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2521  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 04:26:58 AM
-multisnips-
Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.


Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).
2522  Economy / Speculation / Re: [WO] Stupid bulls with a cult-like mentality. It’s a bubble! on: March 14, 2021, 03:41:28 AM
But they can never say that they weren’t warned to cash out into real money while they still can.

People don't like to hear it around here, but fiat currency is the safest, best currency in the history of human science. Economists and myself have proven this by pure mathematics techniques. I'm grateful I cashed out long ago and have sound money safely stored in good stock investments and secure fiat cash in a safe modern bank account earning low, but safe yields for my future. Bitcoin is a failed technology and a dangerous house of cards confirmed on its way to zero.

You are right as usual. I have seen bitcoin add quite a few zeros...  I think we should see a couple more before it's over.



I can add a couple of zeroes to the number, but then the number becomes simply unfathomable.

not just Satoshi, but relatively late converts like Winkelvoss twins become the richest on the planet, MSTR has a market cap equal to TSLA or FB; Proudhon's mound reaches to the near earth orbit, etc, etc.
2523  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 02:21:57 AM
Gurl, YOU are the one who is bearish-always selling when btc goes up and accumulating useless fiat,

That's bearish?

Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so? It seems to me that such a system only works if the underlying asset goes up. It could even be argued that mere use of this ladder implies fundamentally bullish beliefs (number go up). Otherwise, there would be no need for "suicidal buys" on the way down to zero.

Care to explain?

while I mentioned that i would not sell bitcoin (probably ever).

I think I see what you mean here. There are other, possibly more sophisticated ways to put the corn to work - for example, arbitrages or option plays - which however often imply ultimate movements that are essentially sales, or very akin to sales - but I digress. How, if even, does this imply that the more intuitive system is "less bullish" or even "bearish"?


I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.
Bearish in a sense that JJG personal goal seems to be fiat accumulation, so he/she is bullish on fiat, bearish on bitcoin (as a final destination).
I prefer the opposite, slowly selling my fiat in lieu of btc. Not 100% as Raoul Pal did, but close enough. Since I am still drawing fiat salary and don't spend too much, cash flow is not a problem.
Real assets (farm land, properties, timber) to me seem the only use for selling btc, but even then, such sells are probably not needed anymore as soon (maybe already) you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs. That does not include additional strategies that you mentioned (selling covered options). Any illusions about lasting fiat value should have evaporated last spring with 25% increase in money supply in one year-again Saylor is very eloquent about it.

As far as tactics, yes, he/she thinks that this is a bullish posture (to sell while asset goes up and buy when asset is going down), but it is an erroneous approach, in the final analysis.
This does not work in a vast majority of cases, believe me, I tried (not in bitcoin) and have scars to show for it.
Only an extraordinary btc mechanics allows for this approach to have some chance.

Additionally, casual pressing "I am rich as fuck"-to me this sounds somewhat cringe-worthy, maybe only if you are a Mansa Musa reincarnation, and even then, but I digress, maybe I am too old school for the TikTok/Instagram/Snapchat age. Besides, on some subreddits such claim would require mod validation. Not here, though, which does not add credibility.
2524  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 07:47:09 PM
bitcoin (and others) got it's own QVC channel with crawling tickets:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2RZRAM8vgo

^ This looks toppish, but could continue for a few mo, hopefully until Oct-Dec.
That guy moved from some restrained vids to this in search of more subs.
A bit cringeworthy, but not a complete top.
Monitoring for a top, but the signal is still at yellowish green (no top yet).
2525  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 04:49:10 PM

2341

You can take them all out for the day (fucking & sucking included) on your yacht for a good price in 2021 when we hit $100,000 per bitcoin.

To the moon bitches!

I'm going to hold you to that.

It's very rare when all three visible both components are perfect (t-component, a-component and face (f)-component).
In fact, maybe there is some women's "uncertainty principle". See the very right one for an example.
F-, T- and A- 'perfection' factor multiplied can never exceed a certain constant.
Here is your math and science on the topic  Cheesy
2526  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 04:43:51 PM
here is masterluc/pentarhudi:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

He was misfiring on short term targets lately, admitting to that, longer term look solid.
However, i don't get all this talk about a new crisis. We are just coming out of one and about to have a growth spike.
A new crisis might happen later in the decade, but I don't see it soon, albeit higher inflation is possible with a caveat that deflationary forces (technology) remain as strong as ever.
2527  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 04:18:17 PM
Makes me feel weird, all these rich latecomers, and then there's me working on free software without anything in the bag.

But I still love you WO!

Hey, sometimes it is not about a thing, but a new arrangement of things.

Maybe it is a case of opulence, but someone bought Beeple's collage for $69mil (that's a lot of sats, potentially).
For those who don't know: Beeple is a person who produced 5000 art pieces, some say over 13 years (ostensibly, some are simple doodles), then combined them in a digital gallery in one humongous image, then sold it for $69 mil to some "crypto" dude from Singapore.

Posting this without respect to "value", which might not be there in the underlying case (in somebody's opinion), mainly to outline the main thesis: something new can emerge from a combination of prior works.

