Difficulty speculations by March 1 2014
Things to take into Account:
-New much stronger ASIC miners will be hitting the network by December
-All the New people excited about Bitcoin will be throwing whatever miners they can get their hands on at the network. Even though it makes no sense.
When would you say we will hit 1,000,000,000 DIFF?
Too low, I believe at least 2,000,000,000 DIFF... Right now I have estimate 2.5 billion. It might be as low as 2.0 billion, but could easily be as high as 4 or 5 billion especially if hashfast and cointerra ship. |
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To survive, if the whole model of the citizen-miner survives, these companies are going to have to do things differently and develop non-hateful relationships with their customers. KnC seems to be leading the way. HF is working to follow. At least that's my bet.
The road to customer goodwill for Hashfast seems pretty clear to me: 1) Offer full refunds to batch 1 customers. ... They may as well do that and many on this thread would be surprised with the results. Accepting the refund means you are giving up additional 2TH for free on Feb 1st. Good luck buying those 2TH with refunded BTC for less, considering end of Jan/beginning of Feb delivery. Maybe the refund is safer way, but I bet many people would not accept refunds. They bought miners in the first place because they don't want BTC sitting in their wallets. Announcing MPP starts Oct 30th changed many things. You are giving up 1.6TH for Free, it's 4x 400GH Modules Baby Jets were ~50 BTC when they went up for sale I believe (Can't remember for sure) That 50 BTC is now $15750 - $315 Exchange price on Coinbase You could literally buy 3x KnC 500-550 November Jupiters for that and have ~1.5TH in November and you don't think that end of Jan/Beginning of Feb Delivery will get you much much more at that time? Baby jets were 61 BTC when they went on sale (including shipping). Using coinbase's exchange rate that is $20k right now. OUCH!! |
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Where are my dividends?
It's been many days now.
Time to take whatever money is left and divide it up amongst the bag holders!
He WILL be tracked down eventually. It might be too late for us to get any money back but he will be very very unhappy when he is tracked down and he will wish he had just settled with us when he had the chance.
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People should forget about dividends by now and worry about this business getting clients and start generating profits. Dividends are a secondary issue. If the shares are worth less than you would have if you had just hold your BTC, this is because the company has grown less in value compared to BTC, which is just one of the possible outcomes when you had invested in it. Had the BTC dropped and the company value not in the same proportion, you would have lost less, so in no way you can say that this company worthing much more in terms of fiat money is bad, this is completely nonsense. When you buy the stock you add another layer of risk than can both protect you from losses and reduce your gains. Supposing in a far future a stock of this company value is worth 10x less in terms of BTC, but BTC becomes worth 100x more in terms of fiat and this "100x in fiat" has half of purchasing power than it had at the beggining, it would be nonsense to say you lost money in this since you can buy more than you could before. Would you be better if you had just hold your money all this time? Yes, sure, but in no way you could know that this was the outcome of this situation. The whole thing "1.2 BTC is worth more than 1 BTC" is a lie if you consider it at different times. If today I can go to the restaurant and pay my lunch with 0.1 BTC and in 3 years the same lunch costs 0.05 BTC, then 1 BTC now is worth less than 1 BTC in three years regardless the "1=1" thing. Being against it is believing that in an opposite situation, when you have inflationary money, that "1 dollar is always 1 dollar so they are worth the same".
