I just didn’t know about it myself, but that was my stupid mistake, not theirs. Why should they get blamed if I don’t read the rules? Anyways, like I said, that was nice of them.
Ok. So you unknowingly broke a rule that they've punished other people for doing so, but you fortunately got a free pass (probably because they calculated the life time value of having you as a customer is greater than the amount of your withdrawal). But I'm just going to project here a little, and I suspect if had been like one of the other guys who lost 3.45 (like the OP) and 20 (?) bitcoin due to the very same mistake you wouldn't be so happy. Anyway, obviously they don't screw over /all/ their players, that just wouldn't make business sense. It's probably pretty safe to assume for every 1 customer they royally screw, there's another 10,000 they don't. But that doesn't make it ok. You don't get brownie points for doing the right thing. -- (And for everyone, I apologize for keep beating this horse, as they've already said they're finally going to fix the problem, which is fantastic. I just find it mind blowing that anyone could defend what is obviously highly predatory behavior and selective enforcement) LOL @ highly predatory behavior. The casino is giving the player bonus funds. They can set whatever terms they want on it. Its the player that chose to take the bonus and thereby responsible for knowing the rules of the bonus. If a player chooses he can simply NOT take a bonus and alleviate any problems when it comes time to cashout. Is that to hard to understand? No, but at the same time, the player has some rights on his money. The behavior was obviously predatory, although there are other casinos with similar predatory terms, none actually enforce them like they did. Some terms are expected to be enforced only when necessary to prevent abuse or fraud. |
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Thank you for exposing your concerns!
On the first part, we do hope to never be forced to enforce the rule. However, it's a common safeguard to protect us against abusers such as persons that could potentially have a direct implication with certain sport events. It is extremely unlikely that we'll ever have to force a regular player to provide identification.
For the second part, a player joining us now would have to worry sometimes in 2019 provided he deposited but didn't use the funds to place any bets for 30 months. Really curious what bothered you with this rule?
The terms are okay as long as you guys don't enforce it like Bitstarz. |
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Is there anything else in a transaction I can let players guess and there's no possible or easy way for them to cheat?
The last character of the block hash in which the transaction gets included? |
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Correct me if I am wrong, but the current investment ROI does not indicate what the future ROI will be at all, as the future bets are independent from the historical bets, isn't it? Shouldn't you look at the recent site wagered * house edge / total BR to have a better estimate of the expected ROI?
Yeah. But past ROI is nevertheless indicative that I am not picking sites at random.  Using past ROI is much the same as picking sites at random. You need to look at the expected future ROI not the past. theoretical EV is not indicative of actual EV.  Theoretical EV is the same as the actual EV. EV is a theoretical concept. True. I meant I base future ROI on past wagered amounts. By actual EV I meant actual ROI. Sorry lol. How can you claim you know of the best and top 5 ROI investments ? Why do you have to say things like that ? It can't be true since there will always be a better investment elsewhere that you just don't know about or never had an opportunity in.
At the time of writing OP, I was actively looking up investment opportunities and finding the most profitable ones. Coinmillions, for example, was very profitable in the beginning before the total bankroll went up. (iirc sold and integrated with Moneypot) I don't get it. Just a few questions: Assuming the sites are fair, wouldn't the best possible EV, for investment purposes, be on those sites which have the highest possible house edge? And, wouldn't ROI be determined by those sites which have the highest possible traffic? Are those factors also considered in these investment opportunities? Also, has the Kelly criterion been audited in the sites under consideration as a risk aversion measure?
Yeah sort of like, ignoring kelly: Your investment / Total investment * Share of investors in profit * Expected amount wagered * House edge So wouldn't it be the same as just investing by your self?
Not really. I guess, I know 3 out of 4...  Just-Dice, BitDice & MoneyPot ...No?  Nope. I am not actually interested in this now. Closed. |
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you haven't posted lately.
How is everything going ?
