Some people are probably out of the "game" but I'm sure most are finding new accounts. Any ideas or numbers here (for other exchanges)?

I said "TA is great, we all use it, ..." so I'm not smacking it down and I USE IT. I think my point was clear. We don't know what BTC is, not even the government will define it for us. But you know. Maybe you should not be so touchy about a question, not even a criticism...  I was just bringing up the Black Swan nature of BTC and not asking you to defend TA, just merely open up a bit regarding the possibilities.

Maybe you can answer a simple question, what are you trending? I mean, what is BTC? Currency, Commodity, Stock, disruptive technology, protocol, etc.

TA is great, we all use it, but to overly depend on it with something that we can't easily define, is cheapening what it is that is BTC. What if some really big news comes out? e.g., Pay Pal becomes funding mechanism for BTC. What do you think will happen to the "price" of BTC?

TA has been said to basically describe human behavior (e.g. support lines). Now, since there are so many variables with BTC (see that short list above), again, it is dangerous to try to pigeon hole what BTC is.

Be very very careful over emphasizing TA and yet know when to use it.

Coinseeker, I'm not trying to pick on you, but how can two posts, two posts apart no less, contain the following:

Post 1 - I'm a short term bear, long term bull.

Post 2 - In the end, I still think Bitcoin will die or at least be marginalized to black market nothingness.

As I brought to your attention before, and as others have brought up, something doesn't make in the picture you are trying to portray (about yourself).
And to boot, after you are questioned on your quoted comments, you make statements like "I'm too smart for you son.  Please go back to the kiddie table and stop trying to pick a fight where there currently isn't one."

Can you see the problem here?

IAS

First, to be fair, you should probably quote exactly what it is your are questioning me about.

Now, my basis:

Listening to The Daily Bitcoin show, quite a few times now they have mentioned how donations using BTC is a very big use of it in general. And, they said it is growing (on their show). I know from my own habits, that for some reason, it feels good to tip using BTC. I'm not basing my statement on me, but adding weight to what they said on TDB show.

Daily purchases going up is all but certain. Taken from: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/peter-thiel-gets-bitcoin-bug
"Back in March I noted that the company was putting up mind-boggling growth rate numbers.  Incredibly, the tremendous growth rate continues as they added another 1,900 merchants in April and are currently signing up around 100 additional merchants a day."

Now, how else am I to interpret 100 new customers a day being added? I think it is pretty clear that business using BTC is increasing.

BTC as a currency is certainly being neglected by a lot of people, most notably it's speculators. But, it is also seen as a store of value, albeit a risky one (I know, ironic). I think many of us feel it's use as a currency is a given as the benefits, the TREMENDOUS benefits, are overwhelming. So, to me, it is matter of fact.

Lastly, you say I'm enthusiastic about BTC. Yes I am, but that is such an underwhelming statement to make considering what I really see happening.  
Honestly, what BTC is and once you factor in the underlying technology and it's uses, to say this is a huge thing is not enough imo. It is a Black Swan, right before our eyes and it certainly appears to be anti-fragile as well. (see my sig). The only worry I do have though is regulation/government. But my bet is they are hoping to co-opt BTC and not so much slow it down. (Oh, I can't recall right now what SR is...)

IAS

I'm a bit confused by your question. Where did I predict anything? Me not being shocked by a huge price range possibility?

Yes, I am supposing a lot, but aren't we all? And, I'm doing it in a sense of querying, searching and such. We don't know what it is we are dealing with and hence a lot of what I said. But I am not trying to say I know.

edit - to answer your question. If I see more transactions with decreasing volume, I would think that day to day transactions of BTC is taking place and that people see the current phase of price formation as an opportunity to collect, since we are seeing most sells met with buys (limiting downside). (So yes, people are collecting coins). Also, as others mentioned, perhaps early adopters, by their very nature and caring, don't want to sell into downward price movement so we have a huge volume of users holding coins on our side. Probably a relatively rare situation in "markets", where things are mostly just about money.

So, would rising transactions but on less volume be a sign of "hoarding"?

How do you equate transaction volume to hoarding? I'm not saying people are not putting coins in paper wallets, but "hoarding" sounds awfully negative.

Now, even if 90% of coins were hoarded, what would it do?
The hoarders wouldn't see any value as they would be holding, right?
The 8 decimal places (100 million bits per BTC) would make it such that all transactions could still easily take place.
Eventually, some stability would be reached in the price as the volume of full BTC trades (as opposed to fractional trades) would go down, no?

The only thing that hoarding does is add value by decreasing circulating float. It doesn't seem to decrease the efficacy of what BTC is. Actually, it just attracts more people.

I just think too much worry is placed on the hoarding scenario.

