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One interesting conclusion from this is that fiat money really has no value if someone can switch your money/assets off any time they want (even with justification).
You can breathe air and drink water that you have around you, but you cannot use money, which is an essential life commodity.
Interestingly, when on a gold standard, gold was universal currency, even for enemies.
Not sure what to make of it, but it is now clear that China realistically has no money (apart from their gold reserves, probably).
I am not prepared to say that bitcoin is such currency yet, maybe not due to low (currently) acceptance.
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Seeing scattered early reports that they are going forward with locking Russian banks out of Swift.
Steady as she goes.
goes where? to a bigger war? We should have pushed hard for negotiations, instead, even now, before the severity of this goes to something incomprehensible with very large casualties. Additionally, if you have a large fine, levy or reparations applied to Russia, how are you going to get paid? This will only make them completely belligerent and not prone to any negotiations. Before, they said that it (SWIFT disconnect) would be considered as a declaration of war. Not sure what to make of such statement made in the past, we shall see now how it develops. Shortly after SWIFT removal, I would be watching for the signs of the general mobilization there, and if it happens, then SWHTF. |
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Nobody here 'really' knows what is the situation in Ukraine, probably. I watched sky news, looked at the websites and all I can find, basically, is that "the fight continues". Of course, it is all quite terrible. Here is an interesting perspective of where this is probably going, but with HUGE caveats: https://www.newsweek.com/2022/03/11/putin-has-never-lost-war-here-how-hell-win-ukraine-1682878.htmlThe longer it continues, the higher is the probability that it won't stop there. Are we in 1938? A am not sure. |
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Russia is a communist shithole, every (political) opposition, activists and journalists are geting killed and/ore arrested.
Remember Alexei Navalny (a good Russian), which Putin tried to kill but survived in Europe? When he came back at home he was immediately arrested with years of prison time which means Russian justice system is rotten to the bone.
Even Memorial Human Rights Center is banned...you know...communism and human rights does not go hand-in-hand.
You got your metaphors all wrong. Putin is absolutely not a commie. He is an ardent autocrat (authoritarian) with russian nationalist tendencies to boot. There is not a sliver of communist ideology in his proclamations. In fact, he always besmirch Lenin (who was an 'internationalist' and commie #1) in his speeches as well. Watch his speech made before the invasion if you want. This is a critical distinction, but does not make him any better, of course. TL;DR Putin=authoritarian nationalist In January 2016 Putin publicly criticized Lenin. But he didn’t criticize Lenin for being a communist. He criticized Lenin for “providing regions with autonomy.” By doing this, Lenin “planted an atomic bomb under the building that is called Russia and which would later explode.” This explosion took place in 1991 and led to the breakup of the Soviet Union. Putin was not criticizing Lenin’s communist ideas. He was criticizing Lenin for causing the breakup of the Soviet Union. opinions can differ, but here is how Wikipedia describes communism: "Communism (from Latin communis, 'common, universal') is a philosophical, social, political, and economic ideology and movement whose goal is the establishment of a communist society, namely a socioeconomic order structured upon the ideas of common ownership of the means of production and the absence of social classes." Nothing of this fits, unless you call anybody from that area a communist, like a majority might still do (long memories). You can call Vlad an imperial-builder or a tzarist (maybe he even want to eventually declare himself a tzar, I give it 50:50), but he ain't a communist. No siree. Drudge even posts that he wants to 'rebuild' the Christendom-check it out. I seriously doubt the latter, but he DOES want to rebuild something like a former Russian empire. That's a given. |
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Russia is a communist shithole, every (political) opposition, activists and journalists are geting killed and/ore arrested.
Remember Alexei Navalny (a good Russian), which Putin tried to kill but survived in Europe? When he came back at home he was immediately arrested with years of prison time which means Russian justice system is rotten to the bone.
Even Memorial Human Rights Center is banned...you know...communism and human rights does not go hand-in-hand.
You got your metaphors all wrong. Putin is absolutely not a commie. He is an ardent autocrat (authoritarian) with russian nationalist tendencies to boot. There is not a sliver of communist ideology in his proclamations. In fact, he always besmirch Lenin (who was an 'internationalist' and commie #1) in his speeches as well. Watch his speech made before the invasion if you want. This is a critical distinction, but does not make him any better, of course. TL;DR Putin=authoritarian nationalist |
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@jjg...please, develop some reading comprehension skills...i am sad that bitcoin still goes down "first" (not like gold, for example), but it recovers among the "first" as well, that was a gist of my post. You can be f-g irritated or not, I don't give a damn, pal.
It seems that investment populace still does not fully believe in a 'store of value' proposition, but i have one better: 'a hedge against insane policies', but this one might be controversial and apply only to the 'third world', albeit Canada showed something new recently.
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why bitcoin is the weakest link among stocks, etc., though?
idk
it surely goes down fast at any sign of trouble....then recovers fast, of course.
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Russia is Blitzkrieg'ing ALL of Ukraine's major cities. I changed my mind on Putin, he is kind of a dick. (even though WW3 is the result of the USA meddling in foreign countries all these years for their own national interests and pushing Russia into a corner)
Taiwan will be soon taken by China, mark my words.
Looks like WW3. Not even joking.
hopefully, not, but who knows. |
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Good time to finally dump that gold and pick up bitcoin on sale.
man, that gold thing is truly old school...a hunk of metal. |
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bitcoin always goes down first....because it trades 24/7.
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Don't forget to make a wish at 22:22 tonight...obviously many regions had passed it already. Apparently, making a wish at exactly this time means something. Wish well  |
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This massive downward pressure is something else.
