Me thinks this is going to start getting exciting again very soon... once the difficulty skyrockets from everybody jumping on board ASIC mining, combined with the hardcore investors holding through the drop to $50, plus all the new investors that will surely follow... bitcoins will start to become MUCH more scarce than ever before.
Well, long term Bitcoin looks extremely exciting. This is why we are throwing money at it while we enjoy it so much, don't we?  |
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I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.
Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question. Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet. There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings here, at least to a degree. Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts. I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling... I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time. All the fun is in LTC/XRP right now - anticipation of how high they will go. Not how low like in BTC... Hate this but true for the moment! Notice my post about LTC in this thread. I think it is a really valid question and I'd love to hear some responses. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1493.2760Basically, do you want to invest in LTC while BTC is coming down and it seems LTC is more pegged to BTC than it is to the dollar? If today is any indication, then no, though it is a big down day... I watch LTC for a lot of time (since it was 0.007$) and I agree that when BTC/USD falls, LTC/BTC goes up but LTC/USD goes down too. So in times where BTC will probably lose value, like now, it would be wiser to go fiat. On the other hand XRP since 19 April gained value in BTC and USD terms - so I thought that it is an even better alternative than fiat (if BTC drop in general). But lately XRP too loses in dollar terms when BTC goes down... XRP has how many BILLIONS of shares? I don't care, but I am not going to invest in a debt based currency. Been there and done that, all of us have. XRP's benefit, from what I have read and heard, is to help reduce attacks on the network by making it costly. That sounds good, but when fiat money is endless I'm not so sure. When BTC guys can't quite grasp XRP and when most people can't quite grasp BTC, I think it's just safe to stay away from XRP. Excuse me for being a Debby Downer but something about XRP gives me a bad feeling. I for sure would use the network to get in and out of BTC, but it SHOULD NOT BE an investment. That is not it's purpose and if they make it that, question it thoroughly... I have to admit that I have a couple of hundred k's of Cripple's, just as a hedge against my main investment, which is BTC. Also because I really needed to touch it with my hands, extending trust and buying a little "just in case", because while I profoundly dislike the concept I acknowledge its potential as a distributed, p2p version of the actual, flawed but dominant, debt-based financial system. In other words, I hope it fails, but I won't be extremely surprised if it didn't. Back to current price, I missed the last bounce. I had my highest bid at $91ish, didn't got filled, so I pulled it to try to play the future bounce at $88ish. Dangerous games, but you gotta have fun |
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I don't see any cheap coins yet, not even at Bitstamp.
Right, i expected this answer. Because this is the standard answer i get everytime when i ask that question. Bitcoin goes down, people here are extremely happy and scream about cheap coins, you ask them how much they bought, they tell you they're not buying yet. There has been a lot of good advice about the price around here lately. Rampion posted some good information. I was a bit behind him in picking up on it but once I did I posted till no tomorrow the charts and what I saw. I actually called it pretty damn accurately. I just wish I would have gotten out at $130 when I first suspected things and not at $107. Anyway, thanks to Rampion for making me look deeper. One has to separate their feelings here, at least to a degree. Anyway, going forward, we've mentioned the resistance levels. Low 90's first, but I would be very very careful there as the 100 barrier is broken and that is a big psychological thing. Next is around $82, roughly. Then I have $68, $60, low $50's, then $20's. But this isn't in stone. You have to watch the volume and see how the price is affecting things on the charts. I'm super bullish about BTC, like most of us here, but when we see the charts clearly saying down, don't fight the feeling... I'll sacrifice some profit (though BTC isn't really about that primarily for me), in order to be a bit more certain of getting in at the right time. Thank you for your word IAS, I also enjoy your posts and I love your enthusiasm, being a Bitcoin enthusiast myself. It comforts me that you find yourself agreeing with me in some occasions, half of the time I'm just having fun and I realize i border line the trolling, but at the end of the day I'm utterly sincere, I enjoy being very open about my feelings while I learn with the analysis and views of the other members in here. There's some people posting that has a tremendous experience in the market, like Blitz, Adam or Frozenlock (and many more), and while everybody has a different approach, there's a lot to be learnt and enjoyed in the mix of cynical humor, trolling and serious statements that constitute this thread. Coming back to the market, as you say its just stupid to fight against the trend, we are all Bitcoin bulls and that's why we are investing money, time and passion in it, so lets face the facts and play our cards so we end up with more beloved coins and possibly some fiat profits too |
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the pessimists in this thread are hilarious
who are they? Apart from shroomkit, who appears to be bitter and sad, everybody seems happy and playful. |
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People are realizing that they should probably clean up the bids on the order book and gather their fiat millions while the slippage is good.