$60k has been hit. Who else is eyeing $69,420 as their next target?

I will probably set up a small limit sell at that price so that I can look back fondly at this milestone in my order book when we reach the moon.

nah, 75-80K, maybe even projecting to 100K or a tad below, then down to 40-50K (depending on where we peak, probably 45-50% from the top), then a final hurrah to the top of the cycle: 150-500K (I favor ~200K).
A double hump, rhyming with 2013 and no "supercycle", everything as usual.
2528  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 06:17:10 AM
Honest question for WO.. Obviously I'm not 'murican so I've no idea what it's really like over there but.. how many of the people getting stim checks are actually spending them on things like bitcorn? How many people are actually struggling with moniez and will have to use it for every day stuff?

Asking for a friend

this is a good question very hard to answer.  But I will give it a shot.



We do not need the 2800  and yeah we will qualify for the 2800.

We have zero debt we have 3 guaranteed retirement checks we have a 401k and we have BTC + (some shit coins)

I will put the 2800 into gpus to mine shit coins to get bitcoins. Today I ordered a 1919 USD gpu to mine eth to directly convert to BTC

I have 35-50 friends in the 40-65 year old age group 3 or 4 of us are into BTC we are all doing well enough to not need the check.
The other 30-40 friends need the checks and will not be buying btc.

I find in the older than 40 group the ones using the money to buy more coin already have coin and do not need the money.

I find the ones needing the money never were into coin in the first place

See highlighted. How?
I keep looking for any 3080 or 3090 and NOTHING.
A very stupid situation because i need it not for mining, but gaming.

I listed every
 3090
 3080
3070
3060ti

on best buy
on evga
on b+h photo
and do the newegg shuffle.

so today after 30-35 tries on best buy since oct i grabbed a pny model for 1799 plus tax.

it has been next to impossible to find them close to retail price since Jan. 1



Good for you, I did not make much effort, but will not overpay 2-3X on ebay.
2529  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 02:19:59 AM
Fair enough! However, asking my question here was perhaps the wrong forum to do so, as I don't expect the average american to sit on bitcointalk with a small fortune in corn already.. Read some article saying half of adults in the US couldn't afford a $400 emergency buy or something crazy like that?

Yes, a lot of people run on fumes. Thus my thought that this could be used to get out of the junk trap. Which would be a good thing overall, we spend far too much money on things of little value.

Will be worth watching over the next year or two.

That $400 sounds like a bs number, but maybe it is driven by the fact that there is not much point to have a large bank account that pays zero in interest.
It's probably a mixed picture. Some young people lost jobs, moved back in with parents, saved on rent and saved almost all stimmie and UI.
There are a lot of savings since people with steady income did not spend much, which would move into economy by the summer.
The demand will be crazy. I expect inflation to pick up as well. Whether it would be temporary or not-who knows.
IMHO, now is the time to plan those 2022 vacations.
In our neighborhood some people are selling houses for cheap. Again, imho, they will be sorry in 12-24 mo.

2530  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 02:05:04 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXS0rzf4iYo

KoKo’s last message to humanity.

- Nature sees you and Nature will remember.

watched the vid...

- Nature sees you. and Nature will remember Thank you.
Please do not bolster your agenda by misquoting, thanks.
2531  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 13, 2021, 01:24:31 AM
What is that FLOW crap on CMC.
A hack or a typo?
2532  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 11:56:28 PM


an interesting thought, but then it ended somewhere else in place and time ("Simulation hypothesis").
2533  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 11:34:08 PM
Honest question for WO.. Obviously I'm not 'murican so I've no idea what it's really like over there but.. how many of the people getting stim checks are actually spending them on things like bitcorn? How many people are actually struggling with moniez and will have to use it for every day stuff?

Asking for a friend

this is a good question very hard to answer.  But I will give it a shot.



We do not need the 2800  and yeah we will qualify for the 2800.

We have zero debt we have 3 guaranteed retirement checks we have a 401k and we have BTC + (some shit coins)

I will put the 2800 into gpus to mine shit coins to get bitcoins. Today I ordered a 1919 USD gpu to mine eth to directly convert to BTC

I have 35-50 friends in the 40-65 year old age group 3 or 4 of us are into BTC we are all doing well enough to not need the check.
The other 30-40 friends need the checks and will not be buying btc.

I find in the older than 40 group the ones using the money to buy more coin already have coin and do not need the money.

I find the ones needing the money never were into coin in the first place

See highlighted. How?
I keep looking for any 3080 or 3090 and NOTHING.
A very stupid situation because i need it not for mining, but gaming.
2534  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 11:08:58 PM
Bitcoin, flying cars, New Hampshire...

https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/libertarians-want-to-make-new-hampshire-a-flying-car-mecca

To me, it sounds cool.
Maybe when btc is 500K  Wink

NH (at least from May to Sep-Oct) looks better and better.
2535  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 06:52:13 PM
Are we in one of pseudo-stable periods for btc?
It is possible, but honestly, I don't get the hesitation at 58K, it's a number of no clear significance.
Maybe it harks back to the 53K number, which is a $1 tril market cap.
Obviously, we are over that one, but not by much.

