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But, just for kicks, same numbers as before, but instead of 334 (advertised hashrate) and 0.05 (20X increase over a year), I will use 400 (actual hashrate) and 0.025 (a 40X increase).
Hardware break even 1 year, 5 days
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England didn't just go away, but others rose to squeeze out it's dominance.
Who benefits from dropping stocks and bonds?
Short sellers? |
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And you would have to be also really stupid to assume diff growth will be reduced by the entry of ASICs... but hey.. w/e go buy some more.
And you would have to ignore a lot to come to the conclusion that one company shipping reliably leads to an explosion in hash power while price is falling. And don't forget they rely on foundries for chips that service customers like Intel, AMD, and Apple. Good luck getting them to rush your order. |
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Lol, you're being a dumbass.
Read the data. I'm not extrapolating anything.
Using the last 10 diff changes, the daily diff increase is right now of 1.3 %. These are current factual real values !
1.3 x 11 days = 14,36 %
Now go to that spreadsheet, fill in 14,36 instead of the (impossible)10%.
Voila. Unprofitable.
You clearly don't know what extrapolation is. In mathematics, extrapolation is the process of estimating, beyond the original observation interval, the value of a variable on the basis of its relationship with another variable.
Extrapolating is exactly what you are doing. |
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10% increase every 11days is optimistic.
It is flat out wrong. We're currently at 14,36% every 11 days. And once ASIC start shipping by the thousands it will go up up up.. but let's say 18% to be optimistic.. Can you run it with both of those numbers?  |
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go change your tampon sally, theres no need to be yelling at newbs. does it make you feel cool?
The newb in question clearly said that he didn't even google it because he is lazy. I was actually helping him by giving him an obvious BS answer so that he might do some critical thinking himself in the future. This is a must in the Bitcoin world, unfortunately thankfully. Herd behavior is how we wound up with the current financial system. More critical thinking is needed at this point in time. You better hope the average dumbass can use Bitcoin or this really is a Ponzi scheme! Now apologize to the newbie and get him buying coins so mine are worth more. LOL Oh, they will be able to. They might get upset when they invest in a bitcoin based ponzi scheme, but as long as they stick to transacting in bitcoin they will be fine. |
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https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=237937.msg2580881#msg2580881Let's walk through this: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/Let's do it in BTC terms, so set USD/BTC to 1 and price to 1. Set electrical rate to 0.0009 (about $0.09/KWh). Set hashrate to advertised 334. Power Consumption: 2.5 W Now, let's set profitability decline to 0.05, which is an assumption that we will have a 20x increase in difficulty over the next year. Hardware break even 1 year, 1 day Oh, and the ones I have in hand are hashing at 400MH/s, but shhhh.
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go change your tampon sally, theres no need to be yelling at newbs. does it make you feel cool?
The newb in question clearly said that he didn't even google it because he is lazy. I was actually helping him by giving him an obvious BS answer so that he might do some critical thinking himself in the future. This is a must in the Bitcoin world, unfortunately thankfully. Herd behavior is how we wound up with the current financial system. More critical thinking is needed at this point in time. |
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China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.
Right and wrong it takes time for a country to wither away esp one which is second biggest financially. However it will be outsourcing to us as long as there is incentive to do so. The minute that american govt outs a tax on china labour to the corporations then itnwill stop. How can they do this? When energu costs allow them to compete internally as well as competitive exporting. Who wouldnt pay 5% extra for something made in usa or canada? As energy becomes cheaper through innovation or politics the choice will become available to do so. Exactly, energy is key and we are closer than ever to having enough for large scale automation. |
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Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.
So true... I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago... I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now. Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI. The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC. All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today. And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now. The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too. Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty. Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices. So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down. Looking bleak. ASICMiner is the only one shipping with reasonable lead times. They sell for BTC. Anyone selling for USD is only selling you a preorder. Yeah but they are not exempt from the crime. Take for example the usb miners they are selling right now. Approximately 1btc according to the groupbuy currently ongoing. 1btc = 330mh That's absolutely ridiculous. That much hashing power with the current (somewhat slowed down) diff rate growth will never generate 1 btc, never ever. Let's walk through this: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/Let's do it in BTC terms, so set USD/BTC to 1 and price to 1. Set electrical rate to 0.0009 (about $0.09/KWh). Set hashrate to advertised 334. Power Consumption: 2.5 W Now, let's set profitability decline to 0.05, which is an assumption that we will have a 20x increase in difficulty over the next year. Hardware break even 1 year, 1 day Oh, and the ones I have in hand are hashing at 400MH/s, but shhhh. |
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I still don't know what it means. I could use google, but for the sake of conversation, I'll wait for an answer here
really you googled "ponzi scheme" and nothing useful came up. Like maybe wikipedia article explaining the concept of a ponzi scheme in the first post. Maybe you don't know how to use google. I rarely do this but LMGTFY http://lmgtfy.com/?q=ponzi+schemeNo, he said he doesn't want to google it because he wants someone to explain it to him. To which, I would say search these forums for ponzi and post in one of the other 29 threads. |
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Every single other device out there bought today is already unprofitable and will be so until ASIC makers cut their prices at least in half.
