I've thought over my trading history and realize 80%-90% if my profits are all made during new-ATH rallies and the huge crashes afterwards. I perform very poorly during bear markets and consolidations, and make bank during the rally/crash conditions, doubling my coins exponentially every week. So I should probably just make a resolution to only trade during those short 2-3 month time periods and then leave whenever there is a bear market. Maybe I use the 1W MACD to determine this.
Of course you do. Any mug can make gains when liquidity is pouring into the market. In a bear market when liquidity is being drained from the market, only those ballsy and disciplined enough to sell and buy the utmost extremities of the trend line will make money, other than that the odds are stacked against you and you are just whale fodder. I made most of my gains from Nov 20th onwards up until mid Dec (I sold high and got very lucky with buy-ins at near base of Dec 5th crash). Since then profits have been low and my recent max leveraged short trade that I opted to finally hold out on, got absolutely fkn slaughtered by the time I tapped out which takes me firmly into net loss territory since 2014. Lesson learned. Same lesson as is occurring in your head and the same lesson that countless others have been taught. Don't trade a blatant bear market. The result of this is more and more liquidity leaves Bitcoin until the point where the splashes made by greedy whales become less and less pronounced due to less and less liquidity reacting to them. No ultimate bottoming out of any market entailed a 45% swing from bottom within a few days, not even a past Bitcoin bottom. Have also noticed that Bitstamp are becoming tighter and tighter with allowing deposits to register in peoples accounts. I sent over just $3K the other day and again, they are wanting me to 'prove' where I am getting it from. I told them to fuck off. I am getting my money back, I can't see how I am going to get any amount of money back onto that exchanges cos no way am I giving them any personal details of the description that they are asking for. Bet there are quite as lot of Bitcoiners who are feeling the same. Not exactly conducive to increased adoption is it? They asked you for 'proof', or they asked they asked you to make a simple statement on a KYC form? |
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Huobis a scary place when it goes quiet.
I guarantee a lot of people lost money this morning.
Im not sure if anyone has any idea whether this is going up or down but with just a $40 drop on this 'news' it makes it less likely that China news is going to see us retesting those previous lows...
It's probably going to be more than $40 eventually. Wait till 4H MACDs go down. We'll see, just as likely this all continues and it ends up being called an epic bear trap. Price is way overdue for correction with or without news a drop to at least $450 some time in the next week is likely. |
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Huobis a scary place when it goes quiet.
I guarantee a lot of people lost money this morning.
Im not sure if anyone has any idea whether this is going up or down but with just a $40 drop on this 'news' it makes it less likely that China news is going to see us retesting those previous lows...
It's probably going to be more than $40 eventually. Wait till 4H MACDs go down. |
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I've thought over my trading history and realize 80%-90% if my profits are all made during new-ATH rallies and the huge crashes afterwards. I perform very poorly during bear markets and consolidations, and make bank during the rally/crash conditions, doubling my coins exponentially every week. So I should probably just make a resolution to only trade during those short 2-3 month time periods and then leave whenever there is a bear market. Maybe I use the 1W MACD to determine this.
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We'd probably correct at about these levels anyway at some point. But the fact that any Chinese fart of the news can cause such moves is not doing any favour to Bitcoin and us who'd like to trade it. There's just no safety anymore that you could rely on charts, orderbook, momentum, fundamentals when any moment some shit could come from China and cancel all that.
I mean what's the point of waiting 3d MACD to cross when China could cause a hit to the price any moment.