^^Pure nonsense. This argument has been shot with silver bullets, killed with fire & burred with a wooden stake through its heart. Yet the zombler refuses to stay down. So again: If you are holding BTC-denominated securities which are tanking, sell them & keep your money in your wallet. If BTC gains value relative fiat, you'll win more. If BTC loses value relative fiat, you'll lose less. If BTC price stays the same, the value of your coins will stay the same, while the tanking shares depreciate. Children know this. When you invest in a security using bitcoins, YOU ARE NO LONGER INVESTED IN BITCOINS. This is 100% true if you invest in a company that is not bitcoin related and holds no assets in bitcoins. This is NOT true for bitcoin mining companies who have expenses in fiat but revenue in bitcoins. Higher bitcoin value means more profits for them. Now, Neo&Bee is somewhere in the middle but they are much more like the first example. They will hold assets in bitcoin but they necessarily had to convert bitcoins into fiat to fund the development of their business. So even if the bitcoin value goes up, their valuation in terms of bitcoin goes down. You aren't invested in bitcoin anymore. You are invested in a company. Here is an example. Let's say a company raises 10,000 BTC when Bitcoin is at $100. That is $1 million. Say they convert half of that to fiat for $500k and keep the other 5,000 BTC. Say there is 1,000,000 outstanding shares. Each one would worth 0.01 BTC. Now let's say the price of bitcoin goes up to $250. The company has 5,000 BTC left which is now $1.25 million in bitcoin, plus $500,000 in cash (or assets they purchased with that cash). The company is valued at $1.75 million, or 7,000 BTC. Wait, that is LESS than the 10,000 BTC they raised. That's right, it's because they had to convert some BTC to fiat when they started. The more they converted the more their valuation in terms of BTC dropped when the price of BTC went up. Now, each share is no longer worth 0.01. It's worth 0.007 BTC. Let's say you spent $10k and bough 10,000 shares. Those shares are only worth 70 BTC now instead of the 100 BTC you spent but that 70 BTC is worth $17.5k. So you actually made $7.5k in terms of fiat. But, of course, you would have made more if you had simply held the BTC. What does this all mean? It means that if you are going to invest in a company, you must believe that the valuation of that company will increase faster than the value of bitcoin! With Bitcoin tripling in the past few months, this is very very hard to do. I still feel that Neo&Bee is a good investment, though. Why? Because their success is somewhat independent of the price of bitcoin. It's a way to diversify your investments in a way that is not directly related to the very volatile bitcoin market. It's a way to invest in bitcoin's future without simply just buying bitcoin. If Neo&Bee succeeds it will likely cause the price of bitcoin to rise as it will create more demand for bitcoin. So it also helps your bitcoin investment. |
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The blockchain.info iPhone app sends transactions without fees. Even though there is a fee setting on the blockchain.info wallet web page and I have it set to "generous" it does not seem to effect the iPhone app and the iPhone app itself has no setting!
This is really annoying and makes the blockchain.info app pretty much useless. Today I went to sell some bitcoins and after waiting a couple of hours for the transaction to be confirmed, it still hadn't been and eventually I just had to leave minus my coins but with no money. Hopefully the transaction will get confirmed by tomorrow and I'll be able to get the money from the buyer then.
Blockchain.info estimates a 20 hour confirmation time for it's transaction! This is not acceptable!
This is not the first time this has happened. I'm going to have to start carrying around a laptop now everytime I need to spend some bitcoins!
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No no no no no.
Don't use the Blockchain.info wallet app!!
It will send your transactions without a fee and it could easily take a day or more for them to arrive! And you can't cancel them in the meantime.
It is pretty much useless until this is fixed!
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mgio, how is your redemption progressing?
No word from ukyo since he contacted on Oct 28 asking if I could request a smaller amount to redeem to start. I replied saying that I would be ok redeeming 5,000 of my 25,000 shares for now. That was before the Bitfunder close was announced. I could transfer my shares to a non-US citizen and sell right now for roughly half their value. It's tempting. So my options are sell now and lose 125 BTC or hold and wait for ukyo risk losing up to all 250 BTC if he defaults. My fear is that if ukyo converted the funds raised to fiat he will have a lot of trouble gathering the cash to issue redemptions since BTC has nearly tripled since the loan was issued. Im interested in hearing about how he invested the money and what plans he has for weexchange. I wonder if he needs a software engineer. I'm will to work for free in exchange for getting my shares redeemed  . |
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Because it was started earlier and has had a greater opportunity to grow and attract users, Bitcoin has a market larger by a wide margin than all the markets of all the altcoins put together, and this makes it vastly more useful as a currency. To defeat Bitcoin, an altcoin would require not just superior technology, but such vastly superior technology as to be an advance over Bitcoin comparable to the advance Bitcoin represents over fiat currency. Furthermore, a truly great innovation would much better serve people by being incorporated into future versions of Bitcoin rather than by requiring them to switch to something else. ^ THIS. Absolutely my sentiments. THIS++ GREAT article. |
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Once again "nice living" =/= rich. Please try to stay on topic. The claim made was the "rich" pay little to nothing in capital gains taxes. That is a false statement. Poinring out that the middle class has a low capital gains tax is "proving" to me something I never disputed.
