So it's a run on Gox then ...
A 20%+ risk premium over the other main USD exchanges would certainly point in that direction. MtGox 24h Volume: 46280 BTC Bitstamp 24h Volume: 11791 BTC Makes no sense, you don't cash out of Mt. Gox by buying bitcoin rather than by waiting a month for a USD wire.
Do the math, if you're a whale with that much buying power you have let's say at least 100k USD on gox.
So if you'd like to "cash out", you'd have to buy @ ~$115 (let's make it easy and ignore the slope). So you get 100.000/115 = 869.57 - 2.61 (0.3% Fee) = 866.95 BTC.
Now you transfer them to an other exchange (Bitstamp) to cash out to USD (again we ignore the slope which is even higher @ bitstamp), so:
866.95 * 99.98 = 86677.66 - 260.033 (0.3% Fee) = $86417.63
So you just lost $13582.37 because you didn't want to wait a month.
/€dit: Looking on the volumes of the recent rally and the fact that there was a single 1500 BTC buy order taking down the $115 wall, I think it's safe to take those numbers * 10. I suspect people are more concerned about getting their money out at all, than just waiting a month. Why else would you pay a 20% premium? If you were buying coins now, you wouldn't be wiring funds to Gox and paying a 20% premium. The only people who would pay that are those who (unfortunately) have fiat funds there waiting already. Also, Gox would be for traders. Try trading on Stamp, it is hard. You could keep your coins on Stamp and trade with some on Gox as there is the action. |
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For future reference, trying to understand the recent move up, I can only surmise the following:
On August 14th, the Sun moved into BTC's 2nd house (A fire sign). The 2nd house is often thought to be about money. The sun was key during BTC's last bubble up, and also in a fire sign (Aries). It is nearing the end of Leo (Aug 23), but will be in the 2nd till Aug 30th.
Uranus is only 7 minutes from retrograding directly back over the Midheaven. Will be exact on August 23/24. (See above regarding that date.)
Jupiter square midheaven also. A bit of a rocky push to personal success... (Volatility)
Jupiter just started yesterday opposing BTC's sun. That is like adding energy to it, expansive energy. The Sun is key with BTC. (Exact on Aug 29th) - aaahhh, that date again.
Small - Today and tomorrow Venus is opposing BTC's moon - a bit of emotional upset here.
We might be in store for an interesting 2nd half to August. Not a lot of BTC's available on Gox...
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It no longer makes sense for the customer to take the brunt of the risk when the majority (or close) of customers are looking at not even breaking even.
I don't see them being able to finish with the back log by end of September and didn't they say by end of August anyway?
Now, on top of that, how the heck are they going to Ship Monarch's before they finish with prior orders? Oh, I know, they won't build them in house. That is a nice convenient excuse.
I can't do this just on principal.
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Yifu I know you are very busy but any update on the status of the refunds requested over 1 month ago would be most appreciated. Thanks
Avalon honours refunds  I thought you just have to wait for the chips when they are ready to ship... In a week or two, it won't even be "break even" time, when you consider assembly, etc. Avalon had better address this. And BFL is close to being in the same boat. Makes me wonder about the prices rising on GOX. An investment? A connection? They just got bought more time... |
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16 USD gap
LOL
$20 gap. That's fucking ridiculous. My guess is one of these exchange services is intentionally creating the gap so they can force their clients into taking a lower valuation. Now we go from elation to worry. Nice to see the price on GOX go up and on HUGE volume/buys, but when there are crickets elsewhere, it is very very worrisome. So, they got their coins, but do they want to risk a 20% loss of funds? And the slippage can turn huge as the other exchanges probably can't handle that volume. Or do they just hold? It has been the latter for a while. I don't see large sells at the other exchanges. Sort of like people are saying FU to GOX. This is a bit like all the chip sales from Yifu's Avalon scam/debacle (which I unfortunately got in on the smaller side), the writing is on the wall... |
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Thanks. Ill repost this in german thread... we arent hit so bad like others yet but nonetheless the difficulty beats us the same. I didnt foresee that the diff will rise so fast and im very sure no one other did. We are closing to a point after which chips will not be able to ROI. If I remember right if they start hashing after second week of September they are not worth in BTC what will be invested in them + assembly. That means whoever gets them in the next 10 days is lucky. I wonder what would be better news - a) Avalon started to ship batches or b) Avalon started to do refunds on chips. Now it depends if you already payed for assembly or not. At this point a refund might save them some face. Then we can start the lawsuit and "they" get to pay for it... |
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Looks like we are going up and in more than one way (TA, bid/sum, etc.)
