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1681  Economy / Speculation / Re: BITSTAMP eXchange wall Observer. second biggest and best exchange on: August 09, 2013, 07:50:22 PM
This just makes me so happy to see:


BAMMMMMMM!!!!   Will be an interesting few weeks, months....
1682  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [OPEN] - GROUP BUY of BITFURY Chips + DRILLBIT SYSTEM mining assembly on: August 09, 2013, 07:28:10 PM
I am looking at this as a way to expand on the ASIC miners that I'll probably end up receiving later than this stuff ships!

I am going to be running my rig off a Raspberry Pi, usb hub and CGminer

Will I be able to run my current ASIC set up of 20 Burnins & 2 Klondike 16s and the Drillbit off the same hub, having them all hashing away together using the same worker?



I'm in the same boat. Some day (or rather month) I'll have a Burnin 20 set up and a BFL. Can we run them with a Drillbit? If not it's not a big deal, but nice to know.

I think a lot of guys are open to something new, especially in light of the ongoing Avalon and BFL debacle. It seems like a nice system you are working on, just a question of profitability with the difficulty rising so much. Has anyone run numbers on the December difficulty and profitability?

IAS
1683  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: Incoming Avalon News 8/9/2013 on: August 09, 2013, 06:53:07 PM
Hey Sebastian,

I think the vast majority of us are behind you. You seem like a really good guy from my dealings with you. I can only imagine the amount of work you have gone through.

Yifu though, he probably has something coming. If the Mafia or the like are after you, do you not seek help? And why wait a month to get back to us all with "good news" that is not good news? I'd get things out there in the public and real quick. We don't know the story, but Yifu's last comments are not encouraging.

We should probably spend some of our GB money on making sure whoever is guilty here, pays the penalty.

Thanks for your help and hard work,
IAS
1684  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: ? BITSTAMP SEPA account flagged ? on: August 09, 2013, 06:38:53 PM
I'm thinking this is a total non issue as nothing more has been said. If we had a "systematic" concern, we'd be hearing it from many people.
1685  Bitcoin / Group buys / Re: [Group Buy] Avalon ASIC Chips (SebastianJu) Batch 6 ordered (Closed) on: August 09, 2013, 05:26:56 PM
Thanks for the post Itod.

I am in batch 6 and will go through with it. I don't want to put Sebastian or Burnin out as they did nothing wrong. The culprit here (unless there were really some Mafia stuff involved) is Yifu and/or Avalon.
The story needs to be put together and the guilty party(ies) identified. Lots of money here, so I'm sure that will happen.

What is the consensus on what happened? (I haven't gone through other threads).

Thanks,
IAS
1686  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: [Work in progess] Burnins Avalon Chip to mining board service on: August 09, 2013, 12:00:06 PM
the good news is, when our miners arrive ther will be no need to update them anymore  Wink

I was wondering that. Mine are probably a couple months away, depending on the Avalon debacle.

So, future Burnin Mining miners will not require firmware updates? (I ask because I am running Mac, no windows in the house though there is an Ubuntu box)

Thx,
IAS
1687  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 08, 2013, 08:35:55 PM

I agree we needed a drop to get people to start buying again. But I don't think a $5 drop is anywhere near enough. Many people out there were expecting to see 50 on the last drop and we never made it there. Not saying we do this time, but with the dead volume before the drop, it looks like interest (outside of wales) at these levels is not that high.

What do you use to determine someone as a whale? or (wale)?  Because someone doesn't buy 2k+ at one go on gox doesn't mean they're not interested in bitcoin and have a bunch of cash they'll use to buy btc or invest in btc related companies?

This thread makes me want to bang my head against a fucking wall.

You should really not be offended by others opinions differing than yours. And, don't let words get to you. We all have different perspectives.

To your question - When you see orders coming in for more money than most of us make in a quite a few years (e.g. $500,000) = wale. No matter what the chart looks like, they can turn the market. BUT, they (obviously wealthy people) are using TA for their entry points.

If the price isn't moving up, there is no interest at the moment. Do you want to argue that? OK, I think when there is interest the demand goes up as does the price. I don't have much money but I've tried to buy things in BTC. I've put some money into mining (mostly to help the cause, and really just hoping to break even). So, I think I get the "invest in btc related companies" part.

What I was saying is the small guys don't move BTC much. They have to act in tandem to do that. But one or two big guys can move the market and do. What I think is that they hope their large buys get others jumping on board. But that hasn't appeared to be the case lately. That was my point in a sense. Weird that you reacted the way you did.

1688  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 08, 2013, 05:55:15 PM
Wednesday, August 22, 2013
$124

You do not believe we will touch 99?


hmmm,

its a good possibility,

if we don't break below 100 today, i'd say the mid term looks crazy bullish.
if we do break 100 today, mid term will still be bullish


this dump is what the market had been waiting for, the more coins we can get here the better, soon we will climb a little higher ( spike to 120 stable 110 ) and wait for more dumbass bears to sell coins.


