Chill with the massive quote trains guys. Takes 5 seconds to pare that shit down.
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I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.
1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC. If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%? That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price. If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013. As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy. This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared. I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes. How about we stop talking about those fakers ? China , really? I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades. I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently. And you went long? right? It's a trade. |
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LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 0%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 0%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 15%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 99%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 99%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 98%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 95%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 85%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 70%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 40%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 25%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 8%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 2%
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
How can you say there is 0% chance of below 200? That is ridiculous. There is no such thing as 0% chance. What if tomorrow, 1. U.S. bans bitcoin 2. A flaw is found in the code 3. EC or SHA256 is broken 4. The existing exchanges shut down due to fraud or seizure. 5. Someone randomly decides to dump 30KBTC at market on bitstamp. 6. The economy melts down |
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I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.
1200 seemed totally crazy and exaggarated in early 2013 when a coin was at 10$/BTC. If BTC enters a rally, and that is only a question of time, do you really think it will just surpass the previous ATH by a measly 25%? That's like the last rally ending at 332$ gox price. If btc starts rallying, it is like a russian locomotive, it won't stop, there's just too much momentum, too much euphoria, hype, it will keep going and going and going. So 5k/BTC is in no way exaggarated. Perhaps even way less exaggarated than predicting 1200$ ATH in early 2013. As I said before, last year people were more confident. Gox pumped the price with a bot, Chinese market looked healthy. This year it's a bit different, a lot of FUD, people seem nervous, overreacting and dumping cluelessly. A large number of investors lost money on Gox, some just backed away from planned investments hearing that so much money disappeared. I don't think we'll see last year's growth again, at least until the Gox case gets closed and/or China's policy changes. How about we stop talking about those fakers ? China , really? I just hope that chinese police storms houbi and okcoin headquarters so all the world finds out they only have 100 btc and 1000 monkeys doing fake volume trades. I agree and like I said, the Chinese situation will ultimately have little effect on the downtrend one way or the other. The downtrend is in force because there are not enough buyers on stamp etc. to support these levels and that will only change once the volume of buyers increases consistently. |
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I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past. Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102.
3? btce bitfinex mtgox |
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a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 20%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 30%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 50%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 30%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 25%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 20%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 15%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 5%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 4%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 3%
do d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70% e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70% are most possible in this case. Yes  hehe there was already below 400 in 2014 - correct Above 500 was already done too - correct. What are another options? f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40% It was during whole January. Another: g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35% And this is what I am waiting for  I bet it will happen until 1st May 2014. Mark my words - I will check all my predictions later and we will see how many % were correct :p I was assuming that the whole purpose of this poll was that it was about the future and not in the past. Otherwise I would have made a snide remark about how 3 exchanges already visited $102. |
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I'm looking at your predictions and most of you guys are overly optimistic. You give 5-10% to a BTC price above $7000 :O I consider myself an optimist and a bull and I think we'll see a new high this year, but that would be ~$1500. If you think we can reach $5k or more this year you're dreaming.
its really odd, that you can't stretch your mind around the fact that that kind of growth happened in 2013 already..and with the right circumstances could occur again.. but I'd think tops 4-5k My perspective is that the increase in 2013 is the REASON we can't have much increase in 2014. 2013 was a rally year and 2014 is a consolidation year from the 2013 rallying which maxed out into extremely overbought territory. |
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a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = 20%
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 30%
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 50%
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 70%
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 70%
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 40%
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 35%
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 30%
i) In 2014, price will visit above 2000 = 25%
j) In 2014, price will visit above 3000 = 20%
k) In 2014, price will visit above 4000 = 15%
l) In 2014, price will visit above 5000 = 5%
m) In 2014, price will visit above 7000 = 4%
n) In 2014, price will visit above 10000 = 3%
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This new run up to $1,000 is going to happen real freaking fast. At what price are you going to get in?
$600 is an upwards stoploss. $200 is a downwards target. |
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Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".
Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425. You do just what the other bears do around here. If you see the smallest price bump you shout that you're closing you're short and go long but expect it to be only temporarily while you keep shouting down down down. You've done it so many times that it's just doesn't count anymore. The only reason I even talk about my trades is because people constantly accuse me of talking my book, being in a position I'm not in, or being a bad trader. Otherwise, I wouldn't even bring them up. |
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Tera must feel so bad that he's forced to buy in with a loss. As always.
So what's left for him to do?
"Bitcoin sinking ship blah blah never can sell this high again cry mweeeh we're going down yadiya".
Have you even been following my trades? I covered my short at $340-$360 and went long at $425. |
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Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.
Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.
So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...
That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.
