Where can I trade Fire Coin / BTC?

Bitcoin price is almost entirely driven by speculators. Whenever there is a sudden increase in the amount of speculators (via the news/hype cycle or new exchanges in foreign countries) or an increase in the money flow pipeline (via new exchanges and payment methods) so that speculators can bring more of their money into bitcoin, the price increases.

Rapid drops occur when new speculators and new money is entering at such a high rate that it causes a bubble which reaches a critical mass and then bursts. Drops also occur when market sectors (china, russia) and exchanges (mtgox) LEAVE the system or when the fundamentals of bitcoin are threatened.

I'm tired of all this talk about 'investments'. Bitcoin's value is supposed to come from people using it with some type of decentralized currency model. It's not a stock. It doesn't really even need any of this 'infrastructure', theoretically, if people actually used it is a decentralized currency in a complete bitcoin ecnomy. The fact that people insist on pegging btc to fiat and conducting all their business with fiat is the reason why btc needs all this infrastructure and is also the reason why btc isn't very popular and doesn't have a higher value.

All the previous reversal days were on 100-140K volume on stamp and that was WITH the help of all of the chinese exchanges and/or mtgox.

Here's what the 'floor' looked like, last time we had a REAL 'final capitulation', which involved a supercycle and a 1W EMA downcross. Notice the famous 'titty pattern' of a double bottom both with very high volume and the second bottom actually has larger volume than the first bottom.

I don't think using forum sentiment is a good way to go since now Bitcoin is much bigger than this forum and there are huge forces in play such as the china situation which just evolved over these past weeks.

This is nothing like 'last wave' - the pattern has clearly diverged.

Risto is not always right. He said he was certain we were not going below $500 again.

Plot twist: Huobi and btcchina add offshore CNY bank accounts, causing a rally to 560. Weeks later, the owners get arrested, the exchanges get shut down, and the crash resumes and breaks 400.

quick someone cook up some 'hot news' so we can have an epic bulltrap for me to short.

I didn't like the way I entered that trade preemptively with a limit order, and I thought if I covered, I would be able to retake the position at the same price or better when the 4 hour MACD went down. Unfortunately, news messed this up.

How could it possibly be the end when the largest Chinese exchanges are still accepting CNY? (only a couple small ones have shut it down)

You shouldn't be scared to be taking shorts in a downtrend. Just make sure you're using a proper strategy to take your positions and to stop-loss if the trend actually reverses.

The trend is down on so many time scales now that I am no longer placing buy orders for long positions at all. I am only placing orders to take short positions when there is a spike upwards.  The only time I long now is when there is high volume and I am very confident about the wave that I am playing. I also long if the 1 day macd does up.

However pre-China was 6 months ago and since then, there has been some kind of exponential growth in the intrinsic value of bitcoin and its adoption.

Just trade with the trend and don't try to call exact bottoms or exact tops - or you will get killed eventually.

Support levels will probably line up with corrections from the rally. So first 270, and if that doesn't hold then 170 a month later, then 145, etc. - not right to 100.

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

Can you guys stop feeling entitled to a rally every 9 months and accept for once that bitcoin is in a downtrend and stop calling everything FUD? It's getting old and doesn't help anything.

When I first drew a chart like this, I thought I was making a joke. However, then as more months went by and bitcoin never recovered into another rally and instead kept having more drops, on lower and lower volume, with the 1W EMAs turning down, it became apparent to me that this chart might actually be a possibility.

It's impossible for it to be "priced in"
1. There's still a chance it doesn't actually happen ,and it hadn't actually happened yet. Action is louder than words.
2. Chinese are still buying bitcoins.
3. Chinese are still holding bitcoins.
4. Chinese exchange operators are still trying to say everything is ok and that they will try to continue to operate as much as possible.
5. There are still people calling it "FUD".

It's very hard to price in the effect of something that will radically change supply and demand. For example, the halvings on bitcoin and altcoins never seem to priced in properly and end up causing a dramatic change.

What if... bitcoin is actually not what people think of at all when they are in a crisis situation,  especially not when it's in a downtrend.