IAS

We are in an interesting phase of price discovery. Clearly a lot of coins are disappearing due to being put in a "savings account" and at the same time we are seeing more coins being used for donations, daily purchases, etc. I wonder how much the price will go up just based on more adoption via actual daily usage??? Really, that is an interesting question as Bitpay and the like are going to be doing the instant conversions so will be creating liquidity at the exchanges.

 As the price moves up (and at times violently) we are going to see people call tops and sell. Eventually, I imagine there will be a reasonable distribution, but the early adopters will always hold a portion as they believe in the greater purpose. They will further most likely re-"invest" in Bitcoin in a variety of ways - e.g., legal fund, VC, etc.

Just considering the current float of 11 million or so and the fact that the actual float is probably less than half that, I really would not be shocked at any price this year between what we are at currently and even $1000. I don't care so much about the price, but it is still a very interesting thing to consider as we are still trying to understand what this is...

I think Liberty Reserve is a factor but more a psychological one. I'm not sure we are seeing lots of LR users move into BTC, yeah some sure. But many people are seeing another "funding" mechanism closed down and there are fewer standing choices now. It is sort of like we are seeing our standing power. Really, doesn't at all seem like the government is after us. The best they could do thus far is to say, follow FinCen regulations and they shut a Dwolla funding source. (Most likely this will result in a fine and nothing more as it doesn't appear nefarious.)

I remember those "fake" ask walls, then I remember many of them getting eaten into or just plain eaten. We stopped seeing them. 

It is too early in the life of BTC for stability. If it was stable it wouldn't make any sense as we really don't know what it is. Think about that...  As we see what it can do, who adopts it, how it gets used, the power it can be, etc. then we are going to have an idea of it's worth. You can be sure it will be MUCH higher than current levels. And,  I don't say that as an investor/speculator, just do the math and integrate a bit of foresight.

Greed just won't matter as on the one hand those decimal places will always make it usable for those that want to use it, no matter how many are holding. Though, in the long run, I don't see that being a problem. On the other hand, as the value starts to go up and goes to values that don't seem possible (by regular stock, currency, commodity, etc. standards), people will sell. Those that don't sell know what Bitcoin is, but even they will sell some, because they know what Bitcoin is. To comprehend that, you sort of have to understand what Bitcoin is 

Welcome to the greatest social experiment the world has ever known.

IAS

I don't think many people honestly get what BTC can be. It is like back in the early days of the internet, but now it is ^2 . There is just too much infrastructure, ideas, technology, brilliant experienced people, etc. behind it.

The sort of ironic thing is that the valuation of BTC slips people for a loop and then they really miss the bigger picture.

I think the government, or at least those that are directing them, have already shown their hand. The FinCen "guidance" was like getting let into a club because you know the bouncers. They want Bitcoin and going forward it is not a question of if BTC survives or not, it is rather who gets control over it, whether they can co-opt it. It is just too close to a digital currency that could be used to track people and it is also close to one (with plug-ins) that can keep people anonymous.

I am pretty sure though that they are underestimating all that it is going to be. It is a Black Swan and Anti-Fragile (See my sig.)

If BTC (and it's technology) has not profoundly SHOCKED you yet, then you don't understand it. 

You have sort of grown on me. 


Looks like we have a few decent sized walls on either side of us, 128 ish and a broken up one at 135 ish.

Closing down Dwolla and LR as a funding source only inspires and sparks innovation.

Remember what happened after Napster was taken down? Enter Torrent. Well, our torrent, for starters, will be a true decentralized exchange.

We have battles ahead of us, such is life.

In Germany on Bitcoin.de the price is holding steady at 97 Euro, as it was yesterday.

It is nice to see the other exchanges not being affected, much harder to manipulate a "distributed" system. Can't wait for the real thing...

In what way big news? My first thought is that it is good for BTC as money has fewer places to go now.
Bad, perhaps one can make an argument that money laundering or drug money will come our way now, but that is true of any currency, really.

The big difference between BTC and LR, at a minimum, is you can't just shut down BTC and it is already being somewhat regulated.

Agreed, and this is the anti-fragile nature of the Bitcoin Environment at work. Smack it and it adapts. "Cut off" a part (e.g. Dwolla) and it adapts and becomes stronger. This is like the internet of a few years ago on steroids. Clearly BTC is the internet but it is layering a whole new type of technology down. Might actually be a gold or platinum bullet. 

To eventually have a decentralized exchange of sorts would be a Godsend. Imagine a "smart" internet based, not centrally controlled, exchange that acts as perhaps a bank and or just exchange system... There we are for the long haul (until we no longer use money in its current state).

I think he was being Tongue-in-cheek. The other alternatives have been getting shut down because they are centralized, in part anyway.
He meant a monopoly because the choices are getting fewer and fewer, but not due to traditional monopolistic reasons.

Was that a market order for '?' that went through?