Yeah, but I think to them virtual currency means AmazonCoin and Terrance and Phillips MintChip not Bitcoin. They are looking for money laundering. Don't you suppose they are at least a little concerned with tumblers and that Bitcoin is the payment system of choice for SR. Don't be naïve.
No, they are not talking about AmazonCoin and the like following regulations. They are talking about the read deal and this is a great sign. He even mentioned the FinCen guidance. Now, this doesn't mean pressure won't come later from the banks or the government (from behind the scenes) but as a short to mid term statement, it is HUGE. Basically, "We won't F' with you if you follow regulations". This is a huge confidence builder for holders and potential holders. The VC money is moving in and they are all about doing things on the up and up. I'd like you to be right but I see SR as either one of two things, they have to eventually find a way to shut it down or they own it as a honeypot. There is much uncertainty here. No one can argue that. We can fear what is coming and that just gives them power. Or, you can go with what you believe in and give it you best - 111% We are so close to the 100th monkey I can taste it. (But maybe I just have a really good sense of taste.  ) Understand one simple thing - Technology is moving forward VERY VERY FAST. Much much faster than governments can react. They are trapped inside slow to adjust systems. It won't be them that comes after us, it will be corporations, banks and the like. The Former is sort of on our side. It is where the banks come in that we have a bit to worry about. But, Banks are NOT Anti-Fragile (see my sig). They are prone to breaking and collapsing - they always do. Things can change quicker than you believe - it is often how it ends up happening. They don't lose control of the "system" - they lose control of the "information". We start, and we are starting, to see reality more for what it is. Seeing these banks struggle, seeing the line between nation states and corporations get fuzzy, etc - it is becoming easier and more obvious. Change is imminent. |
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Well, we can't fool ourselves into thinking they are unaware of it or that they don't see it as a threat (and won't eventually come after it when other indirect methods fail - and they will). That would be silly. Banking is the center of the western world and all the wars that go with it. Ideally as money leaves that system and goes into systems that are more compassionate, we will see change. It will take time, though their system of banking as currently constructed is in danger of popping. There only hope is to have people believe the upward stock market and growing money supply and zero % interest rates are a good thing. That seems to be changing in many peoples minds. I'd say they are losing the propaganda war. Between now and next war that system can pop and I hope enough people high up in the military don't go along with another BS war. So, as that system goes it might really be too late to act on the BTC one. After all, it is going to look terrible going after a system that is holding value, people based, etc. Luckily there isn't a "new world order" or one world government to make things easier for these criminals. We have the Universe on our side. Regarding the point of this thread, BTC is too much to just analyze with a trendline. Though I favor watching it with a logarithmic one... IAS I like your thinking, there still seems to be lots of signs that the push for global government is still on track though and theres still a mass of braindead sheeple happily going along with it and totally unaware they are being robbed blind by the system. (to fund wars etc as you say). Truth is a powerful force though and the internet is shining a lot of truth and light on us. I really get the feeling (and from listening to a variety of people with some "inside" information - podcasts and the like - if you believe them.) that there are people high up that are not at all going along with TPTB. There really is no one in charge but there are some people (or should I say corporations) that can exert GREAT might. The thing is, China, Russia and other countries have something to say about it. For sure there are proxy wars going on as well. There certainly is still a push for Global Government, no doubt. And looking at their control slowly slipping really does make me think a false flag (yes, another one) is in the works. But, they rarely go off perfectly and the longer they wait, one might argue, the more we see (due to better technology, rising consciousness, etc.) No fear and going forward. Fear has been a controlling mechanism for too long. And you can just see how people are learning to let it go, slowly, but it is happening. If you find something you believe in, even if it is still a "part" of the system (a bit like Bitcoin, in a regulated sense anyway), it doesn't matter. You put your heart and soul into it and don't look back. We are all a part of this revolution, be it of the mind, the BTC, or whatever... |
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Yeah, but I think to them virtual currency means AmazonCoin and Terrance and Phillips MintChip not Bitcoin. They are looking for money laundering. Don't you suppose they are at least a little concerned with tumblers and that Bitcoin is the payment system of choice for SR. Don't be naïve.
No, they are not talking about AmazonCoin and the like following regulations. They are talking about the read deal and this is a great sign. He even mentioned the FinCen guidance. Now, this doesn't mean pressure won't come later from the banks or the government (from behind the scenes) but as a short to mid term statement, it is HUGE. Basically, "We won't F' with you if you follow regulations". This is a huge confidence builder for holders and potential holders. The VC money is moving in and they are all about doing things on the up and up. |
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I sold some Bitcoin in a down market to a person and they watched the price fall for a few hours before deciding not to pay me the money. In that 24 hour time my Bitcoin was not sellable as it was locked up for their purchase. They got a bad star rating (now they can be kicked out). Anyway, the point is we need short confirmation times and if we can link bank accounts somehow, to show that a payment was sent, this would solve that problem. I learned my lesson now to only sell to buyers with perfect ratings (in a down market anyway.)
