I had an order to buy some BTC back at the 200 WMA, I think it was something like $22222. First I assumed it was the bottom but it clearly is approaching $20K very fast.

With the way that ETH went straight thru it’s old ATH I have a feeling that Bitcoin might also. Seems there are no buyers at all. Crazy that it was over $30K just a few days ago.

Wonder what Wednesday will bring with the fed news.

ETH is below its 2017 ATM. And all this due to the stETH depeg. If this was a bull market it wouldn’t of been a big deal but on a weekend when liquidity is low it’s crazy how fast it has fallen.

If the stocks have a bad week, you can see it fall closer to the $1000 area. Most likely won’t be the bottom. Too much bearish news out lately and I wonder when we will get some relief. The CPI numbers certainly made things much much worse.

Honestly it’s one surprise after another. With Luna failing who knew we would get another catastrophic even so quickly.

Basically it depeged, but it seemed like FTX was buying all the stETH and then all of a sudden we see BTC withdraws sent from Celcius to exchanges and then an announcement of frozen withdraws.

Seems like MtGox part 2. Not looking great.

They stopped saying it’s temporarily like 3-4 months ago. Now the markets are going to see what happens on Wednesday and see if a 75bps hike is going to happen.

If a 75bps hike is on the table then the markets will go down further. Because many are going to get out of risk on assets into more safe havens.

The way it’s looking it seems best to stay cash and be able to buy stocks and real estate when they are cheap when the market finally bottoms.

Well i guess I was wrong I figured it would trade sideways or at least make it to the low $30Ks however it broke the yearly low just now.

It seems with the massive CPI and the mess with Celcius network, many people are panicking and just exiting crypto all together. Many people think are recession is near so they want to cash out with what remaining money they have. Scary times are coming.

Yeah in a bull market almost everyone you follow will make good calls. However how are those calls working out for you now. Most likely they stopped posting due to a string of loses.

Unless you were short in stocks or crypto you most likely lost money in 2022. So far it’s a brutal year and it seems we are nowheere near the bottom.

Most people you follow now don’t make money.

Well that was pretty quick. Bitcoin already broke the yearly low. At first with the stock market dumping and Bitcoin holding steady and later with the ETH dumping due to the stETH mess, it seemed like BTC would hold however…

When Celcius stopped withdraws and sent like over $100M worth of BTC to exchanges… people knew it was game over. Feel bad for those holders who wanted to make extra % by staking their BTC only to lose it all.

Remember Not your keys  not your coins.

I have a feeling that this week when we check eBay, Craigslist, Facebook marketplace we are going to see a large supply of GPUs hitting the market.

With POS approaching closely and ETH taking a huge hit and trading under the 2017 ATH I think many people are going to call it quits earlier to get the most out of their GPUs.

Happens every time whenever a bear market just becomes an even bigger bear market.

Basically there is a very low unemployment numbers and with high inflation numbers last Friday. It means the fed needs to be more aggressive in its hikes. It’s already speculated the next hike will be 75bps.

They need to destroy demand and need to start to reduce employment because the tight job market is one reason why inflation is getting out of control.

Needs to do this quick before things start to get out of hand.

It’s not the reason why it crashed.

Last year we all knew that fed would raise rates to combat inflation. Everyone knew all the crypto and stock markets would peak.

People are basically getting into safer risk off assets and Bitcoin is considered an risk on asset like stocks. Hence why it highly correlated with tech stocks.

Bitcoin is not the only thing that dropped.

ETH still dropping on all this stETH drama.

If you pull up a monthly chart for ETHUSD on Coinbase you will see that it almost touched the ATH from 2017. It was only off by $10. The low was $1430 and high back then was $1420.

Seems like a great price however, honestly don’t think it’s a good area to buy. Most likely won’t hold and might come closer to the $1000 areas.

Don’t know if you guys are paying attention to ETH. Basically there is some illiquid staked token called stETH which has depegged from ETH.

This is a token that should be redeamable for 1 ETH after the merge or 6-12 months after. And it’s causing a crisis right now for ETH.

Some large holders like Celcius own a lot of this token and they are about to become insolvent. Also the way Defi lending works, some use stETH for collateral and if the depeg keeps dropping it will set off a huge liquidation of many assets.

ETH is going down again, into yearly lows on a very illiquid Saturday.

Not looking good.

I also knew $100K wouldn’t hit however I didn’t think $69K would be the top. Since we had a $65K top prior and it looked like it had more room to run, it seemed that the top would be anywhere in the $75-85k area. Which would also be the $100,000 per BTC in AUD and CAD currencies. Would of sold everything there but unfortunately never hit.

It’s a shame that we had conservative targets and neither of them got hit. I actually also assumed that $50K might be the top so sold a bunch at like $49.5K.

Either way, nothing you can do now.

It’s hard to say. Today and yesterday were pretty bad days for the stock market. Ethereum also had a bad day breaking the yearly low. Bitcoin however seems to be doing pretty good relative to both.

Seems that there is some large bidder who is constantly buying Bitcoin. Look at the BTCUSDLONGS on Bitfinex. The whales are all buying.

It’s possible we might see those figures however a lot depends on how the fed plays into fighting inflation which is spiraling out of control.

In the US we might be in a recession, we won’t know until the GDP numbers are released. However the way I think it works is that if there is a negative growth, that means the recession started on the beginning of that period and not the end.

The way things are right now most likely it will be negative and recession will be confirmed. The rates are not raised fast enough and unemployment is just way too low. Low unemployment means lower productivity and higher wages and higher inflation.

Yeah when those CPI numbers came out and shortly ETH started to dump, I knew today was going to be the day it broke the yearly low and it did. The yearly low was $1700 and it’s still below that figure.

8.6% doesn’t differ too much from the last 2 results but the fact that it rose 1% in a single month when the normal rate is 2% for the entire year is very worrying. Most likely 75bps rate hikes on the next fed meet.

Ask yourself this. If this person is so great at making predictions why doesn’t he just trade himself. You got 100x leveraged exchanges out there so there is no need to borrow money these days.

This is proof why many of those signal services are scams. Because why charge people $20 a month when they can make millions from trading themselves. Makes no sense but people keep falling for this.

This topic reminds me of a miner back in the day. He had an account on bitcointalk here but I forgot his nickname.

Either way. This was when everybody was mining BTC with those USB sticks. So he had hundreds of these USB sticks. And he would mine in his living room and open the window for ventilation.

One day i think he got some complaints about the blinking LEDs. Basically they were more than 1 LED per usb stick and he had like 100 of them. So every second like 300-500 blinks per second.

It annoyed the hell out of some neighbors at night and he was told to shut it off. If anyone remembers the guys name post it here.

The reason why many don’t stay calm and make rash decisions is because they are over invested. When Bitcoin topped at $69K everybody assumed it would go to $100K. So every dip people bought it. Many bought at $60K, $50K, $40K…. And now we are around $30K and people are starting to get nervous being down by 50%.

They are the ones that don’t stay calm and if there is another dip they will most likely sell the end the pain. This is usually how bottoms are formed.

Many whales are calm because they dollar cost average. Look at the Bitfinex whale. Every dip he buys and never sells. Will most likely keep buying until $15-20k or so.

In bear markets generally the market caps are always overinflated. And the opposite is true in bull markets. For a mid cap coin, it doesn’t take much sell pressure to decrease the market cap by 10-20%.

In bull markets it’s different. Usually dips are buying opportunities and it’s difficult to bring down the market cap too much. Markets are more liquid and harder to move. Now it’s the opposite.