. (A huge blow for their economy and tax revenue)
Mostly expired ammunition is consumed, which otherwise would have to be disposed of, incurring additional costs. Instead of spent weapons, new ones are being made, the Russian military-industrial complex is fully loaded with work and orders for years to come. An armed conflict on a foreign territory is a very profitable event from an economic point of view.

Look at countries like Zimbabwe... that was also sanctioned by the West during Robert Mugabe's rule.  Wink
Russia is not Zimbabwe.
1679  Economy / Economics / Re: Russian Ruble Surpasses Brazil’s Real as Year’s Best-Performing Currency on: May 31, 2022, 06:05:54 AM
It is an illusion..
When in Argentina and Turkey they tried to make the same illusion with similar methods, they did not succeed.
1680  Economy / Economics / Re: Countries with the most expensive fuel | Greece's case study on: May 31, 2022, 04:54:34 AM

Tesla is already receiving orders for their Semi, by depositing a $20.000 down payment. If I'm not mistaken, deliveries are claimed to start from 2024, according to Elon Musk. A few other companies are also said to develop, or have developed smaller trucks already, such as BYD or Daimler. It would be interesting to see what range they'll achieve, because they're way too heavy, and how fast they'll charge
I wish the whole world turns to these environment friendly vehicles - and there is no need for fuel - this OIL war has done so much damage to the world. The monopoly is not going to end and there will be no peace on the earth if the same situation continues.
Instead of the current problems with gasoline, problems with electricity will begin, that's all.
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