Put up the maths.
Put up or shut up.
I would put them up yet again, but I tire of K9's refusal to live in reality. GPU & FPGA: 20TH <-- generous BitFury: 85TH <-- by their pool Avalon: 100TH? <- god knows... refunded a lot of B3... 800k chips? lol. "2 more weeks" ASICMiner: 110 <- I'm being generous. Blockchain shows 5% of blocks... 3000 USB/TH... 315TH out of 500+ BFL could easily have more than any other company. I will say, I have a problem with BitFury's numbers. They have their "own" pool, but they don't show up on the block-chain. Are they part of the 125TH "unknown"? If so, how are they in a pool? THAT seems shady. ASICMiners' shares have dropped by almost 30%... what do the shareholders know we don't? Don't bother nitpicking my numbers, I'll just ignore you. Show your own numbers if you disagree(and if you can) Bitfury does not just use one pool. That is a single example of a bitfury installation. 500K/800K of Avalon chips were not stuck in customs. The ones delivered to addresses in China arrived in late July. That is 150TH unaccounted for. All batch 3 units were built and shipped. Given ASICMiner's ability to sell overpriced hardware in the market, I am guessing Avalon got an even better price for the units who's owners wanted refunds. That bumps it up to at least 465TH out of 500+. Oops. |
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Go ahead and line up for Monarch pre orders. We need some entertainment for last half of 2014 by them I may have my April 4 2013 order in hand and the thousands of 2012 preorders willl at last be fulfilled. What part of the BFL Centipede are You?  Shouldn't it be Centipede Labs Monarch?  |
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It only matters when BFL gets their shipment of chips in. They said it would take 100 days for the chip order. That means they needed to order in late June to get them by the last day in September. That also assumes that it won't be late, like every other thing BFL has attempted.
I doubt they will get the chips by September, but it is possible.
According to bcp19, BFL would have to assemble at least 100,000 devices before sept 30 (since bcp19 believes that BFL has 7PH/s of pre-orders). BFL has said that they can do 300 units per day max. It would take 334 days to process 100,000 units at that rate which means that BFL could not finish their backlog by September. So either bcp19 is way way off in his estimate of BFL pre-orders. Or he doesn't believe they could ship all their pre-orders by Sept 30 (would require shipping 2800 units a day).
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Too bad BFL can't actually prove that any of their claims are true. BFL will brag and say they have shipped more hash rate than anyone. However, when asked to declare exactly how many units have shipped and exactly how many more they have to go, BFL refuses to answer saying they don't want to say how many devices they have shipped.
Those two things don't add up. Also, you would have to pretend that Bitfury did not exist, and that every single Avalon chip out of the 800K that arrived early July has gone missing, and that ASICMiner has not added any hash rate in order for BFL's claim to be correct. The last sane analysis had them around 80TH shipped.
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Actually, I'm just an asshole.
^This |
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You said this on June 22nd:
"Production is slowly ramping up and we are easily able to manufacture 200 units a day currently - there will be no problem hitting 400 units a day once things are in full production."
Its almost September, when do things go into full production??
How many you manufacturing a day now? [don't worry we don't expect you to know, you are just the COO, so no reply expected]
On Jun 19th you said this:
""What's the ETA for new orders placed today?" - Sometime in September is my guess."
90 days. You haven't shipped July 2012 in 90 days.
On Jun 19th you also said:
""Josh,you were thinking all 2012 (non-MR) pre orders would be shipped by end of July, still feel that way?" Yeah, I think we'll get it done."
[WRONG AGAIN]
On June 17th you said:
" We have a bunch of singles doing burn in right now and they'll be shipping tomorrow."
It took you in excess of 50 days to get Singles from June 23rd out the door
On June 9th you said:
So far, it's looking like 400 a day was a conservative estimate (that's 400 aggregate across all product lines, not 400 per product line). With a partial team going on the Jalapeno's, we can easily do 200 in about 5 hours.
[Then why haven't you? You haven't got 400 a day out the door EVER]
First they said " So let us repeat - The only uncertainty left is the exact date in January our 100% custom BFL ASIC chips will arrive at our facility." https://forums.butterflylabs.com/content/127-bfl-asic-delays-depth-expanation.html?postid=8237#comments_8237Then they outlined the schedule for chip bumping, packaging and shipping: " Week of February 3rd: Packaged chips sent to assembly house" https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html and by Feb 25th the chips still had not arrived: " We had expected the bumping to be done by now, as per the previous update(s). That has not been completed yet." https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status-2.htmlThen finally on Mar 28th at long last (but still not shipping): " We have the current design hashing" But on Mar 29th: " We plan on shipping possibly by the end of next weekAnd sadly on Apr 15th: " We've been working on getting the software and firmware nailed down. Things are mostly stabilized at this point and with our current boards (we do not have the redesigned boards in house yet)" Then on May 6th: " As many of you know, we started shipping out a quantity of Jalapeno's (around 35 or so), about half of those went to developers and the media" It isn't that Josh/Inaba said "two more weeks", it is that every two weeks or so, Josh/Inaba would explain about additional delays and give another schedule that was spectacularly wrong. |
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Out of curiosity, did anyone ever correct you on your 'en mass' statement?
