Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... But this is btc:-D Btc dont care You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me...  How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?- If this price is breached, Goat wins. - If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins. Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date. you make a claim that btc will go down 50%. Then try to make a bet that has nothing to do with btc going down 50%? What am I missing? +1 He kinda mentioned it, if he loses he has enough btc that it makes the 50,000 an eatable loss and not a net loss at all.. if he wins he gets 50k on top of the mound of Fiat he has. My guess atleast. Sure is great to win no matter what the situation. |
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I have a special kind of mind, it is quite simple, but it can calculate monetary probabilities very well. Somebody else may choke on his numbers, or shortcircuit and SHOUT that it is impossible to predict anything with certainty. Sure it is. Still some people win in poker and others don't.
All I can say is online poker is illegal in my US state. Bitcoin Daytrading is not.  |
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Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... But this is btc:-D Btc dont care You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me... How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?- If this price is breached, Goat wins. - If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins. Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date. Why am I not surprised not one 'bull' has taken up this more than fair bet... Bulls? More like 'CCMF' shouting cheerleaders. I would take it if $50,000 was the same % of my net worth as it is for rpietila. Someone might accept it, it's a pretty good bet. tempting... problem is that i'd need to win to afford to lose  That's what shady bookies are for. Don't you watch the movies?  |
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Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... But this is btc:-D Btc dont care You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me... How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?- If this price is breached, Goat wins. - If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins. Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date. 24:00 UTC is a confusing time. Say 23:59 UTC. Also couldn't Goat just buy up to $1163/BTC and then just sell again. Would only lose transaction fees to win $50K. But I suppose you could set up sell orders to stop him from winning the bet. |
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Everybody understands that *if* this maintains itself (or go better) next week will be rising like hell... right?
No. Math says that it takes 10x more everything to make the price rise from 10x higher level. We do not have 10 times more anything, compared to last summer. 5 times we have, so the price is overvalued by a factor of 2, and will go down -50%. I have thousands of lines of research on the subject but nobody reads it anyway so why even post... But this is btc:-D Btc dont care You should be the right person to bet for BTC against me... How about:
- Will Bitstamp surpass its ATH of $1163/BTC in 2 months?- If this price is breached, Goat wins. - If not (until February 13th 24:00 UTC), rpietila wins. Bet amount is $50,000, (odds 1:1) paid in bitcoins at the rate of the settlement date. 24:00 UTC is a confusing time. Say 23:59 UTC. |
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To spice up a little: Is anyone willing to accept a $10,000-$100,000 escrowed bet that Bitstamp will hit $500 before hitting $1,000?
What odds? I am thinking that $1,000 is much more probable but I am willing to take the other side if odds good enough.
Really no one is jumping on this? Why bet on market movement against someone who can move the market? Because it's a win-win situation? (for him) Depends on the odds. But most likely rpietela can calculate them to his advantage. Too much math for me. |
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There's 2 factors I'm looking at: BTC China and the immense market cap that we didn't have in 2012.
My money is in fiat - bearish position. I can't predict the next low, but will keep a close eye on it and make my decisions in real time. My strategy is not to have any long term orders. I usually do 2-3 hours of research before buying or selling.
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Volume at gox is consistently anemic now.
It is. The calm before the storm. I have butterflies in my stomach. I can't stop staring at the price.  |
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Hi all,
Not having a crystal ball, I asked myself "Do you truly believe in the fundamentals behind Bitcoin?" and I could honestly answer "yes".
So I went back and collected all my Bitcoin research and pitched it to my husband. I think it was my enthusiasm (which was probably bordering on reverence by this point) that did it - he agreed to redraw on our home loan. I told him that time was of the essence and if we didn't buy now, it would be too late. This was the night of Wednesday 4th December. The very next day I went and bought 7.7 BTC for $9000. The very NEXT day.... well you all know what happened. I won't deny, the next few days have definitely tested my belief in Bitcoin. But I stuck to my guns and held. I still maintain that one day in the near-ish future, I will tell my sister's grandkids that I once owned 7.7 BTC, and that they be all wide-eyed and gob-smacked "No freakin way!!!!".