At last! But it took them long. Funny thing is that most of bulls in denial will eventually sell at the bottom. |
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Care to give us a few examples of this? Ted Nelson very clearly revealed to the world who the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin actually is... in fact, he revealed it at least two dozen times in the video. |
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The OP is from 2 years ago why is this thread even active.... had you listened to this advice 2 yrs ago and sold out you would have lost a ton of cash
Had you listened to this advice 2 years ago and rebought in at 1$ you would have gained a ton of cash. It never went to $1. It went to $1.98, and to buying back at that price was some sheer luck by someone who got his bids placed there |
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I cant believe there is no panic after the walls were eaten.
But a 1.5k wall from 93 just got pulled :/
No panic means that people take this fall as something normal. Which might be even a scarier scenario for the 300k guys  Of course is normal. It's just following the current trend - > down. |
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I quote your page: "this shows an increase of 1111% YoY" I quote myself: "if you plug in that difficulty will increase 20X in the next 12 months, it still shows a (tiny) profit after 10 months" Do you know that a 1111% increase is smaller than a 20X increase? Your page supports my post, it doesn't disprove it. X20? That's nothing, in the last few months (since March) difficulty already went x5 only because of ASICMiner and the few Avalons hashing in the wild. You really think x20 is a lot? It can easily be x35 or x50 if follows the same exponential trend as per the last 2 difficulty adjustments. |
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I've been trying to find out what the refund policy is on pre-orders. I was considering ordering a Saturn, but given ship dates won't be until October, I'd want to cancel the order if the difficulty is looking like it will be too great at that time (90M+)
Does anyone have direct knowledge of how kncminer deals with refund requests on pre-orders?
It was said that they would honor refunds up until the ship date but I can't remember where that was. I just checked their site and couldn't find anything. Bitcoinorama may have brought that back from his visit, I haven't checked that thread. Their refund policy really should be added to the website. Yes they have openly said they will honour refunds, I think they have said this in this thread. It's not been me stating this, although I do know that this is the case. Personally though if you intend to have cold feet and be be flakey I'd prefer you refund sooner, rather than later and muck everyone around. The guys mean well and competitor hashrate is out if their hands. They don't need mice jumping ship. Mice will jump ship if ROI is impossible. That's part of the preorder game. |
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Finally, if you made ROI years ago with CPUs, GPUs, and FPGAs, then ASIC USB sticks are an excellent way to spend some BTC if you choose. They will definitely generate more BTC than a steak dinner.
I fit in this category. I made ROI a *long* time ago with my GPU's and have made a lot of profit off of them. With the price reduction it now doesn't make any sense to buy GPU's. I will buy one of these and run it for as long as I can until it burns out. If that is as long as my GPU's have been running I'm pretty sure I can make my ROI. If something happens and the difficulty drops, like it has in the past, and the price of BTC goes up, I could make a little bit of $$. Hell, when I bought my GPU's I thought it might be 2 years before I could make my ROI, it turned out to be a month. Yes? When that happened and what GPUs did you buy? Please let us know so we can see what the difficulty was during that time, the exchange rate and how many coins you mined in 30 days. |
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Don't think so. Everybody is loading up while waiting for Gox to accept it just Jesus is coming to visit you, so as soon as it hits Gox there will be some serious dumping by people who bought at 0.002 and below. I will dump on btc-e just before it hits Gox.
Did you set yourself a time limit for that? No. I already sold 70% of my LTC holdings between 0.019 and 0.025, and I'm happy with the profit I got. The remaining 30% I keep for the day before it hits Gox, except for a minimum amount (200/300 LTC) that I will hold long term, just because LTC was good to me and you never know what can happen long term. |
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LTC/BTC went x10 since early March, when I bought in. It's a useless clone of Bitcoin, but it was very good to me as a speculative asset. Buying LTC in March was probably one of the best investments I ever did, if I did not buy lite coin now I would have much less BTC, I can guarantee you that.
That said, as soon Gox announces an official and concrete ETA I will dump 90% of my remaining holdings (which are aprox. 30% of the initial amount I had), and I will dump it for good. I will just keep a few hundreds for the lulz.
and u are going to regret that Don't think so. Everybody is loading up while waiting for Gox to accept it like it was Jesus coming to visit you, so as soon as it hits Gox there will be some serious dumping by people who bought at 0.002 and below. I will dump on btc-e just before it hits Gox. |
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LTC is a bullshit, not a silver. It is alive since it eats and utilize mining trash hardware abandoned by bitcoin network evolution.
