Your math is different then mine. Here's my math (screenshot below), which is crazy optimistic in every way, except for the non-overclocked, exactly as-specced hashrate. How does yours differ? I am even by December
That's roughly consistent with my screenshot above. And it barely grows past that. If I actually take delivery, I estimate I might get it in late Oct / early Nov. I'm postulating that since it looks like I won't even break even, that I should request a refund--and I'm here looking for second opinions.  Do you realize that by April you have the network at 120PH, May 240PH, June 480PH, July 960PH? This growth is unsustainable. The biggest gun out there at the moment is 2TH. It'd take 60k of them in April or 2000 a day. 120K of them in May or 4000 a day. 240K of them in June or 8000 a day. See where this is going? |
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You must have some weird definition of cheerleader. Someone who consistently defends BFL's actions and sees no harm in what they have done? Personally, I fail to see why you think BFL or any other mining equipment manufacturuing company should care less if their customers can make RoI or not. They are in the business of selling an item. If the public is so greedy to buy that item that they ruin the RoI on it, I fail to see WHY the company should be the moral compass for the public. Look at McDonalds. They must know that people who regularly eat at their restaurants are at an increased risk for obesity and heart disease, but do they care? They' are only interested in the bottom line, the almighty $$$$$. Repeat custom. McDonalds customers go back because they can get their meal quickly and cheaply. Mining customers will go back to a manufacturer if they have been treated fairly and with respect, given accurate information and receive timely delivery. I also wouldn't call BFL greedy, as they could have jacked the prices up after seeing the demand. If you want to talk GREED, then you need to point at ASICMiner first and foremost.
They did jack up the prices (doubled them) in the first half of this year. Can't remember the exact date. If that is what you call a cheerleader, you missed there... I've never defended their every action, I merely point out the other side of the argument. In addition, I never said I see no harm. I did a workup about 2 months ago as to what would have happened in BFL had shipped on time. I used very small shipping amounts and the results were that only the first 1-3% (depending on their true customer count) would have even had a prayer of RoI. I foresaw today's difficutly back in May, I was just 3 weeks early. You can thank Yifu and BFL for causing me to miss the date. You did get that one right, they did double the prices at the point they had working chips in hand and found out they needed roughly 2x as many chips. Basically when they went from proto-type to production model. I love how you guys defend AM's practice of fleecing people "because he had product in hand". $1,000,000 for 1.333TH is what AM was charging back in May. Through BFL that would have cost about 1/20th the price(1/30 if you bought before April). On the one hand you have an in the hand now ASIC that will never earn RoI vs a pre-order that has a dern sight better chance. |
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I can't believe the way you try to find ways of defending logic like this. It's hard to know for certain the time period for when most BFL orders were placed but I'm betting the bulk of them took place in 2012, given the time it has taken to ship the orders for that period. The logic that people paid fiat or BTC in 2012 to "hedge" against the price of Bitcoin between then and September 2013 is ludicrous. Another point is that you would only "hedge" if you had certainty of the delivery date, which is completely not the case with BFL. All future and option contracts have expiry/maturity dates, as anyone who knows anything about financial markets would know.
The real story is that BFL knew how much hash rate they had sold at any point. At a point in time during their preorder period they must have known that their order book would make subsequent orders not a worthwhile investment. Obviously this depends on the exchange rate which peaked in April, which would have altered the calculation, but even then, as we are seeing now, this threshold was greatly surpassed.
BFL were greedy, oversold what they could produce, sold goods they knew would not be useful to their customers and because of their delays, reduced potential and future returns due to the emergence of competitors who could deliver before them. They deliberately withheld their order book and chose to lock customers in on May 1st knowing this dissatisfaction would occur.
BCP19, you are a cheerleader for BFL. Can I ask why?
You must have some weird definition of cheerleader. Personally, I fail to see why you think BFL or any other mining equipment manufacturuing company should care less if their customers can make RoI or not. They are in the business of selling an item. If the public is so greedy to buy that item that they ruin the RoI on it, I fail to see WHY the company should be the moral compass for the public. Look at McDonalds. They must know that people who regularly eat at their restaurants are at an increased risk for obesity and heart disease, but do they care? They' are only interested in the bottom line, the almighty $$$$$. I also wouldn't call BFL greedy, as they could have jacked the prices up after seeing the demand. If you want to talk GREED, then you need to point at ASICMiner first and foremost. |
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So annoyed by Josh's bullshit. He doesn't even know what a hedge is. You invest in something and you reduce the risk of that investment by betting that the value might go down by purchasing another financial instrument. ie. you buy two things. Typically you'd invest in an equity and then put a short option on the same equity, so that you minimise your losses either way.
