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1901  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 11, 2013, 03:15:13 AM
^ a short term uptick was necessary and expected...before resuming the overall medium term downward trend...the pattern remains: lower highs and lower lows...that pattern has not been broken yet....

How can you say that after checking out the 12 hour chart, such as below:

http://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/mtgox/btcusd

We have just seen the biggest move up for 2 months. A new pattern is emerging. At some point reversals have to happen, unless it is in terminal decline. I remember watching the Enron share price in late '01 (didn't have any, fortunately) and it just kept going down and down. When it hit $8 the Bloomberg guys were having a fit saying that it must turn around soon. It didn't, the company collapsed and it went to zero. Unless Bitcoin is in terminal decline we will not see a permanent downtrend. In fact the last four years has shown it is the ultimate financial instrument on the planet. I think it will remain so, based on remarkable fundamentals, and so do many other people.

Enron. NOT Bitcoin chart:

1902  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 11, 2013, 02:52:23 AM
Price is falling. Thinking of moving my bids up from $60 to $80.

Probably wise unless you are prepared to wait out the next peak/trough which may still not get near $60. IMHO even $65 is unlikely again.
One strategy is to ladder orders, say $73 to $82 with 1/10th size at each $1 increment. If the lowest ones don't get hit then repeat the process at the next retrace down.
1903  Other / Politics & Society / Re: "Dollar headed for 'multi-year rally' " on: July 11, 2013, 01:04:11 AM
Don't know about multi-year rally, but the USD has just been spanked black and blue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-10/currencies-go-berserk-bernanke-kills-king-dollar

Interesting that BTC spikes sharply up too. Perhaps it is indeed becoming more integrated with the world's financial markets as time goes on.
1904  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 10, 2013, 09:34:53 PM
And now the panic buying begins.  Grin

Yes. Sell orders at $89 for those who prefer to sell before all the red candles appear. Of course it is scarier that way!

1905  Bitcoin / Development & Technical Discussion / Re: proposal: delete blocks older than 1000 on: July 10, 2013, 09:26:48 PM
I propose deleting all but the last 1000 blocks. this will keep the blockchain small and lean. as blocks build upon each other, older blocks are not needed. The only problem with this is if  there is a 1001 block chain fork which shoudl not happen.

Learn more about how a system works before you start guessing at ways to "improve" it.  Otherwise, your guesses aren't likely to make very much sense.

I propose reducing the energy released in a fission reaction.  This will keep the temperature of the reaction down, and make nuclear energy far safer.  The only problem is if there isn't enough energy released to be cost effective.

Agreed. I also propose redesigning 3-stage rockets so that the top two stages carry payload and only the bottom stage carries fuel. That way twice as much could be carried into orbit for half the fuel. I am surprised it wasn't done like that for the manned space program.
1906  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Block chain size/storage and slow downloads for new users on: July 10, 2013, 11:40:45 AM
Thanks Mike for the posting this info about SPV. Great work indeed.

Coincidentally, I have known Ralph Merkle for a long time and also listened to his talks about nanotechnology. But I did not realize that he also devised the Merkle tree which Satoshi used.  Just think that he is not only at the forefront of the next revolution in manufacturing, but also has an influence in the next revolution in finance. What an amazing guy!
1907  Other / Off-topic / Re: Let's Count to 21 Million with Images on: July 10, 2013, 11:23:56 AM
1908  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin will be overtaken by other alt coins on: July 10, 2013, 07:29:58 AM
It is bad and only 50 bitcoin nerds propaganda has many people thinking deflation is good.

I'm going to frame that and put it on the wall!  Smiley
1909  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 10, 2013, 07:28:44 AM
Building a launchpad at $77. Next stop $90  Smiley
1910  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin will be overtaken by other alt coins on: July 10, 2013, 06:07:14 AM
Inflation boosts spending.

Inflation forces people to spend before they are ready to, causing a mis-allocation in production. It is bad and only 50 years of CB propaganda has many people thinking inflation is good.
1911  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Why Bitcoin will be overtaken by other alt coins on: July 10, 2013, 06:00:46 AM
Have you been smoking too much?