I would be interested in investing with you
Maybe he lost interest or got busy with other projects? At any rate im sure we will see an update soon. You can also pm him and ask if hes still looking for investors Yep. Literally forgot about this. |
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You assume theymos a mere mortal I have a serious question , what if Theymos die...... What will happen to this forum. I have read a lot from the history of this forum , especially the donate topic, I found out Theymos has paid a lot time and energe to this forum. He is the master of this forum. but , uhmmm....of course he is healthy now, what if he dies with accidence. Will the hosting going on? Will the forum being mixed or out of control? It is a centralised forum, based on Theymos' healthy? |
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IMO it is right for Lutpin to start a scam accusation against someone who copied his work just like that, and it is right for girlbtc.com to understand that is not acceptable and fix it. OP may consider revising the trust feedback on girlbtc.com now that she (or he) has realized and corrected this. Forgiveness is the attribute of the strong. |
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the idea of this game so amazing and the first time in the crypto world but the layout and design looks no interesting so boring maybe you have to change the layout background or colour make it look more professional On other side i am enjoy the game i try it on free game but i always lose maybe i have to learn more and set strategy  Hmm. May I ask, how exactly you were able to try out a few rounds of the game? Did you play with a friend? I went back to the site, see if anything changed,if I could play. Made me wonder how one is supposed to report a bug with the game itself if one couldn't even play. Can't be expected to wait till another player to comes along. Oh well. It's really still in the early stages. But the I really like the idea. I am over here http://boiledbrains.com/table/af9c91a6c91bb6da Are the number of moves random? |
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I think probably it is added back to the investors at the time of adding back. So if someone divested, he won't get anything, but if someone invested, he would get a share of the added back amount  Yeah, that's how it sounds like. Actually when I designed the moneypot investment system, what I did was create a repayable log of all the investment/divestment/bet events for in a nightmare situation like this (or software bug) it could be replayed so investors wouldn't have made/lost money from the changes in the bankroll when a fake better (or software bug) was playing. The situation is probably a big mess now, as some investors have lost more than they should've and others made more than they should've. And it's probably pretty likely the ones who unfairly made money have already withdrawn (?) or at the very least, will be unhappy if their balance gets put to the correct amount The log is a pretty good idea. I don't think there are many casinos here that have such a mechanism, probably just Moneypot. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1366689.msg13969066#msg13969066 did they use the log when they removed the duplicate bets, or did they just add or subtract it back to the latest balance pro rata? I assume the latter because it is much easier? So then you cut your losses and you get out, the end. There is no coming back later on to try reclaim imagined profit.
Perhaps a comparison will help: let's say that you have 10 BTC in Poloniex. You hear that Poloniex isn't processing BTC withdrawals, along with panic that they're hacked, and use your BTC to buy a bunch of WaffleCoin and withdraw it. You sell your WaffleCoin on ShapeShift, but now the market's tanked and you end up with 9 BTC. Later that day Poloniex put out a statement apologising for the issues and stating that they're now fixed. Would you insist that they roll the trades back? What about the shorters that took profit from you?
Or what if you invested in a startup, and then when it looked like things were going south you sold your investment at a loss. Two years later the startup is a huge, successful company. Do you insist on taking profit from the growth because you *used to be* an investor?
-snip-
We thought about this, but we decided that it would be too dangerous for us to spend days and weeks trying to build a magical "undo" script, completely wrecking any auditability, and potentially ending up with a screwed up data set at the end.
-snip-
With all respect to the affected investor, he took his $100 loss and walked away. He didn't contact us, he didn't ask for input on how we were going to handle things. He just assumed that it was the end, and he would have been the *only* investor to get out with his money had we not had safeguards and had the attacker been able to actually drain the wallet. What would have happened then?
I disagree with almost all of the examples. You cannot consider all your investors as a single entity. Well, if you can set the investor's balance as would have if this guy didn't make the bets, it will be the best thing to do, especially if the amount added back is of a significant amount to the bankroll. If you cannot, however, well... Anyway, did you make certain you could not add it back in a fairer way? To be honest, I considered investing once I read Looks like they managed to grab the server seed through a leak in the API - we're busy patching it, and will rollback the naughty bets. Thankfully we process every single withdrawal manually, and most of the funds are all locked up in a cold wallet, so no money was lost. It's precisely because of the very high risk of an exploit that we don't let withdrawals process automatically!
(I didn't though) so I can't say the adding back was very fair. Anyone paying attention could guess well in advance what was gonna happen and make a profit. Nevertheless, I've already offered to send $100 to the affected investor, so I'm not sure what more you expect?
That is nice |
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Congratulations to the Winners of our first Wager contest ! 1st. BitYoLo
2nd. Opung
3rd. Samuel T he prize has already been credited to your account!  Confirmed! Thank you |
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So since I can verify he did in fact win my Xmr and I can verify you guys did in fact add his wins back to the bankroll where does the extra Xmr he wins that were originally my investment end up?
I'd be interested in this aswell, how did you determine which investor got which part of the secured funds back once you rolledback the clearly compromised bets? I think probably it is added back to the investors at the time of adding back. So if someone divested, he won't get anything, but if someone invested, he would get a share of the added back amount |
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--Right now, Happy Hour is OFF--
The house edge is 0%. You give 25% bonus |
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OP is refunded. Please confirm. |
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Secondstrade's claim is that the 0.8BTC bet came when the scammer had emptied their hot wallet, and so was paid to him. He also said betting 0.8BTC as the first bet, above max, is suspicious.