And something to think about, as Mining is getting bigger and bigger (bigger money, players, etc.) one has to consider that the miners (companies?) will and should also invest into BTC. Yeah, that sounds odd,
mining coins and not selling them and yet buying coins. But big money has to support itself IF people do not. Not saying that will happen, but it happens in many business models, in the sense like look at Amazon, how they sold books at little to no profit to get things rolling.
100% agreed my friend, many indicators say we are going up, only uncertain factor is the distortion of the price cause by Gox problems with withdrawals. Glad I bought back at 101.9x 30% of what I sold at $129, now wondering in which spot to place the next bid... $105ish? Thinks are getting interesting nevertheless. Welcome back! It looks like we have some support at 111. Using Gann, I'm seeing a move to 120-130 or so. Right about then it looks like a rising wedge might be completed, but I'm not convinced of it as this move looks strong (and some big pocketed players like to "create" patterns imo). You can see my Gann chart below. You really have to follow it to see where things end up. Last target, if we don't break down at that double red ring, would be the outer double red ring range. Both charts are working nicely so far. For what it is worth, 105 is too close to my entry point and support on the 4hr, I'd be careful there. Not saying don't do it, and you are a good trader so would know when we get there, but with Gann, my stop loss is basically where the chart starts and that is within $1 of it. Daily - https://www.tradingview.com/e/2Rh6HJ0Q/4 hr - https://www.tradingview.com/e/xLPCriqP/# |
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The hash rate can't possibly increase by 50% per month forever. it would require exponential growth in the hash rate.
[...]
how does no one realize this?
all the people posting calculators showing this hashrate increasing at 90% per month and extrapolating a constant increase are not taking this into account.
It does not have to grow exponentially forever. It only has to grow 60% per month for 12 months to make the Monarch unprofitable (per PuertoLibre's estimations)... And 12 months of 60%/mo exponential growth starting today is possible. In the past, we saw 18 months of 100%/mo growth between Jan 2010 and Jun 2011. However nobody can tell for sure whether the Monarch is going to be profitable or not. Assuming it ships in Jan 2014, if the average growth will be less than 57-58% per month it will be profitable, if it is higher then it won't be profitable. My estimate from ASIC market research is somewhere between 40 and 60%, but nobody knows precisely. I'd like to see what happens, how our views change, etc. when the price hits $250-$500 per BTC... Not saying we go that high anytime soon, but I have a feeling we are going up and the mining industry are partially behind it.  |
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Looks like we are going up and in more than one way (TA, bid/sum, etc.)
And something to think about, as Mining is getting bigger and bigger (bigger money, players, etc.) one has to consider that the miners (companies?) will and should also invest into BTC. Yeah, that sounds odd, mining coins and not selling them and yet buying coins. But big money has to support itself IF people do not. Not saying that will happen, but it happens in many business models, in the sense like look at Amazon, how they sold books at little to no profit to get things rolling.
+1 Seriously, is it not obvious? How small is the market? How many millions of dollars would it take to have a large position in BTC and reduce the supply (support the price)? It is like an investment to guarantee your mining investment. Take the same logic with investing money and apply it to mining. It is a bit of a monopoly. (But, I do think that BTC will still see peoples hands no matter how high the price due to the divisibility.) I love what BTC can represent and perhaps it continues down that road. But, there are some new players in town and the game is changing imo. |
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Looks like we are going up and in more than one way (TA, bid/sum, etc.)
And something to think about, as Mining is getting bigger and bigger (bigger money, players, etc.) one has to consider that the miners (companies?) will and should also invest into BTC. Yeah, that sounds odd, mining coins and not selling them and yet buying coins. But big money has to support itself IF people do not. Not saying that will happen, but it happens in many business models, in the sense like look at Amazon, how they sold books at little to no profit to get things rolling.
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Well, that would be the cheapest cost / Gh but there is no way they deliver in December BEFORE their older deliveries are fulfilled.
Things are not looking good there.
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Now, this is interesting. The community "refusing" to do more group buys with BFL.
The new product seems great, but yeah, perhaps they should deliver to the hand that feeds them first.
RESPECT...
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Well, I'll give them this, it is a hell of a lot easier to produce that one little card than it is a whole big machine with many cards at 400Gh.
How about an upgrade of our Jalapeno's that won't make any money? Just put as many chips in that little bad boy as they can. Instead of a 7Gh Jalapeno, how about a 12-15Gh one for the same price?