Gut feeling indicates possible bigtime recovery to new ATH's by late March/Apr.
Crossing fingers.
An interesting opinion...out of the mainstream, but would be super cool if it happens. |
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#LNMETA
Closed all my channels. Shutting it down.
Given everything going on in my life, managing a LN node is more negative, parasitic energy that has complicated my life beyond any rational measure.
I need to step away, for my own mental health and sanity.
There is no bot that can balance the channels? I am not touching this until I either retire or there is such bot/AI-lite, whatever. |
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Here is some 'dubious speculation' as Ben Cowen calls it:
In 2018 we first moved to an approx $6.2K plateau (from the $19.78K peak), which was about 68.65% decline from the top.
Then, we precipitously declined another 50% to bottom out at $3.1K.
This time, we did not have a blow-off top.
Assuming that btc decline to $42K plateau is Stage 1 (39% decline instead of 68.65% decline in the prior cycle), then, adjusting Stage 2 for the magnitude of Stage 1 decline, gives me approx 25% decline to about 30K as a worst case scenario. That said, we already traveled to 30K and even slightly lower, suggesting that we are already in a long term consolidation. Down to 30K is possible, but, unless something goes horribly wrong, it should be it.
Not going to speculate on upside because there is basically no limit now that we are mostly out of 4 year cycle dominance and into, hopefully, usage dominance.
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Regarding the idea of countries splitting into smaller municipalities..the trend is certainly in that direction.
Whether it would be formalized as depicted in "Snow Crash" or not remains to be seen.
I read an interesting article about how people are moving to stay with populations that are 'more like them'.
I find it fascinating in a bad way and indicating that people are not pursued by new ideas, instead, they cling to the old ones that they heard mostly from MSM.
Then, they make decisions to reinforce their current ideology even more.
IMho, something is broken, and it seems that civil society is falling apart, at least at the margins.
Remember that after the Roman empire there was a long period (on the West) where everything was fractured.
As Petrarch wrote: "My fate is to live among varied and confusing storms. But for you perhaps, if as I hope and wish you will live long after me, there will follow a better age. This sleep of forgetfulness will not last forever. When the darkness has been dispersed, our descendants can come again in the former pure radiance."
I don't know about pure radiance, but from here 90ies look pretty good, warts and all.
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At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.
Does such a thing still exist? With rock-bottom interest rates for the last 10+ years one would have to be extremely special to have an ARM. you are right, now only 2.6% of all mortgages or something similar, but will probably increase as we go to 4-5% on 10 year treasury (2.5-3% first, though). Not many people would be able to afford 5-7% mortgages after the home price increases US had. In 2000 we had booming economy and 8.5% 30 year mortgages, but the house prices were a small fraction of today's. Inflation back then was relatively low, though. |
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At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.
However, bitcoin is trading as if it is owned mostly by dumb asses (present company excluded) and not sophisticated investors.
Never forget "It's the marginal idiot that makes the price" (John M. Keynes about bitcoin) brilliant... |
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At some point adjustable rate mortgage people would be majorly screwed.
However, bitcoin is trading as if it is owned mostly by dumb asses (present company excluded) and not sophisticated investors.
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75% of Canada approves of what the Trudeau administration is doing? God, I hope not.
Most Canadians do not approve of invoking the Emergency Act. Most I've talked to think they went too far. That's good to hear. Because it is worse than going too far, in my opinion it is a horrifying precedent. 75% of Canadians think the idiot truckers should go home.
They made their point. Sure they had some public sympathy at the start when it was still a peaceful protest. After they disrupted a major city making thousands of people's lives miserable, then blocked international trade costing billions of dollars, support quickly dwindled.
Once you've gotten the message (or given it), hang up the phone.
This, however is a place you and I will disagree. I do not think there is any evidence that they have been heard. Trudeau has seemed to ignore them entirely. Calling them fringe extremists, white supremacists, confederates (lol?) etc. There has been no dialogue, so there is no reason for the protesters to believe they have been heard. But ultimately I think it is even more than that. I think ultimately they are standing for more than just repealing mandates. They are there to stand against the tyrannical government that is exemplified by Trudeau's actions. Declaring Martial Law (which is what the Emergency Act is) and planning to seize money without court orders, and shut down protesters forcibly. So, since we disagree, I will not belabor my point as I have no desire to argue. But here is the ultimate litmus test on whether my opinion is justified, or should be filed under the "shut up and go back to Texas" category. I believe this is all part of an organized plan that transcends just Canada (or New Zealand). We are seeing a coordinated effort to destroy western democracies and place most of the world under a "New World Order". I know you are old enough (like me) to recognize that lingo. Daddy Bush used to say it a LOT. Well, it's the same plan. But they are calling it different things now. "The Great Reset" for example. Or maybe you might recognize the marketing slogan (which is clearly on the way out): The term "build back better" was first introduced to UN at the United Nations Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in July 2005 by former United States President Bill Clinton, the Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Tsunami Recovery. -from wikipedia somewhere... They are restricting our movement, our money, our speech, and most of the other rights we Americans like to cite as "inalienable rights". One last question before I bow and walk backwards out of the room... How did they know we would have to "build back" from anything?imho, not a conspiracy...just anticipation and/or game theory. There is (was?) large leverage in the system (if i recall correctly, Lehman was levered at least 30:1, same for others). The destruction (temporary?) of value becomes inevitable at some point. Imagine short term interest rates being 8% (as they should with current inflation number at 7.5%). Quite a few companies would NGMI in this case. |
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