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1481
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:54:43 PM
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Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from.
[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can
bitcoind != bitcoin-qt, but whatever.... also, just because they use bitcoind to handle the networking and blockchain doesn't mean that bitcoind has the only copy of the data and the only codepaths that can work with said data. |
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1482
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:53:09 PM
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I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down. Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from. Their problem is that their wallet and their blockchain database and their network code are all in one package, so they can't generate transactions because they don't know which outputs they have to spend. Once those three things get separated it become a lot easier. If you've still got a working blockchain database, and you are keeping track of which outputs you've spend and which you haven't, then you can generate the transaction manually and use the pushtx feature on blockchain.info to broadcast it if need be. That's not true. They give you the transaction id when you withdrawal, which means the transaction has to be created and signed. It is later broadcast on the network. There is always some delay, but with the outage the delay was longer than normal. |
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1483
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:45:07 PM
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They should also have several fallbacks. They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it. Any client can do that. These alternate implementations do things like separate the blockchain management from the network communication from the wallet. It means you can do things set up clustering on the various pieces for better performance and load balancing. You know, grown-up software stuff. I understand that. I'm just saying that all they need is the network communication code to be able to broadcast the withdrawal transactions, and they should have redundancy in their setup in case a bug is triggered in one client or a server goes down. Also, I doubt they are using bitcoin-qt... I'm not sure where kazu got that from. |
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1484
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:28:59 PM
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[22:33] <@MagicalTux> samson_: downloading new blocks as fast as bitcoind can Services needing high uptime should really look at switching to one of the alternate implementations (Bits of Proof or btcd). The Satoshi client is a prototype, not an engineered final product. They should also have several fallbacks. They already generate and sign the transactions with their own code, so they just need to broadcast it. Any client can do that. Perhaps when the coins become available the asks might fill in a bit on the various exchanges. |
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1485
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Economy / Speculation / Re: $20-ish correction soon, then climb continues
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:17:58 PM
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A correction would make reasonable sense and would be healthy for the market. Permabears would scream victory before shutting up as it climbs again.
We could use a good, strong, ABC correction, but I doubt the bulls will let such an opportunity pass for long. |
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1489
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
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on: October 19, 2013, 03:55:34 PM
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we might be going for a new ATH, I mean its hard for me to believe... but the market shows no sign of weekness, if anything we are getting stronger on the way up.
this either ends very soon, or we will bubble to 1000$
The "bearish divergences" I've been whining about have mostly evaporated. There is a huge bullish opportunity here if there is enough cash in reserve to drive it a bit higher with volume. |
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1492
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Economy / Economics / Re: How do people think using Mt. Gox is efficient?
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on: October 19, 2013, 02:06:18 PM
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You falsely assume everyone is in the usa, hence high transaction costs and long withdrawal times.
Of course, the majority of MtGox customers are in USA. Why the hell do you need USD, if you are not in USA? Idk, maybe because global oil trade is denominated primarily in USD? Or because you live in one of the many countries where the dollar is more highly valued than the local currency. Or because there is no volume in your local currency and dollars are the most fungible foreign currency? Or... |
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1493
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Economy / Speculation / Re: So who sold below $100 during the SR "crash"?
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on: October 19, 2013, 01:57:30 PM
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Bitstamp's high was 172.00 but Gox is leading the market still, and if Gox surpasses $200 we could see ATH soon, and bitstamp will follow. Anyway, you could be right but time will tell  To me Gox is just its own entity of paper trading. The lack of USD liquidity for Gox customers has not been resolved, and so it's just a sinkhole of value IMO. The volume indicates there are either fools with lots of money still trading, or a few big fish who have made private arrangements with gox for withdrawals. I'd bet on the latter. |
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1494
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Explain the current BTC / USD trend.
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on: October 19, 2013, 01:37:07 PM
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Price went up because demand is higher than supply.
All the rest is speculation at best, but mostly just rationalization.
Wish I sold less coins though. :/
Is it possible that demand becomes lower than supply? In the long run, years, unlikely, in the short run it is possible.
