Surely this Jacques_Bittard troll shit shill job would have been with Tera beara calling the end of bitcoin (and further and more painful price corrections) during the March 2017 down to $890 - and that surely would not have been a good time to sell any decent amount of your bitcoins.
I wouldn't put the two of them in the same league. I see different levels of intellectual integrity at a bear minimum. Ooops, a BARE minimum, ehm. |
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the WO thread is the one and only. every idiot can open a new thread these days. all other threads are altcoins/ICO´s. I just hope they will not fork it (with bigger letters) and insist that the forked WO is the "real WO" thread.
Thanks to infofront for taking it over - including responsibilities and having a moderation vision that seems to have allowed for it's continued quasi-wild, wild west style, and thanks to theymos in allowing a kind of democratic transfer of ownership that seems to have been a very fucking BIG success to the forum and for the bitcoin community. Out of the real thing, sorry. I was keeping the last few precious like Ebenezer. I've got a cool new alt, though. +1 WoSMerit to JJG, wordy man in nonwordy disguise. You're much more effective and - I'll dare unusual adjectives - enjoyable to read when you dress up this way. Try it more often, if you manage. Please.  +1 WoSMerit to infofront, for the thanklessest job there is. And done brilliantly, as if from far away. |
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We're due for another smack down any time here.
Maybe https://imgur.com/a/12swo4hr sees: 2 yellow (lower) highs 4 red (higher) lows 3 9480 attempts (maybe soon to be retested) The last attempt has a different convexity. While smoldering, the foremost of the row arches his trunk and calls. Is the global formation after the descent a proper triangle? By the way, this looks like a 2hr chart. At 4hr, the pachyderms are featureless blobs. |
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I smell calm before the storm. Starting to nurse my safety short by patient scalping. I hope it gets rekt in the bud.
Rational explanation? None. But the mammoth thingy got to me, I sense them call a round of higher entropy.
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Nice to see Trump fires Tillerson a day later for saying the Russians were responsible for the UK nerve gas attack. Putin must be feeling a bit touchy about the whole thing.
And here I was thinking Tillerson was a Putin loyalist.
The Don is not that good at dealing with subordinates who aren't property, so he occasionally misjudges a folk. |
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Close up as we get ready to close the candle for the day.  And maybe a longer than daily cycle too. I see one regular/two timestretched, bitcrushed mammothlets smoldering into chaos. A new cycle begins? If so, all I've dreamed about steady Fridays, Saturdays and explicit time ranges was, well, a dream. |
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Is everyone as drunk as me?  Still sober. My brain is running wild though. I've got a serious bitcoin itch today. |
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The situation is liquid IMHO. I smell longer plays developing. I mean medium term, not "the future of bitcoin." At the moment, I feel I can expect to have no clue where the ball is until the end of March, with an important checkpoint tomorrow.
The best I can think now is HODL.
Second best, hedge with a safety net bet. Similar to a safety play in bridge, giving up some of the best case gains to achieve mitigation (or reversal!) of the worst case. It will be a loss, except if an unexpected black swan disaster comes around. Then it will be a big winning asset.
The bet would be a small but significant short position, with as high as possible an entry point. Looks like a contrarian move à la Tera-Beara, but actually if not done near the external stratosphere, in Carolina's orbit, it makes little sense (and possibly big damage). Hold the short to < 7k, maybe even 5.5k-6k. Don't close it too soon. If it turns into a losing nightmare, keep swallowing until it reaches a pre-set limit. Decide how much pain you're willing to swallow. Work out the limit now, before Carolina, unless you know you can keep a cool mind.
(I feel like mastereddie! Sorry for raving.)
EDIT -Some of you expert line-drawing types can suggest an appropriately high entry? 11.5k maybe?
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If you check the daily chart and switch on 200 ema/sma you'll see this is the spot bulls and bears are fighting hard for right now.
Very important level where we are located at the moment. Who ever wins this will decide where we are heading to the next couple of weeks.
Indeed the skirmish is turning into a long, soft battle fought on medium volume. The battleground hasn't moved at all, 9200-ish excluding 24h-48h fluctuations - that's "mammoths" in DETASO (d_eddie technical analysis, sort of). |
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Well sheeeit!!1
Bitcoin up like $50 and my whole portfolio shifted by $140 million.
Gonna hafta bend over for the IRS agin!!1 Send 'em a coupla mil extra as lube.
Already on my 8th beer and that hoss is looking mighty fine about now.
I tellya, them Russkis showed up here with their neurotoxic whatnots, this proud American'd show'em the true meaning of concealed carry.
Pussy-assed Brits. Waddaya gone do?
Sheeeit!
Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery. Clap clap, nicely done  |
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The main reason I'm bearish is because I was the most bullish I have ever been on bitcoin in my life just a few days ago and this decline took me more off guard than any thing else ever has in this market. I have never been that wrong before. I was so wrong that I actually gave the normies that asked me for advice the wrong advice for the first time ever. So I adapted. I took some of my crypto portfolio into USD and but put in a stop to prevent me from being punished too hard.
How about an insurance? A leveraged short as a hedge, built gradually and pre-calculated to liquidate at an arbitrary level of your choice. Say, 21k. Or 30k. The higher the cutoff level, the costlier the hedge of course, to guarantee similar performance at 5k. Or 3k. 1k? |
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for fuck's sake
now you have me actually seeing mammoths in the chart
What's even more fun is fractal beasties. 6 hours. Total time interval just under 1 month. We know the two small critters at the end, they're likely the tail of the next Cthulhu pangolin (the dominant animal at this scale).  As good as any TA, I promise. |
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What is happening in this thread now, I'm confused.