I agree we needed a drop to get people to start buying again. But I don't think a $5 drop is anywhere near enough. Many people out there were expecting to see 50 on the last drop and we never made it there. Not saying we do this time, but with the dead volume before the drop, it looks like interest (outside of wales) at these levels is not that high.
1689  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 06, 2013, 09:23:42 PM
The DDOS, together with removal of some bid walls to plunge the bid sum, and the multi-selling was a clear attempt at creating panic, but it failed miserably. Guess its Up for the short term.


Yeah, some people with lots of money on Gox, put up the walls, then hit the servers with DDOS, then pull the walls, and hoped for a sell off.

The question is, why put the walls back up? Was it a test?
1690  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 06, 2013, 07:51:30 PM
Stupid DDoS and dump attack. To succeed they should have DDoSed MtGox while NOT dumping on MtGox but on Bitstamp.
The market depth there is much smaller and they could have dropped the price by 8$ with the same amount of BTC required
to drop 2$ on MtGox. Now when the spread between MtGox and Bitstamp would have been 16$ instead of the usual 8$,
what would many of us think? Let's dump on MtGox while I can get in front of others, 8$ drop is a big deal.

Dumping on Stamp won't have the same effect. If they can hit the "leader", they can knock everyone down.

The good news, if they did try a DDOS, they failed pretty miserably. Anyway, we are down a little but still in a trading range.

What next?...
1691  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 05, 2013, 06:18:13 AM
New Gox announcement:

https://www.mtgox.com/press_release_20130805.html

Still issues with withdrawls

Yes. Lots of good news, but significant gaps, like no mention of how the FinCen MSB registration process is going, or why accounts with several banks are not up and running. Do all their banks have the same trick of hanging onto deposits for 7-10 days??

did not mention anything with withdraw at all!!!

Wow, this is new. Interesting bank... (Good news with Akamai though...) - read rest of release.

Quote
Deposits and Withdrawal Update Finally, the issues with deposits and withdrawals from Mt. Gox are being relieved, but still not at the rate we want. For example it currently takes up to 10 days to process a deposit because our bank, upon receiving deposits, notifies us of the deposit but holds them for 7~10 days before transferring them to our account. This has always been the case, and we were still crediting customer accounts before receiving the funds ourselves, but some cases in which the bank subsequently rejected the deposits meant that we incurred significant losses. The risk is now too high for us to credit accounts prematurely. We are in the process of forming relationships with new partners, banks, and taking other steps -- hopefully we will not only be back where we were before we encountered these issues , but much further ahead.
1692  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 04, 2013, 07:29:30 PM
2880 at 105..see if it sticks

And 70 BTC between that wall and 104. Why would someone put a buy at 105 for 2800 when they could at 104?
That is clear manipulation...
1693  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: August 04, 2013, 04:50:04 PM
We have got some potential excitement coming this week. As long as what I will write is, understand, this is still pretty simplistic. I'm not going very deep, just throwing out some ideas.

First, remember, Uranus is coming back over the Midheavan (which relates to work). It is it's second pass so generally not as strong. It will be exact on August 23rd, so things should build to then. But, synergistically things look to be building this week.

On Wed - Fri (August 7-9th) we have Venus conjuncting Saturn (Govt, regulations, physical reality, structure, etc.). It also will oppose Uranus (the disruptor, shocker, rebel), as remember in BTC's chart how there is a TOUGH opposition between Uranus and Saturn. Now, Venus is a quick transit but it adds a bit of grace where ever it goes and considering the tough opposition in BTC's chart, I'm wondering if it will be the beneficiary of some good news. Venus is in Scorpio - That is depth, that is killing/transforming what is no longer needed. It brings something nice to those government structures (Saturn) and adds a bit of ease to BTC's explosive nature (opposing Uranus) - I hope! Also, venus is in the 3rd house, that is symbolic of what Mercury represents, so it adds what I am going to state below to this transit. (Mercury is symbolized also by the 3rd house and the sign Gemini in the astrology I studied.)

Also, relating to the above "Good News" perspective we have Mercury moving out of the 12th house (Sa/Sun - Aug 10/11 and on for a bit), conjuncting the Ascendant and then of course going into the first house. Mercury is about communication, how we (BTC) process information, etc. Well, it's coming out of an internal processing time, spiritual time (12th house) which also might have brought some difficulties to the surface. When it hits that Ascendant, the way we see BTC, in a communicative way, thought provoking way, might change. Further as it goes through that first house (the self) communication might come to the forefront for BTC. Mercury is in Leo and that is about self expression, ego, etc. - this just adds fire to what I've already said in a sense. The world will see BTC strongly as it goes through Leo and through the 1st house. The problem is, that on the 10th, give or take a day or 2, My Gann chart looks to be hitting significant resistance. TA or astrology... who wins here?...

