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2581  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 07:59:35 PM
The Ask Wall is getting higher and higher on bitstamp today !   Shocked

Yeah it is! Really interesting. Why so many offers to sell above the current price?
Scare tactic or real?

And yet it is stable.
2582  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 05:20:50 PM
This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.


Very good point.  Didn't think of that.

Who are you and what happened to Coinseeker? Seriously, did you go to FUD rehabilitation or what?
Welcome, whoever you are  Grin

  Wink  I honestly just don't see anything negative ATM, other than low volume. That's not necessarily bad for Bitcoin though. The huge ask wall at Bitstamp is concerning but not sure what to make of it.  There seems to be confidence out there, lots of good news and no real bad news that I can find.  And I looked hard too.   Grin

While I think it's a coin flip at this point, if I had to bet, I'd stick with prices going up based on what I see.  That could obviously change.  

So, just a few days ago you had nothing good to say, really. What that you have observed has changed this?
2583  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 04:55:12 PM
So if I understand correctly, the volume is even more abyssal than we think?  Sad

Wouldn't services like Bitpay use some darkpools?

It is certainly interesting. I think since BTC isn't only a stock/currency/protocol/technology/commodity/etc. we might be witnessing something oddly new - just a balancing, so to speak of current demand coupled with a bit of uncertainty. I'm sure there is lots of money on the side waiting for BTC to jump up (and then they will ride that wave) or waiting for BTC to crash (and then they will try to pick-up "cheap" BTC's).

Looking at all the incredible topics at the conference (via the articles on the bitcoinchannel.com) I'm really struck by something:

This isn't just about BTC. We are entering a technological/protocol of an era that is game changing. AND very little of it is about making money with BTC. It is about:

decentralizing DNS
creating decentralized means of voting
tracking or "ledging" stock transactions/ownership (and government, etc.!)
decentralized electronic markets
more cryptocurrencies
decentralized exchanges

TONS of decentralized services - every governments worst nightmare, but inevitable.  Wink
(The cat is out of the bag and the bag is no where to be found.)
And of note here, the only real "coming down" on us by the government has been to follow FinCen regulations... UM OK!

And just from an "end user" perspective (ha ha), what this amounts to is anybodies guess, but it sends chills down my spine more and more the deeper I get into it.

I pulled some of the ideas above from this article, really a brilliant and mind opening read. http://reason.com/archives/2013/05/20/the-top-3-things-i-learned-at-the-bitcoi
This Black Swan is really a Black Swan within a Black Swan (and all participants are anti-fragile) - see my sig for definition clarification

Got off tangent there, welcome to BTC
2584  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 04:42:01 PM
This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.


Very good point.  Didn't think of that.

Who are you and what happened to Coinseeker? Seriously, did you go to FUD rehabilitation or what?
Welcome, whoever you are  Grin
2585  Economy / Speculation / Re: You guys gonna become paranoid about Ripple on: May 21, 2013, 02:39:17 PM
After going through this thread (and reading many of the other Ripple threads), something I get is this:

The pro Ripple people seem to get Ripple.
The BTC people don't seem to get Ripple.

Now, the second thing is alarming, because a lot of BTC people are very very computer literate if not IT guys. I am a bit alarmed at how Ripple is going to work with regular people in light of this. This point alone puts up my "Danger Danger" alarm and I think rightfully so. The burden of proof is on the Ripple guys and thus far I just don't see the proof.

I would say Ripple probably needs to make a lot of its functionality transparent to the end user. As of now it seems that isn't the case.

Personally, I don't like the sound of mixing "IOU's" with BTC. That just seems extremely dangerous and counterproductive.

I do see some of the point of Ripple but am not enamored by any of it at this time. A more simplified decentralized exchange seems to be in order. NOT controlled by a company.

Its about sharing.
2586  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 01:44:00 PM
Interesting...

Volume on MtGox (via ClarkMoody) is 6,000
Volume on Bitstampt (via frontpage) is 5,000!!!

Is it possible that Bitstamp is moving in so quickly on MtGox???
2587  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 01:37:33 PM
Thanks for clarifying things Rampion. I've been following the market depth at GOX daily for a month or so now. It has been looking a lot better lately. Though the depth is really an easily manipulated thing and even when it's not I wonder how valuable it is, consistently speaking (as orders are always pulled).

I'm wondering how much business is actually leaving Gox. Any ideas how much the Dwolla thing is really affecting them? I know Dwolla itself was probably not a huge funding source for them (more for small cats), but I think it scared people off Gox anyway, and rightfully so.

Anyone have any ideas on Gox here? I also wonder how much money is moving to Bitstamp. Any ways of seeing this via an order book / market depth comparison between the two?
2588  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 01:02:17 PM
Crazy selling pressure at Bitstamp



Doesn't that mean that the asks (left side) would require light volume to go up and the sells would require heavier volume to move the price due to the steepness of the slope???
2589  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 12:54:12 PM
I think it bears repeating that a stable price is not really stable at all when you consider that 3600 new coins are minted every day. It takes new money pouring in to keep the price stable.