Yes, several people pointed it out when I posted it. stfu and refund me BBB 9660523
No. Put on your big boy pants first and accept responsibility for your actions, then we'll talk. That just cost BFL $16,000 for knowingly violating FTC rules about offering refunds for unshipped merchandise. Although, at this point BFL is more worried about having to refund their customers than they are about breaking the law. |
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Pretty much no one is going to make a profit on most other miners either. If/when they get it.
So you're saying that if you had $39 in your pocket, and you converted it into BTC and purchased a miner with it.. you mine it for a year or two, and you will never get your $39 back? What if a BTC suddenly climbs to $10,000 in a couple of years.. and this only generated 0.2 BTC at that time (a net BTC loss), you would still have $2000? If these can make 0.01 BTC in 3-4 days, who's to say that 0.01 BTC isn't worth >$40 soon? When you decide to buy an ASIC miner you are deciding to buy a variable stream of BTC. If one can estimate the total expected BTC, then one can price that BTC and compare it to buying BTC off an exchange. If you can get the BTC off an exchange for a lot less, then the miner will not yield good investment returns compared to just buying BTC. People purchase these for different reasons. I have many of these purring away right now and I have already earned over 20-30% of their cost. If at the end of the year they have only earned 60% that's okay with me. It's better than pre-ordering a BFL and a year later it hasn't arrived, at least with these you can do your profit calculations knowing that it will be in your hand in a day or so.
Thats fine. I consider them superior to BFL as well, since the USB sticks actually exist. These make an excellent choice for first-timers of Bitcoin particularly, even though holding BTC is an even better way to guarantee profits.
I wouldn't say guarantee, but otherwise I agree. There is also the PPCoin angle. If you point yours at PP, there is a chance that by the end of the year the PPCoin hashrate skyrockets and block reward plummets, and you could convert your PP into BTC at a profit.
Perhaps. *Who knows* what will happen in this crypto world, and what the best choices are, but don't hate on the USB miner because they are "outrageously" priced at 0.39 BTC! I remember paying 40 BTC for a 5870 not long ago. If you want a miner, buy one, if not, keep it to yourself!  Why shouldn't the math be posted? That is the fundamental nature of bitcoin itself, it is based entirely on mathematics. |
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lol. Just a second ago you told me there is a difference between the words fraud and lie. Now you can't give me a simple two word term that is French in origin and means to ship "in a mass; as a group", is that correct?
I am not french, your definition sparks nothing in my memory. How can I know shomething if I cannot remember having heard it? Does IQ = Omnipotence? Its a puzzle, it requires little thought. (Thats where the IQ part comes in.) Someone with a high IQ and having attended MIT should have been able to operate "the googles on the interwebs". http://lmgtfy.com/?q=en+masse |
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lol. Just a second ago you told me there is a difference between the words fraud and lie. Now you can't give me a simple two word term that is French in origin and means to ship "in a mass; as a group", is that correct?
I am not french, your definition sparks nothing in my memory. How can I know shomething if I cannot remember having heard it? Does IQ = Omnipotence? Someone from MIT with a high IQ might take 5 seconds and look up the word. You on the other hand merely claim to have these attributes.  |
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This is an intentional screw to the greedy customer too dumb to realiae it. If BFL was as shady as ASICMiner, it would have sold units on e-bay 2 months ago for $100k+ instead of shipping to their customers, claiming "Oh, look, our first customers are selling!".
No, they couldn't sell them on Ebay because the merchandise must exist before Ebay will let you sell them. ASICMiner can sell you an overpriced product because all BFL can do is sell promises, they can't keep them. KNC and Bitfury might provide some competition. BFL never will. 2 months ago it did. 18 jun the first 3 mini's were shipped. Oh, you mean the gigavps units? They penned a deal with giga that he would get his mini-rigs before anyone else. Beta customer or some such. That would have blown up in their face. However, this was reported: http://bflfraud.com/Ah, yes, everyone who starts out: "I’m not going to tell you a pack of lies. I’m just going to tell you how it is. " Is always 100% reputable. Besides, Jun 20 1 mini shipped Jun 21 1 mini shipped Jun 22 mini shipping continues (they stopped giving numbers) But hey, they MUST have been lying about those. Link to your source for that information? |
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Oh so you are saying that an officer of the company saying a product will be delivered in two weeks for months on end is... not intentionally misleading his customers?