Also not sure what you mean by "beyond that you get 0% long-term capital tax rate"? If you are "beyond that" (as in more income?) you would be in the next tax bracket and thus would pay MORE not zero in capital gains taxes.
You don't seem to get it. Here are two scenarios: You make $100k a year, you have 1 million in bitcoins. You keep your job, you gradually sell off your bitcoins paying 15% long term capital gains (plus 5% state, for me, at least) every time. OR You quit your job. Your income is now 0. You sell ALL your $1 million in bitcoins. You are now RICH! You pay 0% in taxes on it! The next year you get another job making $100k. You've just paid 0% on your $1 million bitcoin investment. In scenario 1, you get roughly $800k plus $100k salary every year. In scenario 2, you get the full $1 million and your only penalty is you skip your $100k salary one year. Now imagine that instead of $1 million in bitcoins, you had $10 million. Or $20 million. Can you see now how the "rich" don't work and pay 0 taxes? |
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that would be the mother of all cups AND handles.
If you read about cup and handles, the cup must be at leas 7 WEEKS wide and can be as wide as a year or more. This cup is roughly 6 1/2 months wide so it is a pretty normal-sized cup actually. All these single-day sized cups that people like to point out are total BS. |
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You won't get anything but legalese talk about how you agreed on the 31 Dec date, and that they are in line with that date.
I speak fluent legalese. It's my mother tongue. This is plain English, not legalese: https://hashfast.com/checkout/terms-of-sale/3. DELIVERY AND QUANTITIES. Guaranteed Baby Jet Delivery Dates – Batch 1.
All of the 550 Baby Jet units from Hashfast’s first production batch are guaranteed for delivery by December 31, 2013. ^^^This is a very simple sentence, easily comprehensible to even the thickest plank in the slow reader class.^^^ There is a subject (All of the 550 Baby Jet units from Hashfast’s first production batch) and a predicate (are guaranteed for delivery by December 31, 2013). Nothing is ambiguous; no parsing is required. How stupid must one be to believe that " All of the 550 Baby Jet units from Hashfast’s first production batch are guaranteed for delivery by December 31, 2013" is legalese? It's not even written in a tiny font. There is no excuse for such misrepresentation. It's pure, fact-free FUD. Except: 1) That text was NOT there when I made my order when HashFast first started selling BabyJets. It was added LATER when they added the mining protection program. 2) It conflicts with pretty much ALL their advertising and e-mails that claim a shipping date of between Oct 20 - 30. 3) I've talked to a lawyer that specializes in consumer issues. Since the shipping date is considered ambiguous (was it Oct 20-30 or Dec 31?) a judge would have to (legally) side with the customer and he would have to give him a refund. Now that law may be hard to enforce without someone stepping up and suing HashFast, but the point is they CAN NOT deny a refund for a product they have not yet shipped. |
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Now I think that most TA is bs but at leas there is some theory behind the cup and handle pattern.
It seems to be that we have a cup formed from the peak in April and the peak we hit today.
Not surprisingly as we tested the previous high today we experienced a drop.
Now if that drop continues slowly over the next few weeks then that would be a very bullish sign for Bitcoin and we could expect to surpass the ATH and continue up within a month or so.
The alternative is the mini-crash we experienced today does not continue and bitcoin continues to rise and so the handle never forms.
Either way it's bullish for bitcoin.
Perhaps this is why TA is bs.
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They are speaking about seizing and tracing funds, how is this not an attack?