The price is not stable as a reflection of the current economic situation. If things were fine with the dollar and Euro, BTC would be at less than $1 still. Stability has ZERO to do with 3600 coins added daily. We are talking about a market in the billions and perhaps trillions with a float of 11 million shares currently. Many would argue we need more liquidity (not decimal places) to make BTC more attractive at current prices.
2590  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 12:50:47 PM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...

There was no Cypress event.

People in Cypress with over 100k in their banks are having their money stolen at a rate of around 80% - 90% (not clear yet). Further they took 400 million of their gold (an artificially reduced rate due to the naked short selling). In addition the people of Cypress are STILL not allowed to withdraw more than 300 Euros a day. Hey mom, can I have some more money? LOL

Cypress was merely the canary in the cage falling over. Now, are the miners listening or watching CNN and seeing that the economy is all well?

I agree with most of your posts in here, but not regarding the Cyprus situation - I'm sure that the Cyprus (not Cyprees, BTW) impact on the BTC price was just speculative mania. I can guarantee you that a negligible amount of Cyprus citizens were able to throw money to BTC. You know, BTC is a lengthy process: first you need to understand, and then you start to use a little money to buy BTC. It's not an easy process, as there are both intellectual and technical barriers.

The boost in price after Cyprus was just driven by a few individuals holding fiat in BTX exchanges, who considered this was "positive" news for BTC, and started buying more BTCs driving the price up.


I am not saying the Cyprus thing is not speculative but more importantly, beyond the speculation it is a sign of economic times. This "speculation" is a bit more than mere speculation. It is based on banks failing and many more banks being on a precipice of failure. We are talking about monetary systems that have been responsible for much suffering in the world. They appear to be being challenged with BTC. I'm not saying BTC will come out on top, but it does appear to be bringing some change with it being let out of the bag.

I understand the citizens of Cypress are not buying (nor able to buy) BTC, for the most part. I would only say that BTC is a part of something much bigger and is not an answer to a problem. Rather I see it as an intermediary step to get away from centrally controlled money. We still have the problem of power via money. Baby steps...

It will take time for BTC to be ready for the masses, but we are moving quickly. Just think of AOL in the early days of the internet. It didn't take much at all. And here we are talking about money, capitalism, oddly enough, will help spread BTC...

Man, three people have corrected my Cyprus spelling, I'm really sorry guys. eheheh
2591  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 12:44:34 PM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...


Do you realize you're sounding like a doctor waiting for an epidemic just to get more patients?

Have you checked productivity rates? Real inflations rates? Unemployment rates? Economic difficulties in Spain, Greece, Italy, Cypress, Ireland, and on an on?

Your analogy has a way of missing what it is that is happening in the world around us, an oversimplification of sorts. If you don't see it then I suggest you look a bit harder. We are getting closer and closer to a tipping point, essentially that is what I see happening.

The epidemic is here, but the world health organization refuses to acknowledge it, after all the stock markets are going up!  Roll Eyes


My point is that YOU seem so happy and eager for something like this to happen

Ps. it's Cyprus not Cypress ...why do you keep messing with their name?

I wouldn't confuse happiness with a well researched expectation, due to an understanding of economics. The current system cannot continue in its current state. Few would disagree with that. I am not looking forward at all to people suffering due to an economic collapse (or the like). But sometimes you have to take a few steps backward before once again going forward. Can you really not see the world state as to not be able to put a picture together? Yeah yeah, quantitative easing (inflation bordering on hyperinflation - by definition) is going to lead us out of the bad the bankers led us to to begin with. When is enough enough?

Yeah, I know it is Cyprus, must have been many years ago when I listened to Cypress Hill - got to my spelling.

Really, when individuals care more about spelling than arguments, that is quite telling to agendas.
2592  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 12:39:05 PM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...

There was no Cypress event.

People in Cypress with over 100k in their banks are having their money stolen at a rate of around 80% - 90% (not clear yet). Further they took 400 million of their gold (an artificially reduced rate due to the naked short selling). In addition the people of Cypress are STILL not allowed to withdraw more than 300 Euros a day. Hey mom, can I have some more money? LOL

Cypress was merely the canary in the cage falling over. Now, are the miners listening or watching CNN and seeing that the economy is all well?

People might take you slightly more seriously if you could even spell the name of the country correctly.


You can't think of anything more insightful but my spelling?

So, which logical fallacy does this fall under? Am I guilty by association, na, probably Ad Hominem - Attacking the individual instead of the argument.