So, we have 3 transits happening around the same time, all could be argued to deal with communication, public perception (via the government), etc. I consider this Auspicious but we are all learning how BTC reacts to transits.

We still have Mars and Jupiter going through the 12th house, so are defenses might be a bit down and naivety up, but let's see...

1694  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 04, 2013, 12:06:06 PM
This is all about does Paypal believe that bitcoin will be huge or not. If they do, then they should become new Gox. This would be good.
Isn't there a better thread for this?
PayPal would shift from "engine for Bitcoin scammers" to "big man on bitcoin campus" in the minds of many.  That "good will" might be worth something.  They would also benefit from the carry trade in a way that they don't with USD or other fiat.  They were once deeply innovative, and sought to change the world in the way that Bitcoin is doing so (in the Elon Musk, Ken Howery days, both of whom like Bitcoin).
http://www.mainstreet.com/article/money/investing/paypal-founder-invests-bitcoin

Paypal, with its lobbying heft, may also be sweeping the market clear of the less compliant to make room for it to plop itself down in a clean space in the market.  There is much about this that makes sense, but it assumes a combination of sagacity and shrewd cunning on the part of folks who are keeping their cards hidden.

Some VERY good points. Thanks for sharing that.
I really do wonder about PayPal being a deciding factor AND being able to, in a way, do with BTC what they once hoped for with Pay Pal (but were regulated out of being possible).
Its about sharing
1695  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 04, 2013, 09:33:41 AM
Companies don't have to want BTC at this stage.  Let them take their fiat.

But when they start seeing the option to pay their suppliers in BTC they might look further.  It is only AFTER mass adoption that most merchants will want to accept it directly.  They don't want to be speculators, but if it can cut costs they might consider holding some briefly.  PayPal could give Bitcoin quite a bit of momentum in that direction by accepting Bitcoin payments for conversion to the recipient's local fiat for all accounts.  They already have the legal team with the most expertise in internet payment and currency conversion regulations.  They could leverage their unique capabilities, but they also know that they can time their entry because any other entrant has to spend a lot more time and money deciphering and meeting regulations.  Just because they will be ready to throw the switch doesn't mean they will just yet.

It's not like Paypal is going to reduce its fees.  I just don't see what benefit a business has to accept BTC over fiat, via PP.  if they are planning to do some Ripple-esque type deal where you can pay someone with BTC and they can receive USD, that would be cool.  Still expensive though.  If that were the case, it would be smarter to just plug into Ripple directly and do it right.

Perhaps a bit separate a topic, but worth noting:

Where I see Pay Pal ruling is if they became an entry point into BTC. If they became the new Gox then the government would probably get it's regulations followed. I'm not saying I want that, but Pay Pal has the infrastructure and such to get BTC rolling. It would help BTC's growth and accepted immensely. Perhaps we'd then see that killer app. It would cost Pay Pal some of their business (and eventually maybe a lot of their business) but they would also have a foothold in a new economy (but for how long? e.g. - decentralized exchanges, etc.)
1696  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 04, 2013, 09:27:47 AM
Its going up!
I feel it in my bones,
I know that ask wall's bout to blow

Several indicators are looking good, but not great. To really go up we need the 1.0 - 1.5 million $ that are not seen
on the bid sum at MtGox. So right now it could be just a flash in the pan.



Coming from a neutral perspective -
If someone had $1,000,000 in their account to buy BTC's on an exchange would it show up on the bid sum? I don't think so. When we see those large market orders made (e.g. since $65) they came out of the blue I believe and weren't there as walls on the order books.

I just think we have to be really really careful looking too much into the order books as they are constantly manipulated. That said, I do use them, it usually does help to observe trends.
1697  Economy / Speculation / Re: wow, bitcoin's astro birth chart is full on! on: August 04, 2013, 09:23:45 AM
For the week of August 3, 2013
Your Week Ahead - Love Focus: In the game of Monopoly, there's a 'Get out of jail free' card. How strange, given that this board game is supposed to emulate the transactions and exchanges of daily life. None of us can really claim such an exemption. Even the rich and powerful can't stay above the law forever. Who, now, is using you as their ace in the hole? Ought they not to be taking responsibility for their own decisions? How will they learn if they never take the consequences of their choices? It may not be wise to be too forgiving now.