If his supplier is telling him 2 weeks and he turns around and tells customers 2 weeks, yes. Do you have proof something else happened? There are many instances of BFL contradicting itself. If you didn't just get off the shortbus, you might have read about them. Name: bcp19 Posts: 418 Activity: 56 Position: Member Date Registered: July 05, 2013, 03:28:38 PM That is why everyone makes fun of you. |
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This is an intentional screw to the greedy customer too dumb to realiae it. If BFL was as shady as ASICMiner, it would have sold units on e-bay 2 months ago for $100k+ instead of shipping to their customers, claiming "Oh, look, our first customers are selling!".
No, they couldn't sell them on Ebay because the merchandise must exist before Ebay will let you sell them. ASICMiner can sell you an overpriced product because all BFL can do is sell promises, they can't keep them. KNC and Bitfury might provide some competition. BFL never will. 2 months ago it did. 18 jun the first 3 mini's were shipped. Oh, you mean the gigavps units? They penned a deal with giga that he would get his mini-rigs before anyone else. Beta customer or some such. That would have blown up in their face. However, this was reported: http://bflfraud.com/ |
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I guess bcp19 is out of marketing material from BFL and now must engage in personal attacks on people who disagree with him.
Typical play out of the BFL playbook.
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Oh so you are saying that an officer of the company saying a product will be delivered in two weeks for months on end is... not intentionally misleading his customers? That is what he is saying. Plus, he is saying everyone will make their money back. Shiller gotta shill I guess. |
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This is an intentional screw to the greedy customer too dumb to realiae it. If BFL was as shady as ASICMiner, it would have sold units on e-bay 2 months ago for $100k+ instead of shipping to their customers, claiming "Oh, look, our first customers are selling!".
No, they couldn't sell them on Ebay because the merchandise must exist before Ebay will let you sell them. ASICMiner can sell you an overpriced product because all BFL can do is sell promises, they can't keep them. KNC and Bitfury might provide some competition. BFL never will. |
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That is a mirror that you, bcp19, Red_Wolf2, and Inaba are looking at.  Ask your overseer at BFL: Now that BFL got a fresh infusion of cash, can we expect more mini-rigs to ship? Or are those customers just perma-screwed? Another spin K9quaint ?  If you like, I am guessing you need the exercise. Or is that Inaba on the wheel? He certainly goes off the rails a bunch. PSA: If you have ordered from ButterFly Labs and have not yet received your product, you are entitled to a refund whenever you request one (per FTC rules). First ask ButterFly Labs for a refund, they will probably say no but you might get lucky. If you ordered via PayPal you can file a complaint with them even if you are outside the 45 day window. Multiple customers have already gotten a refund from PayPal that was outside the 45 days. If you ordered via Bitcoin or Bank wire, you can fill out a complaint with the FTC and they will advocate for you with ButterFly Labs to get your refund. You can also contact the office of the Kansas Attorney General and inform them that you have had your money taken with no product delivered for months, just more promises. You can also do a paper filing with the DA here: http://da.jocogov.org/complaint-formsThere are also several threads on how to get a refund from ButterFly Labs, here are two: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=266945.0https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=272585.0 |
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From www.wtcr.ca:  Also: All ASICMINER Products totaling 5 BTC or more are eligible for FREE UPS Express Shipping this weekend. Canada and USA only. ( link) There you go Folks!!!! 33GH for ONLY $3300!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hey! K9! How much BTC will that 32BTC get back?!?!?!?!? Pass. Clearly you have not read my post history, otherwise you would have picked someone else. As always, you get the math wrong. Today, BTC is trading at $122, so 32 BTC for a 100 pack would be worth $3904. They would get about half their BTC back according to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/They would at least get their mining equipment immediately. If the difficulty rise tails off (unlikely), they would be in a position to take advantage of that because they would already have their hardware running. Still, these should only be regarded as novelty items, or for securing the blockchain and democratizing the mining of bitcoin, not for an investment that will give a positive ROI. Plus, shiny. |
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All sales are final and they use paypal ?
how does that work ? paypal has 45day pre-order terms
A sale is not a sale until the merchandise is shipped to the customer. What BFL is saying is "after you get your stuff, we will not give you your money back". This actually has nothing to do with pre-order investors who have not yet received their miners. |
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