Was your dad showing you his cellphone when the price was crashing? Although BTC investments has historically done well I can't for sure say what's going to happen in 10 years. Also I know the bulls will hate me when I say this, but keeping track of crashes and try to figure out why. They are just as important as when the price skyrockets. Maybe you won't sell, but it's important to to understand. Also every single person posting here is pushing their own agenda. |
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Is there a website that shows last trades of 50 BTC or more? Trying to figure out what walls are destroyed and which are removed.
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Do I have to pay taxes? There's no realized gains. Therefore no capital gains. Or am I wrong about that? That's not how it work. You buying bitcoin on Dec 31st is not a loss. It's only a loss when you sell bitcoin for less than you bought it with. I'm not sure I understand what you are proposing. Give me a specific example. You got the BTC for free for example. Sell 10 BTC for $100 USD/BTC and get $1,000. USD/BTC rises to $1000. You buy back 1 BTC for $1000. You'd still have to pay 15% on $1000. Now if BTC drops to $1. Your capital gain tax is the same? Yes, but only if you sell that btc for a dollar. So, you could do this 1) sell 10 BTC for $100, and have a capital gain of $1,000 2) buy 1 BTC for $1,000 3) sell 1 BTC for $1, and have a capital loss of $999 You would only owe taxes on a $1 gain if you did that all within a calendar year. Of course you'd only end up with $1 too so I don't see how this is helpful to you. I think this is starting to make sense now. I have to pay capital gains on Dec 31. Next year if BTC drops to $1 and I sell, then I can declare a capital loss and get it all back. And there's no limit right? Basically if you sell 367-day-old BTC and rebuy new BTC repeatedly at the same price a few times a year, you have to pay taxes right away on gains. If you buy and hold, then sell all at once, you can pay capital gains later. But the capital gains tax remains more or less the same with some extra transaction fees. |
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Do I have to pay taxes? There's no realized gains. Therefore no capital gains. Or am I wrong about that? That's not how it work. You buying bitcoin on Dec 31st is not a loss. It's only a loss when you sell bitcoin for less than you bought it with. I'm not sure I understand what you are proposing. Give me a specific example. You got the BTC for free for example. Sell 10 BTC for $100 USD/BTC and get $1,000. USD/BTC rises to $1000. You buy back 1 BTC for $1000. You'd still have to pay 15% on $1000. Now if BTC drops to $1. Your capital gain tax is the same? |
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If what you are describing is shorting BTC on Jan 1 and then buying back on Dec 31, then you will report capital losses ($3000 max per year with future year carryovers). Go to form 8949, input basis price as the Dec 31 price, sales price as Jan 1 price, and indicate short sale. Let me know if you understand how to do this or require further help. http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/i1040sd.pdfpage D-5 Nope. Sorry. Just buying and selling no shorts. But since there's no more $$$ on Dec 31, do I still have to pay capital gains? |
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Stamp and China breaking out of their sideways channels.  Stupid question probably. But where do I get this chart? |
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I dunno. Unrealized losses of $1000+ per coin? I should not have to pay taxes again. But anyone who has a clue about taxes chime in? |
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Do I have to pay taxes? There's no realized gains. Therefore no capital gains. Or am I wrong about that? |
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Support got back to me. I need to press my Yubikey for a short time not a long time. Yupz it's been so long apparently I've forgotten how to login. Mtgox - 1, Me - 0. |
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Thanks. Well I'm sure they're being inundated by support requests. I'd just like to know what my average wait time is. Anxious to get back to trading (and making Mtgox some money.) |
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It was there as early as Jan 2012 apparently. "We also reserve the right to cancel unconfirmed Accounts or Accounts that have been inactive for a period of 6 months or more, or to modify or discontinue our Site or Platform. Members agree that Mt. Gox will not be liable to them or to any third party for termination of their Account or access to the Site." https://www.mtgox.com/terms_of_serviceWould be nice of they set some emails to warn you at the 3 month and 5 month and day before. But I don't have a record of any emails. I'm kind of surprised there aren't more topics about this. But maybe I just used the search function incorrectly or I'm the only guy who suddenly wants to trade again now. |
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Anyone know how to speed up the process of getting their Mtgox account unlocked? I opened up a Help ticket and it's been 2 days now.
Thanks.
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