If I was hedging on the bitcoin price I'd buy Bitcoins and also buy an option on the price going down. In what way is putting my money into BFL's bank account for a year reducing my risk on the movement of the price of bitcoin? If I get a refund I still haven't made any money on Bitcoin because I didn't have any Bitcoin because BFL had my money!!!
Josh is a stupid asshole who thinks he's cleverer than he is. It's annoying me that he is annoying me :-)
The only "hedging" that could be done would have the same effect as selling bitcoin at the time the order is placed and buying them back later when you requested a refund. This would only apply if you are paying in bitcoin. If people were actually placing orders to do this I would be surprised as you could have the same result by trading on an exchange. Not really, if you ordered in early June and got refunded around July 6th in BTC and then re-ordered a week or so later, you'd still have an order and a fair amount of BTC. |
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I'm still surprised nobody has gone over there and stolen what they've been waiting for. Or do other mean stuff.
I heard someone took a propane torch to the back door and set off the fire alarm... but that could just be a rumor... |
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MiniRigs: August 23 (1st 500 g/s units), All July orders (2nd 500 gh/s) and All June orders complete Is that 2012 or 2013? 2012 unfortunately |
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The controlled method is using contract with TSMC based suppliers to aim the R.O.I
Currently, I only trust ASICMiner's, GPUs and Pyramining as Pyramining is doing the right job.
quoting pyramining: "Investing in Pyramining is indeed very profitable: the complete reward is estimated to be reached in less than 43 months." To me, this is definitively a scam. Pay first, get your money back in 43!!! months :-) It's also a true pyramid. The more people you recruit the more and faster you reach payout. |
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BFL seems to be ramping up production, so it's time for a gut check.
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Saturday, Sept. 21, 2013 Shipping Update by BFL_Jody, 09-21-2013 at 04:15 PM
Jalapenos 4.5 and 5 gh/s: Feb 20, 2013
Little Singles 30 and 25 gh/s: Nov. 29, 2012
Singles 60 and 50 gh/s: Dec. 3, 2012 pay date
MiniRigs: August 23 (1st 500 g/s units), All July orders (2nd 500 gh/s) and All June orders complete Nice jump on Singles and MR I see, pretty soon will be caught up on the first 2 month's orders and shipping full units. I have a feeling someone said "Warp speed Mr. Sulu!" |
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But I want to have free bitcoins! ASICs aren't designed to profit the consumer. They exist to profit the manufacturer only.
Why not just buy the Bitcoins you need? But I want to have free bitcoins  Look into Faucets. Those are the only true 'free' bitcoins. As for buying ASICs, dude, wait at least 6 months til things stabalize or you're tossing money in the trash. |
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BFL shipped my order a few days ago (12 months after ordering it  ), tracking says "Depart USPS Sort Facility" since three days. Is this normal for USPS? Are you located inside or outside the US? For shipping inside, depending on how far from the sort facility you live, it could be on a truck enroute to the sorting facility close to you. If outside, they seem to be sent to Chicago and then no word is heard until they reach their destination. For the most part, USPS dosn't get scans updating their system once a package leaves the country. |
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Even at $3 per GH that's over $2.4million. You honestly think people will spend $2.4M in Jan, $2.64M in Feb, $2.904M in Mar, $3.1944M in Apr?
3600 btc/day * 30 days * $130/btc = $14million revenue. So yeah, $3million per month is going to be cake. You forgot to consider power costs. Using the absolute best power/GH of .7 you'd need ~40.32 gigawatts of power per month or $4.032million minimum at a mere $.10/kw. Since these aren't even supposed to be out until January let's look at what will be out. If you use D&T's estimates and average, you get ~2.1W/GH or ~$8.4million at $.10/kw. Many people have much worse power costs, but still, you expect ~50% of 'profits' to be immediately used to buy more equipment monthly? |
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You think I am joking? 10% would be roughly an additional 800TH in Jan, 880TH in Feb, 968TH in Mar, 1065TH in April, 1172TH in May
Pumping out 800 TH/s in Jan is going to be easy. That's only a few thousand chips. Even at $3 per GH that's over $2.4million. You honestly think people will spend $2.4M in Jan, $2.64M in Feb, $2.904M in Mar, $3.1944M in Apr? |
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The big problem here is that those projects already have had a lot of work done, and it'd be near impossible to prevent old work from being sent through as new work just completed. You'd almost have to come up with a new project from scratch to prevent people trying to cash in without doing anything.