This is what we in the biz call a "free option". The higher the volatility, the more valuable this option is to its holder (the buyer of BTC) and the more value taken from the writer (you). You can argue that this is institutionalized theft, and even with a 12 hour wait time the volatility of BTC can be so high that it's worth it for the buyer to accept being banned. The other problem is the long confirmation takes away the buyer's option to sell immediately (no good for short term trading). Well said. It is just sad that people would do something like that to another just over money. But, my lesson was learned and it didn't cost me much $$$. Now I know what to expect in the future so if and when I do sell, I won't do so as to give the buyer some form of "F*CK ME" insurance. IAS |
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I m here for the dinosaurs  Be careful what you wish for...  |
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http://www.davidnews.com/2013/05/liberty-reserve-laundered-6-billion.htmlListen from around the 27:30 minute on. Some VERY notable extracts: I want to make clear that today's actions does not mean that we are against virtual currencies To the contrary, mobile and internet based financial technologies, including virtual currencies, have great promise to empower consumers, to encourage the development of innovative financial products and expand access to financial services. In fact FinCen issued guidance in March 2013 to bring clarity and regulatory certainty to businesses and individuals.... Those offering virtual currencies must comply with these regulatory requirements and if they do so they have nothing to fear... This is pretty damn good news guys... Big Wow 
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I wish you "bulls" would put your money were your mouths are and start BUYING!! At least we'd have some action. As far as I can tell, that's why you hate FUD...because you're so easily shaken in your faith. Sell everything and buy bitcoin. You shouldn't even have a computer right now. It's depreciating anyway. Aren't you in reality, losing money based on your delusions thinking? Or is it really just all talk?
Come on. Stick to your FUD and stop bringing discordance to the forum. Did you sell those XRP's for that outrageous price you were asking btw?  |
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Is the same thing happening right now? Interesting stuff... Expected. Only coinseeker would sell if the US says "Bitcoin is bad". Normal people will just buy all the coins they can with their fiat and transfer them to their wallets  Leaving jokes apart, all this is quite bullish for BTC. Despite of MtGox's fuck up, it's a fact that main BTC exchanges are trying to comply with regulations. And the sheriffs that busted LR say clearly that they are NOT after virtual currencies if they abid to FinCEN rules: http://www.davidnews.com/2013/05/liberty-reserve-laundered-6-billion.htmlThat's the sheriffs press conference, listen carefully from minute 28:00 I want to make clear that today's actions does not mean that we are against virtual currencies And you can see how the guy is implicitly referring to BTC, saying that it's ok if the exchanges are registered as MSB's Thanks for the link. I like how he starts off - "This might be the biggest international money laundering case..." NO - HSBC 8 billion and Wachovia 100's of billions. And he went on to say "To the contrary, mobile and internet based financial technologies, including virtual currencies, have great promise to empower consumers, to encourage the development of innovative financial products and expand access to financial services. In fact FinCen issued guidance in March 2013 to bring clarity and regulatory certainty to businesses and individuals...." " Those offering virtual currencies must comply with these regulatory requirements and if they do so they have nothing to fear..." |
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Yes as is typical. I'm sure the news stories will come out that proves their point. Something like "I did apply to use LR but due to having no criminal record I was refused."  Fun to watch criminals act legit (since the inception of governments). And it is even more fun to see them being squeezed lately. Enjoy the fireworks once they start and enjoy a much better world, but it will take some time. Much better world? Well ask from legit peoples like me who lost their money for nothing. It might be funny for you but for us and others who lost their money it's not. I am not american and at the end i just want to say. Fuck you american govt. Stop forcing your fucking dumb rules on us. Funny for me? What on earth are you talking about? Read my post a bit closer... |
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Ah, the Land of the Free After all, only criminal terrorists want to bank anonymously.