All your points are incorrect in one form or another. Suggest you read the wiki instead and revise your concerns https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses
1912  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: July 10, 2013, 05:45:42 AM
Didn't they claim to have processed over a million dollars in withdrawals over the "two week" break? Odd that there have been zero posts here saying they received USD over that period.

They may be prioritizing wires based on account or wire size rather than chronological order.

Yes. I believe that they give platinum service to their whale customers before anyone else:

Loaded, are you getting any vibes about whether the Dwolla problem is scaring fiat off Mt Gox, or no real impact?

I have received over $250k in wires from Gox since the Dwolla account seizure with no issues. Hopefully they will obtain the proper licensing and have it all resolved soon.

That was 7 weeks ago...
1913  Economy / Speculation / Re: Thank you to all the Terrified BTC Sellers! on: July 10, 2013, 05:13:58 AM
People ask why the price of Bitcoin is dropping... and it's because people are selling at low prices! Not a smart move.

Haven't you all heard the phrase "Buy low, sell high" before?

No. No. No. That's far too scary. Much better to see loads of red candle waterfalls to be sure it is going down - and then sell, and wait for loads of green candle haystacks to confirm that it is time to buy, and then buy.

Finally, if somehow, miraculously, your buys are lower than your sells, then you are making profits!  Smiley easy!
1914  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: Will the state find a way to sabotage Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust? on: July 10, 2013, 02:58:03 AM
If the Winklevoss ETF doesn't come out int the USA, a different one will come out somewhere else eventually.  It's inevitable.

There is at least one European-listed ETF effort I'm aware of, which already has a few million USD in the kitty and was looking for additional investors at the London event.

If the USA wishes to keep shooting itself in the foot via excessive regulation of the Bitcoin space, so be it.  The rest of the world will take up the slack.


Yes. London will list any ETF for a global product, which US rejects, as fast as a kid grabbing chocolate.
1915  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 09, 2013, 10:01:52 AM
Well , in term of number of transactions , we're back to 2012 ... cimpochi to the rescue?

Not surprising.
More anecdotes:
At these exchange rates, folks are not spending them and so almost all my orders are USD.
The BTC buys less silver now than they used to.  Had a lot of orders when BTC was >110, more than I could take and clear so I had to limit the BTC sales.  Now it is all USD.

The latest Bitcoin software v0.8.3 disincentivizes the number of micro-transactions. This stat is likely influenced by that change.
1916  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 08, 2013, 06:21:52 AM





it's the old elephant trunk pattern

Ready to blast a fountain twice as high as its back!
1917  Bitcoin / Press / Re: 2013-07-06 - The Guardian - And how would you like to pay, sir – cash, credit ca on: July 08, 2013, 06:12:37 AM
If Iceland did adopt Bitcoin (once scalability and a fast-confirm problems were resolved!) and get rid of their useless krone, then this country could become one of the richest in the world - if cryptocurrency replaces fiat in the long-run.  Seeing how crypto works and fiat is being destroyed by CBs. This is a no-brainer.

All the Icelandic population would have BTC and be like the Microsoft employees who all became millionaires after that company floated. Timing is everything, and that would be a hell of a good decision timing-wise.
1918  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 08, 2013, 03:20:38 AM
20k BTC up to $85 but only 6k down to $72. Pullback seems likely here.
1919  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 08, 2013, 02:04:41 AM
I believe they are hoping to push the price in the direction they want enough to trigger other bots into buying or selling based on the market movement.

If they can get the fast ema to cross over the slow ema (for a simple example) they can likely trigger a bunch of less sophisticated bots into making a move.


Plus....a lot of newbies just put in market orders without looking at the order book intelligently.


They are probably there by someone who has got to the "magic" 0.25% comm rate and can make a steady profit by taking the spread all day as his 0.01s are constantly lifted on either side. During the down-wave they looked to be on both sides most of the time.
1920  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: July 08, 2013, 01:54:52 AM
The last time I remember to observe many smallish orders of the same kind was during a larger dump and they were on the selling side.

But how does micro-orders on the bid manipulate the price up?
Consider. If they get hit - what color will all the prints be...
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