It's going to be fun to watch then support at 440$ will be broken.  |
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oda.krell getting weaned from another bitcoin myth, besides the ones in rpietila's quality delusional TA thread.  For Wall street fiat to pump the next mania phase of a bitcoin bubble, they'd have to be sure there are enough potential bagholders to buy close to the top of the bubble. Which means lots of good press on bitcoin, to entice new suckers to buy at ~5,000$. Possible, but IMO not soon. |
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Imagine that a gold exchange has got only two customers, George who deposited a chunk of gold worth 990'000 dollars, and Dick who deposited only 10'000 dollars, at the same time. The same day the exchange goes bankrupt, and the liquidator finds only 5'000 dollars worth of gold and 5'000 dollars in cash, that is, 1% of what it was supposed to have. How will they be split?
If the liquidator were to compute gold and dollar claims separately, Dick would get all the 5'000 dollars (50% of his deposit), while George would get all the gold (about 0.5% of his deposit).
That is why I think that the MtGOX liquidator must convert all claims to yen, so that he can establish the ONE fraction of the assets that each customer should get. EDIT: Not for moral reasons, but to avoid legal claims of unfair division of the spoils.
In the example above, George's claim would be 99% of total claims while Dick's would be 1%, so they would get 9'900$ and 100$, respectively (for both, 1% of their deposit).
Once the MtGOX liquidator has established the fractions, he may let each client choose whether he wants to get his slice of the total assets as BTC or as yen. But, even in this case, he will have to compute the total worth of the assets using the current JPY/BTC price, irrespective of the criterion used to compute the claim values. But then he will have to administer the conflict between the disparate wishes and the amount of BTC actually remaining.
In the example above, what should the liquidator do if George wanted to get his part in cash (as the law entitles him to) and Dick asked to have his in gold?
I suspect that he will choose to auction the BTC and divide the yen, to avoid that messy situation.
That's why it's important to know when that auction will be. If a 30k BTC auction (Silk Road 1) triggered a significant price drop, the auctioning of 100k - 200k BTC is going to do significant damage to the price. |
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The 535 (534 to be correct) happened on August 21st.
I thought that the bulls will be able to test something higher, but they seem weak, and time is running out for them.
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Those bids that look apparently bullish come from the squeezed longs. They are waiting to buy at lower prices.
Bitfinex may be now the best choice for big dumpers.
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Sometimes it's difficult to see the forest because of the trees. Here is my favorite wave C count:  |
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'Buttcoin is a peer-to-peer butt. Peer-to-peer means that no central authority issues new butts or tracks butts. These tasks are managed collectively by the network. Its like a bitcoin, but with butts instead.'
I thought this was fixed once. Why is it still going on?
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I wonder if support at 440$ will hold for now, or the dumpers will cut through it like a hot knife through butter. My guesstimated bottom for this round of drops is about 360$, but it will take some time to get there. 440$ held back then, but now the asks on Bitstamp are a bit higher than in April, when price dropped to 340$. |
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we need a new poll we 500 just isnt going to happen in ~32 hours left, simply impossible.
I suggest: ' Is support at 442$ going to hold?'. And I'd vote no. I believe that the poll I suggested would have been more useful. |
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Market moves 4 - 5 times slower than in 2013. Back then it took 4 - 5 months from the bottom to the mania phase.
It looks like the next bubble will enter it's mania phase 16 - 25 months after the bottom (which IMO is still to come).
That would align well with the block reward halving in the second half of 2016.
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we need a new poll we 500 just isnt going to happen in ~32 hours left, simply impossible.
I suggest: 'Is support at 442$ going to hold?'. And I'd vote no. |
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Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...
I donīt think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma OLED... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.
Donīt get me wrong, I am a big fan of bitcoin but it has appreciated a lot in a very short time frame. Reminds me of the Nasdaq and the Neuer Markt in 1999-2000. In my view the bubble has not deflated yet. I am a buyer in the high two digit, very low three digit price range, not scared to miss any train. Iīve made my profit and still have a few coins...
Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...
To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.
A small correction, plasma is 2013, OLED is 2014. Panasonic have (unfortunately) stopped making plasmas. While I agree that early adopters spending BTC does depress the price, I am not convinced that it is significant now. It may have been significant in February, when they saw the uptrend break. I would like to see some verifiable data that clarifies this, how much BTC spending adds to the miners' selling pressure. It would help understand the long term price evolution. As for capitulation, we are within it since the 5th June, but due to the hodling mentality we haven't dropped much yet. |
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So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low. My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011, simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though. |
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I don't understand why BFX is a bit below Stamp. Since the long squeeze a lot of loaned fiat has reappeared as bids.
On BFX the bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 1200$, while on Stamp only about 300$. I would have expected BFX to be above Stamp somewhat.
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...
If we get to 200, those who currently are bulls won't do much buying. Instead, they'll panic sell every bitcoin in their possession.
Possible. And I'll buy. |
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Let's make a new rule in this thread. Let's don't cheer and bring out rocket/moon photos ever time the price rises $5-10. Mmmkay?
I bet this rule would be dropped if the price rises to 510$. |
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4h MACD suggests no drop soon (dissapointing  ), but moving first towards 500$. After that, we'll see... |
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