The charges against Liberty Reserve are vicious, to say the least. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network claims that the service “is not designed for legitimate use,” and that it is “designed to facilitate money laundering and illicit finance.” Currently they are just claming not proving. Yes as is typical. I'm sure the news stories will come out that proves their point. Something like "I did apply to use LR but due to having no criminal record I was refused." Fun to watch criminals act legit (since the inception of governments). And it is even more fun to see them being squeezed lately. Enjoy the fireworks once they start and enjoy a much better world, but it will take some time. |
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would be interesting to know the figures of bitfinex bets, but anyway - options work with 2 parties, so if the volume is low on gox it will be low on bitfinex too i bet. the liberty reserve thing is majorly blown up by the us govx. they state that $6 billions where "washed" over lr, ... i suspect that sum is just the total business sum, because i doubt they are able to properly separate legitimate trades from "washing"-trades, besides that only a judge can tell in a verdict which sum was illegitimate. but it will make ordinary people stay away from anything resembling e-cash for a while- so low volume ahead. i find the way the prosecutors present their case quite entertaining, just like if they would have won over evil. but looking at it from another perspective one could almost just as well state that lr was a succesful implementation of hawalla ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala) in the digital domain, and so a super cool startup company working really well with cool guys on top, sort of sugarberg etc.. talking about hawalla, i hope bitcoin is "hawalla 2000" Ever been to court and have a prosecutor read their "recommended sentencing"? I thought I was in the wrong court! Seriously, they speak like they get training from a corrupt government - oh wait... Good point you brought up and it crossed my mind. They are trying to propagandize something to be much larger than it probably was. Amazing, HSBC can admit to Laundering 8 billion in drug cartel money, Wachova can do 100's of Billions, and nothing happens to neither. The good thing is that most people know that now and it will probably effect what we are more than likely about to go, or get pulled into... |
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There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.
Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking? There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime? You should write children's stories... Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work. Looks like I may have been right though... Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest. Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be... What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events. You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong. My bad, I thought the "eheheh" was enough to show I was playing with you. Just having fun... |
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Mr_random - Just trying to put BTC and LTC on equal ground, you would have to say BTC has 1/4 the number of "shares". What is the current number of LTC's now? Use that number and give us the data please.
I don't disagree with the rest of your post, that is why I'm just asking for ideas here. Specifically to the point of my post (title).
BewCrewFan - Agreed, something might take off. What is the next Black Swan???
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A. I think the Betamax/VCR standards fight is relevant here. Betamax was the better technology but it didn't win out in the end. By the same token, Bitcoin may be the better technology for the storage of value and payment processing but it has fierce competition in the form of every government and existing payment processor in the world. I'm not saying it can't be done, but I do find it unlikely given the information to hand at this stage. As I understand your argument, you think Bitcoin will succeed as a result of organic/grass roots adoption. That's certainly possible. I would counter that by arguing that it is much more likely to be coopted by TPTB if it begins to make significant inroads.
B. On a long term view, I agree that the USD is heading for another significant devaluation. That's no surprise as other countries have become more competitive and the US has responded by frittering away much of its balance sheet on silly wars, bailouts, regulatory capture, reduced investment in research and real education, etc... Whether or not that occurs with a whimper or a roar is another matter. I'm more inclined to the whimper school of thought as education has been watered down to such an extent that the general populace is unable to understand what is happening. Moreover, the media has been captured by various special interest groups who put out their own propaganda on each event.
How does the above relate to bitcoin? Clearly the "out with a bang" school of thought allows for a system reset -- although at great societal cost. Should it go that way, I agree that bitcoin would have a chance of becoming a larger player in a new order. It's just as likely that the US would outlaw all crypto-currencies for legal tender and just issue the "new" Dollar though.
In the case of "out with a whimper," I could argue that Bitcoin might evolve as a successful micro-payments system that could infiltrate the larger economy. Unfortunately, I don't see that development is heading this way yet. People are still working on wallet security, scalability, the crypto/fiat interface (exchanges), etc... with an eye towards competing with other payment processors in the first instance and acting as a long term store of value in the second instance. To me, that looks hard as there is a lot of competition. However, taking a small slice of a large existing market is often viewed as more likely to succeed than trying to create an entirely new market.
C. With respect to regulation and Bitcoin value, I think the current regulatory actions are less important than the investment(s) by VC firms in maintaining bitcoin's value. People are placing long-term bets on bitcoin and there isn't a lot of liquidity to sop up that level of demand right now. It's also thinly traded -- think penny stock dynamics here. Now whether these are smart bets or not is another matter. VC's pumped a ton of money into solar and look where that got them...(so far).
As you said, it's complex and there is no simple calculus here. Thanks for a fun conversation.
