Potential profit is now €650 and should be a bit up by tomorrow.



Now here's a tip for you:

Brian Harman was at fixed odds of 175 to 1 and 250 to 1 in the exchange.
Now trading at 80 to 1 in the exchange.

If you can lay - now it's the time. Get €70 profit for laying this one.

MarathonBet btw is offering 151 on Harman if you believe he could scoop it, more than twice the price of the exchange:
https://www.marathonbet.com/en/betting/Golf+-+10

The tournament has started.
Those of you who like to do some arbitrage - some players who were 1000 to 1 are now trading as 600 to 1.
There is no doubt why this kind of tournament brings a lot, a lot of trading opportunities - the angle presented here is only one single way of looking at trading this event.

It's worth noting the US Open (Golf) starts today in about 2 hours from now, and Phil Mickelson is going to participate.
The oddsmakers estimate his chances fo winning the US Open as 500 to 1:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402568.0

Yes, exactly.

However, during the tournament, players such as Seamus Power (90 to 1) might hit 500 to 1 in the exchange (due to poor performance and very slim chances of winning) - so if it feels right you can lay them as well €5400 against 500 to 1 is about €11 profit. This is just an estimate.

Jason Kokrak is definitely a threat but his past performance in the US open hasn't been great. Still, laying him might lead to some swings, he could definitely hit the 50 to 1 odds during the tournament, it's even likely.

Anyway,
This kind of betting activity is basically predicting that the winner would come from a group containing more than the top 40 players in the world.



If you want to be greedy and bet the winner would come from the top 20 players in the world then your potential profit would be higher, but it's good to remember it's always better to be safe than sorry.

The oddsmakers have been quite spot-on in the past years with their odds on favorites, it's amazing how Jordan Spieth is 26 to 1, seems like quite a lot of value, he plays in his home turf, literally.

Of course.



Now in live betting, if one of those who are 100 to 1 (ish) hit 500 to 1 in live - you can lay them as well for extra €10 each.

Expected profit here is €600 approx.

Risk: €5,350

There is no free money in gambling but judging by history - these kind of bets are value bets, not the opposite.

That's definitely a valid point - people should invest only what they can afford to lose, including Bitcoin.
No one can see the future, but the markets are definitely ruled right now by fear.

1) If you really feel one of them can end up as a winner you can do the opposite - deposit €400 - €500 and back the ones you like - you would win 10-20 times your stake, depends how big is your risk.

2) The min. stake is €6 so if you lay €5400 against 900 to 1 then you risk €5400 to win €6 (on a player that is virtually next to none in terms of winning)

There is enough liquidity in the market for all of them, if I were to guess I'd say the ones with odds of 50 to 1 or less - one of them will win this.

Golf is about a lot of things other than randomality, it's how the player hits the ball in crazy weather, how much practice he makes, and so on ... those who can afford more (who have deep pockets) have better chances here, that's how it normally works (to a certain extent of course).

World economy is based on trust.
What Bitcoin "created" so far is a lot of victims who lost money to thousands of scams and even "genuine" products like LUNA brought more victims into this world.

The average Joe needs to trust the system, not to be afraid of it.

When you get more and more and more victims, and it's only rolling like a giant snowball - then no math in the world can save it. And this is where we're heading now.

How can you be so sure about it?

No, these are not all the players who play in the tournament, but these are all the players with odds of 300 to 1 or more.
In Bet365 the one with the lowest odds is GaryWoodland with fixed odds of 141.

You are basically betting none of these super-high-odds players is going to win the tournament.

The winner is quite likely going to come out of the ones with odds of 50 to 1 or less, pre-match.

Of course, there can always be a surprise, but the chances of that happening are quite slim. Those players get super high odds for a reason - their chances of winning are extremely low.

Edit: The betting slip is HERE

The US Open starts in 2 days.
Let's say you use a BetFair account in order to lay Golf players that have virtually almost 0 chance to win. (odds of 300 to 1 or more).

If you can't use BetFair you can use OrbitX for example:
https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/3

(See also a guide here - How to use BetFair from anywhere)

Now,

You deposit a quite large amount of €5400 and you start laying the players with the high odds, literally:

