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For me the most important:
10000 Avalon 2.82THs 780BTC $ 78,000 + or- 25KW
11 Jupiter 4THs 770BTC $ 77,000 + or- 11KW
41% more hashrate
66% less power
No production cost
Assuming their deliver according to specs From 10,000 overclocked Avalon chips you can get 4TH/s, good and stable (non overclocked 2,82TH/s). And chips are priced in BTC - wait till BTC hits $30 to $50. Then the $/GH/s of Avalon chips will be waaaaay better  |
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If you are not out, get out.
If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around. There are many timeframes and many winning strategies. Unless people are ready to lose 100% and hold for YEARS like I said before, I would advise against counter trend strategy. When the trend reverses up, you will a) have minimized your risk and b) probably have more Bitcoins. For anyone who doesn't like to trade at all though and wants a Bitcoin position I agree, dollar cost averaging is the way to go. Dollar cost averaging has been my strategy for long... But still, you need to be able to afford to buy constantly, during the crash. If you have already spent a lot in BTC, you won't average much by spending a little more while it goes down. It's just more effective to sell high, and buy lower. |
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It reminds me of Apple going up to $700 per share and then dropping back to $400. Which made people who sold at the top really happy as they can buy back lower.
AAPL is a bargain under $400 - EPS around 40 is healthy, but the kicker is the MASSIVE pile of cash they are sitting on. 140+ BILLIONS. With a B. To put it in perspective, Google has around 50 Billions, and that's already considered massive. The problem in finance (and in politics) is that too many focus on the group consensus, which usually has little to do with the actual details of the company being looked at. "Steve Jobs died!" & "Apple has lost its touch!" have led too many investors that were just going with the flow to jump ship. Apple could buy all of Tesla right now, and it wouldn't dent its pocket. Let that Sink in - Tesla, even with the tripling of current share prices past few months - is worth (corrected) 12 Billions. Now that was an extensive tangent and I apologize. But there is no doubt that we are in a similar type of boat right here with ASICMINER: Half of us have probably never invested in stocks before and are "going with the flow." Great learning experience rest assured. If rumors or hearsay keep scaring you away, then go rest in the shade. There is no doubt BFL has started shipping and others will soon too with better tech even, but AM has shown no sign of faltering and has been CRUSHING the network distribution on every scaling up. 20%+ and they appear to have blades waiting to scale further. They bet on maximizing older tech and won, and I'm sure this has something to do with their decision of not going into 28nm chips. Currently you can see that they've stepped out of the sheer mining game, and are moving more into retail by selling equipment. Even better with the headstart they have. Sure, they had to slash price and it appears they were pressured in doing so. But this will be a learning experience for next time - meanwhile I think the USB miners will sell ok, maybe would have been better to reduce the price to .7 even. AM is grossly undervalued. A "Bubble" might appear with unsure investors doubting, but it doesn't really matter to the ones who look at numbers. The things that worry me:Tax status in China - Will the government just blindly let this go on forever? I think not... AM regulatory status as a company in China - Is AM remotely legal? Classified as a manufacturing plant? What could go wrong there? scaleability vs. efficiency - friedcat has shown he could deliver. The scaleability is a problem of its own and one different from efficiency. BTC itself - While we look at AM to keep busy, we forget to see the decline of BTC/USD happening - We need to promote Bitcoin and show the world it is a viable currency for all. Risk - friedcat could disappear from one day to the next, and there's nothing you could do about it. (NB: Valid for all Exchange/PT holders) So the discount we see in the share price likely takes some of these into account. Warren Buffet said it best: "To refer to a personal taste of mine, I'm going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the 'Hallelujah Chorus' in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it's the same with everything in life they will be buying -- except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don't like them anymore." *edit* TLDR - It might drop in value, but like Apple, value of the investment goes beyond surface. Pretty much this. |
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If you are not out, get out.