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Next gen that comes from Avalon or BFL... BOYCOTT. Here is your chance. BFL just announced 28nm pre-orders. I am sure Avalon will too eventually. Interesting. You want to know what would help BFL right now? If they started to upgrade certain orders delivered a bit late. Like barely profitable or unprofitably late. Just an idea and it won't cost them any more unless they got the old chips stacked up. Any links? |
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Or, I might get angry because the Christmas present I wanted to give my wife is stuck in some sorting office somewhere until after New Year.
How we chose to conduct ourselves when we face adversity is what defines us.
What a great thought! I've faced nearly overwhelming adversity in my life. And it faced it with dignity and courage, if I do say so myself. Yet I still get mad if a Christmas present I ordered arrives too late, or if someone cheats me out a couple grand worth of bitcoin hardware. It's nothing compared to what I've already faced, but yet I get angry. It's funny how people are... Thanks for the reminder  Now I just need to keep reminding myself: "How we chose to conduct ourselves when we face adversity is what defines us." I see it as helping others. I don't think it will be fair to others to let this slide. When you have a certain knowledge, acting on it to help others is morally obligatory. I find that is where we are. |
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I say we use some of the refund money (or other) that will be coming back for legal action. Has anyone looked into this?
Yifu ignored phone calls, messages, etc. The mafia was involved or whatever the story, but yet he logged in again and again leaving no messages. His actions have guilt written all over them.
I'll apologize if I'm in err, but the writing is on the wall regarding his inaction.
IAS
Suggesting we use the refunds to engage in legal action against the company issuing the refunds seems like a less-than-ideal motivator for the company to actually issue the refunds, no? Well, we can use our own funds if need be. And perhaps others throwing in their suggestions would assist here. The thing is, do they want to dig a deeper hole? I mean they aren't going to say, "Sign this paper stating no legal action and then we will give you your money back." That is almost admitting guilt. If anything like that happens, we need to "reach a settlement". A punitive one. But I'd rather involve a lawyers. Can't believe I just said that... I'm in this small time but feel bad for the people who put lots of money in. Something should be done and I worry that if people just settle for refunds it gives the message of "It's ok to fuck the customer". After all the worst that happens is they give us back all that money and keep the highest bidders money. It is like the 1 billion dollar fine levied against Wachovia or HSBC for hundreds of billions in drug laundering... They must be thinking "Sign me up..." |
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Chase bank called me over the past 3 transfers i sent to bitstamp. They warned me specifcially about bitcoins when calling. Not sure if i mentioned that here or not in the past.
Until my account was recently closed i was sending 10+ wires a day and never received and verification calls except for bitstamp (and those transfers were not out of the ordinary for me....value wise).
Wow, that is strange. I guess this is, in part, to be expected when dealing with the established banking system. After all, we are competition to a point, though I don't think huge competition as BTC isn'T about a lending model, which is where banks make their money I think. I think fees from transfers (where BTC will rule) is not a big deal. The big deal is that the banks will lose control of BEING IN CONTROL of money. The banks are the stranglehold on many things. If you are not in their network (certain countries), you can effectively be blocked out of international exchange - well, it makes it harder anyway. |
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I say we use some of the refund money (or other) that will be coming back for legal action. Has anyone looked into this?
Yifu ignored phone calls, messages, etc. The mafia was involved or whatever the story, but yet he logged in again and again leaving no messages. His actions have guilt written all over them.
I'll apologize if I'm in err, but the writing is on the wall regarding his inaction.
IAS
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That's just comparing individual chips though. Comparing the more important ratio, hashes per dollar:
BitFury 400G: 400GH/s for $8000 = 50.0 MH/s per dollar (Rasp Pi included in price)
Drillbit Board: 16GH/s for $300 = 53.3 MH/s per dollar (plus the cost of the host computer)
So not that different really. Plus you don't have to fork out a whopping $8k straight away. The power efficiency of the 400GH/s rig is also a bit lower than the Drillbit boards, moreso when you compare using the more power efficient stock 2GH/s rating of the Bitfury chips, rather than 2.7GH/s.
It is great, the value in MH/s per $. The problem we will all be facing is the difficulty level. 3 of the best/deepest predictions are looking at a December difficulty of 200 million, some as high as 500 million. If you consider the compounding of the difficulty, the ONLY way to break even is if the price goes higher. http://www.coinish.com/calc/#I do think the price is going higher, very much so by the charts and buy sizes the last month or so. (Large players are moving in - big buys.) I'm looking hard at the Drillbit system. Lot of bang for the buck. |
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BOOM !  Right at the end of a descending triangle ... these big buyers are certainly looking at TA and timing their trades accordingly. That was a make or break point. Could have gone either way. Someone wants it to go up ... First thing I noticed as well. We learned this on the move up from $65 as well... |
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