Have you, or have you not, considered that crypto is better than fiat, and is therefore replacing fiat like Internet replaced so many things? All your talk is nullified when you consider this matter for even a short while. There is a limited number of bitcoins, and if you get them cheaper, it is good for you. Of course if all your trades that you claim were real, that is good for you too. Sadly I don't believe it, because you only claim them afterwards, and when looking at your actual predictions, they are ambiguous and wrong. See my post a few pages ago. I am actually not so bullish about bitcoin that I think it will succeed as a replacement for fiat. |
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Basically the current trend is a sinking ship. Ever since DECEMBER when the chinese millionaires who were trading on btcchina found out there was some problem with bitcoin and they ditched for good, never to return. What did return was some lower class traders and a bunch of fake volume on this new exchange called Huobi to make things look the same but they really weren't.
Even if Huobi doesn't get closed the larger trend will still continue after people realize that the volume was fake anyway. It may appear that the Chinese news effects the markets, but this is all sentiment based, causing alternating waves of boom/bust and hype/despair - a cycle within a larger downtrend. Nothing that happens in China will even affect the larger downtrend. China is all a mirage, and the downtrend was incepted in December.
So it's been doomed since then to have this slow and controlled bubble deflation. Now just look at the volume and the orderbooks on Bitstamp and btce - it is nowhere near enough to support a market of this size. So we are just on this endless slow slide down till the volume is regained - probably around $180. Long slow bleed to $180 is the current trend. The CURRENT trend...
That is of course, unless something intervenes. If new trustworthy markets opened and gain volume, then the trend will be reversed more quickly, and the target will be much higher.
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball. I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her. So what kind of odds are you giving it? I do NOT claim to know too much about BTC in the short-term, but I am investing for the long term, and I was thinking at least two years, but I was fairly certain that we would know within this year whether BTC is going up or NOT. You can even pick a larger number and predict that BTC will stay below $500 for at least half of the next year (or some other quantity). I am sure you would get bets on such a bearish prediction. Personally, I have NO real idea, and I do NOT claim to have any real predictive capabilities (even though I spout them out here and there and within this thread b/c I am saying what I am thinking and putting my money on such thoughts, unless someone causes me to rethink my strategy). In that regard, I would imagine in the next 365 days that we are more likely to see more days above $500 for that period rather than below $500 for that period. That would be a pretty interesting bet, and if if the bet were 50/50 odds, I may take it for some small amount. I do NOT have enough foresight to know for sure, but I am sure that if you wanted to take such a bet, there would be plenty of posters in this thread that would be willing to bet you on that specific kind of prediction (maybe adjust the numbers a little bit to suit predictive values and what odds or any other details). I didn't claim to predict that either. I just said that it was possible, and I was basing solely on a 2011 chart. However, that's a very crude way to make a prediction. It all depends what events unfold in this time, especially those involving the opening and closing of exchanges. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
talking bout $ ? talking about BTC or m BTC ? =))) I love people who say what will future bring. They are like a prophet :-)  |
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[snip]
Everything your saying has been said since $1 hence why its boring. Read some of the old posts on this forum and see how your whining (about too much volatilty, high hopes, dump pumps, no real reason for the price etc etc ) is a complete regurgitation of things said before. I wish you well but your wrong on so many counts. I have no doubt that once the price returns to previous ATH levels you will either turn uber bull or disapear off the forum as per usual. I'm not trying to be original here. When I'm pointing out the faults that others have done before me, then it only means that these faults are not hard to see. But some still choose to ignore them. At first, we have to see the bottom and then start about talking reaching the previous ATH again. Or do you think that this was the bottom and now we are going only up to the previous ATH?You chose to ignore them, you bought in didnt you, what makes you any better than anyone else. Yeah and I bet the guys saying it from $1 are kicking themselves about the wealth they could have secured for themselves. Who knows, $340 is as good of a bottom as any. Or do you think that this is a bull trap and were only going down to previous YTL? There's always a chance $340 was bottom, but it's going to have to be double tested. The stoch RSI is too high and volume too low to reverse up here. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
It is also possible that these next couple of days could be the last chance to buy below $460 for a year. Both are possible. Seems very likely that we are going to see a lot of days in the next year over $460.. maybe even 350 or more of them? I don't have a crystal ball. I know someone who actually has a crystal ball who I asked about Bitcoin and I still trust my TA more than her. |
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
Why do you think that, do you think China is going to ban hammer and all the buyers are going to disappear...dont just make position comments with the gravity of a year long bear market and not expect to have to field some questions. I'm basing only on the trend in 2011/2012 |
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Stamp has hit my 30K volume target.
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It's possible that these next couple days will be the last chance to sell above 460 for a year.
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