If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around. Agreed that the best time to sell it's not now - it was obviously April, 9th, or if you didn't have the sheer luck to catch the very top, best time was when we bounced to $160ish after the crash to $50. In any case, you win more by selling now at $100 and buying back lower. Because it will be lower... |
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If you are not out, get out.
Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.
Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard. Taxes would hurt a lot? Mmmm... Yeah. You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?
My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view. . This will shorten the time from 2. bubble to 3. bubble and it will make the 3. bigger. Trend reversal needs just one big whale and then we go. In these conditions predicting that price will stay low for long is just denialism. It took a lot of time to generate the first bubble. Glad that you are so sure about it. I think the bolded part is true, but I also believe this is something that works in two ways. In 2011, a lot of people said "OMG, this is a scam", so they exited the market pretty fast. Now a lot of investors said "cool, it crashed, I can buy lower and wait for the next bubble", so there is more buying happening, the price bounces more, and at the end of the day it takes longer for the price to fall consistently. But it falls, like it happens during all bubbles deflations, and some of those investors that bought at $160 will crap their pants when we will reach $80, and will sell. Then it will be the turn of those that bought at $100, etc... People realizes that is stupid to hold on 1 coin if you can sell it and buy back 2 coins. So, yes - people has more confidence in BTC now, and they are exiting the market in a slower fashion. But nevertheless they are exiting the market. Just check both the volume and the fiat on Gox and Bitstamp order books. Is declining. Fiat is leaving. And there's absolutely no sign for it to be coming back soon. |
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How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY haha
img: http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1372413721617.pngSmart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend. Check out the bold dude, they might be laughing at you soon The harsh reality is that "whales" that bought high, will sell low rather sooner than later, pushing the price down hard with their high volume. That's how market psychology works. |
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I don't know why people keep looking at 2011 and tell me "this time it's different".
If this time is different, then it's because it's worse.
Now you are contradicting yourself... The only way for it to be worse would be to go below $15. So you are not a single digit believer, but just slightly higher???  I like you a lot more when you post thoughtful comments instead of trollish fear-mongering. But hey however you get your jollies I guess he says it will be worst because there will be more traps, and the bear market will last longer. |
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I dunno. Do you think everyone will forget that we already went through this before, and then came roaring back? Nothing is broken. Bitcoin works. Do you really think all the whales were just in it for a quick buck?Definitely YES. If not "all", at least most of them. How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY haha Sorry, but in my book the "smart" thing is to sell at the highest possible point, especially after an obvious bubble popped, in order to buy lower and increase your stash, while recouping your initial investment and possibly realizing some fiat profits. I'm all for the "revolutionary" aspect of Bitcoin, I'm a true believer, I have a paper wallet with a non-negligible amount of Bitcoins that I will never touch because I cannot bear (LOL) the thought of being "totally out", but at the end of the day Bitcoin is still money... And if you want to do good, you need more of it, and there's no point in fighting the market, just follow it and try to profit as much as possible. |
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If you are not out, get out.
Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.
Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard. Taxes would hurt a lot? Mmmm... Yeah. You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?
My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view. |
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I dunno. Do you think everyone will forget that we already went through this before, and then came roaring back? Nothing is broken. Bitcoin works. Do you really think all the whales were just in it for a quick buck?Definitely YES. If not "all", at least most of them. |
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If you are not out, get out.
Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.
Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard. |
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My take is as long as we don't break new lows, we're still ok. Below $88, even a little, and we're fucked
No, we are not fucked. We are cool. The cheaper the coins are, the more you can buy. Obviously you need a handful of fiat for that. I have it prepared, do you?  |
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I updated the OP with the following information, please correct if there's any mistake: cmdbill: refund requested and not honored yet, 9 days waiting so far
elendir: refund requested and not honored yet, 9 days waiting so far
aissto: refund requested and not honored yet, address requested by support
ilike to mine: refund requested on June 25th and not honored yet, 3 days waiting so far |
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Expect the same situation we had in 2011 and at the end of 2012, which is the normal situation.