Thanks for your well thought out rebuttal.
2593  Economy / Service Discussion / Re: The True Explanation of Ripple for Bitcoiners on: May 21, 2013, 12:15:54 PM
There seems to be an extremely serious technical flaw which goes to the heart of an IOU trading system:

All IOUs for the same real-world instrument (BTC, USD, Gold, Oranges) are regarded as fully fungible 1:1 even though they originate from different people with different circumstances. This means that:

a) there is no accounting for expiry or settlement. IOUs are issued with no agreed redemption date. This means payers are effectively making open-ended gifts.

b) there is no weighting for the creditworthiness of the issuer e.g. an IOU for 100 USD from person X equals an IOU for 100 USD from person Y, even though person X has a million-dollar house and person Y lives in a culvert.

A further problem is social.

1) 1000 years of Contract Law
2) Ripple
3) Bitcoin

Which is the odd one out?
(Hint: two of them attempt to overcome a particular human failing...
Breaches of trust

That is a really interesting (and to a point eye opening) explanation. I have my reservations about tying any kind of IOU system to BTC. Further, the whole Ripple project seems really complex and a bit tricky - even for tech guys to get. Sounds almost like a potential Trojan Horse to BTC. I say we approach this carefully, very carefully. Get that thing open sourced and have the experts look into it. The longer it is closed, the more we have to worry.

I'm open to studying this Ripple thing more though. Bitcoin clearly needs a decentralized form of exchange at some time. I'm just not feeling it is Ripple at this point.

IAS
2594  Other / Meta / Re: Ripple trying to take over the Bitcoin Discussion thread on: May 21, 2013, 10:59:54 AM
Ripple had a seat on the 'alternate crypto-currency roundtable at the 2013 conference.  I didn't see anyone holding a gun to their heads.

"Ripple" is a system for managing and tracking account balance. It contains "XRP", which is a built in crypto-currency. It's not quite accurate to say that "Ripple is an alt coin" because it is more than that. However, it might be correct to say that "XRP is an alt coin."

But calling Ripple an alt-coin is to ignore all of its other functionality, which in my opinion is a mistake.

XRP threads go in Alt Currencies. Ripple threads go in Service Discussion. Easy. Now you know where to move your two threads. Thanks.

+1 - This sounds fair and is descriptive. As more alt currencies and other means of payment/funding/etc are discovered the board will just clutter.

I also get the feeling that people in Ripple community are trying to infiltrate the BTC community (excluding the mod ;-)

2595  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 10:35:19 AM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...

There was no Cypress event.

People in Cypress with over 100k in their banks are having their money stolen at a rate of around 80% - 90% (not clear yet). Further they took 400 million of their gold (an artificially reduced rate due to the naked short selling). In addition the people of Cypress are STILL not allowed to withdraw more than 300 Euros a day. Hey mom, can I have some more money? LOL

Cypress was merely the canary in the cage falling over. Now, are the miners listening or watching CNN and seeing that the economy is all well?
2596  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 10:33:12 AM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...


Do you realize you're sounding like a doctor waiting for an epidemic just to get more patients?

Have you checked productivity rates? Real inflations rates? Unemployment rates? Economic difficulties in Spain, Greece, Italy, Cypress, Ireland, and on an on?

Your analogy has a way of missing what it is that is happening in the world around us, an oversimplification of sorts. If you don't see it then I suggest you look a bit harder. We are getting closer and closer to a tipping point, essentially that is what I see happening.

The epidemic is here, but the world health organization refuses to acknowledge it, after all the stock markets are going up!  Roll Eyes
2597  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 09:12:37 AM


Makes you wonder what it's gonna take to get the price moving up. If this, Webmoney, paypal founder's investment, and gyft among other good news didn't do much, what do we need?

Really, it seems at this point we are waiting for an Amazon/Paypal or the like to jump on. The China news and Russian Pay pal will probably affect the volume some.

A sure fire thing, which is inevitable imo, is another Cypress like event happening. When that happens we probably don't look back...
2598  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 21, 2013, 07:55:03 AM

This is BIG BIG news, if it is true. I had imagined most Western regulators would be strong-armed by the US... and they may still might... but nonetheless this is very promising indeed. We need a sane counterpoint to the US' War on Everything We Can't Track, and we might just have it right here.



This is truly big news (again). They just keep coming and coming - that might describe the Bid rise in the charts.
The thing is, we only need this "liberal" kind of policy for a year or so - just enough time for BTC to get its foot in the door. Once it catches on... Game over!
2599  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 09:04:36 PM
Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

Those initial Chinese qt client downloaders are probably still downloading the blockchain if the internet speeds are anything like they were the last time I went to China.


Good point, hopefully they find Multibit (is it)?
2600  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: May 20, 2013, 09:02:56 PM
Do you not remember the price climbing coincidentally after that?

The price movement had already started before the Chinese event.

Since the crash, the only news that somewhat influenced the price was the MtGox/Dwolla incident.
And even then, the price movement was really lame.

Started moving but continued right? I mean we are talking about a volatile thing here. And you ignored the QT Client downloads exploding, as well as the presence of quite a few nodes over there.

Anyway, the bigger point is, How can something being shown to Billions of people in a positive light not have any effect, especially considering the times? That just seems impossible...
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