It's an attack on The Pirate Bay! They've been trying to shut it down for years, and was even successful once! Now they are complaining that since The Pirate Bay is accepting donations in Bitcoin, they can't track their bank account in order to shut them down. This is like a bank saying, "because the robbers were wearing masks, our security cameras couldn't identify who they were". In no way is the RIAA saying they are going after Bitcoin! |
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How fast have you been able to overclock them?
How much for the M-card?
Depending on your answer I may be interested in buying all 16 + the M card.
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Quote:
"RIAA executive vice president Neil Turkewitz released a statement last week detailing web businesses that are either directly infringing copyright or "profit from facilitating such theft." Bitcoin, the trade group contends, falls into the latter category".
Well then if bitcoin is a "web business" profiting from copyright infringement, why don't they go and sue bitcoin? They might... they might...  Just wait till someone tells Neil Turkewitz that bitcoin is a peer-to-peer decentralized protocol. I bet his first question will be to ask how they can Subpoena a protocol... It's not Neil Turkewitz, it's Meghan Neal, the retard who wrote the article that said that. Nowhere in the RIAA's report did it imply that they were targetting Bitcoin or that Bitcoin falls into that category. |
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Wow, did the writer of that article even READ the RIAA's damn report???!!
I am in no way a RIAA supporter, but the following paragraph is the ONLY mention of Bitcoin the RIAA made in their report:
"In April 2013, the site started accepting donations from the public by Bitcoin, a digitalcurrency, which operates using peer-to-peer technology. There are no central authority or banks involved which makes it very difficult to seize or trace Bitcoin funds. In May 2013, thesite also started accepting Litecoin, another peer-to-peer based internet currency"
The "site" they are referring to is "The Pirate Bay". They are simply mentioning that The Pirate Bay is now accepting Bitcoin donations and that it is difficulty to trace or seize them. They are in NO WAY attacking Bitcoin!
Some people need to learn to read! This kind of FUD annoys me the most!
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litecoin had its time to shine, it died with the mtgox rumors
I've been saying all along that this would NEVER happen. MtGox will NEVER trade litecoin on its exchange. |
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Disclaimer: I don't hold any Ukyo.Loan
If a man has to close a website, which brings him a lot of legal problems, probably we don't need to worry he will disappear with all the money, cause that will make his life much tougher. The only risk is that he may be bankrupt and then everything is gone. So asking for personal detail does not help much, we'd better to know his financial situation.
Personal details are useful because he might be able to disappear, at least for a time, with the money. By the time he is found, he might not have anything left to pay off his creditors. The total value of all 200,000 ukyo.loan shares is roughly $500k right now. It is possible he does not have that much money, even if he does liquidate all his assets. I'd like to know his financial situation too, although you should realize that information isn't exactly helpful as there is nothing we can do with it, at least not if you are not a verified bitfunder user. In the meantime, Ukyo has no reason to lie to us. Since bitfunder is closing, he does not have to worry about its reputation anymore. If was not able to cover all of the bond redemptions, it would make sense for him to admit it as soon as possible and give an estimate as to what percent he can cover. My guess is that he is doing everything he can to liquidate his assets in order to cover the loan and it has not come to that, at least not yet. |
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What worries me in all this is that there has been no capitulation. We all "know" that coins will go "to da moon", so some of us held through the crash, while others sold at the top, just to pick up more coins at the bottom. The point is, no one got scared off by the crash. No one really capitulated. At most people got out temporarily. And then when the price started moving up, they panicked and got back in.
No capitulation is a bad thing if we want the price to go a lot higher. Everyone who knows about coins already has coins. How will the price go any higher? Where are the bears? Everyone takes it for granted that the price will go up.
The highlighted sentence is where your assumption is wrong. Bitcoin is going up because there are new people entering the market. When bitcoin goes up there is more in the news about bitcoin causes more people to learn about it and start buying causing it to go up even more. There are still bears. They just aren't very vocal when the price is rising. |
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Everyone realizes it will have to be raised at some point. It is essential to keep it low as long as possible only raising it multiple times as it is absolutely necessary.
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