As someone who was raised in California I can tell you that I'm no stranger to wildfire smoke.  Plenty of summers were filled with disgusting days on the lake that led to fleeing the area for cleaner air.  Most of us when living in a wildfire prone area have become accustomed to having friends within driving distance that are willing to host us when things get bad.  Now that I live in Arizona, I've even become a spot where some of my California friends will come to escape the smoke from wildfires.  I'd advise you to not stick around and deal with air filters, but just leave and take a vacation.  Turn a negative into a positive.

If you've ever taken a look at shops in crazy expensive places like the beaches in California and you'll notice something strange.  The real estate prices are so high that many large businesses can't afford to operate their.  However, you also see a lot of Mom and Pop type of shops that have been there forever.  The difference in the ones that got rich vs the shops that failed are whether or not they owned their building.  Shops that purchased their real estate ended up getting rich from valuations, while shops that rented all met the same fate of being priced out of the market.  I could see Bitcoin being the next wave of this phenomenon, where shop owners that held onto some Bitcoin over the years ended up wealthy, while those who didn't were eventually forced to close.

With the hangover from ETH still holding down the market, most of the people I know who were GPU mining during the last bubble in 2021 have given up mining.  Even those in areas with insanely cheap power that could still be mining profitably are no longer interested and don't see it as their opportunity to easily get rich anymore.  This fatigue is usually when I see the market changing.  I will admit I've also shut down my miners that were barely profitable due to heat in the summer not making it worth the cooling effort.  In my experience, times like now when mining seems like a lost cause is when it's the most profitable looking back.

That chart does do a good job of displaying just how early we still are.  If Bitcoin does continue it's rise, I think the largest increases are still in our future.  Many people still consider Bitcoin a speculative investment, myself included and I don't think that will change until iOS has a BTC wallet and people are using it to buy products from Walmart.  I suspect that won't happen for several more years, maybe 5+, but if and when it does, it wouldn't surprise me to see a 7 figure Bitcoin price.  The world is going to be a strange place when content creators and speculative investors are the ones making big bucks while doctors and lawyers are asking them for advice.

I would agree that Bitcoin is nearing the next leg up.  I think a little bit of concern around the mtgox situation still remains, but once that is behind us I think we'll end the year in the $40K range.  The real fireworks will begin at the end of next year though.  I think if you're holding Bitcoin here, you have to commit to holding until the 2025 top plays out just to see what you could get if the market does repeat itself again for the 4th time.  I have my concerns whether the Bitcoin economy can survive another massive price increase, but I do suspect we'll get our answer shortly after the next Presidential election in the US.

I think most people believed that the Miami Heat wouldn't win this series.  I don't think they could have beaten the Lakers either.  Boston might have had a chance, but couldn't get over the hump.

Congrats to the Denver Nuggets.  They have a great young roster and I have no doubt they'll be one of the 4 teams left standing towards the end of next season.

Now all eyes are on free agency.  It looks like the Suns are going to be the first ones to make a splash as they are desperately trying to get anything they can for Chris Paul and are also looking at trading DeAndre Ayton for someone like Terry Rozier, which I think will be a mistake.

There are people connecting the similarities between AI now with its level of hype and the internet back in the dot com boom. I think while AI is awesome and will change the world, perhaps people are thinking it will change the world a little faster than it will. It took over a decade for the internet companies to get their valuations and businesses figured out. AI will likely be similar.

A lot of people have been yelling for them to stop raising rates for a while now. With inflation where it has been, prices are rising everywhere expect compensation. Salaries have called way behind the cost of living increases and the only thing in my opinion keeping us from a 2008 style crash is that asset prices are being held up by rampant inflation.

A wrapped Cybertruck was spotted yesterday at their testing plant. This is the first time I’ve seen one with a wrap job. It looks pretty cool. Not the style I would go for but it’s nice to see that these trucks will easily be able to be wrapped in whatever color or design you want. Take a look for yourself using the below link.

https://twitter.com/sawyermerritt/status/1668798166139895808

Equities markets are cheering the lower than expected inflation rate this morning. This means extraordinary government measures to reign in asset prices won’t be needed much longer and the printing press will soon be fired up again. This is good news for everything priced in dollars, which includes Bitcoin.

Yup, that’s how pretty much everyone I’ve talked to about it feels. Denver deserved the win and I think we’re witnessing the birth of a new dynasty as they’re all still young enough to get 2 or 3 more titles if they can stay healthy and together. This was the ending that was to be expected and hopefully the regular season comes back fast!

First half down. So far the Heat are surviving. They’re shooting terribly though. They’re mostly being saved by the fact the Nuggets are shooting 1 for 15 from three point range in the first half. It seems like Miami is making a massive effort to win this game. If they can sustain their defense for another two quarters I think they might win. That’s a tall order though.

As human beings as a whole fail to meet basic reproduction needs to sustain the population going forward, immigration will likely be viewed by politicians as a way to keep the boat afloat and keep tax revenue coming in while society begins to collapse. The downside being that the immigrants will likely be relocating because they want a better life, and this are likely a less wealthy class so more prone to crime, etc.

It appears as though Pakistan has already started ditching the dollar and using other currencies to make their global oil purchases. I don’t see any reason why they wouldn’t be included into the BRICS+ alliance that is forming right before our eyes as Joe Biden does nothing but accelerate demand away from the dollar. We’re witnessing a changing reserve currency and it is going to be extremely fascinating to watch.

Even $50K seems high to me given all the headwinds we’re facing. I think we’re likely to sit around $40K at the end of the year as we head into the halving. Once that is behind us, I think the market will see that the price is getting ready for another bubble and that’s when the FOMO will begin and things will get interesting.

It was nice to see MATIC’s price bounce after the recent massacre. It’s still down quite a bit but the freefall from altcoins being attacked by the Untied States seems to have left the worst behind. I have a lot of expectation that MATIC will do very well as the metaverse becomes more developed, but it’s been a bumpy ride this cycle so far.

NFTs can last as long as their hosting does. Many people think NFTs are images on the blockchain, which is not true. They are just a link on the blockchain, so someone still has to be hosting the image. Until a better way to store NFTs on blockchains has been established as common, it will always come down to who is hosting the images.

I think now would be a poor time to invest in BNB. Sure, they say to buy when there’s blood in the streets and Binance has definitely been dragged lately. I think the likelihood of any big move in the price of BNB is toward the downside though. After Luna and FTT you really can’t be too careful. I would avoid.

Gambling on losing teams is a legitimate strategy, but more than betting on losing teams I think it is evaluating the risk/reward scenario with a specific bet. Sure, there might be a team that is likely to win, but maybe it pays a penny to the dollar. Basically, winning that bet doesn’t make a difference. I get more entertainment out of betting longshots and making sure the reward is worth the risk.

I’ve said it plenty before and possibly even on this thread, but providing your personal information to anyone is never safe. This should be evident with all of the hacks that regularly occur. If you do have to provide your identity information, make sure it’s to someone reputable, but even then it could very possibly be hacked and stolen.