OT: It looks like NVAX vaccine is 96.4% effective in the UK trial. It will probably be approved soon.
This is a more conventional vax, no mRNA in the composition.
Overall, much better than AZ.
I am not sure why they only tested in UK.



this level we are now is about 3 times of the old ATH.

Old ATH is above 58K in Feb, 20K is old-old ATH, which we traversed long time ago.
Still, it generally follows S2F so far.
2536  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 06:37:11 PM
Are we in one of pseudo-stable periods for btc?
It is possible, but honestly, I don't get the hesitation at 58K, it's a number of no clear significance.
Maybe it harks back to the 53K number, which is a $1 tril market cap.
Obviously, we are over that one, but not by much.

OT: It looks like NVAX vaccine is 96.4% effective in the UK trial. It will probably be approved soon.
This is a more conventional vax, no mRNA in the composition.
Overall, much better than AZ.
I am not sure why they only tested in UK.

2537  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 06:56:13 AM
Good Morning WOvians...

I thought we go up to a new ATH this night, but we go down a little... But today ist the day, where we went from ATH to ATH Cheesy

Btw. Yesterday I found out, that here in germany they made future trading basically impossible for private citizens.

Since this year, you can only remove max 20k Loss from your gains. All above doesn't count for tax calculation. You can take the rest to the next year, but you can only remove it from gains in future trading, not other income.

One example:


Loss: 30.000 €
Win: 40.000 €

Before 2021 easy: 40k - 30k = 10k and 25% taxes on it.

Now: 40k - 20k (max) = 20k and 25% taxes on it.

Now imagine future trading with leverage has sometime many more the these numbers.

This is highly unlawful (constitutional). Hope they win before court, but this takes time.

So the only way to gain more coins is to stake or to buy the fucking dip.


I am amazed. Germany outlawed losses [yes, I get it, more than 20K].
That's insane, sorry.
In US you could have 10bil gains and 10bil 3K losses, and you can subtract 3K, but ONLY 3K max a year, a ridiculously low number that did not change for decades (or maybe ever).
Around here, they compound something very fast when it is in their favor and never update something that goes in the opposite direction.
Well, bitcoin fixes this.
2538  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 01:27:13 AM
How many acres total now?

Getting up to near 140 acres now.


I read a whole Wikipedia page and all I learnt is that you own 124 football field.
Given the fact I have never saw a football field (as football is the wrong name for the wrong sport, over there), still, I don't know how much land you do own, but I guess it's a pretty big garden.

Well done!


Repeat after me : An acre is the area of a rectangle whose length is one furlong and whose width is one chain.

ha, ha, apparently 140 acres is 0.566 sq km for the metric-oriented..I was born into the metric system, water under the bridge.
I suppose doubt that it is much less 124 football fields, though.
2539  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 12, 2021, 01:12:58 AM
if someone (he) calls himself a bunny and shows a female face as their avatar, that's just not nice as far as gender identity signaling is concerned, but, whatever, Jayjuangee could be a female too, for all I know.
However, I found a reason for my thinking about bunnies and females (apart from that english link):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Playboy_Bunny

Playboy bunnies got stuck in my head...that's why. Those bunnies were not men for sure.
However, I would henceforth refer to @JJG as 'she' to balance the equation...The "lady" doth protest too much, methinks.

I will henceforth refer to Biodom as stalled.

 Tongue Tongue Tongue

girl, please arrive at a point that has any significance.

That one surely has significance.. cannot you even remember your own proclamations about bitcoin being stalled at the top of the price range.. and you cannot remember how ridiculous your own statement?

I am just sticking with your own unable to control ur lil selfie bearish proclamations and using them against you.

That is all.


Actually, now you seem to simply make things up.
The search with "stall" of my posts comes with nothing-all I can see is your two tongue twisting posts.
Gurl, YOU are the one who is bearish-always selling when btc goes up and accumulating useless fiat, while I mentioned that i would not sell bitcoin (probably ever).
Is that bearish for you? Opinions on movings up and down are just that, comments. I don't try to buy the dip because I am already constantly buying.
Report some nice land or another property purchases like others did-then, we would are talking some sense.
2540  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 10, 2021, 09:24:47 PM
^ & ^^

Thanks. I used coinbase-pro for reference. Kraken should make more sense in that regard.

EDIT: Just registered me and wifey for SARS-CoV2 Antibody test (happening in about three weeks). Hopefully we can circumvent vaccination and restrictions this way.
Had a strange cough last year in february, lasted 3-4 weeks.


ahem...these 1.5-2K vertical dips are kind of annoying.

COV2: Maybe, I had the same notion (having something in Jan-Feb), but the test was negative (although I have to data regarding the validity of the Ab test that I took).
In any case, it is not clear how long the Ab from prior would protect. Could be 3 mo, 6 mo or 12mo, it is currently unknown. I intend to re-boost by next fall or winter, if it would be available.
Once a year seems reasonable, similar to flu vac.
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