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10%? Per month? What a joke. You think I am joking? 10% would be roughly an additional 800TH in Jan, 880TH in Feb, 968TH in Mar, 1065TH in April, 1172TH in May.... To give you a clearer picture, that's starting from ~7-8 times the current hashrate and then adding the current hashrate to it monthly to start with. While the monthly rate is high now, it cannot sustain that rate indefinitely. I'm looking at realistic projections given the current estimates of all companies. |
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I apologize profusely to those who have been waiting for delivery from BFL, in some cases for over a year, and I realize this may be adding salt to the wound but in the interest of full disclosure they appear to be sending out bulk chip orders on schedule. I received my chips exactly 100 days after paying my deposit. I bought from KnCminer and Metabank at the same time and have received nothing so far from them. Not sure whether this is because it's much simpler to send just chips (Avalon chip buyers might disagree) or because BFL was motivated to collect the balance due on delivery. However this might be a better pre-order model going forward: Collect half upfront and half on delivery...
Again so sorry to be jumping the queue, but don't be too worried. I don't think anyone expected this and it will be awhile before any BFL clone boards are hashing...
Easy to explain, they had nothing to do with the chips except order them and deliver them. Now if when the chips came in they had to do anything with them, then they would be late. They also could have used these chips to satify current orders, but did not. As someone is fond of saying: My $.02 |
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Hypocrites. When AM was selling overpriced toys it was the consumers fault for being stupid. Since it's BFL, it's so sad the poor customers are getting &*$#% over.
I am no hypocrite at the very least. I have always complained and pointed it out. Doesn't matter who it is, it is wrong. My story, nor my stance has changed. I continue to think the same. True, but most of the people in here who pooh poohed me for pointing out AM was fleecing people are now screaming BFL is fleecing people. That my friend IS a hypocrite. So where do you stand on BFL now? I agree with you that AM was fleecing people. In regards to this, I think they are overpriced for me, but they have not reached the level of AM as yet since AM's had 0% chance of positive RoI starting day 1 of their USB's. Before the cries start, consider this: no power costs. My Jalapeno will use ~30 watts of power for 5GH. 252.8kw for 1 year. $25.58 at .10/KW Using http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/d9fe520f0d which I feel is a fair outlook for Jan, make Sept 2013 = Jan 2014 and you can see these is a chance for positive RoI using a 10% increase monthly. If you are pessimistc enough to use 20% it still takes less than a year to break even, while at 25% takes over a year. I personally don't see us at 60+PH by Jan 2015, unless the value of BTC hits new highs or someone creates $1/TH chips. |
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I apologize profusely to those who have been waiting for delivery from BFL, in some cases for over a year, and I realize this may be adding salt to the wound but in the interest of full disclosure they appear to be sending our bulk chip orders on schedule. I received my chips exactly 100 days after paying my deposit. I bought from KnCminer and Metabank at the same time and have received nothing so far from them. Not sure whether this is because it's much simpler to send just chips (Avalon chip buyers might disagree) or because BFL was motivated to collect the balance due on delivery. However this might be a better pre-order model going forward: Collect half upfront and half on delivery...
Again so sorry to be jumping the queue, but don't be too worried. I don't think anyone expected this and it will be awhile before any BFL clone boards are hashing...
Shhhhhhhhhhhh! You can't SAY that!!! No one will believe BFL shipped something ON TIME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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On August 19th when they introduced the Monarch and put the 'majority of the network' statement out there is was true. Just cause times have changed you're demanding they change along with it.
That "as of Aug 19th" isn't on the webpage. How is a regular customer supposed to know those statements are no long applicable? By leaving deceptive statements on the web page, something that may have been true once before is now simply dishonest. Yet I don't see you tracking down the hundreds of other companies that have made claims that are now not true due to time and change.
You can thank Josh for being such a great PR person. He just inspires me. You care so much about the customers of 1 company and disregard the millions of other people being taken in regularly by all the other companies following the same practices. Your compassion definitely has limits. |
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