Miners mining for peanuts, the profit is in having free electricity and free storage for your units. If your electricity is expensive, you will have to turn your rig off or mine at a loss.
Mining is by nature a marginally profitable business, as soon as the advantage of the ASIC early adopters goes away we will be back at the normal situation where miners fight for pennies.
BTW, the time in which mining with an ASIC meant "wild profit" is already over. Expect many people investing now in ASIC mining never recouping their investment. Especially those that buy "mining bonds" at inflated prices.
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So we wait for the next proper working version of Armory ?
The current one works fine - if you have 8 GB of RAM. So if you are impatient, that is an option ...  I have to admit that I upgraded my laptop with a) 4GB more of RAM, to reach a total of 8GB and b) a faster, 7,200rpm hard disk, only to be able to run Armory without any problem. And I'm very happy I did it. Armory is indeed the best client out there, a must-have for anyone serious with Bitcoin, and thus the upgrade was really worth it |
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24 Hour bottom, any guesses?
Me-$89
Around that, say $93. The larger support is around 82 though. Be careful at that 90 level, it can fall through it... Where do you see the larger support at 82? Expect a bounce around that level, but be careful with catching falling knives. Sooner or later we will fall below $80ish, the big question is "when" and after "how many bounces". Two months and a half passed after the April, 10th crash, and it looks very much like that the decline will be in fact longer than the 5-months bear we had in 2011. Honestly, I hope BrightAnarchist is not right predicting a multi-year bear market, that would be disheartening, and BTC is so small that just a few big players' moves can reverse the trend.Based on this?  And to second bold: of course that's not true and you said it yourself, "few big players' moves can reverse the trend." That's far more likely outcome than a multi-year bear market... Are you just trying to create selling pressure with that statement? First question: yep, based on that. Technicals say there will be support and thus a bounce at $80ish, traders will want to play that in a sort of self-fulfilling profecy, as usual. Second question: I don't try to create anything with my statements, you need to be a delusional fool to think that a post on these forums can affect the price. I agree that a multi-year bear market feels unlikely, but the cold, technical truth is that it looks we are heading to that. Nevertheless, as I stated this is a very tiny market in which technicals are pretty much useless to predict mid and long term moves, you just need one big player throwing a few millions to the market to completely reverse the trend. Obviously that cannot be predicted, if it happens we will see it just after it happened |
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Did you guys realized that there are only $511k in Bitstamp's order book?
When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.
To give a little bit of context, the ratio between fiat on Bitstamp and Gox has consistently been 1:20. When we had $1M on Bitstamp, we had aprox. $20M on Gox. Now we have $511k on Bitstamp and $11M on Gox.
Gox is still the leading exchange for a reason. Expect a bear in which you will see much less "Bitcoin is a ponzi" talk compared to 2011, but a lot more "OMG the government thugs are coming after us, seizing all our money and eventually locking us up in Guantanamo".
Anyhow, the negative sentiment needs to be MUCH stronger in order to reach the real bottom, which I still hope it will be $50ish. I won't be surprised by $30-$50, I will be puzzled if we go below $30, and quite disappointed if we go below $20.
Anyhow, fasten your seat belts - its going to be a bumpy ride (gif expected, come on guys!)
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24 Hour bottom, any guesses?
Me-$89
Around that, say $93. The larger support is around 82 though. Be careful at that 90 level, it can fall through it... Where do you see the larger support at 82? Well its pretty clear that around $80ish we will have some real support. Expect a bounce around that level, but be careful with catching falling knives. Sooner or later we will fall below $80ish, the big question is "when" and after "how many bounces". Two months and a half passed after the April, 10th crash, and it looks very much like that the decline will be in fact longer than the 5-months bear we had in 2011. Honestly, I hope BrightAnarchist is not right predicting a multi-year bear market, that would be disheartening, and BTC is so small that just a few big players' moves can reverse the trend. |
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