A. I agree with you on the Beta example, but I would apply it to BTC being first (and maybe not the best), much like VHS. (But the porn industry was partly responsible there I hear.) Actually, I think if BTC succeeds it will do so because it is the quickest way currently to save businesses and people lots of money in fees. It is moving forward as we type with a fair amount of VC money behind it. It really has a huge advantage there. I do agree that TPTB will make a fight out of it. And BTC was technically designed for that. We have to do our part. B. It is scary knowing that traditionally a way out of hyperinflation is war. And when you look at the US situation and them assisting in Syria, wanting to get in Iran, etc. it is worrying. Luckily there are cool heads in the military with families and they don't just "listen to orders" so to speak. Agreed on education. If you want to find the root causes there is an incredible incredible podcast regarding the makings of dumbing down education. (titled Ultimate History Lesson with John Taylor Gatto). Hour 1 of 5 - http://podbay.fm/show/170612809/e/1318190220 Here are the 5 video on youtube http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL463AA90FD04EC7A2 If you ever give it a listent, PM me and tell me your thoughts. I guess in the end BTC might just be the catalyst to change and in that we "lose" our "investment" but we really win then. On the other hand it succeeds and we win 2X, 3X, etc. over. C. It is interesting, if we weren't worried about governments/banks getting involved here, we would have a sure fire success, game changing thing. But we will have to "fight" for it. Funny, I've thought of the penny stock similarity before, but you got to say it's a global one. Likewise, thanks for the fun conversation... A lot of that around here. |
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Wrong.
Mt Gox operates from Japan (this is not a US state, in case you were still unsure)
This means the Japanese authorities would have to cooperate with the US extradition orders and subpoenas etc. That won't happen. Costa Rica and Spain will give up the Liberty Reserve people. Japan won't be giving up Mt. Gox, or at a least not without an inordinate amount of backdoors arm-twisting. And when you look at both the political and the public sentiment towards the US in Japan lately, you'll realise that's also pretty unlikely.
For those that can't read, attempt the bolded text. You need to know what the argument is before you try to refute it. What is interesting when one considers Japan, it has essentially been a US colony since WWII. They are now practicing Quantitative Easing at the behest of the US Federal Reserve. So, I do wonder how much they can be influenced by the US. One would think a lot. But, BTC being anti-fragile (see my sig), just makes us stronger... |
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Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?
No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows. Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%. How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.) If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange... IAS |
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I get the feeling that more people are seeing the value of BTC as being the primary driver of this industry and are scaling back on their speculations in alt coins. (Of course this also might have something to do with the relative stability of BTC.) It also doesn't help that we are having a high influx of alt coins, sort of watering down the alt coin market.
Until an alternative crypto-currency comes out that is REALLY better than BTC, I just don't see some of the past valuations holding up. (Hey, even VHS won out over the superior tech in Beta.) Regarding alt coin valuations, let's take the main alt coin in Lite Coin; it is right around $3 per LTC currently. Bitcoin is at around $129 per BTC. Considering that there will be 4X as many LTC shares as BTC shares, then the current valuation of LTC, at a ratio of 10.75 (=$129/12) seems reasonable if not a bit high considering that at this time LTC doesn't really have anything associated with it outside of being an insurance of sorts. Yes it is faster than BTC and also uses an interesting and CPU/GPU friendly proof of work scheme in scrypt. My point is, we are not seeing anything that appears much better to the thousands involved in this community.
I like some of what the other alt coins have to offer, but they seem like ideas in which can perhaps be integrated into BTC, not replace it. I love what Namecoin does with its decentralized method of hosting DNS and notice that its price has been relatively stable, while some of the other coins I followed have been dropping. I wonder if this is a part of a coming trend or just related to the "stable" times.
Comments? I'm not trying to say I know, just presenting an opinion here.
IAS
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There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.
Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking? There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime? You should write children's stories... Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work. Looks like I may have been right though... Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest. Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be... |
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Maybe you have some trouble to grasp the concept of very scarce a non-inflatable currency.
Yeah, and perhaps onecoin truly is the most expensive coin ever.  Scarcity principle doesn't apply without the proper demand. There will be proper demand of Bitcoin regardless of it being legal or illegal in the US, I can guarantee you that. See, this what you continue to repeat (and imply), but you have not proven it at all. "Growth potential" as you called it ≠ the guarantee of massive demand in the future. And the "hard math" based on difficulty -- no possibility that bitcoin simply becomes unprofitable to mine? But if you argue adoption you are essentially arguing that companies of all sizes, as well as people, don't want to save lots of money. I just don't see that being a possibility here. BTC can and will save lots of money to everyone involved. That is why it will succeed. I wouldn't worry to much about thinking "Will people use it?". They will be enticed to use it in a variety of ways. Look at the Bitcoin store that offers electronics at prices lower than Amazon. What does that make Amazon think? Other retailers? Our worry is governments/banks pretending to be regulators. That is why we must play our hand right and not blindly say "yes" to anything that gives us acceptance. We are in a position of power as the current system looks like it might be failing... |
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