USD exchanges have not followed Huobi up all the way and have no volume. I wonder if the rally on Huobi is due to people leaving to get out before banking is frozen and they think it's already too late/risky to submit a withdrawal when the bank account could be shut down at any time.

IMHO, most of the money from btc sales during this bear market has been withdrawn (or lost) and is not sitting on exchanges waiting to rebuy. This is because:
1. The drop has been fueled by a lack of trust in exchanges.
2. Some people have become bearish about the long term future of bitcoin, and not just the short term trend. Some reasons (not inclusive) : [government bans, regulations, tax laws]
3. Some exchanges have shut down and taken their customers' money with them, so the money is not available to reinvest.
4. The remaining exchanges have had functioning withdrawal methods (unlike gox in the summer).

I think it will go down to 435ish (or not) then up to 530 then down to 380. After this, there may or may not be one more bulltrap before the journey to 265.

Lots of positive news comes out on each of these traps and fails to result in a reversal.

I think of this when there is high volume but not when there is low volume.

The 1 day MACD is good to trade in on (and out of) but you can't call the reversal on it.

This is just a weak pushback and dead cat bounce from the 400 support level. Will bounce to $540 max. Anyone who thinks this is the actual reversal is being deluded and drinking some koolaid from bobby lee about how everything is ok in China. Wait until at least a 3 day MACD cross to start calling a reversal.

The reversal has been confirmed based on some type of triangle breakout on low volume for the 25th time since january. What is new?

This forum is a bad place to post a bearish thread. It's all permabulls and they're going to come up with any argument just to slaughter you. It's like you're inside of a rodeo.

Oh wow look at the video from Dec 9 - this will surely move the price, now that it's posted on a speculation thread.

I am having trouble imaging any other scenario that could have possibly occured, even if there was an imminent shutdown of Huobi which they knew about. What do you think they are going to say?

"No sorry. Although we haven't posted about it, I'm going to let you on in a little secret. You need to start withdrawing your money/coins and stop using our exchange right away. We don't want your business anymore. It is not safe, and the funds could be gone next week. Please don't tell anyone else I said this".

No.

This is the official soundtrack for a crypto rally:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KF32DRg9opA

I don't know why people waste their time in here analyzing every price movement when the 4 hour trend is opposite of the 1 day trend. This is a consolidation. This is your chance to take a break and go outside. Once it's resolved and the 4 hour trend is the same as the 1 day trend, then you can begin trading again.

I saw a psychic today and was told July was when everything would start falling apart due to excessive regulation and the remaining exchanges stealing their customers' funds like gox did.

It is possible that your horoscope was referring to a different venture besides bitcoin.

Unless huobi closes tomorrow, I am not expecting a new low out of this. The short term trend is just too weak now. I expect one or two small waves down with higher lows and then a breakout into $500s once the 1D MACD is crossed, like this:

When a price breaks out of a consolidation only to immediately meet resistance and does a lot of volume while only making a small rise relative to the previous rise, it is likely to be fake and reverse. At the time of my post, it had fallen all the way back down to the breakout point so I thought that was the reversal, though my timing was a bit off and I should have waited till it actually fell lower than the breakout point to speak.  Also, this is a likely failure point because price is running into emas on the 4 hour and 1 day chart which shouldn't be breached until the 1D MACD is crossed.