Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days.
Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario.
I am not interested in two months into the future. I am mostly interested in 2014 EOY. Think about where the HR can go before rational people stop buying. And where it can go because rational people do not know how many TH/s has been pre-ordered and will be delivered (nor when). The one thing that changes the slope of the curve is the END OF PRE-ORDERS and the first company that starts shipping same day as ordered, changes a lot. Think about what I mean. Alright, I'll say it. Alot of people are going to lose their pre-order money. Why? Because these companies (almost all of them) are acting as if they aren't shipping out .4 Terrahash per device. I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen. I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips. ----------------------- I have yet to see any company acknowledge that they need to start work on large parallelism of their current designs. Not 1 so far.... You'll probably wonder why this matters. The reason why it matters is because most have already reached the lowest nm process they could possibly ever afford. And now, they only have two options. Make design changes (at the chip level) and re-charge all their customers for future chips at the same nm level. Or (the most likely IMO) They will have to figure out a way to change their designed platforms and prices to adapt to massively parallel operation. A person only has so many plugs in their home. That is a limiting factor. There is also the problem of heat dissipation spread out over one room. There is a wall coming in the not so distant future where they are going to have to start thinking outside the box to create power efficiency. If they don't their company is effectively dead. If they aren't thinking about it before their first units come online, then you can pretty much expect that the company will fail at some point when they can't lower their prices due to base hardware costs and miners can't get a decent amount of profit they really desire in the next offerings. |
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Cointerra is taking happy pills and making things look like it is fine and their machines are truly profitable for more than 2 months.
They say this with the full knowledge that the other companies surrounding them are about to ship many thousands of individual units in increments of 400+ GH/s.
Think about that. Stop being a pussy and stop avoiding reality folks. If you think the current curve is steep, wait till later.
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The good news is that ASICs must become cheaper and I think all the large companies behind closed doors know this. They just don't want to acknowledge this in open public view. Otherwise their pre-orders will significantly downsize prematurely.
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Are you placing your pre-order centered on the reality at the time of delivery or centered around a fantasy of the present being applicable to the future where each customer can turn on _significant multiples_ of _A Terrahash_ that then are coming online?
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The only thing I see happening is that CoinTerra is not lowering it's prices. It's set them pretty high.
There was a unanimous opinion that it is set too high and is rediculous. Will some pay it? Yes, then they will lose money to basic math and reality.
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The rest of the miners who want to believe in a pipe dream are crying out loud in public "It can't be so!". The math must be wrong? Bullshit.
You folks just don't want the companies to come to the conclusion that they either need a game plan that accounts for these violent market changes or they will be out of business before they even ship.
What happened to Avalon will happen again, only to multiple companies if they are not prepared. Reality has already rung your doorbell. You can either ignore it (and go out of business) or adapt.
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Yes difficulty reaching >1 trillion is highly likely. I would point out that even with free hardware, $0.10 electricity and <1W per GH the exchange rate would need to be $42,860 per BTC. In other words miners would be paying $42,860 in electricity (or more if they have less efficient rigs) to mine one BTC. Awesome analysis. I do not understand why you bother with the sarcasm. It will be lost on them. No one is going to read the long string that you put up that had thoughtful analysis of where the network could go based on marginal costs and highlighting how the pre-order process effs up rational economic decision making. Stop wasting your typing. Let them use their website models to explain everything to themselves. A great question at HBS in first year finance for modeling "If you model a company growing at 6% per year and USA GDP is growing at 3%, how large that company become over time?" Excel has allowed people with no understanding of compounding to come up with solutions that do not pass the most basic sanity checks. Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days. Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario. |
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BFL is just taking CC processors out of the equation at their business. I see no evidence their account has been suspended. (As of yet)
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Paypal has terminated BFL's account, so it's just going to get harder and harder to obtain a refund.
Source? I wasn't aware of this. When did this happen? It's obvious because they no longer accept Paypal.  I just think that means they stopped taking Paypal.  |
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Paypal has terminated BFL's account, so it's just going to get harder and harder to obtain a refund.
Source? I wasn't aware of this. When did this happen? |
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Keep trying.
You should also ask what their extension is if they do give refunds easily.
So this way, other people following behind you can ask PayPal to transfer them to the right extension.
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I am not saying you should buy this or it is a good deal. For the record you probably shouldn't and I don't think this is a good deal.
Regardless it doesn't make your projection of difficulty breaking 700 million in January and 1.1 trillion by the end of 2014 any less dubious. At some point growth will move from exponential to linear (i.e. + x GH/s per month ).
I completely agree. It has to, there simply aren't that many rich idiots floating around. The question is, at what point will it level off and at what efficiency will you be profitable. Cointerra had an opportunity here to be the far and away clear choice for long term mining. They have effectively missed the boat and I'm admittedly a little bitter about it. What they did was blatantly lie. Or stretch the wording so much that in the real world you would call them scumbag liars. They come out with quotes "that if you like replacing miners every few months go with our competitors". Yet, these fucking morons are priced even worst then their competition and their devices will be even more useless. Their ROI based on their delivery date is insulting, are they really expecting people to pay $16,000 to potentially months later make a $4,000. These guys are just as bad as BFL, it's funny though they think they can get away with it and not be called out on it. They are even grimier than BFL. Cointerra FUCK YOU SCUMYou post pretty much sums up this company. Everyone should read it at least once. |
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most of the mods probably agree with us.