Kurt Kityama - 900 to 1 - €6.00
Patrick Rodgers - 870 to 1 - €6.20
Thorbjorn Olesen - 810 to 1 - €6.66
Scott Stallings - 650 to 1 - €8.30
Wyndham Clark - 620 to 1 - €8.70
Harris English - 650 to 1 - €8.30
Joel Dahmen - 700 to 1 - €7.70
Matthew NeSmith - 640 to 1 - €8.50
Beau Hossler - 630 to 1 - €8.60
Taylor Montgomery - 580 to 1 - €9.30
Kevin Kisner - 510 to 1 - €10.60
Erik Van Rooyen - 530 to 1 - €10.20
Branden Grace - 530 to 1 - €10.20
Lanto Griffin - 490 to 1 - €11.00
Cameron Tringale - 490 to 1 - €11.00
Denny Mccarthy - 540 to 1 - €10.00
Adri Arnaus - 500 to 1 - €10.80
Sam Horsfield - 470 to 1 - €11.50
Adam Hadwin - 480 to 1 - €11.25
Mackenzie Hughes - 470 to 1 - €11.50
Victor Perez - 490 to 1 - €11.00
Stewart Cink - 500 to 1 - €11.00
Kevin Na - 420 to 1 - €12.80
Lucas Herbert - 430 to 1 - €12.55
Phil Mickelson - 490 to 1 - €11.00
Francesco Molinari - 430 to 1 - €12.55
Thomas Pieters - 390 to 1 - €13.80
Alex Noren - 360 to 1 - €15.00
Sepp Straka - 380 to 1 - €14.20
Tom Hoge - 340 to 1 - €15.80
Luke List - 310 to 1 - €17.40
K.H. Lee - 370 to 1 - €14.60
Brian Harman - 300 to 1 - €18.00
Sergio Garcia - 300 to 1 - €18.00
Marc Leishman - 320 to 1 - €16.85
Ryan Fox - 300 to 1 - €18.00
Gary Woodland - 270 to 1 - €20

So by doing this you risk €5400 in order to win €439

So you make a profit of 8% approx. on your investment, but it's almost risk free.

What do you think about it?
 

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There was no raise of interest rates since 2007-2008, i.e. it's 14+ years now.
This is the main element that is changing everything.

What you say is fair enough.
Only time will tell how the future would look with Bitcoin.

Cheers.
One more to add:

• NFT
• The NFT market is pretty bust - it was a complete bubble that got burst (look @ ApeCoin for that matter - $3.78 seems quite "expensive" despite its peak at $25 a few months ago)

What makes you believe they won't win long term? They have more tools than we can imagine.
It's like one local resident going against the local municipality where he lives - they have more power than he does alone.

Bitcoin without proper use (e.g. Binance) - would be a trouble.
Clearly regulation is what most governments look for - but what if the entire economy will be digitalized like Bitcoin (yes, no more "Swift" for wire transfers) - and still the 21st Bitcoin so many talked about could bring the end of Bitcoin? Then what do you have left? Ethereum?

The centeral banks cannot be underestimated, they are the ones with unlimited supply of cash to do whatever floats their boats.



Say you can get a Passport from some island across the ocean, but you can't use it at all, no country in the world would accept you with this Passport, not even for travel - then what good use can you make out of this Passport? (ask the same about Bitcoin/Binance etc.)

If you search on Google for "Why Bitcoin is falling" you would find dozens of articles full of BS explaining to you nothing, so let's keep it short and sweet:

• The collapse of Luna and UST is one reason
• During the collapse Tether (USDT) hit $0.95 - it could happen again and this time go south
• Bank run on Celsius - the model of lending/high interest doesn't work well if central banks around the world raise interest rates and make it unattractive to look for such products as a result
• BlockFi and Crypto.com cutting off 20% of its work force:
  https://www.theverge.com/2022/6/13/23166028/blockfi-crypto-com-layoffs-cryptocurrency-defi-slump-halts
• Binance US sued over promotion of Luna and UST:
  https://decrypt.co/102813/binance-us-sued-over-promoting-selling-ust-and-luna
• Binance in general is under lots of scrutiny, the SEC is investigating its currency - BNB, the IRS earlier launched a probe against them:
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/us-probes-binance-over-token-that-is-now-world-s-fifth-largest

All in all, a big crash can come from either Binance or Tether's direction (or maybe USDC) - if the US govt would want to stop the use of USDT/USDC tokens - they can do it at any given moment!

Tether ‘Transparency Is Needed’ Following Terra’s UST Collapse: Analyst
https://www.coindesk.com/layer2/2022/05/24/tether-transparency-is-needed-following-terras-ust-collapse-analyst/

All in all - there is no trust in the system, and when there is no trust - there would be a crash in the price, "because markets are ruled right now by fear" (Alessio Rastani on the BBC, when the Eurozone was in troubles).

Take note it was Luna that started this downfall, and now Celsius, and if Binance becomes next then what would the future hold?

What if Tether (USDT) becomes $0.95 again (it happened when Luna crashed) and then it keeps on going south?!

No trust = Prices falling

Bitcoin is a great creation, but so was LibertyReserve, e-gold and probably others that no one has heard of ...

The system must have trust in order to function well, right now we're seeing bubbles bursting one after another, and Celsius/Luna are definitely not the last ones here.

That "repair" was costly but moving $5,000 when BTC was $25,000 (0.2 BTC) and now it's under $22,000 (less than $4,400) - we sold it at $24,000 ($200 loss) + extra 10 LTC fee to ViaBTC.

Was it worth it? It's worth the peace of mind.

Currently our faith in Bitcoin has gone downhill, the raise of interest rates + global rising costs / inflation would hamper lenders like Celsius and Tether (USDT) could be next, hopefully it won't ... but there's going to be a "financial war" between Tether, Binance and the US govt - it's already happening now. Who knows what the future holds. We hope the good side will win.