I have my hopes on the asic miners. I think it is likely that many of them did not liquidate their btc since most of them until now made huge profits. But I also don't think they reinvested these btc. ASICMINER comes to mind who mostly distributed the btc to stockholders if I am correct. Only part got liquidated for reinvestment and living expenses.
But what will happen when asic miners start to lose money? Can they just keep a big part of their mined btc like before? No, they must liquidate most of them to pay the bills. And if they run at a loss they must even liquidate their stash of btc they have build up.
Fingers crossed.
WRT miners needing to pay costs, keep in mind that even with current difficulty and first gen ASICs, production is around 50x electric costs. We have a ways to go before they need to sell a significant share to cover ongoing expenses. |
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1495
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Economy / Economics / Re: How do people think using Mt. Gox is efficient?
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on: October 19, 2013, 04:07:55 AM
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Sure, they're probably lured in by this:  But 22 months, the top USD withdraw time, is ridiculous. 22 months from now, the $170 you sold your bitcoin for wouldn't buy five bitcoins on bitstamp. I just want to know; is it simply misinformation that has the Gox's volume so high? Or maybe some people with big accounts have picked up the phone and asked mtgox to set something up for them. Then your assumption that nobody can get money out doesn't hold. These big fish are likely making bank on arbitrage, but smaller users have to buy btc to get out. |
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1496
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.
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on: October 19, 2013, 02:56:06 AM
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The most fun part of the roller coaster is when it gets down. Weak hands might slip away from the wagon.
Also, be cautious, climbing up with your eyes closed makes you not see when it goes downhill.
If you're bullish, when the coaster falls, grab all the coins you can from those who fall off. One of my longer term scenarios is that this 5 wave structure I've labelled is wave 1 of the 5th wave starting from the initial trades. Wave 1 ended at 32, wave 3 ended at 266, wave 1 of 5 down, 2-5 to come. This is of course ultra bullish, but it is a possibility at this time (aka you can count it this way without breaking any of the 3 rules). |
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1497
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.
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on: October 19, 2013, 02:47:45 AM
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So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so.
...snip... So you sold in July (except for your bot) and now you would be happy at $116 but dont expect it to fall there. Is that what I am supposed to suppose the answer to my question was with that riddle you just put in quotes? No.... where are you getting that I sold? In July, I labelled the rally as wave 1 of the 5 wave structure. That was a bullish call, so I wouldn't have sold. As I bolded, "I haven't really investigated a target". If you really want me to, I can pull up some charts, but I'm more of a big picture guy and just sometimes guess at short term wiggles for the fun of it. In short, my answer is my bot buys back at many levels, but I don't do manual trades on anything smaller than the weekly charts. The bot is a bit short, but at a price I can live with if we take off from here since it makes money from dampening big swings  . |
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1498
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.
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on: October 19, 2013, 02:36:35 AM
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Cool story bro, head it a thousand times. I made a prediction in July using this method as one of my tools and it has played out. The method alone is not perfect, but combined with other tools it helps complete the picture
So at what price point are you buying back in based on your projections? - I am assuming your believe we are at the end of a bull market and headed bear for a season or so. If the price went down to $116-ish now I'd be so goddamn happy its not even funny.
Me too. I haven't really investigated a target since I don't trade short term besides my bot, but my gut says $116 is too low. BTW, we are looking at the count without the background. Background was the alternate that didn't happen. Hit the play button: https://www.tradingview.com/v/1WtxlzAv/Corrections can happen quick in this market. Only having orders on the books at all times can win you extra btc in this market. |
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1499
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Economy / Speculation / Re: Market has peaked, sell off incoming.
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on: October 19, 2013, 02:35:55 AM
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I know it seems nice to use these simple wave formulas to speculate, but there is much to much going on and way too few bitcoin being traded for us to surmise where this things is headed intermediate term.
Well no shit, this is about sharing potential outcomes and their likelyhoods, not predicting the future. That is impossible |
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