Hey, I can respect that. Don't get me wrong, I get a kick out of the clown show that PG produces every day. I really appreciate that. But even I can see this guy is whipped up into such a fury that thunderbolts are shooting out of his ass like the spirit of zeus smiting down some shit the likes of which we have never seen. If I were Josh I would be laughing so hard at this level of crazy this guy is at i would breaking my sides. Lets make a BFL hate subforum and require everyone to post there. At least then I could ignore that shit or know where to go for true comedy. Right now I have to figure out which threads PG has been posting in. Very inconvenient. He looks like he loves to look up lots of information. Otherwise calm when he is not cursing his muse. You see something which I don't see. <shrug> |
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Wow, and you deleted my reply. Think that proves my point. Your only interested in a big circle jerk where everyone agrees with out.
Here it is again. If you delete me again, I'll simply start a new thread to copy it into.
Quote from: Phinnaeus Gage on July 15, 2013, 08:35:30 AM
8 more days!
PG - This is the dumbest shit you have ever said. Its not even worth suing someone for less then 50k these days. Even that amount is questionable. I doubt it would be worth the time to sue you. I doubt you have any money they could collect on. Saying you would put a broomstick up Josh's ass if he was standing in front of you? Thats practically a terrorist threat.
If you want to put your action where your mouth is, I dare you to put up a $50k escrow, where a registered arbitration company decides who keeps it based on you proving your claims. If your not willing to do that, you should either STFU with your stupid negativity, or be banned from these forums.
The ponit is, you provide nothing new to these forums and only serve to corrupt and add negativity to every single thread you post on. Someone posts anything BFL related, you can be fucking sure PG is there trolling it up.
Your thoughts are fucking clear. No one needs to listen to your stupid fucking rants day after day. You poison this forum with your negativity. How the fucking mods have let you go on this long with no warnings is beyond me. I cant be the only one who thinks you drove your point down into the ground, out the other side of the earth into fucking orbit.
If you keep this shit up adding no constructive discourse to this forum, I'll either make it my personal mission in life to get you banned from this forum or I'll leave this forum in protest for them allowing trolling. I have no problem with you but your seriously acting like a fucking OCD patient in a psyche ward.
Jesus FUCKING CHRIST.
@Therymos Can we please give this guy a warning or a ban or something?
most of the mods probably agree with us. |
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Ooo look, the little trolls are are riled up. Awesome  The waaambulance is busy today! You heard it here first, Judge. The man says it is awesome. I see no signs of emotional or mental distress. This indicates his claims are patently false. Does he write like he is emotionally affected by any of this, Judge? Well, there you go. I would even go as far as to say he is encouraging the engagements and behavior, Judge. |
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From August + 90 days = November 2013 (what a coincidence!) From November + 90 days = February 2014 (Uh Oh. Does anyone see the coincidences?) Whats the story that you folks can infer from this?  |
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If K9 were paid,
He would ask:
What is the ROI like in February 2014?
(Yikes, don't do that!)
That is actually just outside my model. I don't project any further than 6 months ahead. Also, the probability that BFL will actually ship by February is very small given that just 3 days after announcing, they had to delay the product delivery from November 2013 to February 2014. Then, whatever you do, don't ask for information on how do they even know that the samples will prove to be worthwhile. Facts: Tapeout in August 2013. Right? Facts: Low nm parts usually have more layers than high nm parts. Avalon @ 110nm had 29 layers, BFL's 65nm parts had many more. (Each layer takes about 1 day to deposit...hence, the long turn around times)Question: If BFL is using a 28nm part for Gen2, then how many days does it take for the samples to go through various stages of packaging to figure out if they need to make corrections to the first batch? (Clock buffers anyone?) If a 28nm part probably takes 90 days....then is BFL betting on November/December being right the first time? Did they really learn from their mistakes? Does anyone see where I am going with this? |
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Q: Why "Inaba" isn't banned already for scamming people around here for continuous things like "Two more weeks (TM)" and insulting people that are his customers ?
A: Because he's given too much advertising revenue to the forum administrators. Or because truth tellers never get incarcerated. They just plea to a lesser charge and snitch. (<-- epic bait for PG) |
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If K9 were paid,
He would ask:
What is the ROI like in February 2014?
(Yikes, don't do that!)
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What Inaba should say is that the first sample units will be available in November and possibly through December. As they refine the product they will ship en masse through to January and February. Therefore all customers will get their units within this time frame. They should expect an early delivery. (without defining what "early means"  ) --------------------- See? You don't see that class of Bullshit coming out of Inaba. They paid for a rookie, they get a rookie. |
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Notice how Josh/Inaba completely dodges the question...
To be fair, he get's paid to dodge questions. To do otherwise would cause his reality to collapse on itself in a singularity of hubris, arrogance, and ignorance. You should see the type of dodging they do in congress when questioned about a specific matter. Would make Josh look like a sitting duck. |
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Notice how Josh/Inaba completely dodges the question of why they are selling November/December 2013 to their investors when they have already admitted the product will not realistically ship until January of 2014.
He also dodged the question of what changed in the last 3 days that caused a 2 month delay?
Sockpuppets gotta sock?
Actually it looks like it is february. Go look in the other threads. 3 days and already a 3 month delay? Even I never expected the surprise sex to be this swift and this brazen. |
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Notice how Josh/Inaba completely dodges the question of why they are selling November/December 2013 to their investors when they have already admitted the product will not realistically ship until January of 2014.
He also dodged the question of what changed in the last 3 days that caused a 2 month delay?
Sockpuppets gotta sock?
Actually it looks like it is february. Go look in the other threads. |
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