I think you are making the assumption that all that hashpower will be retail.  I would venture to say the endgame is getting close (middle of 2014?).  Asic Producers will be self mining as it won't be profitable to sell low margin chips when they can just self-mine at $.5/GH ($500/TH).  This assumes they have been through a pre-order retail round for NRE recpature.  I believe that level is sustainable by the different producers who want to keep their 10 to 15% slice of the network.

This -  You guys really believe in X^2 to happen month after month after month?  Someone needs to show some mathematics to substantiate the GH required to make it 1B by next January.

If Cointerra, Hashfash, Terrahash, and Bitfury all happen together around early Dec, then Yes its possible.  (Anyone who regards BFL or Avalon as a threat needs to realize that those are now the larger chipsizes)  BFL is simply doing a dead cat bounce and clawing for their life to keep money coming in ala Monarch announcement.

also I think 100,000 ASIC miners is more realistic, 40-50% being monarchs over the next 12 months

Average it out at 500gh/s that is 5ph/s in the next year. Isn't it?


Yes there has been substantial growth in difficulty but I don't believe they will bring out a new ASIC in less then 12 months it defies market logic. Even the monarch has been pushing it but they know the monarch won't be ready for another 5-6 months .

Speaking from a marketing point of view they would know that the ship date is a bit early but worst case scenario they will ship 2 months late. So 6 months til you get your batch of monarch. February -march well see the difficulty jump again. Around January December well see the full range of 4th generation miners from bfl. They will have a 4month minimum ship date. Best case scenario 90 days if bfl ups its shit and doesn't have the delays we saw this year.

Bfl would have folded by now if it planned on running off with out money and it wouldn't have made such a bad start to its business by pissing off customers. It's not too good to be true because it isn't too good we have to wait months for our ASics they aren't scamming us people have received their units ordered in the prior year.

Now realistically speaking lets make a realistic chart. You can't go and make a chart based on recent growth because there is simply no way the worlds ASIC companies will be able to manufacture 33,000,000 ASIC miners capable of 500gh/s minimum outputs.

I'm going to put together some data and see what we come up with I suggest some of you do the same.

Taking into account that list of the ASIC miners ordered from bfl and we will have to assume it makes up at least 50% of the recent hash rate increase.(I'm not quite sure what percent of the market they hold).


Then we take into account how much they have produced and shipped in the last 14 months work out their production rate add a reasonable percent , 30-35% increased production.

I can't be bothered looking it up right now I'm on my phone but when I get infrint of a pc ill source some data. Ill put up a poll later to get rough numbers of ASIC companies customers etc.


There is just too much horseshit speculation going on and I don't like it. I honestly believe you can still turn a profit in 12 months from an ASIC unit. We should also work out an equation of hash rate to difficulty to use as a guideline when considering ASIC units. If there already is one please help and show us. Not looking at usd value though try not to use fiat currency as a guide when looking at profit , ROI . Lets use btc.because that minimises exchange rate speculation. We also round up costs and round down returns this provides a worst case scenario.

For starters we have 100,000 500gh/s units =5ph/s added to our current hash rate we can round that up to 6ph/s from memory the current hash rate was above 500th/s?

Can someone calculate expected difficulty at 6ph/s?


But until we get realistic numbers of ASIC units preordered in the 500gh category this data will also be speculation but what I believe to be solid speculative data. A lot more trustworthy then a lot of the speculation we have been getting / making.

Assuming difficulty is 75,000,000 assuming network hash rate is around 650-750th/s Ill roughly say our hash rate with 6ph will be around 650,000,000-750,000,000 does anyone agree? Around 1,000,000,000 diff this time next year? That will return something like 0.20-0.30 btc a day If I'm not wrong



Please someone add to this or adjust . I want as much input as we can get.


When you use a mining calculator assume electricity costs 0.35 cents per kwh (worst case scenario we pay around this in Australia).


Simply we cannot assume the difficulty will rise at a steady rate , ASIC miners do not go up in hash rate the longer they are plugged in. Difficulty and hash rate is directly manipulated by how much a company can produce and sell ASIC units.

It doesn't look that good even if the difficulty only goes linear at 41M daily difficulty rise (15B difficulty at the end of 2014).  With the best case scenario of them shipping out the cards at the end of 2013, they will end up makeing 21 BTC in 2013 and then 3 or 4 more in all of 2015.

I would say these projections are pretty optimistic being that they aren't exponential but linear.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

Basically... 600 is too small for delivery in December (and given BFL's track record, 2013 delivery is laughable)

It's a bad deal, for sure.  But I have to say it's pretty bizarre how you rag on Asicminer all the time, yet defend Butterfly labs to the hilt.

I don't quibble with your math.  I don't think that 33M Monarchs will be delivered by 1/1/2015.  I would question whether or not ONE Monarch would be delivered by 1/1/2015.