For Monday, August 5 2013:
Even the world's most gifted clairvoyants don't waste their powers on mundane matters. A psychic, wondering what might be available for breakfast, won't go into a trance. They will just open the cupboard or the fridge. Esoteric arts and supernatural gifts are best employed in situations where all other, more obvious, avenues are closed. Much the same can be said about miracles. Too many of us wishing for one of those when all we really need is a good idea. Getting what you need this week, will prove easier than you imagine.

Had to look up what it means, but, an ace in the hole means "an advantage that you have that other people do not know about".



Thanks for sharing Vokain. I'm curious where you got these from (or how you created them) and were there any references to planets in particular? I ask because applying general "personal" readings to BTC is a bit of a tricky thing. In addition, when one looks at BTC's birth chart, you can see planets that I would term critical. Now, when these planets are involved in transiting the birth chart or are hit in the birth chart during transits, general interpretations go out the window. Sort of like how I gave more importance to the Sun in BTC's transits, when for most people, you wouldn't even mention a transiting sun (only the birth sun hit in transit.)

Now you got me curious about this weeks transits, especially in light of some TA people have been mentioning on the forums. Hmmm....
1698  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 03, 2013, 09:44:01 AM
The GOX thing, one can argue, is increasing buying pressure for those "trapped" there. I don't know, I feel like I'm walking on eggshells though and don't like it. Too much work in front of the computer.

My rationale was that yes, the bullish volume might be relatively increased as a result of that factor, but overall volume would still be suppressed because people do not want to put money into Gox, the former de-facto place to send your money if you wanted to purchase bitcoins. With the removal of their market role, I would guess overall volume decreased as people find they don't want to put their money into Gox anymore, and start looking for other places to find it.  Bitstamp's volume is steadily increasing I've noticed.

I whole heartedly agree with that. People with money there now might be feeling the only way out is to buy and transfer coins out. If you don't need the money, you just keep it their in Fiat and hope Gox is legit.
But, as you said, the overall effect is that Gox is probably getting less new money (at least from people like me and you). Those huge huge buys up from $65 was new money imo and the large recent buys continue to be new money. Perhaps big money knows Gox is ok?...


I'm not familiar with EW, but I can comment if you give more info on it?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics


Basically, at least how i understand the principle, trends move in a 5-wave count fashion, due to fractalized psychologies. A five wave count can either end with a ABC corrective trend before continuing the trend the count was on, or, it can start a new 5 wave reversal count.

My hypothesis is that on the way down to 65, we had the end of a downwards 5 waves. Right now, we are facing the question whether or not we are finishing an ABC corrective trend, or beginning a new count of 5 waves up (of which we would be in wave 3, confirmed by passing 115). This to me looks like a head and shoulders pattern if it plays out, and a failure if we finish out an ABC pattern and continue heading back down.



I will refrain from reading that now as my head has too much "Gann" in it.  Wink But I appreciate the link.
I follow what you say and have seen others on Tradingview mention the Elliot Waves in the same context recently. The consensus is the same as yours - Up in all probability. The volume, I think, is the deciding factor but we'll see this next week is my bet...

I see your update and think I follow you better now. Funny pattern duplicate, eh?
1699  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 03, 2013, 09:11:08 AM
Though it is a long shot, perhaps the low volume is simply a result of the current exchange market conditions suppressing volume?

Just a hypothesis, although what would like a HnS pattern would fit with my current elliott wave count/guess (reversal of a down 5-wave count into a new up 5-wave count)


here's a little  rough sketch i did yesterday
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gxn7wES1/


By market conditions, do you mean the GOX fiasco?
The GOX thing, one can argue, is increasing buying pressure for those "trapped" there. I don't know, I feel like I'm walking on eggshells though and don't like it. Too much work in front of the computer.
I look forward to buying and holding and doing something better with my time in the near future.  Grin

I'm not familiar with EW, but I can comment if you give more info on it?

EM - Fair point, I think, in other words a bounce is going to respond to often resemble a H&S pattern. I guess we can argue that about all the patterns. They all represent shifts in energy to a point. Cup and Handle is also a build up. All the candlestick patterns...
1700  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: August 03, 2013, 07:40:16 AM
For the bulls:

It's a longshot, but we might be in the mother of all head and shoulders:






The plot thickens...  Wink
Very good spot! Strong resemblance




Not being Bullish or Bearish, just looking at the pattern and volume - The volume pattern is not following what is normally expected. We'll see:

Quote
The head and shoulders pattern can sometimes be inverted.  The inverted head and shoulders is typically seen in downtrends.  (What's noteworthy about the inverted head and shoulders is the volume aspect.  The inverted left shoulder should be accompanied by an increase in volumeThe inverted head should be made on lighter volume. The rally from the head however, should show greater volume than the rally from the left shoulder. Ultimately, the inverted right shoulder should register the lightest volume of all.  When the market then rallies through the neckline, a big increase in volume should be seen.)

http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm


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