Same 'ol same 'ol in this thread. Bitcoin however is looking like some market movers want your cheap coins again. As was said..looks to be heading south. This was what was going on until this morning..pattern look familiar?  Indeed. I see a stream of 2-day mammoths looking forward (the final dip is the trunk). Don't know what it's called in astr... uh, in TA. Two mammoths are fairly easy to see in Toxic2040's chart. By changing the time scale you can see more. 15 minutes - lots of noise on the way down, 2 mammoths easy to spot as in Toxic's post.  30 minutes - the descent can be split in two blobs with a dip in between (think trunk).  1 hour  2 hours - 2 mammoths climbing. The first has its trunk... hm, erected, so to say, pointing forward. Two descending ones can still be spotted before them.  The best visual alignment for me is on the 1 hour chart. There appeared to be some observer affect though as now it has gone another way. I am not feeling very confident about the price right now and I am sure that is exactly what is wanted...with that in mind I will wait until friday to see which way the market is going.
That would be 2 more elephants, hairy or maybe smooth - and of course deformed along an underlying Platonic curve that we'd all like to know. EDIT: If I were a whale hitting on paranoid traders who think they're smart, I'd smash it down hard after a longish trunk in a half-descending mammoth. Say, on Friday around 13:00-15:00 UTC. That's trunk time. Not necessarily this week. Next week the trunks would be on Tue-Thu-Sat though. But the mammoths have a kind of bend in their back, like stretching cats. The loin point might be as good. Friday next week a convenient loin could happen at 02:00. |
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I'll try to consider both UP or DOWN from the viewpoint of someone who got something at stake. 'Standard View'
BTC ran up 10,000%, a massive multi-year correction is then absolutely necessary. Given the increase in infrastructure and adoption the most likely effect is a shallower, longer winter. (The more something represents the entire system the slower it moves, economies move in decades long cycles, BTC could have month long cycles starting out. Lows around -75-80% off the ATH.
'Miracle 2013 style double top'
We ran out of new suckers, that is why the price stopped going up. Double top would need:
-New even larger wave of speculators. Coinbase was the #1 app, on TV every night, major exchanges in all countries with rich speculators. The next level up requires infrastructure that is years away at best
-Belief that 100k is possible. No one will pay 20 unless they think someone will pay 40, 40 buyer needs to believe in 80 buyer coming etc. A drop to 6k erodes this
-All the stuck bagholders have to get even or accept their losses, this places a huge ask capping any rallies
I'm bullish at heart too, and this is standard view indeed. The folloiwing is also reassuring. Honestly. I know this sounds stupid but intuition. I have been staring at bitcoin charts for 8 years now. It made a very solid looking bottom with very reasonable growth coming out of that bottom, a healthy and calm retracement down to about half of that run up then further upside that broke out past the last high. It's just what bitcoin charts have looked like to me when the bottom was in in the past. It looked like textbook - people are done freaking out so therefore we can resume the more general trend that us up. And ultimately I am a bull long term. So when ever people stop freaking out and cool their heads after a mania bitcoin tends to resume the general multi year bull trend.
I hope that made some sort of sense.
But if it is true that a small minority can control the price by acting in a select mix of exchanges, we should try to figure out longer-term dynamics. The ever-hungry badger is a thing for fairy tales. He needs to rest, to digest, to heal, to reproduce - he can't eat all the time. If a whole school of sharks wants to give another serious shake on the way up, I bet they can. I'd bet small, just as a hedge. That would make for a handsome premium to pay, but a black swan (or possibly just a gray one) could become a life-changing event. "No way I can really retire until the Foundation is set up" kind of life-changing. Enriching thoughts? Bears, bulls, ratts, primates (including humans). Bugs needn't bother, since we already know their opinion on the matter. |
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I was thinking in the specific sense of having to pay a fee in Bitcoin. Possibly as a substitute for POW. I have not given it any real thought and it’s possibly full of holes, such as Sybil attacks.
Sybils willing to pay in bitcoin are OK, depending on the price:
(price < reward) ? NO_WAY # cheapskate!
(reward < price < reward + fees) ? likely_ok(reward, fees, shillprice) # fees almost free for everyone, I'm a shill!
(reward < reward + fees < price) ? likely_ok(reward, fees, shillprice) # a lottery? negative fees?
A funky alt, possibly. Might have an actual use case, even if right now I couldn't figure one for the life of me. Democratizing down the price of on-chain fees once rewards are hardly relevant? Such a funkcoin might as well exist already, for all I know. |
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Long battle at 9.2k, but with decreasing volume.
EDIT - Actually, for now it's more like a skirmish.
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Pretty normal volume on this shakeout, what do the professional watchers say?
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Oh Corny, my swingin' lady.
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You can brute force Powerball with a pen and paper. That’s what the population is doing every week.
But there is a high cost for each guess. And the reward distribution system is a mess, they tell me. |
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Well IANAL, but the fact that a contract is a scam doesn't mean it can't be a security. Or does it? Care to expand? I have no interest in cloud mining contracts so haven’t followed this one. Well I haven't followed this one either, so I was just assuming. All the cloud mining contracts I've checked out are losing deals, in the sense that you get less than you would by just buying bitcoin. And then the contract expires (while bitcoin doesn't). Maybe naming this particular contract a scam was a bit far fetched, but I wouldn't sign into it. |
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