That's an excuse I've heard so many times. "The transfer looked suspicious, so we kept the money" Well there are casinos that cheat players and players that cheat sites. I will just take the middle ground. |
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Secondstrade's claim is that the 0.8BTC bet came when the scammer had emptied their hot wallet, and so was paid to him. He also said betting 0.8BTC as the first bet, above max, is suspicious.
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You are not helping. Please post all your transactions with secondstrade txdice.
Not sure if you read the thread or Am I missing something but OP has posted a link to the thread where he has linked to the related transactions that is which links to the address 13VpVj2rp684F2SaZmPc2hr48xYCwhg2jV beloning to one of the wallets of secondstrade.com.Waiting for secondstrade to resolve this.Either pay him or don't pay him but at least have a decency to close the open accusations. I would like all his transactions on txdice. I was actually surprised when Vod added a trust feedback. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1639121.msg16503750#msg16503750I'm not intersted anymore to get that shit money ... i will play durty like eveyone does here no fairness (as always) i will scam and hack more and more money.
Secondstrade.com will get hurt soon and much damage will be done everywhere on the internet .
I'm done! .
Funny. secondstrade lost more than he lost.  |
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Bonus 2x wagering required, No deposit, Dice 50% chance. All-in. Bonus amount withdrawable after completing the requirement. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1 Win Win (25% probability) Balance : 2.6 2 Win Lose (25% probability) Balance : 0.8 3 Lose (50% probability) Balance : 0 EV : 2.6*0.25+0.8*0.25 = 0.85. 1, 0.9, 0.85, ........
We are looking for the average EV and the best possible EV?
(Variance and deposit/no deposit are not relevant.)
Well they are. If I'm doing it right, it there an easy way to calculate Bonus Value with 100x or more? Nope. You would need to know the variance of the game you are playing, just finding that is difficult. Are you referring to Pocketdice? Their cashback is +EV, all the rest is -EV. |
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-snip-
The second one yields 0.9*0.9 and so on...
The formula for the EV after n consecutive plays of the totality of the bonus is: 1*0.9^n (i.e. bonus*(1 - house edge)^n) which obviously tends towards 0 as n grows to infinity.
I don't think this is correct just because it tends towards 0 and it is an easy formula. If I give you 1 BTC and tell you that you have to wager 10 BTC at a 10% house edge, the EV of that bonus is exactly 0, as you calculate above.
To say more than that we will need to know the terms of the bonus.
For example, with some bonuses I am allowed to "cancel" it at any time. But does cancelling a bonus remove the full 1 BTC from my balance, or just the amount I didn't already lose of the bonus?
RHaver should be right. Bonuses mess things up. You could lose bonus before the wagering is completed (so no house edge lost on next bets which takes average EV up). Cancelling gets the balance at deposit minus loss if there is any. In this case there is no deposit so 0. Ok, let's say we're playing on a dice site with a 1% house edge.
We have a bonus balance of 1,000 with the following terms.
We must choose one of three bets to make for an amount between 1 and 1,000
After the first bet - we can not change it. We have to make that same bet over and over and over.
Options
A) 1.01x
B) 2x
C) 750x
(all with 1% HE as seen on just-dice and ignoring any potentially exploitable rounding issues)
There are only two possible outcomes : A) meet the wagering requirement and cash out balance or B) go broke
Let's say in one scenario there was a 10x playthrough, and another with 100x. 750x is the better. Even if there is no bonus. You should read this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=939776.0 (RHaver, dooglus, blockage) |
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Username : samuel
Thank you
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For what it's worth I get:
1x roll over: 0.90 BTC
10x roll over: 0.563 BTC
100x roll over: 0.315 BTC
1000x roll over: 0.196 BTC How did you get this? I think 1000x seems way high, but still curious. Btw, I'm sure I was wrong, but i put my formula into excel and it came out to 97x before our original $100 was worth less than 1 penny. Theoretically even with infinite playthrough, our value would be >0. 1 $100.00 $10.00 $90.00
2 $90.00 $9.00 $81.00
-snip-
We are talking about bonus without any deposit, right? Assuming a 50% win or lose game. Suppose you get a 1 BTC bonus, and you have to wager 1 time, you will lose 10% of that to the house, so the Expected Value of the bonus is 0.9 BTCSuppose you have to wager 2 times, the EV would be 2.6*0.25+0.8*0.25= 0.85 BTC3 times, the EV would be 0.125*3.4+0.125*1.6+0.0625*1.44= 0.715 BTCand so on |
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