Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

24 Hour bottom, any guesses?

Me-$89

Around that, say $93. The larger support is around 82 though. Be careful at that 90 level, it can fall through it...

Where do you see the larger support at 82?

Well its pretty clear that around $80ish we will have some real support. Expect a bounce around that level, but be careful with catching falling knives. Sooner or later we will fall below $80ish, the big question is "when" and after "how many bounces". Two months and a half passed after the April, 10th crash, and it looks very much like that the decline will be in fact longer than the 5-months bear we had in 2011. Honestly, I hope BrightAnarchist is not right predicting a multi-year bear market, that would be disheartening, and BTC is so small that just a few big players' moves can reverse the trend.

Based on this?


And to second bold: of course that's not true and you said it yourself, "few big players' moves can reverse the trend." That's far more likely outcome than a multi-year bear market... Are you just trying to create selling pressure with that statement?

First question: yep, based on that. Technicals say there will be support and thus a bounce at $80ish, traders will want to play that in a sort of self-fulfilling profecy, as usual.

Second question: I don't try to create anything with my statements, you need to be a delusional fool to think that a post on these forums can affect the price. I agree that a multi-year bear market feels unlikely, but the cold, technical truth is that it looks we are heading to that. Nevertheless, as I stated this is a very tiny market in which technicals are pretty much useless to predict mid and long term moves, you just need one big player throwing a few millions to the market to completely reverse the trend. Obviously that cannot be predicted, if it happens we will see it just after it happened

[Dalib]

Did you guys realized that there are only $511k in Bitstamp's order book?

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

To give a little bit of context, the ratio between fiat on Bitstamp and Gox has consistently been 1:20. When we had $1M on Bitstamp, we had aprox. $20M on Gox. Now we have $511k on Bitstamp and $11M on Gox.

Gox is still the leading exchange for a reason. Expect a bear in which you will see much less "Bitcoin is a ponzi" talk compared to 2011, but a lot more "OMG the government thugs are coming after us, seizing all our money and eventually locking us up in Guantanamo".

Anyhow, the negative sentiment needs to be MUCH stronger in order to reach the real bottom, which I still hope it will be $50ish. I won't be surprised by $30-$50, I will be puzzled if we go below $30, and quite disappointed if we go below $20.

Anyhow, fasten your seat belts - its going to be a bumpy ride (gif expected, come on guys!)

Asks / bids on Bitstamp is really pessimistic...

[Jaroslaw]

The olny thing that preventing price to drop is blocked transfers of USD on GOX. ALso in this time GOX can play users money to make price higher.

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

24 Hour bottom, any guesses?

Me-$89

Around that, say $93. The larger support is around 82 though. Be careful at that 90 level, it can fall through it...

Where do you see the larger support at 82?

When searching for support I look for past areas that we "hung out" at or bounced off of or closed/opened at AND I really search for volume IF the times were short (e.g. large drop).
So, 82 hits that mark. I stated what has been restated and it's worth saying again - be really careful of trying to catch a bounce as the bottom is probably not 82 (except short term, if that).

[Dalib]

Did you guys realized that there are only $511k in Bitstamp's order book?

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

To give a little bit of context, the ratio between fiat on Bitstamp and Gox has consistently been 1:20. When we had $1M on Bitstamp, we had aprox. $20M on Gox. Now we have $511k on Bitstamp and $11M on Gox.

Gox is still the leading exchange for a reason. Expect a bear in which you will see much less "Bitcoin is a ponzi" talk compared to 2011, but a lot more "OMG the government thugs are coming after us, seizing all our money and eventually locking us up in Guantanamo".

Anyhow, the negative sentiment needs to be MUCH stronger in order to reach the real bottom, which I still hope it will be $50ish. I won't be surprised by $30-$50, I will be puzzled if we go below $30, and quite disappointed if we go below $20.

Anyhow, fasten your seat belts - its going to be a bumpy ride (gif expected, come on guys!)

Asks / bids on Bitstamp is really pessimistic...

Bitstamp last low from June 9 = 90.00, Bitstamp low now = 90.07 

[dan99]

The olny thing that preventing price to drop is blocked transfers of USD on GOX. ALso in this time GOX can play users money to make price higher.

possibly they could do that ..

what we need is millions of eCommerce websites using btc as a medium of exchange.

[N12]

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

Very true. The bubble has popped, and we are now in the process of deflating it until we hit CAPITULATION.

▼ mtgoxUSD    96.5000    
▼ bitstampUSD    90.9000    
▼ btceUSD    92.1320    

Incredible how dysfunctional this market still is. Bitstamp keeps leading the way for MtGox now.

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

[Rampion]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

[N12]

The realization that we will probably not be seeing triple digits for the remainder of 2013. Who knows about 2014.

Regarding withdrawing, I don't have that itch because of a lack of trust in MtGox but mainly to protect myself against possible irrationality/mistakes (buying into bull traps). There is a certain barrier in depositing because it takes time, so you are likely to make a more informed decision. I think I can handle it though. At a certain point I plan to split between long-term BTC holdings and speculative money.

[bangersdad]

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

Very true. The bubble has popped, and we are now in the process of deflating it until we hit CAPITULATION.

▼ mtgoxUSD    96.5000    
▼ bitstampUSD    90.9000    
▼ btceUSD    92.1320    

Incredible how dysfunctional this market still is. Bitstamp keeps leading the way for MtGox now.

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Speculators have sold/selling....bitcoin will find its true value and only when there is a real need for it, which i just dont think there is at this moment in time,  will it rise like a phoenix from the ashes.

[gandhibt]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely).

[N12]

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely).

I've seen all this happen in 2011 before and it's happening again. So yes, it's easy to predict the most likely general course of things. People's psychology, emotions and sentiment do not change fast, and habits don't change fast either. It's not a singularity, and that notion is the greatest lie ever.

[Miz4r]

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

Very true. The bubble has popped, and we are now in the process of deflating it until we hit CAPITULATION.

▼ mtgoxUSD    96.5000    
▼ bitstampUSD    90.9000    
▼ btceUSD    92.1320    

Incredible how dysfunctional this market still is. Bitstamp keeps leading the way for MtGox now.

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

You sound like Nagle. And we all know how that ended up for him.

USD withdrawal lock on MtGox is causing the 'dysfunctional' behaviour of the market right now, there's not much more to it than that really. You drama bears crack me up every time.

[N12]

Unlike Nagle, I am a long term bull. Unlike Nagle, I've done well for myself.

But I'm certain that most people who pretend to be long-term bulls will be selling at $40.

USD withdrawal lock on MtGox is causing the 'dysfunctional' behaviour of the market right now, there's not much more to it than that really

I'm aware. Just saying that Bitstamp has been leading MtGox prices on the way down for a while ever since they decoupled.

[Rampion]

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

[N12]

I don't know why people keep looking at 2011 and tell me "this time it's different".

If this time is different, then it's because it's worse.

[ChartBuddy]

[spooderman]

ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to below 100 again

[N12]

You'll get used to it.