However BFL are not the only ones producing hashing chips.  The hashing algorithm/circuitry is very conducive to massive parallelism, and the design is not all that complicated.  Anyone with access to the tools can create a design, and once you have the GDSII, you can go to just about any fab with it.  The fabs in China are well entrenched at the 28nm node, and will be producing either 20nm or 16nm before long.  I think that we're going to see continued escalation in the mining war, and the PHash/sec milestone is not that far off.  Current growth in the hashing rate has been 17% per 11.4 days so far this year.  If we extend that rate into the future, we'll hit the 1PH/sec milestone in December 2014.

Using these numbers, your $4680 Monarch, if it goes online on 1/1/14, will earn 27.4 BTC before leveling off at < .01 BTC/week in November 2014.  You'll have earned 27 BTC by July, not so much after that.

I'm glad I'm not waiting for a $30K "minirig" to show up.  If it got here today, I'd earn $80K.  If it gets here on December 1st, I'd probably get half my money back.  I'd certainly trade it for 6 or more Monarchs.  I'd be lucky to break even.

I'm still waiting for a single Jally, which might get here by 10/1.  I'll be lucky to break even.

There are instances where cars are bought for more than sticker when they are new and supply is limited.

Fun with projections: A 100GH/s unit delivered today will never earn beyond $3K in its lifetime.  Given the current exponential growth of difficulty, A 100GH/s unit will earn $3K by Feb 2014, and then earn another $20 by Jan 1, 2015.

A new 600GH unit from BFL, delivered in January (I know, I'm smoking something, but so are they!) will earn $675 in a year.  $665 of that by June 1, 2014.  Not much payback on a $5K "investment."  In 2015, it would not even be earning a penny a week.

Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 1B+ on Jan 1, 2014. 
Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 2.8T+ on Jan 1, 2015. 

If all the GPU miners in the WORLD shut down tomorrow, it won't affect things much.  What was the total hash rate before the Avalons, and ASIC-miners (and BFL's) started shipping?  It actually looks like the success of BTC mining is also going to be the downfall of BTC mining.  Growth makes mining unprofitable...

If you had about $1500-$2000 of FREE money available between now and a year from now. (say it's from your parents, your employer, an envelope found on the street, from God, whatever....)
You also had free electricity and network resources.
Nothing on pre-order, no place in any queue.

What course of action would you take vis-a-vis mining?

DAMN THAT'S.........

Don't you feel bad for the guy that said:
My question: Please tell me I will receive the 60GH model for the price that was paid as I see you have changed your pricing model and I am almost down to my last couple of dollars but risked it all with your company.

in the article you quoted?

I don't think complaining about the price of hardware is fair when it sells out every time in a matter of hours or days.

All other ASIC pre-orders admit to giving especially cheap prices/hash because it's a pre-order... their cheap prices will not last if they ever do actually deliver anything.

What is this price change you're mentioning? Or is that an assumption on your part based on new developments from new entrants to a now crowded field?

The only thing that matters is the price today. $274/$128 = 2.14 BTC right now. That's more than 2 BTC.


That's funny. ASICMiner is "highway robbery", but BFL is simply "not a good price" even though it costs more and is delivered months later. That means you're simply a troll.

you never replied to my request for you to clarify the bet.

Will

Sorry but my antivirus is unhappy with your software

Sorry if I used too many words for you. Let my try one simple question.

Is BFL's current offer of 5 GH/s for 2 BTC delivered in "2 or more months" also "highway robbery"?

Bcp,

I mostly agree with your points here and elsewhere, but this one is a losing fight;

A block eruptor blade at this point is far superior to a jalapeño; you could get the blade and watch difficulty adjust once, maybe twice, while you wait; waiting for the jalapeño means probably 6 or 8 difficulty adjustments will go by. Basically though, NEITHER will be profitable, but the eruptor will lose it slower by virtue of getting it at a lower difficulty.

Yes, AM has typically sold asics at extreme markups because they could boast that theirs would ship immediately, and that's been bad for people returns; the world will look a lot different come November; basically the way things look, no miner will be profitable. There's no sense in arguing semantics, defending bfl or am, they both offer exceedingly poor deals at this point.

  All I ask is you mention the btc price needs to rise or the blades are a long term fail.  btc was 85 usd in early aug it is now 131 usd these are coinbase prices So in 1 month price rose 55 %..    so in

one month btc price    will be    203 usd.  
two months btc price   will be   314 usd.
three months btc price will be   486 usd.
then  753   usd  
then  1167 usd      in 5 months

why not coins were 10 bucks last year   jumped all the way to 240 and now are 131   so 10 x 13 = 130    they are 13 fold in price from a year ago today 13 x 131 = 1700usd a btc


please if you want to argue diff going up mention btc price going up.  or for that matter going down.