It has value as a novelty gift item today, like an asciminer usb stick. We need a silver asicminer usb stick with a hologram. LOL You can make money by trading them - that's good enough for me. LTC/BTC went x10 since early March, when I bought in. It's a useless clone of Bitcoin, but it was very good to me as a speculative asset. Buying LTC in March was probably one of the best investments I ever did, if I did not buy lite coin now I would have much less BTC, I can guarantee you that. That said, as soon Gox announces an official and concrete ETA I will dump 90% of my remaining holdings (which are aprox. 30% of the initial amount I had), and I will dump it for good. I will just keep a few hundreds for the lulz. |
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Bitcoin likely can't survive another extended bear market. Those of you who want cheap coins be careful what you wish for.
So it can startup from nothing, gain global attention, but if the price drops for a long time, then it will burn to nothing, not the first time, but the second time? Yeah, seems likely....  I'm not saying that bitcoin is dead. But if Bitcoin drops to <$30 again, it's going to take a lot longer to recover to >$100 (years perhaps) if it ever does. Why? Do you have empirical proof or analysis to share or its just a "gut feeling"? |
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[...]
For me the most important:
10000 Avalon 2.82THs 780BTC $ 78,000 + or- 25KW
11 Jupiter 4THs 770BTC $ 77,000 + or- 11KW
41% more hashrate
66% less power
No production cost
Assuming their deliver according to specs From 10,000 overclocked Avalon chips you can get 4TH/s, good and stable (non overclocked 2,82TH/s). And chips are priced in BTC - wait till BTC hits $30 to $50. Then the $/GH/s of Avalon chips will be waaaaay better  Do not forget if you OC any chip. Need more watts per chip. Also more watts for the cooling system. We must have a 282Mhz chip has a stress if it runs at 400Mhz. Higher possibility of failure. +42% OC is much for air cooling. Just think that your competitors do the same OC. Bitfury 120 to 170 12.7 $ / Ghs BFL 25 to 35 50 to 71 etc. .. 35.2$ / Ghs KNC 200 to 284 400 to 568 12.3$ / Ghs Avalon 2820 to 4000 19.5$ / Ghs Not counting the manufacture of miners 35$ / Ghs If we value the manufacture of each avalon 4 modules at $ 2,000. 31*2000 = 62000+78000 = 140000/4000 = 35 I have not added in any device the liquid cooling system and new PSU + Watts needed. Yes, but I'm assuming that BTC price will go down hard, to at least 50% of its actual price (so around $50), and that Avalon's chips are priced in BTC. From what Yifu said, they will "raise and fall" with BTC and won't change the price regardless of the exchange rate. If you consider a BTC/USD of $50, the $/GHs picture changes a lot. |
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As much as I like the fact that Bitcoin has some anonymity built into it, really I am not a fan of the fact it encourages illegal activity. Part of the reason I got into bitcoin later in the game, so to speak, was because of things exactly like this! I don't want to be affiliated with drug trafficking, porn, or even gaming sites. So as much as this probably will help boost the price of BTC, it is actually disheartening to me. And perhaps it does undermine the legitimacy of BTC in the longrun?
how do you feel about debt-based cash and credit and whats been done with them, through them, and by whom and how often ? how about gold and silver ? tally sticks ? you might want to compare the bad people and bad things done with and through each before answering... I am pretty sure you will agree how silly your post is, because even if currency was Yak shit - which it once was a very long time ago - bad people did bad things with it, good people did good things, good people did bad things, and bad people did good things with it.... just like bitcoin... just like cash... just like gold, and just like the next currency. This is true. However, my concern is that Bitcoin could possibly make it easier for people to do bad things, or get away with doing things a little easier. So you would like to ban any form of cash-like money? BS. And if you are worried about "being affiliated with bad things", you should have renounced to your US passport and citizenship a loooong time ago. Since you didn't, I guess you are not so worried about "being affiliated with bad things". |
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If you are not out, get out.
Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.
Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard. Taxes would hurt a lot? You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely). His predictions are simply completely ridiculous and based on nothing. He's is spreading fud for whatever reason. Probably trying to get the price lower to buy some more coins. Sad.    |
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Such lament already and yet the bear market in Bitcoin has only barely begun!
It's been a bear market for a month now. Bitcoin likely can't survive another extended bear market. Those of you who want cheap coins be careful what you wish for. "Bitcoin is dead" - Wired, Nov 2011 (~$2) Epic read, just as epic as what I like to consider the foundational Silk Road thread (I always wondered what nick Dread Pirate Roberts uses in these forums) |
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