?? do you really think trading is that easy? There's no easier way on the Earth to make money than crypto trading in normal circumstances. there s could be some truth about it. but if you cant take BTC trading because of the FUD, you shouldn t try forex... There s nothing more difficult than forex trading. But i guess you have to see it by yourself. There are two reasons I want to leave btc trading and go to forex and stock trading: 1. My money is not safe on unregulated overseas crypto exchanges. 2. When I trade bitcoin I do not feel like I can be 'flat' on the market. There are two positions: a. BTC. I am betting on the rise of BTC, but if I'm wrong, I lose value in USD and am 'losing money'. b. USD. In this case I am betting on the fall of BTC, but if I'm wrong, I lose value in potential coins to buy and am 'losing coins' or 'missing the train'. Since bitcoin is in a huge historic uptrend, the implications of losing coins are high. Some bitcoiners even measure their wealth in coins and not dollars. In addition, when I hold USD I am also taking risk and betting on the safety of the funds on an exchange (see a). So there is no position where I am 'flat on the market' and not making some type of bet and am content on leaving. I am tied to the market 24/7 to make sure I'm in the right binary position. It is a highly stressful and obsessive situation which has wreaked havoc on my life. In forex, on the other hand, being in USD is always perfectly fine and you don't obsess about missed opportunity costs in one of the dozen currencies (or hundreds of other assets besides forex) you can trade. |
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I did good trading doge today too. Just bought that crash at 123 and sold it at 132. It might go higher but when it comes to alts I'm all about just taking the free money without any speculation.
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Come on TERA, come to EToro, trade some forex and stocks, need someone to follow there until I learn the game  etoro's main feature is its social network and it is not actually a very good broker in terms of order execution. I have already just opened up an account with one of the top brokers in the world who will offer me the best quality executions and direct interbank market access. |
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Now that new bad china news has cancelled out with the good china news, what we are left with is a +60% rally that is very overbought and needs a correction.
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Fortunately, when I 'went bull', it doesn't mean I actally bought anything (that was done much earlier). It was just a sentiment change.
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Just as I suspected, major news events would occur as soon as I "went bull"...
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I wonder what Bitstamp knew when they posted all those 'to the moon' posts. That a bunch of wires hit their accounts?
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China is like Simon. Simon says Buy BTC. Simon says Sell BTC.
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More likely it's the media doing manipulation rather than PBOC and these weird chinese news sources are being paid by bitcoiners to post fake, modified, misleading, or mistranslated articles, in order to perform insider daytrading. It's entirely possible the PBOC has said nothing at all since December and even in December the news might have been modified.
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The alts are Chinese manipulated even more than Bitcoin, so I don't want to touch them just in case China disappears again. The reason I still trade Bitcoin under these circumstances is because I actually I have a bullish view about its future, but I can't say the same about the current altcoins. Also, I have to hold coins on an altcoin exchange in order to trade them, compounding risk.
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I could see myself eating my words when Huobi gets shut down tomorrow...
Next news... PBOC warns about enforcement actions and police if banks do not comply with the notice.
But the best thing I can do is follow the charts. I don't have a crystal ball.
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It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.
So when are we hitting 250 again? At this is point that is only possible if a number of exchanges are shut down and this occurs before new exchanges open up. With the right event occuring, it could cause a spike down the chart so hard that the longer indicators do NOT cross up. At that point I would no longer be bull. I cannot count on this happening though, especially with NY framework in place by July. You should know that I am more of a reactive trader than a predictive trader. I make talk about predictions in here in order to socialize but I when I am actually trading, I am mostly reacting to the latest events and what is actually happening on the charts. Everythign I do is according to formulas involving all charting timeframes and minizing risk by acting in phases. A key to being successful is being able to adapt to changes and those who are stubborn about their positions and their attitudes get punished. |
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It is with regret that I announce I have gone bull, and have bought back most my coins in phases over the past 3 days. Once the 3D cross happens (which seems inevitable), I am offlining them, and taking a break from trading during the midpoint-consolidations.
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Huobi is the new Mtgox. We're still not past the point of a centralized high volume exchange with shady operations and manipulation serving as market leader with the rest of the exchanges as slaves.
Will this ever happen ?? ... FOREX has the same problems with shady operators Its human nature and I dont think there is a fix unless u regulate ... Then one side effect of this is that we are stuck with special interest groups rigging the game  I just don't think you can say we've moved on from mtgox when now we have something even worse. |
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The Gox scandal involved more than 850,000 coins. That is almost 7% of the coins in circulation. If Bitcoin is capable of surviving it by stabilizing at 500+ levels, then we can be pretty much sure that the value will never go below that.
Is there any evidence that any of these coins have actually hit exchanges? |
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