So true... I feel sorry for peoples who still buy 50GH/s miners at twice the price you could get a 60GH/s miner a few months ago... I would definitely wait for prices to drop before buying another ASIC now. Being at the end of the line, when you receive your order, you won't make ROI. The only one thing is that to still be "part of the game" in a few months, you'll need an ASIC. All the rest will be like having a very power-hungry CPU today. And I think it's safe to assume that once the difficulty goes up, and people calculate the ROI, then ASIC will just stop selling at the ridiculous prices they are now. The prices will drop, and ASIC will get faster too. Until then, as said, the high prices are sustained only because peoples are bad in math and basing their ROI based on today's difficulty, in an dream world where they would get their ASIC tomorrow, with current difficulty. Aye. Also, think about the fact that ASICs are mostly (or entirely?) sold in usd, so if and while btc/usd goes down they become even more unprofitable at current prices. So you got difficulty AND btc/usd both directly affecting ROI: diff quickly going up, and btc/usd trending down. Looking bleak. ASICMiner is the only one shipping with reasonable lead times. They sell for BTC. Anyone selling for USD is only selling you a preorder. |
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It would be a maximum of twice as responsive for the jallies, assuming each chip starts work 180 degrees from each other.
And potentially much better with the rigs with higher chip counts, but in practice they would likely be fairly close to synced, so the improvement would be small if it even surpassed the extra overhead. |
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WTF is this? Jocks collapsing. Nerds up  Just Alex Jones being a fucktard as usually. Nobody important pays any attention to that guy. The guy should be granted the title "Most typical US-American" by a committee of Chinese Sociologists.  Seriously for me he's a symbol of many things that went wrong in the US. I will admit he has an audience, but while loud they are a very small minority. |
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how bright was the light? lol
Very bright. As in, a bright idea. Bitcoin is a bright idea which will enlighten the world. |
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WTF is this? Jocks collapsing. Nerds up Just Alex Jones being a fucktard as usually. Nobody important pays any attention to that guy. |
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China ain't gonna collapse as long as there are production business left in the western world to out-source. Give it another decade.
In another decade China's exports will have collapsed as American robots and 3D printers lead a resurgence in western manufacturing. Even China can't beat unpaid labor. 3D Printers are robots. And who is gonna build the robots? And most importantly who's gonna supply the raw materials? Robots will do most robot manufacture, and some repair. There will always be maintenance people, but a 5 man team can keep an entire factory rolling. Since there is almost no labor demand, their wages won't be that high anyway. We may be slightly more than a decade away, but I believe we will see significant progress towards this. You have no idea how many junkyards with over 50,000 tons of scrap steel I have within 100 miles of my house. Americans have been throwing shit away like crazy for decades. We also mine quite a bit of various metals. Yes, there are some resources we lack, but we have a great abundance of energy and arable land. All the labour will be in engineering. Tell me why that will not be outsourced. Tell me why it would. What nation's university system attracts more engineering students than the US? Also, these guys are already selling product: http://www.rethinkrobotics.com/You'd better hope your job is harder than what these $22k robots can do with a little training (demonstration by a human, not programming). Regardless, it doesn't matter who makes them initially. Manufacturing jobs are going away and manufacturing will occur on a more local basis. |
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ASIC manufacturers seem to only consider p2pool as an afterthought. They seem to like coming up with optimized designs that achieve increased hashrates by delaying the reporting of shares by a few hundred milliseconds or even a few seconds.
P2Pool is changing their share time to 30 seconds from 10 seconds, which should help. In addition, there are ways to tune you mining settings so that you can achieve greater than 100% efficiency as long as you have good internet connectivity. |
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